Wolfgang Munchau @EuroBriefing Twitter profile

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Decision to ban AstraZeneca constitutes an act of political panic that will be hard to undo. Will lead to thousands of more deaths, longer lockdown, lower economic growth, and give people a rational reason to oppose European integration. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Ursula von der Leyen's loose talk about export bans has so far had only one tangible effect: UK is now doing deals to keep the entire vaccine supply chain in the country.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Eurogroup deal is not good for Italy and southern Europe. As so often before, we see an Italian finance minister agreeing to a deal that is ultimately not in his country’s best interest. Momentum for coronabonds is fading.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

European leaders were quick to comment on events in Washington, but eerily quiet on the arrests of pro-democracy activists in Hong Kong.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

Why does everybody in Brussels seem to buy into the notion that zero-tariff deal requires regulatory alignment on grounds that UK is geographically close? This is mad. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Italy, Spain folded. Recovery plan will be the German version: a temporary increase in EU budget, through guarantees, then leveraged, disbursed as loans. EU doesn’t do macro. Only credits.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

7 years

Spain is now making the ultimate mistake in the stand-off with Catalonia. It is overreacting.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

it appears von der Leyen did not consider supply chain shortages likely to arise for EU vaccine producers in the event of an export ban to UK. Looks like another Art 16 episode. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

7 years

Puigdemont may well succeed in his goal to get a Belgian court to rule that Spain cannot guarantee a fair trial -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

My latest column on how the Europeans ended up overestimating Joe Biden and underestimating Boris Johnson. A bad combination.

Snookered by Anglo-Saxons

The Europeans have misread Biden and misjudged Johnson. A bad combination

www.eurointelligence.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Big tactical mistake by Italy and Spain to agree Art 122 as legal basis for recovery fund. The way the EU works, this will ensure that most of the money will come in the form of credits. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Really weird seeing Germany discrediting AstraZeneca, and then considering Russian vaccine that does not meet any EU standards. Looks like they are panicking.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

Absolutely unbelievable that EU finance ministers are considering Jeroen Dijsselbloem for Lagarde’s old job at the IMF. He shares responsibility for some of the biggest macro policy errors of our time. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

UK is taking steps to ban Chinese forced labour from British supply chains. The EU does the opposite.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

Not so swift. Our public story on how the EU has effectively ended up cancelling the sanctions against the Russian banks.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Germany's spineless foreign minister is warning his citizens in Hong Kong not to criticise Beijing. So much for the idea of EU standing up to China.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Smear campaign in Germany against AstraZeneca has been hugely successful. As people can't choose their vaccine, many are now not turning up for appointments.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Merkel is not only defending the slow rollout of vaccines. She is actively celebrating it as a European way of doing things. This will go down as perhaps her biggest political misjudgement. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Have the buffoons who seek a vaccine export ban considered that a vaccine trade war would end up killing Europeans as well, and also kill the 2021 summer holiday season at a massive economic cost? -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

EU leaders are back to their usual habit of talking privately to Putin to secure their own gas deals. The EU's unity over Ukraine is an optical illusion that will become increasingly hard to maintain. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

my latest column in which I make the surely uncontroversial claim that Brexit has been, and is likely to be, a macroeconomic non-event.

So much for the Brexit scare stories

In my latest column, I take a look at the alarmist Brexit forecasts and contrast them with the post-Brexit reality. www.eurointelligence.com

www.eurointelligence.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

There is a group of German politicians in the pocket of the Kremlin, like Gerhard Schroder. This has always been so. What is perhaps less known is that one of them is Armin Laschet, the new CDU leader.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

So Germany after all signalled that it would not let UK military planes use German air space. That and Biden's small invasion, even after its retraction, are messages that will encourage Putin. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Other real bullet is the German court's explicit accusation that ECJ transgressed its competences, and is therefore to be ignored. Will open floodgates. This is the German version of Brexit.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

we have reached the moment where EU is becoming more scared of an unconditional Brexit extension than a no-deal Brexit. I don’t think Macron is bluffing. Even in Germany the mood is shifting.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Big news from failed European Council is that the south is finally ganging up against the north. Last time, everybody wanted to be on good terms with Merkel. No longer so. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

Here is my latest column, on why Putin will win the war unless we ban energy imports completely.

Time to ban energy imports

It is our continued flow of money that has paved the way for Vladimir Putin’s war. Time to end it.

www.eurointelligence.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Eurogroup deal is not good for Italy and southern Europe. As so often before, we see an Italian finance minister agreeing to a deal that is ultimately not in his country’s best interest. Momentum for coronabonds is fading.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

The swiss Nein to the framework agreement with the EU is Brexit all over: the issues were freedom of movement and dynamic alignment. EU keeps doubling down, and gets the same results. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

EU's focus on Erdogan is far too narrow. He is playing a bigger game. Not confronting Turkey is probably the biggest failure of EU diplomacy right now.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

If Giuseppe Conte were smart, he would build an alliance with Portugal, Spain and Greece - the fourious four. No sign of that happening yet. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

My FT column on why the EU’s tactics during the first round of Brexit talks contributed to Johnson’s victory, and resulted in a harder Brexit

The EU must rethink its approach to UK trade talks

Brussels was wrong to treat Brexit as a threat, rather than grasping it as an opportunity

www.ft.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

11 months

In our public story, we look at Keir Starmer's silly assertion that he can get a better deal with the EU.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Italy, Spain folded. Recovery plan will be the German version: a temporary increase in EU budget, through guarantees, then leveraged, disbursed as loans. EU doesn’t do macro. Only credits.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

6 years

Spiegel Online columnist compares Italy to beggar who fails to say thank you. German eurozone discourse now totally out of control.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

1 year

my latest New Statesman column on why Macron is right about China.

The EU cannot afford to take sides in the contest between the US and China

Europe’s economy, dependent on global supply chains, is not built for Cold War-style relations.

www.newstatesman.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Christine Lagarde is right. An OMT programme, backed by an ESM credit line, is not the right programme. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

EU working on plans where member states guarantee EU debt which is then lent back to member states. Sole purpose is to create illusion of EU involvement. EU member states in the end still responsible for their debt. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Europeans did not see it coming when Trump got elected in 2016. They misjudged Brexit. And this year they misread US politics once again. A clear pattern. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

6 years

single most important misjudgement in the Brexit debate right now is the notion that is is possible to take no-deal off-the-table.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Italy, Spain folded. Recovery plan will be the German version: a temporary increase in EU budget, through guarantees, then leveraged, disbursed as loans. EU doesn’t do macro. Only credits.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

EU is always willing to pay lip service to human rights, but in the end always ends up colluding with abusive regimes to protect exports. That's also the spirit of the EU/China investment pact

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

The nine countries calling for a eurobond should consider issuing a eurobond among themselves - and then get the ECB to buy it. ECB can hardly refuse. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

After 17 years, this is my last Monday column in the FT.

Complacent insiders sow the seeds of their own demise

Different qualities help nonconformist challengers to succeed

www.ft.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

It is hard to overestimate how desperate Germany is for Nord Stream 2 to come online. If not, Russia could retaliate by cutting off existing supplies, and trigger an immediate energy emergency. Germany is already dependent on Russia for energy.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Spain's decision to forego loans from recovery fund makes sense. Why go for a conditional loan when there is no shortage of unconditional ones? There is a glut of EU lending. Not needed. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

Without Cooper bill, UK parliament has no means to stop a no-deal Brexit. A vote to stop it won't stop it. A vote to extend Brexit won't extend it. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

way the European recovery facility will work is that the net contributors will judge compliance by net recipients. This is worse than the troika. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

6 years

German economic strategy is unbelievably toxic: double down on fiscal surpluses and export-led growth, frustrate EZ reforms, undermine competition policy. This, not Trump or Putin, is the engine of the EU's existential crisis.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

Now China is threatening restrictions on German car imports. The world has discovered that it is easy to blackmail Germany and the EU because of their addiction to net exports.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Merkel and Macron seriously misjudged the revolt of the Baltic states and Poland at yesterday's European Council. Idea of resuming high-level talks with Putin at this point is wrong on so many levels. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

"The tragedy of Europe is that Germany is not standing up to Russia, and that the EU is not standing up to Germany. " My latest column.

When Russia invades...

... Europe will appease

www.eurointelligence.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

what will become obvious in Italy but is not yet reflected in the media coverage, is just how the small the recovery fund fund is in relation to the fall in GDP.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Germany made itself dependent on Russia for energy and on China for telecoms. This is what informs German foreign policy right now. Don't be fooled by changing rhetoric.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

The tragedy of EU is that it will only offer real concession in Brexit negotiations when a no-deal Brexit looks certain. At that point, it might be too late. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

EU messed up its vaccine strategy, and doesn't want to admit it. Instead of playing the blame game, how about just solving the problem and build production capacity?

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

It is probably best to look at the new Conte administration as another technical government - Monti-style. These governments end up radicalising the electorate.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

My latest column - on Angela Merkel, Europe's most over-rated politician.

Overrated - now fading

Angela Merkel is the most over-rated politician of our time.

www.eurointelligence.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

EU’s demand of full regulatory alignment and access to UK fishing waters for tariff-only deal is unreasonable - and unsustainable too. EU unity would not hold if that position was pushed to limits.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

German papers report that the German interior minister is about to dismiss the head of the cyber security agency over Russia connections. In our public story, we wonder whether this is connected to the railway sabotage.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Dutch parliament has declared China's suppression of the Uighur Muslims a genocide - a challenge to the EU's pro-China consensus that disguises itself as pragmatism.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Eurogroup deal is not good for Italy and southern Europe. As so often before, we see an Italian finance minister agreeing to a deal that is ultimately not in his country’s best interest. Momentum for coronabonds is fading.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

My FT column on the danger to the eurozone from miniBots. They are an exit instrument.

How Matteo Salvini could blow up the eurozone

If Brussels corners Italy’s government over its fiscal plans, it will resort to dangerous fiscal tricks

www.ft.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Conflict between EU and Germany is not about primacy of EU law. It's much worse. Karlsruhe regards itself as the arbiter of where EU's competences start and end. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

Interesting that Germans, for the first time, believe that no-deal is possible. Previous assumption was that House of Commons would frustrate it. Negotiations now more likely.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

The financial crisis is not going to be limited to the UK. In our main story this morning, we argue that the euro area is where the house is most likely to burn. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

If EU agrees to standard state aid clauses like those in EU/Japan or UK/Japan treaty, there will of course be a deal. If not, my expectation is that Boris Johnson will walk.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Germany has no intention to pass reforms as a condition for receiving money from recovery fund. Also using most of the money for existing projects. It is as if the rules were intended only for other countries.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Be wary of EU headline numbers. Eurogroup package is not €550bn. Recovery plan won’t be €1.5tr. Adds categories that cannot be added - lending capacity, credits, grants. Purpose is to impress the gullible.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

UK's refusal to grant diplomatic status to EU mission in London is silly and vindictive. What this is telling us is that there will be no strategic relationship between the two sides for the foreseeable future.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

UK is taking steps to ban Chinese forced labour from British supply chains. The EU does the opposite.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

7 years

I hate to break it to my friends in the UK, but: no, you can’t "stay in the EEA" after Brexit.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

How the EU lost the plot on vaccination. Gap between EU and US/UK vaccination going to get much bigger. Political backlash already starting. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

7 years

Spain's government is getting increasingly desperate to stop Puigdemont's nomination

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Europe's sovereign debt crisis never really ended. It got covered up by QE. When QE ends, the only thing that can save Italy is productivity growth. If that does not happen, the debt crisis will rear its ugly head. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

If the EU fails to respond to the Belarus crisis adequately, it will have to confront a new form of euroscepticism - one that opposes it on moral grounds. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

In our public story we look at a report that runs counter to many Brexit narratives. The UK is leading the EU in tech investment by a large margin, and the gap is widening.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Risk of a UK walkout in June is real. zero tariffs are not irresistible when you have a large trade deficit.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

A blockade constitutes an act of war. Johnson's accusation yesterday is probably the biggest verbal escalation in the Brexit wars we have seen to date. Not an environment conducive to a deal. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

In our public story we talk about Olaf Scholz' desperate attempt to deflect attention away from his duplicitous manoeuvres to frustrate arms sale to Ukraine, and discuss the possible reasons.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Looking at the list of changes under any Brexit deal scenario, one is reminded of how much was lost by the Remainers' refusal to support a softer version of Brexit.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

German energy policy has been a mess under Merkel. Now it is being squeezed from two sides: US pressure to drop Nordstream 2 and Brussels pressure for a 55% CO2 reduction target. Germany is not prepared for this. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

the main effect of the entire second referendum campaign has been to increase the probability of a no-deal Brexit - which is now very high. Whatever you might think of its merits, it was first and foremost a tactical miscalculation.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Unsurprisingly, that photo-op with Erdogan turned into yet another PR disaster for EU diplomacy. Michel and von der Leyen should have cancelled their visit after Erdogan's latest crackdown.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Good news is that AstraZeneca is back in Germany from today. Bad news is that it comes with a health warning. What is the point of that, considering that people don't have a choice? Vaccines are not cigarettes. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Not surprised to hear that Downing Street is doubling down on Brexit transition deadline. Covid-19 makes a WTO Brexit relatively less costly because most of the costs are already incurred.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

2 years

Putin is now blackmailing the German government to reopen Nord Stream 2 as a condition for continued gas deliveries. They did not see that coming. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Russia is filling the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, and cutting throughtput of other pipelines. This is completely unsurprising - the price the EU pays for letting Germany pursue selfish interests. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

There are many ways of not solving the problem. EU goes through them one by one: Blame games, empty threats, smear-campaign, who-gets-what discussions. How about just focusing on the problem itself? -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

Cummings' story is another reminder - after 2nd referendum debate - that we journalists should not mix up what we want to happen with what we expect to happen.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

My FT column in which I argue that the EU is not really prepared for a no-deal Brexit.

The EU must prepare for a no-deal Brexit

Europe’s leaders have failed to anticipate the risks of an overnight UK exit

www.ft.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

The way German media are discussing ECB policy is unbelievable. Language similar to that of pre-Brexit Britain. My FT column

Germany is replaying Britain’s Brexit debate

Pro-Europeans should remember how the battle was lost in the UK

www.ft.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

The EU excels at solving political problems, but not actual problems. The habit of kicking the can down the road has found its limits during a pandemic. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Dutch parliament has declared China's suppression of the Uighur Muslims a genocide - a challenge to the EU's pro-China consensus that disguises itself as pragmatism.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Germany has no intention to pass reforms as a condition for receiving money from recovery fund. Also using most of the money for existing projects. It is as if the rules were intended only for other countries.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

In my latest column I argue that the EU got its vaccination strategy wrong because it did kind of a Brexit deal with the pharma industry: losing sight of the picture in turn for some insignificant short-term gain.

Our worst policy error

With its disastrous vaccine procurement policy, the EU committed the ultimate mistake: it has given people a rational reason to oppose European integration.

www.eurointelligence.com

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

3 years

Get the popcorn out: German professors are bringing a case against the recovery fund.

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

EU’s €1.5tr recovery fund will be scam unless it is fully funded and the money is earmarked to support investments that would otherwise not be made. Not going to happen. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

5 years

Remainers made one strategic error after another: Project Fear, rejection of May’s deal, 2nd ref campaign, and futile fight to take no-deal off the table. It’s checkmate now. -

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Wolfgang Munchau

@EuroBriefing

4 years

opinion polling is headed in the same direction as economic forecasting. Only fools listen to this stuff. These methods are incapable of capturing the radical uncertainty of our times. -

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