Fat Tail Capital @FatTailCapital Twitter profile

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Costco addressing the real issues on their earnings call 🌭

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

It’s the same picture.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

A story in four acts:

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

How Twitter can become a $200B company. You're welcome, @jack . #TwitterAnalystDay

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

omg someone pooped in an elevator, a bunch of attendees unknowingly stepped in and spread it around the hotel, which is carpeted, and now the whole JP Morgan TMT Conference smells like shit #JPMTMC

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 years

Jesus Christ, lock up your borrow now. When the founder/CEO renamed his company from WeWork to We Company, he paid himself $5.9M for the trademark because his personal holding company was already called We Holdings. 👀👀

Mark Milian

@markmilian

5 years

WeWork's founder was borrowing money from the company at the same time it was paying him rent, and other curiosities from today's IPO filing

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Everyone’s portfolio in 2020:

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

As 3Q ends, I look forward to another round of the same 13-Fs with the same 100 holdings. Here's a preview of holdings by manager: Tiger Cub/80% of the performance of QQQ with 1000% the fees: AMZN BABA MSFT MA TDG NFLX MELI

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

The CEO of the SPAC that is funding Trump Media Technology Group is a guy name "Patrick Francis Orlando" whose contact info is a gmail address and an address in Wuhan, China. You. Cannot. Make. This. Shit. Up.

Ron Filipkowski

@RonFilipkowski

3 years

Trump tonight announces the launch of his new social media platform, which he is calling, “TRUTH social.”

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

11 months

Costco new CEO. How can you not love this company? “Ron is a Costco veteran, with over forty years of service to the Company, starting as a forklift driver, and subsequently serving in every major role related to Costco's business operations and merchandising activities.”

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Here are my top takeaways from the Morgan Stanley TMT conference in San Francisco this week (1/n): 🧵 👇

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 years

Microsoft Teams reaching 20 million users is complete garbage growth hacking. $MSFT added Teams to the list of Windows programs that automatically open when you start your computer for users running enterprise Office 365 w/ Azure Active Directory.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

I would just like to point out a car wash company called Mister Car Wash just IPOed at a valuation of 10x sales.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Who’s gonna tell him?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

Over the last 5 years, you would've made more money owning Best Buy than Amazon. Best Buy +484% including reinvested dividends Amazon +396%

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Visa 24% revenue growth & 70% operating margins

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

In the US, Amazon added 49M square feet of warehouses in 2020 and will add another 104M sq ft over the next 18-24 months. Thus, from 2020-22, it will build 153M in the US, more than Walmart’s entire existing US logistics network of 145M sq ft built over the last 49 years.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

I’m gonna upset all the VCs on here, but .... Sapiens is a terrible book. First third of the book is alright, good even, rest of it is just pseudo-intellectual conjecture, like a bad TedTalk. Go read Gun, Germs, and Steel instead.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

1 year

This actually tells you a lot about the culture at MS vs GS.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Every Russian oligarch Wikipedia bio: “Upon graduating from Moscow Institute of Metallurgy in 1983, he joined the Ministry of Railway as an engineer. He founded a mining company in 1990, which by 1992 had become one of the largest real estate and banking enterprises in Russia.”

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Shopify moving from asset-light to asset-heavy, while pulling back investor communication, no longer providing guidance, no more disclosure on Shop Pay, merchant count, breakout of subscription revenue splits, but “Trust us. Tobi is building a 100-year company.”

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

When 90% of Americans get the coronavirus, we'll look back & say, "Man, that was pretty dumb making all college classes 'remote' while airfare and hotels are super cheap. Who would've thought 20 yr olds don't give a fuck and just ended up traveling everywhere spreading disease."

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

NYC is a dumpster now. Please stay in the suburbs and don't come back.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

1 year

Shot. Chaser.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Jack Ma spotted in Europe, Alibaba +9% Totally normal capital markets behavior.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Stop giving advice to CEOs on how they should run their businesses. I know you think your 3 years of equity research experience at Citi gave you worldly insights into how to run a Fortune 500 technology company, but I promise you, they 💯 do not give a shit.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 months

OMG THESE LYFT MOTHERFUCKERS MADE A TYPO MEANT 50BPS MARGIN INCREASE NOT 500BPS

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Everyone reporting Reed Hastings just bought $20M of $NFLX at ~$390/share. But let's talk about how he sold $230M of $NFLX at ~$530/share before earnings on December 21.

Barron's

@barronsonline

3 years

Netflix stock has lost a third of its value this year. Co-founder and co-CEO Reed Hastings just made his first open-market purchase of the shares.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

*Logs on to $SQ Analyst Day* *Logs off*

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

My wife ordered 12 plates from Bloomingdales. 9 of them arrived broken, so they sent 9 more, and 6 of those arrived broken. At this rate, according to Zeno’s dichotomy paradox, we’ll never receive all the plates and they’ll go bankrupt from sending an infinite number of packages.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

cumrocket coin getting a shoutout on JPM macro call what a world we live in

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

MS: Bitcoin mining uses as much electricity as 1 million US homes

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

$BKNG with some of the most detailed color on travel recovery I've seen so far. 🛫 "...in Israel, where vaccination rates are the highest in the world... we quickly saw domestic bookings return to solid double-digit growth versus the same period in **2019**."

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

6 years

The worst form of thesis creep is when you invest in a car company and now you're due diligencing whether someone in Thailand is a pedophile.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Have we considered that maybe FedEx just sucks and it’s not actually macro falling apart?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 years

When your fund is called H2O Asset Management and you have liquidity issues...

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

The EU Antitrust Commission wrote a 216-page report on why your should own GOOG:

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

If you shorted Zillow on the thesis that house flipping is a terrible, unscalable, uneconomic business, you would’ve been right but still be down >100% on your short even after today and at peak down >500%. Shorting is hard.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

*STABLE STORE OF VALUE PLUMMETS AS WORLD’S 25TH LARGEST AUTOMAKER SUSPENDS ACCEPTANCE

Elon Musk

@elonmusk

3 years

Tesla & Bitcoin

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Pretty incredible that my Marcus savings account is outperforming the Fed Funds rate by a whopping 600% YTD (0.50% vs 0.07%) 🤡

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Clubhouse DAUs🤷‍♂️

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

@mims “An antenna was not even on my radar,” he says. Ironic, since radars are literally antennas.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Why do they do this? $V $MA

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Value investing had a solid 2-day run there. See you again in 5 years.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

The dichotomy between questions from podshop and LO PMs in the same meeting: Pod: Can you quantify the impact of the extra shopping days between Thanksgiving and Christmas on Q4? LO: If you had a magic lamp and a genie granted you three wishes, what would you wish for?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

To the organizers at Morgan Stanley, the food sucked. I almost chipped a tooth on the tuna steak. Did you know Keybanc provided excellent food (and functioning WiFi) at their conference down the street? They are a retail bank from Ohio. Be better next time.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

I cannot believe rappers, pornstars, that FB product manager, and Elon all talking about the same stock plus an in-depth WSJ profile on a guy trading from his basement while wearing a red headband signaled the peak in that stock.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Holy shit…

Никита Сергеевич

@ABTOM3XAHUK

3 years

Воздушный хулиган.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

For the nerds: an A+ sell-side report footnote.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

End/ Apologies if you thought this was going to have actual serious insights.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

6 years

Not buying NFLX at $350 in June because it was already up 80% YTD but buying Netflix now at $350 because it's down 14% in a day (even though more negative information is revealed). The anchoring bias is real.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

You, a hardworking PM doing due diligence day and night: up 25% YTD My relative, heard Buffett owns electric carmaker BYD, mistakenly buys Boyd Gaming (also BYD), realizes mistake months later, decides to "fuck it and just keep it": up 60% YTD

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Is it just me or are hedge fund names getting worse and worse? X-Cubed Capital, CenterBook Capital, Flow State Investments, MY.Alpha Management? I guess we ran out of rocks, rivers, trees, and words evoking safety? This is becoming like millennials naming their children.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Nasdaq back to 25x forward earnings. Nice quarter, guys. Everything's fine.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

$MSFT

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Farfetch, a luxury e-com technology disruptor, is growing slower than LVMH,a sleepy $400B, 160 year old French conglomerate.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

1 year

Guess which one is French? Employees Ubisoft: 20,700 Activision-Blizzard: 13,000 EA: 13,400 Take-Two: 11,600 LTM Bookings Ubisoft: $1.9B Activision-Blizzard: 8.7B EA: 7.4B Take-Two: 5.3B

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Why is searching for emails in Outlook a worse experience than searching for information across the entire Internet?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

Revenue growth?

IBM

@IBM

7 years

IBM scientists observe phenomenon previously thought to only occur hundreds of light years away

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Microsoft doing billions in M&A without a peep from regulators while FB faces regulatory scrutiny over tiny deals like acquiring a meme generator like Giphy.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

How they teach Prisoners' dilemma at Goldman Sachs

Joe Weisenthal

@TheStalwart

3 years

Wow! Great read from @sridinats and @DonalGriffin1 on how the major banks held a call with each other in the middle of last week to try to do an orderly unwind of Hwang's position, but the talks collapsed and anarchy ensued with Nomura/CS holding the bag

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 months

Every P72 PM reading this as they continue to hold weekly Sunday calls with Stevie

Bloomberg

@business

5 months

Billionaire Steve Cohen said he expects that more businesses will move to a four-day work week, one of the reasons he’s made investments in golf.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

RH has among the longest lead times in a long lead time industry. Anyone who’s ever followed industrials or semis knows the shortest lead time guys see the downturn first. RH is just finally seeing what everyone else in home furnishings has already been seeing.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Remember when ibuyers were valued at 5x sales? Like you buy a $1M house and sell it for $1M at zero margin, recognize $1M in “revenues” and markets were like yup, slap 5x sales on that bitch, congratulations Sir, you have created an enterprise worth $5M dollars…

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

It's upsetting how quickly 56 points of pure alpha can just disappear overnight. Shit really got fucked up.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Stop eating the apple strudels and hit the gym, fatties. The pandemic has not been kind to some of you. Maybe you should’ve actually bought a Peloton for yourself while you were yolo-ing into the shares at $80 in 4Q.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

$SNAP earnings tonight

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

6 years

I know no one on FinTwit ever loses money but... I'm long FB and short SVU. Hope you're having a great day.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 years

If you don't have legal fines as a permanent line item on your income statement, are you really even a great business? $FB

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

1 year

$META

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

$PYPL - A lot of incentives to buy a bunch of shit to reach Revenue/FCF CAGRs (not per share!) without creating any value for shareholders

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Lol fuck off “Bic CFO says ChatGPT is a tailwind for pens”

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

*VALUE STOCKS RETREAT AS INVESTORS REALIZE THEY PREFER GOOD BUSINESSES THAT GROW RATHER THAN AIRCRAFT LESSORS, CANCER STICK MAKERS, BANKS THAT STEAL FROM THEIR CUSTOMERS

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Summary: Buzzfeed intentionally creates viral divisive content, then calls Facebook to express concern their viral divisive content was too viral and divisive.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

probably his most important contribution to society tbh

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

If someone’s not guiding, stop asking in 10 different ways “conceptually how should we think about”/“provide color”/“double-click on” the “cadence” of EBITDA. Think of better questions to ask.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

My 5 yr old daughter is really into STEM. This morning, she asked me, “Daddy, since transistor gate lengths have not actually been getting smaller since 28nm, and 10nm and 7nm are just marketing terms, why doesn’t Intel just rename its 10nm process to 7nm?” So proud🤗 #30Under30

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

I don’t know much about valuation, but this Toast valuation seems to imply the POS in each restaurant is worth more than each restaurant itself.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

LOL WHAT THE FUCK Uber moving up their earnings call to the morning because of Lyft earnings move. What kind of reactionary clown show organization is this? I have never seen this before.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

I'll bite. The first statement may be factually correct, but I disagree with this take. Half of Google's fortress ecosystem was built or accelerated via M&A. Home run deals: DoubleClick/Semantic Labs/AdMob, Keyhole/Where2, Postini, Android, YouTube, Waze

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

The more people panic about coronavirus, the more their behaviors change such that it slows the spread. The Europe travel ban, NBA, Tom Hanks, etc. all help with increasing awareness and slowing the spread. Reflexivity exists in life, as in investing.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 months

Equity L/S goldilocks consensus longs and shorts all working.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Costco was keeping this in their back pocket this entire time for when they lapped more difficult comps.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

7 years

FANG is so 2017. 2018 is all about BANANAS. Booking (r.i.p. Priceline) Amazon Netflix Adobe Nvidia Activision Salesforce

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

To the LOs, I know you’re just here for the free breakfast burritos, but read a transcript for god’s sake. Stop asking about something management spent an hour addressing at their analyst day last month.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

6 years

The sheer amount of startup founders/VCs who only tweet pithy motivational drivel is breathtaking.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

I found an arbitrage opportunity. I was going to buy a sausage egg biscuit for $3.99, but noticed you can just get the sausage biscuit for $1.89 and an egg biscuit for $1.79, or $3.68 total. Do I own any value stocks? No. Does this make me a value investor? Absolutely.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

$FB grew ad revenues by $8B in the quarter. $SNAP $TWTR and $PINS combined did $7.9B in total revenues in 2020.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Stop dominating meetings. Ask a question and get back in line. I know it’s a “4-on-1” that turned into a 10-on-1 because P72 brought 7 people for their 1 seat, but have some common decency.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

A story about govt waste and a long pitch on $LMT $NOC $RTX and $HII: While I like to joke about the F-35, this is about the Zumwalt-class destroyer program, the Navy’s cool but expensive next-gen stealth destroyer that can’t shoot, isn’t very stealthy, and doesn't float well.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

✅ Raising prices ✅ Losing subs ✅ Revs growing high single digits ✅ Bitching about password sharing Is this a growth company or a cable company?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

3 years

Why doesn’t PayPal just go out and buy eBay?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 years

I just realized that WeWork's original "community-adjusted" EBITDA adds back G&A and S&M. I'm collectively disappointed that none of us fintwit meme trolls came up with any EBITDAGASM jokes in 2019. Be better next time.

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

5 years

*MARKETS RESUME SELLOFF AS ROBINHOOD COMES BACK ONLINE *ROBINHOOD ACCOUNT HODLERS DUMPING STOCK TO MOVE MONEY TO ETRADE *ROBINHOOD USERS NOT AWARE YOU CAN TRANSFER SHARES TO OTHER BROKERS WITHOUT SELLING

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Momo TMT PM (mostly T, very little MT) whose drawdowns resemble TQQQ but is richer than you due to their massive long/short factor mismatch but you are absolutely not bitter because you are investing the "right way": DDOG FSLY ZM COUP OKTA CRWD TWLO

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Can we talk about how stupid it is that FB now trades at the same EBITDA multiple as Viacom?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

4 years

Does anyone else find themselves questioning their own long holdings more and more? Like, this valuation is getting kind of stupid, but... could it get more stupider?

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Fat Tail Capital

@FatTailCapital

2 years

Also, go get a haircut. We know you’re stressed out and down 20-40% YTD because you tripled down on the dip. That doesn’t mean you should stroll into meetings looking like white Jesus in a Patagucci vest.

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