Tanner DeHart @FR8Professor Twitter profile

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

3 year old truck prices have fallen $55,000 since their peak a year ago. A $140,000 truck is now worth $85,000. On a 5 year 6% interest truck payment, only $25,000 has gone towards principle so far. Those loans are now upside down by $30,000. Defaults would be catastrophic.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Yikes! 3 year old truck prices fall another $10,000 on average in May. A $140,000 truck 14 months ago, is now worth $77,000. Almost half its value. Meaning all those loans that were taken out with $0 down 6% interest on a $140,000 Semi are now $33,000 underwater. Time to buy?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

This is a problem! 3 year old truck prices fall another $6,000 on average in June. Those trucks selling for $140,000 last year, are now worth $71,000. Half its value! Meaning all those $0 down loans that were taken out 15 months ago on a $140,000 Semi are now $40,000 underwater.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

11 months

Convoy - Raised $980 Million. Negative Cash Flow. ❌ Uber Freight - Raised $1.5 Billion. Negative Cash Flow. Transfix - Raised $85 Million. Negative Cash Flow. There are plenty others. Its going to get worse.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

The Trucking Industry is losing over 300 Carriers Per Week! The Average Net Change in Trucking Authorities has been negative every week outside of just a few since Nov of 2022. There are currently 348k total available carriers, down from a peak of 390k when this decline started.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

Truckload Rejection rates broke above a crucial 5% level today. If this can hold through July 4th, we will see continued momentum. LAX, ONT, ATL, DAL are already in the 6-7% range. 1 hurricane sends this into a frenzy. Gulf coast markets are already in the 12%’s due to produce.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

US Import Shipments have sky rocketed the 2 weeks post July 4th. Just hit another fresh 5 Year High. This is a 7 day moving average of the number of BOL's clearing the ports. 78,000 daily shipments. A almost 75% increase YTD. Truck Market recovery is on the horizon.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

I believe a recovery is in sight. Truckload Tender Volume(Blue) is up 20% since its low in Feb 2023, while the amount of Carriers Available(Pink) is down 10% since its peak in Sept 2022. The Market is still in the shippers favor, but the end is near. The gap is closing.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

West Coast continues to heat up. Rejection rates getting close to breaking 6% for the first time since March 22'. Some spot rates out of LAX and PHX have recently jumped 20%+. Most notably PHX to DEN jumping 60% to over $3.70 per mile.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

The gap between Contract Rates and Spot Rates is closing. Today marks a new low of a $.47 split between them. If we reach ~$.30 split and hold, that would signal the end of the market cycle. The way Spot Rates are trending since April, we could see the market flip by Oct.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Truckload rates have fallen so far that its now only 8.78% cheaper to ship freight on Rail versus Truckload. That is a new cycle low for this metric. Rail rates are also down 20% YTD.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 month

US Import Shipments just hit a all time high this week. This is a 7 day moving average of the number of BOL's clearing the ports each day. 86,000 daily shipments. A 95% increase YTD. Future Order Volume also remains strong, huge sign for a 2H truck market recovery.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Truckload Spot Market floor couldn't hold. Fell below over the weekend, 7 day average at $2.20 with daily average at $2.19. Next level of resistance would be $2.09. Rejections are also back down below 3%.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

June Trucking Market Update 🧵 Outbound Truckload Demand falls below 2018 levels in June. With consumer spending topping out and less overall freight in the market, less truck load request are being sent out. Holidays this year have failed to create any upside, July 4th up next.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Transportation Market(Green) leads the Macro Economy(Blue). We are in for a whirl.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

Truck Drivers, I have an idea and need your help/opinion. If I were to buy a 5 acre lot off Exit 11 on i75 in Chattanooga and pave it and turn it into paid truck parking, what amenities/services would you expect? What are some absolutely HAVE to have versus NICE to have’s?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Spot Rates have fallen 40% since their peak in Dec 2021. 1000 mile runs that paid $3500 now pay $2100. Cost to operate a truck has remained elevated with fuel increasing 14% in the same time frame. More capacity is at risk of operating in the red as this continues.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

US Import Shipments just hit a 5 Year High. This is a 7 day moving average of the number of BOL's clearing the ports. 70,000 daily shipments. A almost 60% increase YTD.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 month

Contract Truckload Rates hit a 3 year low of $2.19 per mile linehaul. Rates have fallen nearly 30% since their peak in Mar 22'. I expect to see a increase in carriers exiting the market and rejections start to climb again. Many drivers are operating at a lose in this environment.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

Something’s brewing, I can feel it and I can see it in the data. Daily inbound BOL’s at the ports has always been my first go to, to understand what’s next for the Truckload Market. Daily inbound shipments have increased nearly 25% above its moving average and are holding👀

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

April Trucking Market Update 🧵 Outbound Truckload Demand remains at a 4 year low for this time of year. While down 15% YOY, Its climbed 500 basis points in the last 2 weeks due to a pick up in activity at the ports and slight increase in rejections. Likely just some seasonality

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Tough weekend for trucking. Saw several post about there not being any freight on the boards Thursday and Friday leading into Easter. Spot Rates dropped $.05 cents over the weekend leading into Monday. Now at $2.25 a mile. Largest single day drop since we have started tracking.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

It is now cheaper to ship a load cross country from LAX to MIA Over The Road(Green) then it is to ship it on the Rail(Blue). Truckload($6,338) versus Rail($6,392). Rail is historically much cheaper then a truck, much slower and less convenient.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

Doubt the market if you want to. But this industry rides on momentum and sentiment. Its never one thing that shifts the cycle, its always a storm of events that are catalyst for trucking within a short time. It is very possible we see Truckload Rejections at 8-10% by October.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

Expect US Import data to continue to climb. Inbound Orders have taken off since mid May and these orders take 45-60 days to reach a US port and clear customs. We are already at almost all time highs for imports, imagine what they will be when these orders clear in 60 days.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

DOT Blitz has come and gone, that flurry of demand was a hopeless dream. We hit a 4 year low in Outbound Truckload Demand for a Memorial Day. We are now 8% away from the levels we were at when the world shutdown.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

11 months

10 Rounds of funding, 50 Investors and $928 Million Dollars later. The age of “Digital Freight Brokerage” is gone.

Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

@FreightAlley

11 months

I’ve spoken with over a dozen folks in banking about the current state of freight brokerage. They all agree - we are on the cusp of an extinction level event for high growth freight brokers. I dove into what’s happening this evening in an article.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Only 9300 Class 8 trucks were ordered in April. That's 5000 less then in March. Demand for a brand new truck will continue to fall with how far rates and used truck prices have fallen. This will also impact truck manufactures order logs as some will cancel previous orders as well

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Transport companies make most of their money in the contracted market where its common practice to be locked into a 12 month agreement. Those agreements from 12 months ago at the height of the market are expiring and the average contract is now going for almost 20% less.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

$144,000 to $67,000. What a mess. If you are looking to purchase, now would be your time. Might have some pain for a while, but if market flips in 2024 you will be sitting pretty.

Luke Falasca

@LukeFalasca

1 year

3-Year old Used truck prices have fallen below their 2019 highs or down ~53% from their highs last year. With carriers exiting the market at a record pace as the market remains challenging, this is driving prices of those used trucks lower and lower.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Went to lunch with a Brokerage yesterday that told me since April 1st they have required a Authority to be in business for a minimum of 12 months to book with them. They have not had a load double brokered since then. Prior to April 1st this was happening several times a week.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

West Coast continues to heat up. Rejection rates about to cross above 3% for the first time since Q4 of last year. Most spot rates out of LAX and PHX have increased $.40+ per mile since early May. Most notably PHX to DEN jumping 60% to over $3.35 per mile.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Truckload Spot Market rates break above its 100 day average over the weekend climbing to $2.24 a mile. @SONAR_FW 28 Day Spot Market Forecast showing a slow increase to $2.30 by August 28th. That would be a 8.5% increase since its low in May.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

I spoke to several carriers this week to get a sentiment on the coming months. One topic that concerned me, sounds like Aug 1st is when the new contract rates for a decent amount of large shippers goes into affect, including names like Walmart, Home Depot, Costco & more. /1

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

11 months

Diesel is up 22% since July 1st. Russia and SA will continue to purposely cut production until Oil reaches their $100 target. Meaning more pressure ahead. On a 5 mile per gallon Truck, that is a $.16 Per Mile Cost Increase to drivers. Truck rates are flat during that same time.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Just finished “The men who built America” on YouTube, hands down one of the best series I’ve ever watched. Learned more in 12 hours then I ever did in history class. Didn’t realize how much of Rockefeller, Carnegie and Vanderbilts legacy there is around our daily lives.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

Spot Rates hit new low today $2.49 a mile. Truckload demand is flat so far this year. No economic news till the 13th. Feels like the calm before the storm.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

18 days

Rail Volume in the United States just hit a 5 Year High. With new import orders growing, rail lines sending record containers towards ports and a looming possible Canadian rail strike, I expect shippers to start shifting volume to truckload soon. Stay tuned.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Important metric to watch. Savings rate between Rail and Truckload reaches almost 5 year low. Meaning its only 9% cheaper to ship rail on average versus truck. That 9% is no longer enough to justify the service level. Shippers will transition some rail business over to truckload.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Logistics Manager Index indicating a large drop in Warehouse Pricing growth in May. Above 50 still indicating pricing growth but has severally slowed from its peak of 90. Warehousing capacity exploded during COVID similar to truckload and is setting up for its own Boom/Bust cycle

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

How much capacity is in the market? Since the height of the trucking market in August 2021, Demand(Orange) has fallen 35%. In that same time period from August of 2021 to May of 2023 we have added 70,000+ new fleets to the market(Blue). This is where barriers to enter can hurt.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Trucks have flooded into PHX the last 10 days. The recent spot market surge has caused outbound rates to jump 30%+ . No indication as to if this is short lived or not yet. Rejections have jumped 1.25% since May but still only at 1.50% total. Weird Market.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Those who locked in a 12 month contract rate at the peak of the market a year ago on 5/22/2022 at $2.97 Average Line Haul are in the process of rebidding those same contracts for this year, but the average has now fallen $.50 per mile to $2.47. This could be the back breaker.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

May Trucking Market Update 🧵 Outbound Truckload Demand remains stagnant YTD. Has tried to break above the white line 3 times and failed. Consumer spending still near all time highs, that money has shifted to services with product truckload demand down 35% since its COVID peak.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

Outbound Truck Request are up 20% since Jan 23’. Rejections of those tenders have remained unchanged, which means there is more total available freight entering the market. All it takes is 1 weather event for this market to flip. We could easily see ~10%+ rejections again soon.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

It is now over $1000 cheaper to ship freight on a Truck($5136) cross country from LAX to MIA than it is on Rail($6147). Rail is historically cheaper due to slow transit and less visibility. I thought going to Florida demanded a premium?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

3 months

Yikes! Truckload Contract Rates just hit a 3 year low of $2.20 per mile! Falling 27.5% since their peak in March of 2022. July RFP season is right around the corner. Im hearing more and more shippers are considering moving back to a longer term contracts for transportation rates.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

We talk about rates dropping a lot, but what we should be talking about is the devaluation of OTR as a service level. It is now only 7% more expensive to ship on a dedicated Truck versus Rail. Are all the benefits you provide as a truckload provider truly worth only 7% more?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Have van contract rates fallen to fast? Stalled out at $2.40 line haul for almost 60 days now. Is this a sign we are getting to the end, or just a pause before those big contracts go live Aug 1st. Rate split between Spot and Contract still sitting at $.50+

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

March Trucking Market Update 🧵 Outbound Truckload Demand is at risk of falling to a 5 year low. Not that there is that much less freight in the market, but shippers no longer have to tender loads more then once to get it covered. Well, they do 3.57%, see next.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Truckload Spot Rates have now held a 100 day average of $2.23 per mile. Had a small spark going into the holiday and now cooling off about to retest that floor. Could this LTL mess turn things around and have a effect on the truckload market? And in what direction?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

June's LMI Report was bullish for Trucking. Transportation Capacity decreased to 50, headed towards deterioration, and Transportation Prices increased further to 61, continuing to grow. Historically when these inverse like this, it signals a recovery.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 months

FEMA has been authorized to spend $49 Billion & POTUS desperately needs a win to say he deployed it. If you are in a rig, go get that bread but please stay safe. I fully expect Spot Rates and Rejections to continue to rise next week post July 4th if this storm lands in TX.

Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

@FreightAlley

2 months

Beryl's projected path continues to move north into South Texas. There will be a large response from the State of Texas and FEMA to position hurricane relief loads.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Ocean carriers make a move! The spot price for a container from China to US West jumped 72% this week from a daily average of $1000 to $1723. This might seem like a big jump for a few days and it is, but this lane was moving for over $20,000 at some points during COVID.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Inbound TEU Order Volume has climbed 60% since it bottomed in February. This seems like a anomaly considering demand is slowing, I believe this is just a slight recovery from the bottom back to stabilization not a signal for strength. Port activity is still slowing.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Truckload Rejections hit a 3 Month high of 3.35%. With West Coast and TX leading the way, can we get to 5% before the end of summer?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Average Length of Haul falls to 580 miles. Average Spot Market rate is $2.20, that's $1275 a load on average. How many loads a week do you have to complete to break even?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Is this the bottom? Spot market has held a $2.22 average for 67 days since April 9th. Its lowest point was $2.13 on May 7th. Today its at $2.25 and with rejections rising heading into July, our forecast is showing a $2.32 average through the holiday. How's that for fireworks.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

11 months

Was not expecting Convoy to be the first to fall. They have raised a LOT of money. That kind of volume ultimately helps the big boys capture more market share. Wouldn’t be surprised if you see the letters CHRW/TQL all over the load boards this week.

WHAT THE TRUCK?!?

@FWwhatthetruck

11 months

Following the news about @convoyteam cancelling all loads, @FreightWaves CEO & founder @FreightAlley stopped by the show today to break down what happened.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Diesel breaks below $3.80 for the first time since Jan '22. Now down $2.05 per gallon since its peak. On a 3000 mile week, that's $1025 back in the drivers pocket. If trend continues we could see $3.00 per gallon by December.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

Contracted Line Haul Rates continue to fall. Approaching $2.50. Brokers are getting aggressive. This will continue without a resurgence in demand. Load Rejection rates also fell to a new recent low of 3.25%

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Truckload Spot Rates could soon have true momentum behind them. The white line represents RSI, or the relative strength of a move up or down. Anything above 50 represents true strength in a move. The RSI for Spot Rates hit 47 leading into the holiday. Up from 20 on 5/7/2023.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

July Trucking Market Update 🧵 Outbound Truckload Demand showing signs of life after a 9 month stretch of practically flatlining. OTVI crossed above 11,250 today on the @SONAR_FW index, 14% increase since February. We have not seen these levels since Nov 22'.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

TX is on the move as well. Outbound rejections have increased to over 5% since early May.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

With Oil falling to $66 a barrel, we will continue to see a decline in the Diesel price paid at the pump. If the current trend continues we could see $3.50 per gallon by July 1st. On a 1000 mile run, that would be $400 back in the drivers pocket since its recent peak in Nov.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Is this the bottom for the Trucking market? For the 1st time in a long time, @SONAR_FW 28-Day Forecast has surpassed the current days average. Today's average is $2.23 a mile, with a forecasted bottom of $2.14 on April 26th and then a increase to $2.28 by May 17th.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

3 year old truck price falls below $100K. Still roughly 25k higher than historical peak in 2014 pre COVID. Imagine trying to come into this market and pay $2,000 a month for your truck. With Spot Rate pay at $2.50 a mile before operating cost, how can a driver front that bill?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

27 days

Led by the recent increase in Import demand into the US the last few months, the average price to ship a 40' Ocean Container has reached a new 2 year high. Climbing from $2400 to $5400 in just 3 months. Shipping lines order books are over flowing and transit times are increasing.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Southeast Reefer Rejection rates are on the move. Savannah - 28%, Columbia - 20%, Tifton - 17%, Jacksonville - 9%, Tallahassee - 9%. Get that produce $ while it last. Total reefer volume has hardly moved, so its all hitting the spot boards.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

10 months

Took me right back to 2008! T.I was awesome @ F3 tonight! New high on the PAVI index. @FreightWaves & @jbhunt360 know how to throw a party!

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

With fuel cost continuing to fall and what seems to be a lack of produce season, Freightwaves 28 Day Spot Forecast puts rates at $2.09 a mile by April 24th. These transportation Q1 earnings calls in April will be interesting.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

In my opinion, this is when we will see large sums of capacity exit the market

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

If the Spot Rate floor holds with upward momentum into the summer, could see $.20 split by 2024. Contract Line Hauls(Blue) will continue to fall slowly as brokers fight for volume and spot rates(Orange) will rise as capacity exits the market and we get a increase in rejections.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

Truckload Demand(Blue) and Credit Card Balances(Green). Last time we were in this type of Demand environment was early 2019. We are now back to those same levels in Demand, but Credit Balances are much higher and climbing. Very different setup. /1

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

@lets_truck Brand new Class 8 Truckload orders are falling as well from the top 5 manufacturers. Which means you might start to finally see some fresh trucks on the lots again. Which was the reason for the used prices to climb in the first place. Used trucks have more room to fall.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

Truckload Spot Rates hit new recent low of $2.41 over the weekend. Demand still unchanged so far this year. Where is the bottom??

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

We are down to just 2 markets with at least 6% rejection rates and at least 1% market share. That list was 8 just a few weeks ago. Baltimore and Grand Rapids, hanging on by a thread. Where can you go in this type of market and not get hung out to dry?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Logistics Managers Index(Blue) is a monthly survey to test the sentiment of the current market. Interestingly, at the bottom of the market March 2020 the sentiment was at a score of 38 with spot rates at $1.55 a mile. As of March that sentiment is at a 36 while rates are at $2.23

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

The volatility in this current truckload cycle is opening lots of doors for regulation to find its way back into our industry. If larger carriers go under, banks have to sell trucks at losses and driver pay falls below a livable wage. The Federal government will step in.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Where's produce season? Reefer contract rejections at a new low this month, dropping below pandemic levels. Spot market activity is dormant and market share is down for the the month of April in all 3 major markets in Florida.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Spot Rates are settled in at $2.22 since April 14th. That is the longest consolidation we have seen in quite awhile. Freightwaves 28-Day Forecast is projecting a $.23 increase by May 29th. Increased port activity, rail savings rates falling and some seasonality are the drivers.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

If this chart doesn't expose the Fraud that's happening in the trucking market idk what does. No chance there's truly a record high Fleets for Hire(Blue) while Rates(Green) has fallen this past year. These scammers make it 100x harder for honest drivers to make a living.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Largest organization in the world has spent $3.14 Trillion this year and has made $2.05 Trillion. Net loss of $1.09 Trillion YTD. Currently pays 5.25% interest to borrow money, spends $800 billion a year on Tanks, Ships & Weapons and their stock is up 8% YTD. Something seems off?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

First lane I have seen that I monitor where spot rates have climbed through NEW contracts that are paying higher on the spot market. PHX to CO by $.20 per mile. I'm sure there are other lanes out there, this is just one I monitor often due to its volatility.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

That’s billions in transportation spend combined. The average line haul last Aug 1st was $2.80, by the time we get to Aug it will be somewhere in the $2.30 range. Meaning the average contract load for those giant shippers will be paying $.50+ less.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Inbound Ocean shipments(Yellow) has increased 20% since post CNY in February. Not all of these convert to truckload when they arrive, but interestingly enough Outbound Tender Volume Index(Blue) crossed above 11,000 this past week. A level it has not seen since November 22'.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

It’s awesome working for a CEO thats’ first priority when sh*t hits the fan is his employee’s. Appreciate you @FreightAlley , I know this weekend was rough. And shoutout to the BOD!

Craig Fuller 🛩🚛🚂⚓️

@FreightAlley

1 year

All of our money is held in overnight sweep accounts at SVB. We never worried about deposits evaporating, but the failure of the bank meant we couldn't access systems to get our hands on funding for payroll. One of our board members stepped up and fronted the $1MM we needed to

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Please Advise - On A Beach

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

Quick Math. Average length of haul is at 599 miles(Blue). Average rate per mile is at $2.38(Green). Perfect week your getting 4 of these loads, that's (599x2.38x4) = $5702.48. $1542.55 of that is Fuel How far can you stretch the remaining $4159.93?

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Contract Rates are starting to catch Spot. New cycle low today at $2.38 a mile. Split between them is $.57 as of this morning. A pop in Spot Rates would significantly speed up the market cycles end. Spot Market has been flat since April 9th though. Holidays have failed to help.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

With median new home price of $470k & Average 30 Yr. Fixed rates at 6.65%, no wonder Housing Starts have fallen 20% since their highs in May. Imagine how many cancelations are on builders books. Which one of these gives in first, Rates or Prices? #Freightwaves #HighFrequencyData

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Diesel at the pump continues to fall, new recent low today of $4.12 per gallon. That's now $1.75 below its peak in June of 2022. If your truck gets 7 MPG that's $.25 per mile back in your pocket. Current regression puts us at $3.50 by late August.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Contracted Line Haul Average just broke below $2.50 a mile. Current regression puts us at $2.25 by Sept if trend continues. If the Spot Market has truly bottomed this will help reduce the rate spread and eventually lead to increased rejections by year end. Current spread is $.87.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Over the last 5 years, LTL contract rates climbed 135% before peaking in March 2023. Since then it has fallen over 20%. @FedEx reported Tuesday siting, "The quarter’s results were negatively affected by continued demand weakness and cost inflation,"

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Interestingly, @SONAR_FW 28 day Forecast has a possible bottom at $2.10 late April(Green). This might be due to the projected rise in fuel costs versus being a market shift. April will still be brutal with carriers leaving the market, I expect to see a goliath fall fairly soon

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

How low can we go? If you missed yesterday's show of #WithSONAR here is a clip of @LukeFalasca , @tonymulvey & I diving into @FreightWaves new high frequency forecasting data. #Freightwaves #HighFrequencyData

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

2 years

Inbound TEU's hit a low today. Now below pre pandemic levels. Down 60% from its highs in May 21'. Can't be good for truckload volume.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Diesel at the pump breaks below $4.00 a gallon this morning to $3.98. It has now fallen $1.90 per gallon since its peak in COVID. On a 1000 mile in a 7 MPG Truck that's $270 back in you pocket. Current regression would be $3.05 by the end of the year.

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Please Advise @lostisreed @LOSTFR8_

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Tanner DeHart

@FR8Professor

1 year

Outbound Truckload Demand tried to reach a new high this week for the year but immediately bounced off if it. We usually get some upward momentum leading into Memorial Day which I expect us to see this year. I Post holiday will give us some further insight for the summer.

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