I keep reading "Kawhi's the best playoff scorer since Jordan." Last 10 playoff games:
Kawhi 29.7 ppg 60.1% TS
Curry: 34.1 ppg 63.5% TS
LeBron 35.6 ppg 62.7% TS
Kawhi's a *great* scorer, but novelty shapes narrative too. We just take legends for granted after a while.
I want to apologize to Fred. I’ll try to do better. I don’t know if he wanted more
@JVando
talk on the podcast or less. Maybe he wants another
@pskills43
video.
Either way, it will be sleepless nights until I get this right.
The Warriors are +21.0 per 48 minutes with Steph Curry on the floor.
In 29 years of plus-minus data, the best season on record is +18.5, set by Steph Curry in 2017.
Hilarious seeing criticism of Simone Biles — one of the most successful athletes ever, despite incredible diversity — from people who idolize Michael Jordan.
“Could you imagine if MJ quit on his team for mental reasons!?”
Well, yeah. Netflix has a documentary about it. 😂
It’s obviously a foul. He was clearly squaring to shoot an 80 footer at the opposite basket and the defender’s arms are connected to his torso which is not allowed.
(I know it doesn’t say that in any rule book, but trust me. Also, fans love this.)
Jokic is a battering ram at the basket who shoots like Dirk Nowitzki and passes like Larry Bird, and half the basketball world is like “definitely not a top-5 player!” 😂
Not sure if this has been corrected, but it's just flat out wrong.
Jokic was 6th and 10th in points per game. He was top-5 in total points both years.
Dirk was 11th in PPG (by 0.5 points) but 5th in total points.
This graphic is misleading if you don't know the context. It's the 17th-best differential this century.
Recent leaders in differential:
2023 LAL +5.6
2022 UTA +4.1
2021 NOP +5.0
2020 OKC +5.3
2019 DAL +3.3
2018 CHA +8.8
2017 CHA +5.6
2016 HOU +4.7
2015 SAC +6.1
2014 HOU +8.6
📽️Good morning! In a collab with the
@NBA
(!) I broke down Nikola Jokic's historically great offense right now and how his broad skill set makes him nearly impossible to guard.
Michael Jordan would probably average 50, maybe 60 points per game today, because you just take the highest recent scoring average and add what feels like a good number (10? 20?) without any context or thought whatsover.
Nostalgia is the best drug! 🍻🤪
😂 Ironically, this is during the heart of the Lakers’ dynasty with Mikan - their 2nd of 5 titles coming in this season.
Celtics wouldn’t start winning for another decade, after radical changes in shot clock, racial profile and economics.
Credit
@Squared2020
for the clip.
🎥 I had to rewatch to check, but yup, Curry scored or created 33 straight points in last night’s 4th. I broke down how that one quarter epitomizes his unique impact on the game.
Paul George: “Tip my hat off to the shots [Dame] made. Tough ones...It was his night.”
He was then asked “is there anything you can do on 37 ft 3s” & answered “it’s a bad shot.”
Perhaps my least favorite twitter thing is taking something out of context & dunking on it.
One of the coolest illusions in magic is the offseason gym edit. It’s a technique where videographers edit out all misses, either against subpar defense or no defense at all, creating the illusion that a player can’t miss.
The effect is spellbinding on audiences.
Just for the record...one of these players had arguably the GOAT scoring season in which he led the league in scoring AND efficiency (!), which has never been replicated post merger.
For perspective, Kobe finished 87th in efficiency in 2006.
@WolfDaron_5
@DezBryant
Being the best shooter of all time doesn’t make you a better player. Check the tape of when Kobe averaged damn near 50 FOR A MONTH. He put up 81. He is one of the most prolific scorers of all time. The answer is, no. Steph isn’t better
It can be incredibly hard to break free from abusive relationships. Incredibly hard.
I think Mychelle Johnson showed great courage to try to end the cycle.
This weekend I made my film debut (!) in the new Wilt Chamberlain documentary GOLIATH. 🤯
Hope you'll check it out -- it's a 3-part series, with lots about his off-court relationships and impact. Streaming on Paramount Plus with Showtime.
In the 2015 1st round, the Warriors were +77 with Draymond Green on the floor and -45 in the 26 minutes he sat on the bench.
Per 100 possessions, that comes out to +23.6 with Green and -76.9 without him...
...making his on/off for the series +100.5.
📽️In his first 11 games, he's tormented superstars and posted Hall of Fame rim protection numbers. He's 5th in the league in offensive rebounding. His athleticism is breathtaking. He is Ausar Thompson.
Something I’ve noticed doing the Peaks project:
History has basically been blind to this kind of impact when discussing “clutch” plays and “great playoff runs.”
Here's the alarming trend we're seeing right now in whistles:
The change in shooting fouls (per 2-pt attempt) in the last *4 months* is larger than the change between the lowest fouling and highest fouling month from 2008 to the 2020 shutdown.
*opens "playoff tweets" file*
*copy and paste*
Players who haven't led teams to titles can still be good enough to do it. Harden can obviously do it (see 2018). Giannis too. This thinking insisted that Dirk Nowitzki (!) and Kevin Garnett (!!) couldn't lead teams to titles.
📽️ Manu Ginobili might be the most interesting case study in NBA history -- an old rookie with a unique game who came off the bench sometimes, but in retrospect looks like a superstar.
The Bulls lost the first 3 games of the 1991 season. Michael Jordan never had a 3-game losing streak in Chicago again.
An incredible 626 games (including playoffs) without dropping 3 in a row.
🎥The Warriors defense has been historically good to start the year, so I went deep on their cutting edge tactics, and why Draymond Green is positioned to win Defensive Player of the Year.
Thanks so much for all the kind words and support, not just yesterday, but throughout the journey. Stuff like this only happens because of your views, likes and (massively entertaining) comments. 🙏
📽️Good morning! In a collab with the
@NBA
(!) I broke down Nikola Jokic's historically great offense right now and how his broad skill set makes him nearly impossible to guard.
📽How can Luka Doncic put up video game numbers, yet the Mavs barely change when he goes to the bench?
We look at his defense, off ball game, and more to tackle this strange paradox.
Devin Booker was incandescent last night to close out the Lakers.
Incredible shot making, yet he didn’t force anything or heat check. Great movement off ball.
Played 46 minutes and finished with 47 points on 91% true shooting! 😳
🎞️The final profile in the Greatest Peaks series is none other than Steph Curry. A quick 36 minute breakdown of his game-changing offensive skills and overall impact:
I just found out that on 2k Magic has a 98 rating for perimeter D and lateral quickness (!!) and now I can’t stop thinking about a generation being propagandized by video games. 😮
🎞️ Magic Johnson was never close to leading the league in scoring, yet he might have been the greatest offensive player ever.
Episode 5 of The Greatest Peaks takes a look at how, and the relenting brilliance of his attack.
“Statistically” can’t just mean the perspective of a single stat.
For instance, Durant’s shot 45.6% on “wide open” 3s since they were tracked in 2014, OPJ 42.2%.
Ben Simmons since 2019:
with Embiid in 145 games:
16 pts/75, +3% rTS, 8.3 ast/75
+1.1 on/off (+6.1 on), 76ers played at 56-win pace
without Embiid in 49 games:
19 pts/75, +2% rTS, 7.2 ast/75
-4.3 on/off (-3.2 on), 76ers played at 39-win pace
“Up next on this big network sports show, someone says something completely delusional because outrage is irresistible and we need more clicks.
Will it work? Find out after the break!”
Newest video is on Nikola Jokic. I take a hard look at all the passes -- so many passes -- his incredible guard-like offensive profile, and the pros and cons of his defense.
📽️Victor Wembanyama took 3rd year leap...in his 3rd month!
We looked at the rapid growth that's forging one of the most unique offensive weapons the NBA has ever seen.
I have to eat crow on Rondo this season. His shooting has been consistently better, he's played within the offense and hasn't been a defensive issue in the playoffs.
James Harden is sitting No. 1 all-time in scoring rate right now, on pace for the only season in NBA history over 35 points per 75 possessions. (!) He's doing it on better efficiency (relative to league) than the next 3 guys.
Permanently retire PER. That's my Xmas wish, New Year's wish & Trevi Fountain wish.
PER was a slight upgrade over PPG to rank players, but it's heavily biased toward volume scorers & blind to high-value areas like defense, creation, & spacing. I'll publish details next month.
New pod with Ben Taylor on Steph’s record and Golden State’s hybrid D, plus Jokic's MVP follow-up, Cade, Celtics changes, Utah’s offense, dinner stories, and more. We recorded before Suns-Blazers and late night protocol news. Thanks
@ElGee35
for joining.
Most people still don’t intuit how close and how variable game outcomes are.
Merely 50% 3-pt shooting (!) from Fred essentially swings the series to MIL in 6. Remember that when you read sweeping narratives about these teams/players.
#winningbias
The
@Raptors
Fred Vanvleet shot 14-17 (82.4%) from 3-point range in Games 4-6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the highest such percentage over a three-game span in NBA postseason history by a player with at least 15 attempts.
📽️The Kings-Clippers 351-point game epitomizes why offenses are unstoppable and there's “no defense�� in today's NBA. Inside the unparalleled skill and cutting-edge tactics that are shattering scoring records.
In 1961
@RealBillRussell
's Celtics were playing an exhibition in Lexington, KY. Blacks couldn't eat in restaurants there so the team arranged for the players to be able to eat in the hotel.
But then when they showed up to eat, the manager told them they don’t serve blacks. 1/5
I thing JVG and Jackson hurt the league by shining a light on load management and panning it instead of explaining its value.
“Back in my day” talk reinforces biases in older fans instead of highlighting the new strengths of the game.
Thoughts?
FTs are only half of the data. FG% near the hoop has spiked in the last 3-4 years.
Players adjust to what’s a foul and then provide less resistance on D. They’re smart enough to not send players to the line excessively & foul out, but that means easier shots on non-foul plays.
🎞️It's LeBron time! 29 minutes on his South Beach talents: Why he's one of the greatest scorers ever, his cerebral approach to playmaking, and his versatility & impact as a defender.
Like Dave, I'm also looking forward to a play-finisher winning the first ever Western Conference Finals MVP instead of the best player in the series. 🤗
🎞️Greatest Peaks finale, where I wrap up the series by attempting to "rank" the best NBA peaks since the merger. 🤓😬
Also big thanks to Patreon subscribers who voted -- I think their rankings were incredibly insightful.
A commenter reminded me of something that was left on the cutting room floor.
An easy way to see how valuable Curry's 3-point style is (instead of dominating at the rim like many traditional stars) is to view his 3-pt attempts as if they were 2-point shots at the rim:
🎞️Michael Jordan time! 24 minutes on exactly why he was the GOAT scorer, his fit in the triangle, his passing tendencies, and of course, his defensive strengths...and weaknesses.
Ironically, the idea that needed to sink in for me was Kawhi > Harden as a scorer.
In the playoffs as All-Stars, Kawhi’s hit 30 43% of the time, Harden 41%.
And Kawhi’s efficiency is way higher.
Kevin Durant struggled in OKC when defenses focused on him in the playoffs. But with Steph Curry’s unrivaled gravity (and Klay’s too), Durant’s been able to thrive in the last few playoffs.