In-person absentee voting starts in MN tomorrow (first state)
12 days until the 1st presidential debate
20 days until the VP debate
28 days until the 2nd presidential debate
35 days until the 3rd presidential debate
47 days until Election Day
There will be a significant decrease in the number of caucuses in the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination process.
If you're keeping track at home, there were 14 Democratic caucus *states* in 2016. 9 of those 14 have made efforts toward primaries for 2020 already.
Biden right now is ahead or down by a point in states containing over 400 electoral votes. He's also up 10 pts in national polls. If that was the result (& the piece points out why it may not be), it would be the largest win for a Dem since LBJ in 64.
CO, ME & MN all made the caucus-to-primary switch for 2020 in 2016.
UT added funding for a presidential primary option in 2017.
ID Dems have now voted to switch to a primary.
I mean, I suppose this is one way to interpret these polls. But Biden gained in four of the six battlegrounds (and nationally) since the last wave of Change Research polls in early August. FWIW.
This is a fantastic point. Superdelegate endorsers of Harris are now free to shop around anew. Where if anywhere they go -- especially if in tandem -- may provide us and voters with a pretty clear signal.
Harris had a slew of endorsements from CA... Also, she was the only candidate besides Biden to pick up a number of CBC endorsements. Be interesting to see where those go.
Here's the thing: The rules are secondary to the pool of people actually making those decisions. The delegates. The vast vast majority of them are not only Biden-pledged delegates, but have been reviewed and basically handpicked from those who filed by the Biden campaign. 1/
Question for
@FHQ
, who really knows the rules of noms. Obs lots of talk about replacing Biden. What do the rules say? If the rules make it hard, can’t the Dems just change the rules? These aren’t laws. They are internal party rules & if the rules were broken, so what? Who'd sue?
#InvisiblePrimary
This isn't insignificant. A Harris endorsement by 1) a CBC member and 2) someone out of state.
Important constituency signal plus a break in the *mostly* home state endorsement trend in 2019.
#EndorsementPrimary
5 days until the South Carolina primary
8 days until Super Tuesday
15 days until ID, MI, MS, MO, ND & WA
22 days until the St. Patrick’s Day primary (FL, IL, OH)
64 days until the Acela primary (NY, PA, etc)
103 days until the Virgin Islands caucuses
Those last two (HI & WY) may not realistically get there for 2020, but even if they don't and the other seven do, that represents a 50% reduction in the number of caucus state from 2016 to 2020.
That number always shifts cycle over cycle, but that is a *big* shift.
Let's try this again but with an apples to apples comparison of likely voters.
Blue wall state polls from YouGov/UW this morning:
MI: Biden +10
PA: Biden +8
WI: Biden +9
A month ago (in that series of polls) it was:
MI: Biden +6
PA: Biden +4
WI: Biden +4
This not endorsing Biden thing and picking and choosing spots to oppose the president is straight from the Manchin playbook. He did the same thing in 2012 -- another year he was up for reelection -- when he skipped out on Obama's convention in Charlotte.
Folks are asking about Buttigieg suspending rather than withdrawing and the impact that might have on any reallocation of statewide delegates. A couple of things:
1) The rules say that reallocation occurs when someone is "no longer a candidate at the time of selection."
#InvisiblePrimary
It seems to me that the *direction* of these calls is not being emphasized enough here. O'Rourke is *fielding* them, not *placing* them to Obama hands in early states.
Friends, permit me a personal thread.
For the last nearly 13 years now FHQ has been dutifully covering the ins and outs of the presidential nomination process. But for much of that time I've also been trying to thread a very fine needle personally and professionally. 1/
After a three cycle hiatus, Nebraska Democrats are back to a presidential primary for 2020. The party's State Central Committee overwhelmingly voted to replace the recent caucuses with the May primary election.
News: Elizabeth Warren has hired Joe Rospars, who was Obama’s chief digital strategy in 2008 and 2012, to help lead her emerging 2020 presidential campaign.
So if you're keeping track at home, the 2016 Democratic caucus states that will use the primary option in 2020: CO, ID, ME, MN & NE.
2016 caucus states with a new but undefined primary option in 2020: UT.
That's 6 of the 14 2016 caucus states. More here:
NE is a State Central Committee vote (coming in 2019) away from a switch .
WA Dems have a renewed interest in opting into the state-funded primary.
HI & WY tried and failed to create primaries legislatively in 2017-18.
The votes continue to trickle in, but this is heading for a delegate allocation that looks something like:
Sanders: 9
Buttigieg: 9
Klobuchar: 6
There just aren't that many delegates to go around and the candidates are too clustered together to see much separation there.
2) That time of selection is April (NH) and June (IA). The Buttigieg campaign may or may not stay involved in that process as it continues. Delegate candidates pledged to him may or may not continue as the process progresses.
Blue wall state polls from YouGov/UW this morning:
MI: Biden +9
PA: Biden +7
WI: Biden +8
A month ago (in that series of polls) it was...
MI: Biden +6
PA: Biden +4
WI: Biden +4
Trump dropped more than Biden gained in that time in both MI & WI.
#ItsTooEarly
but...
These results mirror the basic order of the races in the 2008 general. Presidential race was the closest while the Democrats running for senate and governor in NC ran ahead of Obama.
Nice thread here on the turning out new voters theory Sanders has made a part of his argument. Further tests to come. Perhaps Iowa was an aberration, but perhaps not.
In-person absentee voting starts in MN & VA today (first states)
11 days until the 1st presidential debate
19 days until the VP debate
27 days until the 2nd presidential debate
34 days until the 3rd presidential debate
46 days until Election Day
(This only really matters if there is some form of contestation at the convention — on the first ballot, delegates must vote for the candidate they're assigned)
Those statewide delegates will be selected in June in Iowa and April in New Hampshire. Sanders is likely to be the biggest beneficiary by those points on the selection calendar.
We often hear of those who have fought to protect our right to vote. It bears repeating that inspiring as well are those who fight to exercise it. This isn't new today. The challenge may be unique but that fight isn't and should be acknowledged.
Milwaukee resident Jennifer Taff requested an absentee ballot almost three weeks ago, never got it. She has a father dying from lung disease and then waited hours in line to vote at Washington High School. Photo from Patricia McKnight.
More:
I strongly suspect we'll see some significant
#winnowing
after IA because Klobuchar is far from alone on the IA-or-bust strategy with this field. There are *a lot* of hopeful prospective Jimmy Carters out there.
This criticism strikes on some level me as unfair. Is the line long? Yep. But it is the first day of 19 days of early voting in Gwinnett County, GA, a county that is offering a record 9 early voting locations this year.
1/
Folks, I stepped away for a bit to go for a walk and write/blog some. I want to say a *very sincere* thank you to you all for your kind words and suggestions.
[It is often all too easy to decry the ills of social media, but there is occasionally some good in it too.] 12/11
That 26 includes 8 at-large or PLEO delegates. Five in Iowa and three in New Hampshire. Those Buttigieg statewide delegate slots will now be proportionally reallocated to candidates above 15% statewide and are still active at the time of selection.
[There. Thanks.]
The uncertainty this shift introduces means that I cannot guarantee that FHQ will continue to be the FHQ that was/has been during previous cycles. Perhaps it will be. But you, valued reader, deserve the heads up about why it may not. Thanks y'all. 11/11
2 days until Michigan and Pennsylvania certify their election results
23 days until the Electoral College votes
46 days until Congress counts electoral votes
60 days until Inauguration
I mean, I feel like there is an obvious follow up not asked here: why did this not trip up Democratic presidential candidates in 2000, 2008, 2012 and 2020 or Republican candidates in 2004, 2008, 2012 and 2020?
And that's just this century.
The North Carolina Democrats just released a leaked email sent by the NC GOP caucus director, extrapolating that based on the PA-18 math, the North Carolina General Assembly would go from 75-45 Republican control to 74-46 Democratic control: a flip of 29 seats
New
@ppppolls
survey of Georgia has the presidential race at:
Biden 48
Trump 46
Earlier in October they found:
Biden 47
Trump 46
Steady race through their lens.
Furthermore, while some may peel off and seek an off ramp to all of this, it is not at all clear that doing so would be successful or doing anything to further undermine the president's cause, further hampering any such effort. 3/
Iowa Democrats will publish *three* results from caucus night next month:
1) first alignment preferences,
2) final alignment preferences (after viability has been determined), and
3) state delegate equivalents.
Biden vs Bernie still most likely, with these results unlikely to shift national picture (like 2016):
But remember that Iowa will release 2 results on Caucus night (delegate equivalents & pre-realignment preferences); multiple claimed winners likely
And honestly, so far that is really the overarching story of this race: a consistent Biden lead where it counts most but with inflated leads in late June/early July.
Sorry, but "waiting until December" just isn't a viable strategy for a presidential aspirant. This is someone who is trying to thread a very specific needle in a West Virginia reelection.
Senator Joe Manchin does not rule out a 2024 presidential bid in new interview with
@margbrennan
@FaceTheNation
, doesn’t offer support to expected Biden reelect, and says he’s waiting to see how the race develops: “let’s see who all the players are”
Things can obviously change, but I just don't see any sort of change at the top of the ticket in the cards at this time.
...even after last night. But again, we shall see. 5/5
The Bernie Sanders camp is urging the DNC Rules & Bylaws committee to consider sanctions against NY if Gov. Cuomo doesn't sign a bill sitting on his desk that would make it easier to switch parties to vote in a primary, as recommended by the party's Unity & Reform Commission.
#InvisiblePrimary
In SC, results like these would mean...
1) Only Biden and Warren would qualify for delegates statewide, and...
2) Biden would leave with a two to one advantage over Warren in at-large & PLEO delegates allocated.
Harry ain't wrong here.
AP has Sanders's delegate lead in CA at 36 delegates tonight.
If Sanders fails to break 15% anywhere in MS, then Biden wins all 36 delegates there.
#NetDelegateAdvantage
Breaks even.
#DelegatesDelegatesDelegates
Folks will ask me about the rules for this situation, but my advice is watch the endorsements. If members of Congress, elected Democrats & DNC members follow the president's lead and line up behind Harris in the week ahead, then that is going to significantly ease the transition.
The "race" to 2351* is on.
*Yes, superdelegates are eligible to vote in the virtual roll call. Harris secured a majority of all delegates among pledged delegates on the nomination petition to qualify. That opened the door to superdelegate participation.
It’s 9am, that means delegates can now begin voting in Democrats’ virtual roll call to formally nominate Kamala Harris. She is running unopposed for the nomination.
Happy Monday, everyone!
Would note that this scenario hinges on the 4 or 5 candidates consistently clearing the 15% qualifying threshold (statewide & in CDs) before, during and after Super Tuesday. And remaining rather tightly bunched. Still skeptical.
The real story is that if four or five serious Democrats stay in through CA and TX, with delegates awarded proportionally, there is a genuine risk of a brokered convention. cc:
@NateSilver538
One wrinkle to this is that the DNC does now have rules in place to formally nominate Biden *before* the convention (because of the ballot access row with Ohio). That shortens the window even more for potential action on this front. 4/
Huh? I don't even think that's the first contested convention take of 2019. Folks were talking up the odds of a contested convention at least as early as the California primary move.
...in late 2017.
Let the record show that Axios has run what may be 1st piece on chances for a brokered Democratic convention in 2020, a phenomenon predicted every 4 years that never seems to happen
I love this tweet. It perfectly encapsulates what turns people off rules discussions -- often semantics/wording issues -- and what draws some of us to them.
#RulesMatter
#WordsMatter
#DNC2018
@FHQ
Hence many suggesting the vote isn’t a charter change even though it is due to the ridiculous way they wrote it. Had they written it right, rather than pretend they put thought into how it was written the wrong way, this back and forth wouldn’t be happening.
If you're a media outlet and want to be worth your salt in covering the rules of the presidential nomination process as 2020 approaches, then let's touch base.
7/
Several folks have asked/commented about open/closed on these new primaries.
Only ME's is closed.
The remainder either give state parties the option on unaffiliated (UA) participation (ID, UT) or allow UAs to choose (CO, NE, MN).
They aren't all closed.
86 days until the Iowa caucuses.
94 days until the New Hampshire primary.
105 days until the Nevada caucuses.
112 days until the South Carolina primary.
115 days until Super Tuesday.
36 days until the Iowa caucuses.
44 days until the New Hampshire primary.
55 days until the Nevada caucuses.
62 days until the South Carolina primary.
65 days until Super Tuesday.
So, I've been thinking about the possibility of Republicans voting in the South Carolina Democratic primary for months, at least since the time that South Carolina Republicans opted to forgo their own 2020 presidential primary. 1/
Switching to primaries matters.
And before I say "so does it not being 2016 anymore," it is worth pointing out that Clinton won the beauty contest Washington primary in 2016.
Decision Desk HQ projects that
@JoeBiden
has won Pennsylvania and its 20 electoral college votes for a total of 273.
Joe Biden has been elected the 46th President of the United States of America.
Race called at 11-06 08:50 AM EST
All Results:
2 days until the Democratic National Convention starts
9 days until the Republican National Convention starts
45 days until the 1st presidential debate
53 days until the VP debate
61 days until the 2nd presidential debate
80 days until Election Day