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Josh Putnam Profile
Josh Putnam

@FHQ

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Political scientist and consultant specializing in delegate selection rules, presidential campaigns and elections. Founder of FHQ Strategies, LLC.

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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
2 years
Introducing FHQ Plus
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
In-person absentee voting starts in MN tomorrow (first state) 12 days until the 1st presidential debate 20 days until the VP debate 28 days until the 2nd presidential debate 35 days until the 3rd presidential debate 47 days until Election Day
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Idaho Democrats Announce Shift from "Unwieldy" Caucuses to State-Funded Presidential Primary for 2020
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
There will be a significant decrease in the number of caucuses in the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination process. If you're keeping track at home, there were 14 Democratic caucus *states* in 2016. 9 of those 14 have made efforts toward primaries for 2020 already.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
Harry's right that Biden is in range of 400 EVs -- right now -- but also that there is a long way to go in this race.
@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
4 years
Biden right now is ahead or down by a point in states containing over 400 electoral votes. He's also up 10 pts in national polls. If that was the result (& the piece points out why it may not be), it would be the largest win for a Dem since LBJ in 64.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
CNN has called Missouri too close to call. Other outlets are throwing it in Biden's column.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
CO, ME & MN all made the caucus-to-primary switch for 2020 in 2016. UT added funding for a presidential primary option in 2017. ID Dems have now voted to switch to a primary.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
I mean, I suppose this is one way to interpret these polls. But Biden gained in four of the six battlegrounds (and nationally) since the last wave of Change Research polls in early August. FWIW.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
This is a fantastic point. Superdelegate endorsers of Harris are now free to shop around anew. Where if anywhere they go -- especially if in tandem -- may provide us and voters with a pretty clear signal.
@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
5 years
Harris had a slew of endorsements from CA... Also, she was the only candidate besides Biden to pick up a number of CBC endorsements. Be interesting to see where those go.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Here's a fun poll out of [Super Tuesday *primary*] Minnesota.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Percentage of remaining delegates needed to get to 1237: Trump 53% Cruz 59% Rubio 70% Kasich 75% #caucussaturday
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 months
Here's the thing: The rules are secondary to the pool of people actually making those decisions. The delegates. The vast vast majority of them are not only Biden-pledged delegates, but have been reviewed and basically handpicked from those who filed by the Biden campaign. 1/
@DaveDulio
Dave Dulio
4 months
Question for @FHQ , who really knows the rules of noms. Obs lots of talk about replacing Biden. What do the rules say? If the rules make it hard, can’t the Dems just change the rules? These aren’t laws. They are internal party rules & if the rules were broken, so what? Who'd sue?
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
#InvisiblePrimary This isn't insignificant. A Harris endorsement by 1) a CBC member and 2) someone out of state. Important constituency signal plus a break in the *mostly* home state endorsement trend in 2019. #EndorsementPrimary
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
5 days until the South Carolina primary 8 days until Super Tuesday 15 days until ID, MI, MS, MO, ND & WA 22 days until the St. Patrick’s Day primary (FL, IL, OH) 64 days until the Acela primary (NY, PA, etc) 103 days until the Virgin Islands caucuses
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
7 years
Where was the rigging again? In the rules finalized in 2014? In the JFA that both Clinton & Sanders signed in 2015?
@yashar
Yashar Ali 🐘
7 years
WOW. Elizabeth Warren just told @jaketapper that she believes that the DNC/Primary situation was rigged for Hillary Clinton.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Those last two (HI & WY) may not realistically get there for 2020, but even if they don't and the other seven do, that represents a 50% reduction in the number of caucus state from 2016 to 2020. That number always shifts cycle over cycle, but that is a *big* shift.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
Let's try this again but with an apples to apples comparison of likely voters. Blue wall state polls from YouGov/UW this morning: MI: Biden +10 PA: Biden +8 WI: Biden +9 A month ago (in that series of polls) it was: MI: Biden +6 PA: Biden +4 WI: Biden +4
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
2 years
This not endorsing Biden thing and picking and choosing spots to oppose the president is straight from the Manchin playbook. He did the same thing in 2012 -- another year he was up for reelection -- when he skipped out on Obama's convention in Charlotte.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Folks are asking about Buttigieg suspending rather than withdrawing and the impact that might have on any reallocation of statewide delegates. A couple of things: 1) The rules say that reallocation occurs when someone is "no longer a candidate at the time of selection."
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
#InvisiblePrimary It seems to me that the *direction* of these calls is not being emphasized enough here. O'Rourke is *fielding* them, not *placing* them to Obama hands in early states.
@CNBC
CNBC
6 years
Beto O’Rourke’s team has been talking to Obama political operatives in Iowa and New Hampshire as 2020 momentum builds.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Friends, permit me a personal thread. For the last nearly 13 years now FHQ has been dutifully covering the ins and outs of the presidential nomination process. But for much of that time I've also been trying to thread a very fine needle personally and professionally. 1/
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Here’s the current breakdown of Republican unbound delegates.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
After a three cycle hiatus, Nebraska Democrats are back to a presidential primary for 2020. The party's State Central Committee overwhelmingly voted to replace the recent caucuses with the May primary election.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
#InvisiblePrimary Rospars has gone... Dean 2004 Obama 2008 Obama 2012 Warren 2020
@mj_lee
MJ Lee
6 years
News: Elizabeth Warren has hired Joe Rospars, who was Obama’s chief digital strategy in 2008 and 2012, to help lead her emerging 2020 presidential campaign.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
So if you're keeping track at home, the 2016 Democratic caucus states that will use the primary option in 2020: CO, ID, ME, MN & NE. 2016 caucus states with a new but undefined primary option in 2020: UT. That's 6 of the 14 2016 caucus states. More here:
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
NE is a State Central Committee vote (coming in 2019) away from a switch . WA Dems have a renewed interest in opting into the state-funded primary. HI & WY tried and failed to create primaries legislatively in 2017-18.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Well, the original resolution passed by the RNC in 2013 was much broader in scope. It included both CNN and NBC (& all its partners).
@MarcACaputo
Marc Caputo
5 years
The 2016 Republican presidential candidates had 12 debates. None was on MSNBC, per an RNC ban that surely resembles the DNC’s 2020 ban of a FOX debate
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
The votes continue to trickle in, but this is heading for a delegate allocation that looks something like: Sanders: 9 Buttigieg: 9 Klobuchar: 6 There just aren't that many delegates to go around and the candidates are too clustered together to see much separation there.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
2) That time of selection is April (NH) and June (IA). The Buttigieg campaign may or may not stay involved in that process as it continues. Delegate candidates pledged to him may or may not continue as the process progresses.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
#InvisiblePrimary I'm guessing Buttigieg is going to take a trip to Scrutiny Town at next week's debate.
@daveweigel
David Weigel
5 years
New Monmouth poll of Iowa, trend since August: Buttigieg: 22% (+14) Biden: 19% (-7) Warren: 18% (-2) Sanders: 13% (+5) Klobuchar: 5% (+2) Harris: 3% (-9) Steyer: 3% (-) Yang: 3% (+2) Booker: 2% (+1) Gabbard: 2% (+1) Bullock: 1% (-) Castro: 1% (+1) Klobuchar closer to Dec debate
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Republican state legislators in the South did not frontload presidential primaries for 2016 to help Hillary Clinton. They just didn't.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
Blue wall state polls from YouGov/UW this morning: MI: Biden +9 PA: Biden +7 WI: Biden +8 A month ago (in that series of polls) it was... MI: Biden +6 PA: Biden +4 WI: Biden +4 Trump dropped more than Biden gained in that time in both MI & WI.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
#ItsTooEarly but... These results mirror the basic order of the races in the 2008 general. Presidential race was the closest while the Democrats running for senate and governor in NC ran ahead of Obama.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Update on current unbound Republican delegates (3/27/16). [MTP overstated number this morning.]
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Tweets like these infuriate me as a scholar of the primary calendar.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Nice thread here on the turning out new voters theory Sanders has made a part of his argument. Further tests to come. Perhaps Iowa was an aberration, but perhaps not.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
In-person absentee voting starts in MN & VA today (first states) 11 days until the 1st presidential debate 19 days until the VP debate 27 days until the 2nd presidential debate 34 days until the 3rd presidential debate 46 days until Election Day
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Trump’s likely NY haul lowers his percentage needed in the remaining states. But he still needs ~63.5% of the remaining bound delegates.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
3 months
Well, this isn't true. Democratic delegates are pledged, not bound.
@prem_thakker
Prem Thakker
3 months
(This only really matters if there is some form of contestation at the convention — on the first ballot, delegates must vote for the candidate they're assigned)
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Those statewide delegates will be selected in June in Iowa and April in New Hampshire. Sanders is likely to be the biggest beneficiary by those points on the selection calendar.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
#InvisiblePrimary Sanders adds a campaign manager with some past leadership -- establishment if you will -- ties. #StaffPrimary
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Case law on that question *overwhelmingly* favors the state parties on first amendment (free association) grounds.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Super Tuesday 2020 Adds Minnesota
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
We often hear of those who have fought to protect our right to vote. It bears repeating that inspiring as well are those who fight to exercise it. This isn't new today. The challenge may be unique but that fight isn't and should be acknowledged.
@JRRadcliffe
JR Radcliffe
5 years
Milwaukee resident Jennifer Taff requested an absentee ballot almost three weeks ago, never got it. She has a father dying from lung disease and then waited hours in line to vote at Washington High School. Photo from Patricia McKnight. More:
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
I strongly suspect we'll see some significant #winnowing after IA because Klobuchar is far from alone on the IA-or-bust strategy with this field. There are *a lot* of hopeful prospective Jimmy Carters out there.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
This criticism strikes on some level me as unfair. Is the line long? Yep. But it is the first day of 19 days of early voting in Gwinnett County, GA, a county that is offering a record 9 early voting locations this year. 1/
@clairecmc
Claire McCaskill
4 years
This is a picture of voter suppression. Why do Americans have to wait in lines this long? This is the line in Suwannee Georgia today to vote.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Post-CO update on the percentage of remaining bound delegates active candidates need to get to 1237.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Folks, I stepped away for a bit to go for a walk and write/blog some. I want to say a *very sincere* thank you to you all for your kind words and suggestions. [It is often all too easy to decry the ills of social media, but there is occasionally some good in it too.] 12/11
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
CNN calls Oklahoma for Biden. The Sooner state was one Sanders won in 2016 over Clinton.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
That 26 includes 8 at-large or PLEO delegates. Five in Iowa and three in New Hampshire. Those Buttigieg statewide delegate slots will now be proportionally reallocated to candidates above 15% statewide and are still active at the time of selection.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
[There. Thanks.] The uncertainty this shift introduces means that I cannot guarantee that FHQ will continue to be the FHQ that was/has been during previous cycles. Perhaps it will be. But you, valued reader, deserve the heads up about why it may not. Thanks y'all. 11/11
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
2 days until Michigan and Pennsylvania certify their election results 23 days until the Electoral College votes 46 days until Congress counts electoral votes 60 days until Inauguration
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
7 months
I mean, I feel like there is an obvious follow up not asked here: why did this not trip up Democratic presidential candidates in 2000, 2008, 2012 and 2020 or Republican candidates in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2020? And that's just this century.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
7 years
This is interesting.
@IsaacDovere
Edward-Isaac Dovere
7 years
The North Carolina Democrats just released a leaked email sent by the NC GOP caucus director, extrapolating that based on the PA-18 math, the North Carolina General Assembly would go from 75-45 Republican control to 74-46 Democratic control: a flip of 29 seats
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
New @ppppolls survey of Georgia has the presidential race at: Biden 48 Trump 46 Earlier in October they found: Biden 47 Trump 46 Steady race through their lens.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 months
Perhaps some or a lot of those folks got increasingly cold feet after last night. Perhaps. But I'm not inclined to think so. 2/
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
And off we go. 20 weeks from today is Election Day. Here's what things look like in FHQ's projection: The Electoral College Map (6/16/20)
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
The Electoral College Map (9/22/16)
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 months
Furthermore, while some may peel off and seek an off ramp to all of this, it is not at all clear that doing so would be successful or doing anything to further undermine the president's cause, further hampering any such effort. 3/
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Iowa Democrats will publish *three* results from caucus night next month: 1) first alignment preferences, 2) final alignment preferences (after viability has been determined), and 3) state delegate equivalents.
@MattGrossmann
Matt Grossmann
5 years
Biden vs Bernie still most likely, with these results unlikely to shift national picture (like 2016): But remember that Iowa will release 2 results on Caucus night (delegate equivalents & pre-realignment preferences); multiple claimed winners likely
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
And honestly, so far that is really the overarching story of this race: a consistent Biden lead where it counts most but with inflated leads in late June/early July.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
2 years
Sorry, but "waiting until December" just isn't a viable strategy for a presidential aspirant. This is someone who is trying to thread a very specific needle in a West Virginia reelection.
@costareports
Robert Costa
2 years
Senator Joe Manchin does not rule out a 2024 presidential bid in new interview with @margbrennan @FaceTheNation , doesn’t offer support to expected Biden reelect, and says he’s waiting to see how the race develops: “let’s see who all the players are”
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 months
Things can obviously change, but I just don't see any sort of change at the top of the ticket in the cards at this time. ...even after last night. But again, we shall see. 5/5
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
I may give up debates for Lent.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Sigh. The bill in question *was* passed in June. However, it has not yet been transmitted to Governor Cuomo for his consideration.
@aseitzwald
Alex Seitz-Wald
5 years
The Bernie Sanders camp is urging the DNC Rules & Bylaws committee to consider sanctions against NY if Gov. Cuomo doesn't sign a bill sitting on his desk that would make it easier to switch parties to vote in a primary, as recommended by the party's Unity & Reform Commission.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
#InvisiblePrimary In SC, results like these would mean... 1) Only Biden and Warren would qualify for delegates statewide, and... 2) Biden would leave with a two to one advantage over Warren in at-large & PLEO delegates allocated.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Folks, all of the serious campaigns are planning for this contingency. Those same campaigns are also all courting party insiders. #InvisiblePrimary
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
Trump +10 in MO.
@surveyusa
SurveyUSA
8 years
Poll #23077 taken in Missouri for KSDK-TV (St. Louis): Q: If the Republican primary for Missouri Governor wer...
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Harry ain't wrong here. AP has Sanders's delegate lead in CA at 36 delegates tonight. If Sanders fails to break 15% anywhere in MS, then Biden wins all 36 delegates there. #NetDelegateAdvantage Breaks even. #DelegatesDelegatesDelegates
@ForecasterEnten
(((Harry Enten)))
5 years
Folks it's about delegates... A big win in MS, if it happens, is gonna net Biden many of them...
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
3 months
Folks will ask me about the rules for this situation, but my advice is watch the endorsements. If members of Congress, elected Democrats & DNC members follow the president's lead and line up behind Harris in the week ahead, then that is going to significantly ease the transition.
@costareports
Robert Costa
3 months
Rep. Schiff endorses Harris... so does Sen. Ossoff
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
3 months
The "race" to 2351* is on. *Yes, superdelegates are eligible to vote in the virtual roll call. Harris secured a majority of all delegates among pledged delegates on the nomination petition to qualify. That opened the door to superdelegate participation.
@aseitzwald
Alex Seitz-Wald
3 months
It’s 9am, that means delegates can now begin voting in Democrats’ virtual roll call to formally nominate Kamala Harris. She is running unopposed for the nomination.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
1 month
4 days until early voting begins (in Minnesota, South Dakota) 15 days until the vice presidential debate 50 days until the presidential election
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
11 months
62 days until the Iowa Republican caucuses 81 days until the South Carolina Democratic primary 112 days until Super Tuesday
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
Yep. GA ended up Biden +0.47 on election day at FHQ. Biden 47.4, Trump 46.9
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Happy Monday, everyone! Would note that this scenario hinges on the 4 or 5 candidates consistently clearing the 15% qualifying threshold (statewide & in CDs) before, during and after Super Tuesday. And remaining rather tightly bunched. Still skeptical.
@SeanTrende
Sean T at RCP
6 years
The real story is that if four or five serious Democrats stay in through CA and TX, with delegates awarded proportionally, there is a genuine risk of a brokered convention. cc: @NateSilver538
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
The Electoral College Map (11/1/16)
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 months
One wrinkle to this is that the DNC does now have rules in place to formally nominate Biden *before* the convention (because of the ballot access row with Ohio). That shortens the window even more for potential action on this front. 4/
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
Worth reading again.
@goodauth
Good Authority
8 years
Re-upping my post on why the logic of attending a rally is very different than the logic of turning out to vote:
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Huh? I don't even think that's the first contested convention take of 2019. Folks were talking up the odds of a contested convention at least as early as the California primary move. ...in late 2017.
@HowardKurtz
HowardKurtz
5 years
Let the record show that Axios has run what may be 1st piece on chances for a brokered Democratic convention in 2020, a phenomenon predicted every 4 years that never seems to happen
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
I love this tweet. It perfectly encapsulates what turns people off rules discussions -- often semantics/wording issues -- and what draws some of us to them. #RulesMatter #WordsMatter #DNC2018
@AdamParkhomenko
Adam Parkhomenko
6 years
@FHQ Hence many suggesting the vote isn’t a charter change even though it is due to the ridiculous way they wrote it. Had they written it right, rather than pretend they put thought into how it was written the wrong way, this back and forth wouldn’t be happening.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
If you're a media outlet and want to be worth your salt in covering the rules of the presidential nomination process as 2020 approaches, then let's touch base. 7/
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
I'll take "Things States Do and Not the National Parties" for $2000, Alex.
@daveweigel
David Weigel
8 years
In interview with @WPJohnWagner , Bernie hints at a reform his delegates may go for: Open primaries in all 50 states.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
No. That was Sunday. Just two days ago.
@JoshKraushaar
Josh Kraushaar
8 years
Was it really just a week ago that @NateSilver538 polls model had the presidential election as a pure tossup?
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
Season 5 of The Americans is off to a rousing start in Philly.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
6 years
Several folks have asked/commented about open/closed on these new primaries. Only ME's is closed. The remainder either give state parties the option on unaffiliated (UA) participation (ID, UT) or allow UAs to choose (CO, NE, MN). They aren't all closed.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
86 days until the Iowa caucuses. 94 days until the New Hampshire primary. 105 days until the Nevada caucuses. 112 days until the South Carolina primary. 115 days until Super Tuesday.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
36 days until the Iowa caucuses. 44 days until the New Hampshire primary. 55 days until the Nevada caucuses. 62 days until the South Carolina primary. 65 days until Super Tuesday.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Needle unmoved. See you in October. #DemDebate3
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
So, I've been thinking about the possibility of Republicans voting in the South Carolina Democratic primary for months, at least since the time that South Carolina Republicans opted to forgo their own 2020 presidential primary. 1/
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Ugh. @chucktodd calls COGOP delegates unbound. #false | 30 are bound to Cruz. 4 unbound, but support Cruz. 3 party delegates are unbound.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
Breaking: Voter turnout will be crucial everywhere.
@voxdotcom
Vox
8 years
Voter turnout will be crucial in Pennsylvania. #ElectionNight
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
Switching to primaries matters. And before I say "so does it not being 2016 anymore," it is worth pointing out that Clinton won the beauty contest Washington primary in 2016.
@kkondik
Kyle Kondik
5 years
Exit poll suggests Biden lead of somewhere in low double digits in WASHINGTON
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
4 years
That's the ballgame, folks.
@DecisionDeskHQ
Decision Desk HQ
4 years
Decision Desk HQ projects that @JoeBiden has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273. Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America. Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST All Results:
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
3 months
This is the other advantage Harris has over any other Democrat who may throw their hat in the ring.
@ShaneGoldmacher
Shane Goldmacher
3 months
It's FEC official The form:
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 months
2 days until the South Carolina Democratic primary 7 days until the Nevada Republican caucuses 33 days until Super Tuesday
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
5 years
So a Candidate Has Dropped Out. What Happens to Their Delegates?
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Percentage of remaining bound delegates needed for 1237: Trump: 59.6% Cruz: 67.6% Rubio: 83.3% Kasich: 91.0% All need WTA wins to get there.
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
9 years
Post-WY update on the percentage of remaining bound delegates active candidates need to get to 1237.
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Josh Putnam
4 years
2 days until the Democratic National Convention starts 9 days until the Republican National Convention starts 45 days until the 1st presidential debate 53 days until the VP debate 61 days until the 2nd presidential debate 80 days until Election Day
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@FHQ
Josh Putnam
8 years
The Electoral College Map (9/25/16)
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Josh Putnam
6 years
2) At 13 percent, Sanders would not even qualify for delegates in the NH primary. Only Warren and Biden would. #InvisiblePrimary #FITN
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