I was 100% accurate in predicting Joe Biden's 206-232 electoral vote victory in 2020.
Today, I have Trump winning the 2024 election with 312 electoral votes.
2024 Election Forecast
🟥Trump 312✅
🟦Harris 226
Trump is on tack to win all 7 swing states and potentially even the
TRUMP SKYROCKETS, NOW LEADS BY 16% ON POLYMARKET
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 57.7%
🟦Harris 41.9%
Trump has taken a commanding lead and has become the clear favorite to win this election.
TRUMP TAKES A BIG LEAD IN THE POLLS
2024 Election Map Based On Polls
🟥Trump 302 (270 to Win)
🟦Harris 236
Trump leads in 6 of 7 swing states. He only needs 3 or 4.
#BREAKING
: TRUMP TAKES THE LEAD IN MICHIGAN
RealClearPolitics now has Trump winning 296 electoral votes. The former president will likely also flip Wisconsin and Nevada soon.
This is my 2024 Election Forecast. Trump is on track to win 312 electoral votes.
As for Harris, she will perform worse than every Democrat since Michael Dukakis in 1988.
According to this projection, Trump will flip Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, Michigan, and
This is my 2024 Election Forecast, as of October 1. Trump is on track to win the presidency with 312 electoral votes.
As for Harris, she will perform worse than every Democrat since Michael Dukakis in 1988.
According to this projection, Trump will flip Nevada, Arizona,
#1
MOST ACCURATE POLLSTER: TRUMP ON TRACK TO WIN BIG
Michigan: 🟥Trump +3.4
Pennsylvania: 🟥Trump +2.9
Wisconsin: 🟥Trump +1.5
Arizona: 🟥Trump +1.2
Georgia: 🟥Trump +0.6
North Carolina: 🟦Harris +2.4
Nevada: 🟦Harris +2.8
AtlasIntel was the most accurate pollster in the 2020
TRUMP LEADS IN NEWEST PENNSYLVANIA POLL
2024 Election in Pennsylvania
🟥Trump 48% (+2)
🟦Harris 46%
Without Pennsylvania, Harris has essentially no realistic pathways to 270 electoral votes.
889 LV | September 4-6 | co/efficient
This is the 2024 Election Map Based on Current Polling Averages.
2024 Electoral College
🟥Trump 281 ✅
🟦Harris 257
For the first time ever, polling averages predict a Trump victory.
TRUMP SURGES, LEADS BY 6% IN NEVADA
2024 Election in Nevada
🟥Trump 49% (+6)
🟦Harris 43%
The Wall Street Journal/Fabrizio, Lee & Associates | September 28-October 8 | 600 LV
23 days until the election... TRUMP LEADS BY 10% ON
@POLYMARKET
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 54.7%
🟦Harris 44.7%
This is his largest lead since August 3. With the election just weeks away, Trump is surging at the perfect moment.
TRUMP LEADS HARRIS BY 3% NATIONWIDE.
2024 General Election
🟥Trump 49% (+3)
🟦Harris 46%
If Trump wins the popular vote by even 1%, he is almost sure to win the election.
1,893 LV | August 15-21 | Rasmussen Reports
This is the 2024 election map based on the newest poll from all 50 states.
Trump is on track to win 302 electoral votes, clinching a second four-year term.
He's well positioned to flip Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, and Pennsylvania, while the only swing state Harris wins
TRUMP SMASHES HARRIS IN NEW RCP 2024 ELECTION MAP
2024 Election
🟥Trump 302
🟦Harris 236
Harris is losing in every swing state except Wisconsin, which will flip to Trump soon.
TRUMP LEADS HARRIS BY 4% NATIONALLY
2024 General Election
🟥Trump 49% (+4)
🟦Harris 45%
@Rasmussen_Poll
, who conducted this poll, have consistently been among the most accurate in both 2016 and 2020.
1,885 LV | August 8-14 | Rasmussen Reports
NEW YORK TIMES POLL HAS TRUMP LEADING BY 5% IN ARIZONA
2024 Election in Arizona
🟥Trump 51% (+5)
🟦Harris 46%
The New York Times/Siena College | October 7-10 | 808 LV
THIS IS HUGE: Trump surges to take the lead in the popular vote.
2024 Popular Vote
🟥Trump 47% (+2)
🟦Harris 45%
Previous Poll (10/6): 🟦Harris +2
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | October 21 | 1,273 LV
TRUMP LEADS BY 8.2% ON
@POLYMARKET
, HIS LARGEST LEAD SINCE AUGUST 3.
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 53.8% (+8.2)
🟦Harris 45.6%
The Trump comeback has officially begun!
This is my updated 2024 Election Forecast. Trump is on track to win with 297 electoral votes.
As for Harris, she will lose every swing state except Michigan.
According to this projection, Trump will flip Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania.
He is also within
TRUMP SKYROCKETS IN ARIZONA ON
@Polymarket
Odds of Winning
🔴Trump 64% (+27)
🔵Harris 37%
On August 18, Trump and Harris both had a 50% chance to win. Now, Trump’s odds top Harris’ by 27%.
SHOCK POLL: Trump leads BIG, per the New York Times (A+)
Arizona
🟥Trump 50% (+5)
🟦Harris 45%
Georgia
🟥Trump 49% (+4)
🟦Harris 45%
North Carolina
🟥Trump 49% (+2)
🟦Harris 47%
The New York Times/Siena College | September 17-21 | ~700 LV (each)
TRUMP LEADS BY 14% IN FLORIDA, PER NEW YORK TIMES POLL
2024 Election in Florida
🟥Trump 55% (+14)
🟦Harris 41%
The New York Times/Siena College | September 29-October 4 | 617 LV
LEFTIST POLLSTER: TRUMP WILL WIN THE POPULAR VOTE
2024 Popular Vote
🟥Trump 48% (+1)
🟦Harris 47%
If Trump wins the popular vote, or even gets close, it will be nearly impossible for Harris to cross 270 electoral votes.
Quinnipiac University | September 19-22 | 1,728 LV
TRUMP TAKES THE LEAD IN WISCONSIN
2024 Election in Wisconsin
🟥Trump 47% (+1)
🟦Harris 46%
This is a state Harris cannot afford to lose. For context, 2020 polling averages said Biden would win Wisconsin by 7%; he eventually won it by <1%.
Trafalgar Group | September 28-30 |
TRUMP SURGES IN MICHIGAN, LEADS BY 4%
2024 Election in Michigan
🟥Trump 51% (+4)
🟦Harris 47%
Previous Poll: 🟦Harris +5
🎊FOLLOW ME FOR MORE UPDATES LIKE THIS!
Quinnipiac University | October 3-7 | 1,073 LV
TRUMP LEADS IN NEW YORK TIMES POLL AGAIN
2024 Presidential Election
🟥Trump 47% (+1)
🟦Harris 46%
In the EIGHTH New York Times poll in a row, Trump leads among registered voters.
The New York Times/Siena College | September 11-16 | 2,437 RV
TRUMP LEADS IN NEW PENNSYLVANIA POLL
2024 Election in Pennsylvania
🟥Trump 50% (+2)
🟦Harris 48%
If Trump can win the keystone state by 2%, there is no doubt he will win the election.
InsiderAdvantage | September 14-15 | 800 LV
NEW: TRUMP ALSO TAKES THE LEAD IN WISCONSIN
2024 Election in Wisconsin
🟥Trump 49% (+2)
🟦Harris 47%
Last Poll: 🟦Harris +1
Quinnipiac University | October 3-7 | 1,073 LV
TRUMP EXPANDS HIS LEAD ON
@POLYMARKET
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 50.1% (+0.9)
🟦Harris 49.2%
Trump also has a clear lead in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona. Harris doesn't have a clear lead in any swing state.
ACCURATE POLL: TRUMP LEADS BY 3% IN GEORGIA
2024 Election in Georgia
🟥Trump 50% (+3)
🟦Harris 47%
RMG was spot on in predicting the results of the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoff Elections.
RMG Research | October 7-10 | 731 LV
THIS IS CRAZY: IT IS NOW A 60-40 RACE IN FAVOR OF TRUMP.
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 59.7%
🟦Harris 40.1%
Trump's surge continues on Polymarket with 20 days to go until Election Day.
This is my Mid-October 2024 Election Forecast.
Trump leads in all 7 swing states, and the races in Minnesota and Virginia are tightening.
Harris' momentum is truly dead, and Trump is on the rise with 19 days to go until the election.
TRUMP LEADS IN ANOTHER ACCURATE PENNSYLVANIA POLL
2024 Election in Pennsylvania
🟥Trump 46% (+3)
🟦Harris 43%
Tralfalgar Group | October 17-19 | 1,084 LV
NEW YORK IS IN PLAY, new poll finds.
2024 Election in New York
🟦Harris 52% (+12)
🟥Trump 40%
A state Biden won by 23%, New York is becoming increasingly competitive. Harris will likely pull off the worst Democratic performance in the Empire State since 1988.
Siena College |
TRUMP LEADS BY 4% IN NORTH CAROLINA
2024 Election in North Carolina
🟥Trump 50% (+4)
🟦Harris 46%
Trump is at the crucial 50% mark and is on track to winning the tar heel state for a third time in a row.
612 LV | August 26-27 | SoCal Strategies
BREAKING: Trump retakes the lead in the
@RCPolitics
2024 Top Battlegrounds polling average.
2024 Top Battlegrounds
🟥Trump 47.9% (+0.2)
🟦Harris 47.7%
For context: Biden led by 2.3.% in the final 2020 Battlegrounds average. Clinton led by 1.1% in 2016.
After the 1st Trump-Harris Debate, Trump continues to lead in my 2024 Election Forecast.
He is on track to win 312 Electoral Votes.
The Former President will win all 7 swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
Harris'
11 DAYS TO GO... TRUMP IS DOMINATING OVER HARRIS
2024 Election (Odds to Win)
🟥Trump 61.5% (+22.8)
🟦Harris 38.7%
He continues to lead in all 7 swing states.
2020's most accurate pollster shows Trump leading by 3% nationwide.
2024 Popular Vote (AtlasIntel)
🟥Trump 51% (+3)
🟦Harris 48%
Per Nate Silver, a Trump +3 popular vote scenario would give him a 99% chance at winning the electoral college.
Odds of Winning
🟥Trump 99.9%
#BREAKING
TRUMP IS THE FAVORITE ON
@Polymarket
AGAIN!
This comes after Harris released her first economic policy proposals, which have been received negatively by observers on both sides.
TRUMP LEADS IN NEW MICHIGAN POLL
2024 Election in Michigan
🟥Trump 47% (+1)
🟦Harris 46%
If Michigan goes to Trump, he will likely win at least 310 electoral votes and secure the presidency for a second time.
600 LV | August 23-26 | EPIC-MRA
TRUMP LEADS BY 3% IN ARIZONA IN NEW POLL
2024 Election in Arizona
🟥Trump 51% (+3)
🟦Harris 48%
Trump is on track to flip this sun belt state that he lost by a narrow 0.3% margin in 2020, showcasing his resurgence.
720 LV | August 25-28 | Emerson College/The Hill
TRUMP LEADS HARRIS IN **PENNSYLVANIA**
2024 Election in Pennsylvania
🟥Trump 47% (+1)
🟦Harris 46%
@Rasmussen_Poll
, who conducted this poll, was among the most accurate in 2020. Their final poll predicted a Biden +3 victory in Pennsylvania, very close to his eventual 1.2% win
TRUMP LEADS IN 4 OF 6 KEY SWING STATES ON POLYMARKET
New betting odds show Trump is favored to win 66% of the key swing states that will determine the election.
TRUMP TAKES THE LEAD IN WISCONSIN, THIS IS CRUSHING FOR KAMALA
2024 Election in Wisconsin
🟥Trump 49% (+1)
🟦Harris 48%
Emerson College | October 21-22 | 800 LV
TRUMP LEADS IN NORTH CAROLINA, FOR THE 3RD POLL IN A ROW
2024 Election In North Carolina
🟥Trump 49% (+3)
🟦Harris 46%
TIPP Insights | September 11-13 | 1,721 RV
#NEW
New Polymarket odds show Trump on track to winning Nevada. He has never won the Silver state in either 2016 or 2020. And Nevada has not voted for Republicans since 2004 with George W Bush, which would make it a first in 2 decades.
🟥Trump 53% (+5%)
🟦Harris 48%
Trump leads in
@Polymarket
's 2024 Election Forecast.
Odds of Winning
🟥Trump 50% (+3)
🟦Harris 47%
Trump is on track to win all but 2 swing states: Nevada, Arizona, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Georgia.
TRUMP IS PLOWING HARRIS IN THE 2024 ELECTION
Polymarket's new forecast has Trump winning ALL 7 swing states.
He has a 60% chance of winning the presidency; Harris is at just 40%.
#BREAKING
: TRUMP LEADS IN ALMOST ALL SWING STATES ON POLYMARKET
Trump leads in all but 2 swing states according to PolyMarket odds. Trump leads nationally by 2 points as well.
TRUMP TAKES BACK THE LEAD IN ARIZONA & NEVADA ON
@Polymarket
This comes as Harris' economic plan is rejected by observers on both sides. It seems that the Harris train is beginning to lose steam, as Trump continues to gain back ground.
Pennsylvania Voter Registration has been BOOMING
8,060 new democrat voters registered, whereas republicans gained a WHOPPING 15,890.
Great news for Trump's campaign.
The DNC has done nothing to improve confidence in the Harris-Walz ticket.
2024 Election Odds (+/- since DNC Day 1)
🟥Trump 51% (+3)
🟦Harris 48% (-2)
Trump also took the lead in Nevada, Arizona, and Pennsylvania during the convention.
TRUMP IS ABOUT TO WIN THE POPULAR VOTE
He leads in 4 of the last 5 national polls. Harris' average lead has shrunk to just 0.9%.
If she wins the popular vote by this margin, she will certainly lose the electoral college.
22 Days to Go... TRUMP LEADS IN 6 OF 7 SWING STATES ON POLYMARKET
The only swing state Harris is ahead in is Nevada, where she has just a 51% chance of winning.