#Ernesto
strengthening as it passes
#PuertoRico
. WHY ARE WE STILL TALKING ABOUT THE FRAGILITY OF PRs ELECTRICAL GRID SEVEN YEARS AFTER MARIA??? That is a national embarrassment.
For all the talk about targeted misinformation, the fact is the US public overall grossly uninformed. Weather coverage is a microcosm of this information sewer. Our society can't function with this level of rhetoric designed to engage and enrage ...
TLDR:
#Debby
is just southwest of
#SavannahGA
, expected to drift slowly offshore during the day. Lots of rain, flooding in places, below forecast in
#GA
, as it seems the greatest risk is in
#SC
as the storm lingers, then moves north. Details on blog.
That's some nice dry air just off to the west of Debby. Maybe some getting entrained and cut down the rain rates? GOES 6.9um (mid level water vapor) image ...
Nothing to say about
#HurricaneLee
until Monday, when the turn north should materialize, but the social media beast must be fed so here's an update ... click on it and make Elon feel relevant 😛
Key point for
#Georgia
and
#SouthCarolina
folks waiting for the rain from
#Debby
: This is NOT a storm surge event, other than some shallow flooding for areas that flood around high tide, when the tides are 2 feet or so above normal. This is rising water from heavy rain event, so
#AL13
#Lee
looks to rapidly strengthen,
#Caribbean
should "monitor" but looks like a miss; longer range, should turn away from US mainland but will freak out folks until it turns. Latest (6Sep23 am) impact forecast ...
Good news for those in Coastal Georgia: the winds have reversed and are blowing offshore, the high tide around noon should only be about 8.8 feet (instead of 11)! So unless a wind gust knocks out power or a limb breaks and damages something in the next couple hours that's it.
We have the first round of dedicated track models for
#AL97
, and they mostly group around the west coast of
#Florida
or Panhandle as a tropical storm ... NHC has upped the odds to 70%, full article in the morning on the blog.
#Debby
one day before landfall (4 August 2024) analysis. TLDR: Big Bend of
#Florida
is getting a Cat 1 hurricane. You're gonna need a bigger boat if you live in coastal
#Georgia
or
#SouthCarolina
.
Why isn't it raining in Savannah/Coastal GA? A band of very dry air has been entrained in to Ian's circulation .. here is the water vapor band at 8am ET Friday. Very sharp gradient in moisture in the lower atmo!
As July oozes to an end, the eyes of the bucolic denizens of the American Southeast are anxiously scanning the eastern skies for signs of the doom lurking just beyond the horizon. Is their angst justified? Let's find out ...
In the SE US, the nasty and if not careful dangerous combo of heat and humidity continues because, well, it's mid August. The heat index is "only" 95F here in midtown Savannah (GA) at the moment (8am ET), it's *already* over 100 in some places, headed towards 120F in spots!
Going to be on Bloomberg TV between 10:30 and 11am today (Fri 28 Oct) talking about hurricanes and climate change. Will try not to say CC isn't the biggest risk we face, it's geopolitical shenanigans and failed systems of governance ... ok, yes, I will say that.
@SarcasmStardust
The old labels really don't apply any more, certainly not "conservative" or "liberal" as in the 60s to 80's. Today there are only Fascist Authoritarians with Rightest Tendencies, and Fascist Authoritarians Imitating Liberals. FARTs and FAILs if you will.
#Idalia
landfall day: impacts on
#Florida
,
#Georgia
, estimated economic impacts upwards of $10 billion, but it's a vulnerable area and the $'s aren't the whole story ...
Slar has emerged from his cave, indicating an early
#spring
. The NOAA Climate Prediction Center agrees, for what that's worth. (The CPC forecast for Feb/Mar/Apr is here:
@aeberman12
@NJHagens
Based on weapons mix, doctrine, and escalation options, I see little chance of Russia using one first.
Based on weapons mix, doctrine, and escalation options, I see grave risk of the US using one first.
Russia does not trust US as a negotiating partner, only actions will speak.
TLDR on TD4 future "
#Debby
": The Big Bend of
#Florida
(aka South Georgia) will see a strong tropical storm, maybe minimal hurricane.
#Georgia
and
#SouthCarolina
look to get a lot of breezy rain, but it's complicated. Details on the blog ...
@SarcasmStardust
Until the 31st, it's a four hour time change, but on the 1st, it becomes 5 hours again when the Brits go to British Summer Time ... so for tomorrow, yes, 10:30am London local time is 6:30am Eastern US time.
No real changes with
#TD10
update (after the advisory NHC did decide it is now a tropical storm, so it is now named Idalia); there are other storms that will impact
#Bermuda
,
#China
this week ...
Just a reminder and warning that social media is a totally rubbish way to get news and information, especially for events like hurricanes or other rapidly changing situations. For one thing, posts are ranked and shown to you by algorithms that use a lot of factors like
Be like Tomás and chill: Nigel is on course, the thing off the Southeastern US still isn't a thing, and the wave coming off of Africa is likely to be of concern only to fish and people who hang out with them far offshore. NHC's advice didn't change.
GA/SC: non event.
NC/VA/MD: tropical storm conditions.
NJ: Probably tropical storm on the coast.
DC: Rain/Breezy in addition to your normal chaos and stupidity.
No need to keep hitting the refresh key, here's the post on
#Bret
that lets you know nothing has changed since last night; only real risk is to the windward islands from a middling tropical storm, should break up in the central Caribbean:
@SarcasmStardust
I think "delusion" is a better word than "hypocrisy." Evangelicals/Mormons believe restoring Israel will trigger the 2nd coming of Christ: who will smite the Jews. Jews encourage it because they believe restoration will trigger the 1st coming: who will smite the Christians.
#TropicalStormBret
continues west ... based on latest NHC forecast 674 thousand in the tropical storm swath (incl.
#Martinique
), economic impacts forecast to be mostly transient, under $500 Million USD.
@GeromanAT
I think maybe prep will start, but according to the models, ground freeze probably not until around 7 Dec ... here is today and forecast (sorry about the boundaries, US NWS software).
TLDR: A system in the
#Atlantic
may develop next week, don't worry about it until Monday (those in the northern
#Caribbean
can look Sunday). Water dumped by
#Debby
inland trying to return to the sea is causing a second wave of flooding.
As the FUD and angst grow over AL95, here's a not-very-brief rant on the philosophy behind the blog, the posting schedule, etc. Will do a post on AL95 when it becomes TD 13 (or NHC skips a step and goes for TS Lee).
Don't get excited yet, but signs the right hand side of the storm is struggling, which would be good for coastal GA/SC ... will likely start to draw in moisture from the Atlantic side, but hopefully the wind field will collapse faster than NHC forecast.
99.1%
#LunarEclipse
, Friday 19 Nov 2021. Leica SL, ApoTelyt 400mm. No post-processing, just exported the DNG to JPEG. Trees lit up with a little help of a flashlight ...
Iceland Volcano (click for blog): A geologist goes to his eternal fate:
Devil: This is the lake of lava you will be spending eternity in!
Geologist: Actually, since we're underground, it would be magma.
Devil: You understand that is why you're here ...
Cyclone Freddy (SH122022) is about to become the longest lasting tropical cyclone on record. Here is the full track over the last month, and the zig-zag track over Madagascar and the Mozambique Channel over the last couple weeks ...
Ian still isn't very organized, which makes it harder for the track models to converge, but Cat 3 likely. The steering should take it across Cuba then along the coast of Florida before landfall in the Big Bend and bothers GA. Brief update on the blog ...
Forecast for
#Lee
hasn't changed: for the northern Caribbean (including
#PuertoRico
and the
#VirginIslands
, The
#Bahamas
) and the US Southeast, just waves; elsewhere, "Margot and the Invests" would make a great name for a "Motown Era" cover band
Invest
#AL97
menaces
#Florida
(2 Aug 2024). Is Florida more doomed than usual? What about
#Georgia
and
#SouthCarolina
? Expect watches and warnings from NHC later today, and a tropical storm over the weekend. Details on the blog ...
#Solstice
2023: Most religions mark this time of year to reflect on the meaning of life and death ... understanding the why shouldn't detract from the wonder of nature, or the deeper philosophical meaning of the passage of time. Take a few minutes today to reflect on it all.
The awkwardly named Comet C/2022 E3 (ZTF), from mid-town Savannah, GA 5am Fri 27 Jan 2023. You need dark skies and binocs to see this one well ... it's neat, but don't think it will be a spectacular view. If you are in a city or near lights you won't see much.
Hurricane
#Otis
exploded yesterday - tripling wind speed (60-170mph), but that means nine times more wind *energy* ... likely damage approaching $15 Billion USD to
#Acapulco
#Mexico
... details on blog.
There was a magnitude 7.2 near
#Alaska
, resulting in a small - under one foot - tsunami along the Alaska coast, but no threat to the rest of the Pacific (including
#Hawaii
). Economic impacts appear minor.
11am update, hurricane warnings dropped, watching rain and accumulations, rotation (potential tornadoes) from
#Debby
passage over
#Florida
#Georgia
#SouthCarolina
. Discussion on the blog.
#Debby
FL landfall and outlook for
#Georgia
and points north (
#SouthCarolina
). TLDR: typical Cat 1 landfall in
#Florida
, still some uncertainty who is going to get hit by the worst rain but somewhere between Brunswick and Charleston.
Don't bother to click for the latest on TD9 (
#Hermine
or
#Ian
) if you read the blog this morning, nothing changed except the line on the map was extended a little.
#Florida
is still doomed on this track. We won't have anything substantive to say until tomorrow.
How are space nukes and Navalny related to
#Assange
? Both stories require knowledgeable, nuanced, balanced reporting that is independent of government narratives of the day. That requires an independent press free from intimidation and threats.
Another round of thunderstorms, this time through south/coastal GA/SC and
#Savannah
area. LSR's as of this morning ... yellow is thunderstorm damage, red is lightning, grey hail ... still power out in places, so be careful at traffic lights (not that anybody in SAV uses them).
Tropical Storm
#Bret
no longer forecast to become a hurricane; TV weathercasters desperate for face time and bloggers dependent on ads and clicks inconsolable ...
Just a reminder social media is a TERRIBLE way to get news! But since you're here ... the thing off the US East coast has little chance (although parts left behind continues to cause problems in
#Florida
). There is a 50% chance for something in the SW Gulf of Mexico next week.
Doomwatch: looks like a storm might bother
#Meico
and
#Texas
. There is a disturbance forecast to form that has some potential to cause angst in
#Florida
and
#Georgia
, but models are mixed and no magic words in the forecast. Click for details ...
@NinaByzantina
I did an analysis of Putin in the context of rational actor theory on my blog, and the vitriol from the pro-Ukrainian crowd was filled with homoerotic insults. It's sad - you'd think in that they would know in the west they don't have to live in the closet any more.