Egypt's military is a political actor. Egypt's police forces are political actors. Egypt's intelligence services are political actors.
Any security or defence analysis that ignores their outsized, regressive political roles is fundamentally flawed.
#الاخيتار
أسباب انهيار الكتيبة 103 صاعقة في معركة البرث:
- ضعف التخطيط العملياتي و عدم احتساب خطوات العدو المحتملة وهي اولي مسئوليات قائد الكتيبه (أحمد #المنسي)
- الضعف التكتيكي المزمن داخل الجيش و قوات النخبة
- أخطاء متكررة في إعداد أمن الكمائن و ترك مسارات المركبات مفتوحه
More examples of longstanding tactical frailties in North Sinai:
No security, zero situational awareness, unarmed, abstaining from protective equipment, and poor reaction to enemy fire.
الإمارات تجند مصر لأهدافها الإقليمية
إثيوبيا تفرض على مصر الأمر الواقع
تركيا تكشف عجز مصر في ليبيا
العراق تحترق ما بين إيران و الوليات المتحدة و مصر صامته
فلسطين تباع و مصر متواطئه
مصر تستعيد دورها الريادي في منطقة الشرق الأوسط
This is a man who has supposedly been trained at staff level abroad in the UK and US.
Becoming increasingly obvious that he did not write his own dissertation on democracy in the Arab world.
- عدم وجود مستلزمات طبية مع الجنود و ضعف إجراءات الإخلاء الطبى مما يؤدي إلى تراكم أعداد الضحايا
- سرعة الخسائر أدت إلى انهيار سيطرة القيادة مما فرض على الجنود القتال الفردى خارج المجموعات أي بدون تنسيق أو تعاون فعلى
___________
أخطاء متكررة منذ 2012 و مستمرة حتى الآن دون حساب
#الإختيار #المنسي #ملحمة_البرث
معركة البرث و شجاعة رجال الكتيبه 103 صاعقة في وجه العدو والموت المؤكد لن تنسى.
لكن خسائر قوات النخبة الفاضحة في ذالك اليوم مثل متكرر لفشل و إهمال الجيش في إعداد الجنود المرسلة إلى شمال سيناء.
فشل مسؤول عن أعداد ضحايا مرعبة على مدار سبع سنوات.
Al-Watiya was the main air base for LNA in western Libya. Its loss is a major setback for Haftar's Tripoli campaign and an embarrassment for the UAE.
For Egypt it means the first Turkish military base in North Africa could end up next door. Disaster.
Operation Sirli
A clandestine French military intelligence operation aided the Egyptian Air Force in extra-judicially killing civilians suspected of smuggling activity across the Libyan border area.
- نقص التعزيزات الهندسية و المعدات الأساسية
- تأخر قوات الرد السريع المتكرر بسبب العبوات الناسفة و الكمائن من قبل الجماعات المتطرفة وهو أمر مستمر لم يعالج
- تأخر القوات الجوية بسبب البطء المؤسسي و سوء التعاون بين الأفرع الرئيسية
Thread
The Egyptian Armed Forces conducts amphibious exercise in the Mediterranean sea.
Again, a symbolically significant event but one that's focused inwards and unlikely to deter regional rivals.
A closer examination of the photos can help tell us why.
إن الطريقة التي انهزم بها الجيش، والسرعة التي انهارت بها قيادته، وفداحة الخسارة في الأرواح والمعدات والأرض — كل هذه العوامل تجبرنا على النظر لـ٦٧ على أنها أكثر وأعمق من مجرد هزيمة جيش منكسر.
إنها هزيمة نظام سياسي واجتماعي وفكري، هزيمة رؤيتنا للعالم ولمكاننا فيه.
Mini-thread
pictures taken from an Egyptian army officer's social media account is the source of some controversy - the photograph appears to have been geotagged to Tobruk, Libya.
Here's why it probably isn't what it seems.
Footage from North Sinai appears to show heavy clashes and a large explosion (possible SVBIED) in the direction of Rabia checkpoint and camp in Bir Abd.
عاجبني قوي الصمت التام في السوشيل ميديا / صفحات الدفاع / التلفزيون بعد القصف العنيف لقوات النظام السوري من الجيش التركي.
تعرض لما يكون في خسائر في صفوف الأتراك
تعمل من بنها لما الأتراك يمسحو الأرض بالنظام
ازدواجية التحليل و عدم الإعتراف بقوة الخصم هيودينا في داهية
مفيش فايدة
Interesting tank was captured GNA from LNA near Libyan Tripoli. AFAIK it's old Egyptian upgrade of T-54\55 with German AEG/Telefunken white/infra-red searchlight. On last photo for comparision upgraded T-54 in Egyptian service.
Every hour Egyptian authorities delay the entry of injured Palestinians is an hour of potentially life-saving treatment squandered.
Let the medical teams do their jobs.
Incredibly rare footage from inside an Egyptian Navy modified Romeo (Type 33 ES5B) class as it fires a UGM-84 Harpoon anti-ship missile.
Egypt originally bought these submarines from China in the 80s and later modified them to use munitions from the United States.
Lina Atallah, chief editor of Mada Masr one of the last sources of independent news in Egypt, arrested by security forces outside of Tora prison whilst conducting an interview.
Note that the Egyptian parliament statement on military intervention in Libya specified potential action against "criminal militias" and "foreign sponsored terror organisations" only.
No mention of Turkey and an open timeline.
Seven years the Egyptian military has been fighting in Sinai yet they continue to make the same amateurish mistakes.
Continually proving its a force that is tactically frail if not outright incompetent.
Very disturbing footage depicting the state execution (by rope) of ex-army sf officer turned terror org leader Hesham Eshmawy has been circulating since the early hours of this morning.
A very dangerous precedent set here.
Everywhere Turkey is now expanding militarily Egypt had either retreated from, neglected when they needed help most, or played a divisive role in.
Four decades of broken policy has left vacuums in areas of vital national security and created conditions for rivals to enter.
Thread
The challenge of manning Egypt’s new warships requires a navy capable of recruiting and training thousands of new sailors and personnel in a short amount of time.
Can the EN do it? The odds are not in their favour.
Il Sole 24 Ore and Analisidifesa report a potential 9+ billion Euro defence deal between Egypt and Italy.
What would be the largest defence deal in Egyptian history could include Eurofighter Typhoon jets and FREMM frigates among other major procurements.
Devastating
@MadaMasr
report on Sinai Province's actual control of several villages in Bir Abd.
Includes confirmation of an army NCO (village local) being executed and describes how residents are attempting to flee from the violence.
credit:
@obretix
Also note that just because Sisi claims an act is legitimate does not practically make it so.
An Egyptian intervention in Libya would be against an internationally recognised government and its NATO ally.
Emotive arguments don't change this.
Things that I would have never imagined controversial:
More than 20 special forces soldiers killed in a single attack means something is majorly wrong.
Things that are actually controversial:
More than 20 special forces soldiers killed in a single attack means something...
A reminder that pre-coup Egypt would have been one of the first export countries for Turkish drones.
What is now the most advanced/successful programme in Europe and one that far exceeds what Egypt already has or is looking into.
Huge - KSA blocks the sale of 4 German TKMS Meko frigates to Egypt!
Apparently the deal was signed in September but relied on financing from KSA. They were unhappy with the German reaction to Khashoggi so froze all arms purchases, including Egypt's.
UAE Nimr armoured personnel carriers mounted with Kornet-E anti tank guided missiles engaging coastal targets.
Part of a recent combined arms Ex with Jordan.
Two reasons Egyptian officials and military analysts/enthusiasts deny direct Israeli military involvement in Sinai;
1) Personally uncomfortable with any relationship between Egypt and Israel
2) Embarrassing to admit "powerful" Egyptian Army needs help in its own back yard
Did you know?
From 1982 - 1987 the Egyptian Air Force had 29 trained pilots for its 39 new F-16 fighter jets. Well short of the 4:1 ratio standard and literally having more planes than drivers.
Lack of transparency =/= lack of problems.
أظهرت وثيقة صادرة عن وزارة الخارجية الإيطالية، أن مصر حققت رقماً قياسياً على مستوى مشتريات الأسلحة والذخائر والنظم المعلوماتية الأمنية الإيطالية في العام الماضي، فتخطى الـ69 مليون يورو، وهو أكثر من ضعف أكبر مبلغ دفعته مصر نظير الأسلحة الإيطالية في عام واحد على الإطلاق.
المصريون يدفعون ثمن إجرام أجهزتهم الأمنية مرتين، بالدم والمال أيضا!
السيسي يشتري صفقات أسلحة من إيطاليا بأضعاف مادفعه في الأعوام السابقة من أجل إخماد التحقيقات حول قضية ريجيني ...
#مصر #ثورة_23_يوليو
When President
#Sisi
was questioned by
@60Minutes
on why Egypt still hasn’t defeated a small insurgency in Sinai he redirected to the US-led Afghanistan mission.
This short (and non-exhaustive) thread will explain why the comparison doesn’t work.
*whispers softly*
The Egyptian Navy doesn't have the capacity or assets to continuously operate two fully independent fleets outside littoral waters.
*leaves before people get mad*
I share this every now and again because it's a very succinct encapsulation of Egyptian tactical frailties.
In a single two minute video you have multiple examples of shoddy training, poor discipline, and abysmal defensive preparations.
I don't think we should totally discount the potential for an escalation that could lead to a wider war.
For several months I have said this is unlikely and still think so but the current situation could end in various sides miscalculating their way to disaster.
Odd answer by Sisi on suspects being killed during arrests.
Appears to call extra judicial killings during arrests legal as victims are then referred to judiciary which issues death penalty.
Claims legal framework exists in Egypt and International Law does not prohibit this.
The prevalence of COVID-19 within my family circles has unfortunately resulted in several deaths over the past two weeks.
The number of relatives reporting symptoms and isolating is also on the rise.
May be anecdotal but I believe many Egyptian families share this now.
The Egyptian military has a choice to make with its air force:
Continue extraordinary multi-source procurements in the quest of for (a questionable) political autonomy or build a capable combat ready force.
It cannot pretend to do both at the same time.
Mini-thread
The Egyptian Navy is set to launch its final Gowind class corvette from the Alexandria Shipyard.
In 2014, Egypt signed a €1b Euro contract with France's Naval Group to buy four Gowind 2500 corvettes.
A warning:
Turkey - Russia not diametrically opposed to each other in Libya.
Russia would welcome Turkish moves that scupper East Med pipeline to Europe.
Russia entrenching itself in Cyrenaica with Egyptian facilitation could backfire on Cairo and gas hub hopes.
Worth looking back at the scale of Egypt's posturing over Turkish intervention in Libya at the start of the year as compared to now.
The extravagant (and incoherent) exercises are completely gone.
Thread
The Egyptian Armed Forces conducts amphibious exercise in the Mediterranean sea.
Again, a symbolically significant event but one that's focused inwards and unlikely to deter regional rivals.
A closer examination of the photos can help tell us why.
Rare look inside Egypt's Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle programme.
On display is the Chengdu Wing Loong a Medium-Altitude Long-Endurance Unmanned Aerial Vehicle.
Narrator also claims Egypt has procured other modern types of UCAV.
In any nation that actually valued its soldiers not only would this be a major news story but also impetus for aggressive military rescue/retrieval operations.
The former I can understand due to media restrictions. The latter not happening is unforgivable.
Accountability!
How the kidnap and execution of soldiers in North Sinai can happen on a consistent basis without any accountability on the part of the army is incomprehensible.
الكيان
The massive defence ministry complex doesn't just centralise commands and departments.
Leaks from the ministry site to
@AbdullahElshrif
show opulent housing projects complete with multiple palaces, villas, and apartments.
All for senior/essential military officials.
Tactical lift
The Egyptian Air Force displays its fleet of
@AirbusDefence
CASA C-295 twin-turboprop tactical military transport aircraft.
The Egyptian Air Force operates the largest fleet of C-295 in the world with 24 aircraft.
Includes a short comment from me on some of the difficulties facing the Egyptian Air Force.
Three air accidents and mishaps within a matter of months including a new MiG-29 and Rafale.
The Egyptian military has tried to suppress news of all three.
Back in!
Thanks to everyone who stood up for me and sped this process up a bit. I still have no idea why it happened and I'm aware I wasn't the only account to get hit.
Normal service will resume shortly.
Sisi's speech was unsurprisingly filled with rhetoric that hinted to Egypt's hegemonic aspirations.
Whilst Egypt's importance has waned since the 60s imperial attitudes have not disappeared.
Have no right to claim Libya or Libyans as our own or as part of one nation.
Cairo will accept the de-facto partition of its neighbour and a Turkish military presence on its doorstep.
Acquiescing to the Emiratis and supporting the boneheaded war on Tripoli has been disastrous for its influence in Libya and wider regional stakes.
A senior Egyptian delegation visited Tripoli on Sunday, which one Egyptian official told Mada comes in response to Cairo’s objection to the UAE’s move to “impose civil war” on Libya. The visit comes amid mounting tensions around the Sirte-Jufra red line.
The Egyptian military's struggles in Sinai have had an adverse effect on its internal and international prestige.
A marked rise in analysis/commentary that is either critical of their capabilities or mocks their attempts at posturing.
More than a loss of lives and material.
Video leak of an Egyptian army officer mutilating and setting alight a body post-mortem in North Sinai.
The graphic footage appears to show the officer taking a finger as a trophy.
The body has not been identified.
Egyptian army thunderbolt special forces have adopted the US M110 Semi Automatic Sniper System/designated marksman rifle.
The Egyptians were familiarised with the rifle during joint exercises and training by US counterparts.
You cannot adequately discuss the legacy of the revolution - and counterrevolution - without discussing Sinai.
Neglected for decades, facing the brunt of a 'war on terror,' they were integral to the uprisings and now subject to the unrestrained cruelty of the Egyptian regime.