Dynasty Onion @DynastyOnion Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Dynasty Onion

@DynastyOnion

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Dynasty is an onion. Intending a respectful tone in all tweets. Just here to talk dynasty with sharp players.

Joined March 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Cognitive Biases and fantasy football. A thread. Survivorship Bias: Focus on the population who made it through some selection process while ignoring the population that did not. Example: "Day 3 draft capital isn't bad for WR, just look at Stefon Diggs and Tyreek Hill!"

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

4 months

@Ihartitz Rashee needs to reach out to Addison's PR team.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

8 months

@HaydenWinks But Twitter has been telling me Douglass is infallible because he drafted the OROY and the DROY (with high firsts).

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Dynasty content creators are developing a reputation for quitting leagues after a season or 2. Bailing on your startup after 1 or 2 years is like going out to eat and becoming too poor to afford to tip when the bill comes. You knew what you were getting into when you joined

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Ja'marr Chase has shown signs of being able to do what Justin Jefferson does best, but Jefferson will never do what Chase does best. Obviously both colossal studs, but I have Chase a tick higher. The QB lock in does play in too.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

8 months

Puka Nacua currently has 77 catches for 1027 yards. There are still 5 games left to play. This is a perfect example of an easily predictable gap between current and (near) future value. All it will take to go up is for us to reflect on his season from an offszn lens.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

I overpaid for Chase again. If overpaying for Chase is even possible. Gave London, Dobbins, Akers, Mid 2nd.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

PSA: Don't argue with however your commish resolves things. They are damned if they do and damned if they don't. Thank them for putting themselves in the position to have to decide, and swallow your complaints.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Imagine being annoyed by trade offers. Every trade offer is an opportunity. Counter it.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

4 months

Quinn Ewers He only reads half the field His accuracy is garbage He was told to return to school Let's stop listing this guy as a top 2025 QB. If Arch Manning isn't pushing Ewers in practice then I'm concerned about Arch too.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 month

One of the bigger edges in Dynasty is simply realizing when a strategy/tactic/process has become overly saturated and has "jumped the shark" and pivoting to a contrarian approach. So many of these tactics are only maximized when relatively few managers are using them.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

At least 80 percent of fairly valued trade offers are going to be rejected.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

I'm not sure what a more direct and explicit accusation of collusion would look like. I'm also not sure it is possible for such an accusation to come from a more serious and credible accuser.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Priority sells (at current value): Javonte Jameson Pickens Kupp Adams Pickett Daniel Jones Sells: Burks Jacobs ETN Priority buys (definitely gaining value): 2024 1sts 2025 1sts Buys (probably gain): Drake London Elijah Moore Moreau If owner sleeping: Ferguson Love Khalil H

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

3 months

Late 2024 1sts 📈📈 Ricky Pearsall 📈 Keon Coleman 📈 JaLynn Polk 📈 Malachi Corley 📈 Nix 📈 Burton 📈 Luke McCaffrey 📈 Brock Bowers 🟰 Nabers 🟰 Penix 🟰 Troy Franklin 📉📉 JaTavian Sanders 📉📉 Jaylen Wright 📉📉 Javon Baker 📉📉 Braelon Allen 📉 Theo Johnson 📉

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

3 months

How should you be spending your late 2nd to mid 3rd rookie capital? Should you be be drafting Day 3 RBs over Round 3 WRs? The historical data shows that this isn't even a question. We should be taking the Rd 3 WRs until they are gone (with the exception of Returners). 🧵

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Trading in dynasty is a skill - or made up of a combination of skills. This is most evident when you observe leaguemates who are always putting assets on the block but rarely ever manage to execute a trade. The most common form is sitting there waiting for a perfect offer.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

PSA: Joining a startup is a commitment. If you're not sure you're going to stay in the league for multiple years, don't join. I see too many people quitting on a league after one or two years. Then these same people are joining more. Stop it. This is extremely rude.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

It's a copycat league... ...and the super bowl winner just did it with one of the worst WR rooms in the league and a great "big slot" Tight End.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Why are people letting Tyrion Davis-Price fall to the mid/late 3rd round? He's a day 2 RB taken by the 49ers. We should have learned by now that you want all of their RBs.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

"Kenny Gainwell is going to be the Eagles primary running back next year!"

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

Puca Nakua quadrupled in value (from a 2024 2nd to a 2024 1st+) overnight. 🚀🚀🚀 We were planning to try to get a 2024 first if there was a good outcome vs SF, but the outcome blew away all expectations. I am shifting to first targeting the earliest of 2024 1sts with offers.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Analysts are the worst at responding to trade offers. It's frankly an embarrassment to the Fantasy football take manufacturing industry. PSA: It's straight up rude to join more leagues than you plan to be active it. Don't forget that.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

@Fantasy_Mansion Rachaad White, like Mattison, is a JAG Almost all RBs are JAGs tho, it's a function of the parity at the position.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Kayshon Boutte is the player I am most likely to get burned by this offszn. At least he comes at a discount. Really good players faded by NFL for attitude issues are usually well worth the risk, because they have true elite ceiling.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Massive buys at their price: Aiyuk Mark Andrews Do not touch: Mac Jones TJ Hockenson

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

3 months

@Justin_14P Those aren't Dynasty leagues.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

2TE is the new Superflex. Like the Superflex and PPR innovations before it, adopting 2TE makes fantasy more competitive and fun by balancing positional value. Your 12 team league starting 24 TE each week has a similar market effect on TE as SF does for QB. ⬇️

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Wow Jahmyr Gibbs. Faster than I expected. If the 4.36 holds after video adjust he has a 110 speed score at 199. Concern alieviated. I stand corrected.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

7 months

If you are part of a Dynasty podcast focusing on trading, you should respond to trades offered to you in your leagues.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

@McNamaraDynasty One of them is like 9 years younger than the other.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

8 months

This post is a masterpiece in terms of the thinking it reveals in replies. There are a lot of lessons in here. If he's not a top 12 now, what will we say after the season when processing/reflecting/offszn ranking and he has a 22yo rookie season with 90+ catches for 1100+ yards?

@CharlesChillFFB

Scott Connor

@CharlesChillFFB

8 months

Is Puka Nacua still a top 12 dynasty WR?

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

In 10 years of playing dynasty and trading more than most, I don't remember a single "short term" trade that I didn't later regret.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

7 months

I quit, but if there's another startup lmk? People have zero self awareness. "But I had a good reason to quit" No, you most likely didnt. If you see people who pulled this crap in a previous startup, let commish know about it. Commish, tell them thanks but no thanks.

@PauliesSleepers

JUST PAULIE

@PauliesSleepers

7 months

Bro. It’s called redraft. Try it.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

8 months

I can't wait for Dynasty season to start. Only one more month before the best part of the cycle starts all over again.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

George Pickens is a "confirmation bias trap." If your priors are that he's good, then there is plenty there to make that argument. If your priors are that he isn't good, there's plenty of evidence there as well. Humilty is good.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

5 months

"Why is the community overating the rookie class?" We always do, it's just rookie fever. You're probably just forgetting how excited we once were in March for Jerry Jeudy Jalen Reagor, Laviska Shenault, JJAW and other busts once we forget details and hindsight has been applied.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

4 months

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@AdamSchefter

Adam Schefter

4 months

Texas WR Xavier Worthy, who ran the fastest 40 in the history of the combine, is visiting today with the Chicago Bears.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

I'm watching a league chat where people are announcing to the league that they don't like the offers they got, and are warning people not to send them bad offers. 😂😂😂 Don't do this - this is a total rookie move. You WANT stupid managers who don't know value to send offers.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

8 months

I won't be surprised at all if Marvin Harrison Jr. drops from consensus 1.02 to 1.04 or 1.05 by rookie draft time. Its not uncommon at all for us to convince ourselves that we need to take QBs over WRs in Dynasty rookie drafts. Chase, for example, went behind Fields and Lance.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

9 months

Demario Douglass has 29 targets over the last 4 weeks. 👀

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Israel Abanikanda will be 20 years old when his NFL career starts. And he's also checking these boxes: ✅Big ✅Fast ✅Productive in College Lets see some decent DC! I wish he caught a few more passes but he's a good looking prospect, especially for his current standing.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 month

Ja'Lynn Polk has everything aligned to earn a 20+% target share in year one. If he's good enough to earn it, of course.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

7 months

Some thoughts on this: 1) winning pots doesn't always equate to playing well. The best teams lose in the playoffs quite often. 2) playing the game and communicating about the game are different skills. 3) how do we know that these accountability posts are accurate and true?

@McNamaraDynasty

Analytics of Dynasty

@McNamaraDynasty

7 months

This is the time of year when you should find out how your fantasy analyst did in their leagues. What was their buy in? What was their ROI? (Profit/investment) How many leagues are they in? How many leagues have they orphaned? If there’s no transparency ask yourself why.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Treylon Burks' 3 month value graph from KTC is a good example of how poorly the community values assets in the offseason. He won huge both in FA and on draft night, but he didn't go up... This outcome was already priced in? I don't get it.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Early drafts are going just as expected, with 1.06 getting stuck with Gibbs every time.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Stop drafting late day 3/UDFA RBs before non special teams day 2 WRs. Michael Wilson at least should not being going after Deuce Vaughn/Eric Gray/Evan Hull.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 month

Arthur Smith is not a bad OC in real football, but he hasn't been friendly to fantasy players scoring expectations. There is another OC out there who I think is both bad and also unfriendly to fantasy... Joe Brady

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

9 months

Reflecting on this - it was the sharp owners buying Nacua early and coming away with the spoils. Buying while "Fulgham" was still in the mouths of those who sold too low.

@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

10 months

Interesting anecdote on Nacua Sent out a few waves of offers to the earliest 2024 1sts. The only one that's been accepted so far, is the one I sent to by far the sharpest owner I almost didn't send it, but I know he's aggressively sharp and the league has weird draft ordering

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

PSA Turning off league/chat notifications is basically just quitting the league. If the draft starts and you don't see it because you are ignoring chat and league draft notifications, you're abandoning your league. It's your responsibility to be contactable.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Normalize paying ahead 2 or even 3 years ahead in every startup. No refunds except in good standing departures. If you can't pay ahead 2 to 3 years, you're not committed enough to join the startup. It's embarrassing how shitty people can be.

@TheHQNerd

Joe O’Leary

1 year

People adding AND creating dynasty leagues just for the startups is a major problem in the dynasty community I keep seeing and hearing about endless amounts of dead leagues orphaned teams and commissioner MIA dynasty leagues

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Travis Etienne ran the 100m over a full second faster than Gibbs. And he's quite a bit bigger.

@JonHelmkamp

Jon Helmkamp

2 years

Jahmyr Gibbs is what people wanted Travis Etienne to be.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Fantasy Twitter is a great place. I avoided it for years, thinking it would be like a topical forum that grew too large. I was totally wrong. I'm enjoying the friendly disagreements ending in lasting and valuable conversations, and all the excellent discourse.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

9 months

The best time to get out, and maybe even sell low, on a rookie is when you first start seeing: "It's too early to call (player) a bust" If you see that, it's probably not too early to act as if the player is going to be a bust Once you can safely declare bust, everyone has.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

5 months

If I were making odds on whether a player would be traded... The team putting out a report that they have "no plans to trade" the player would increase my assumed probability of a trade happening.

@Underdog__NFL

Underdog NFL

5 months

Russini: Vikings have no plans to trade Justin Jefferson.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

One thing to keep in mind right now is we are in full rookie optimism mode right now. Also known as Kyren Williams/Kenny Gainwell/Eno Benjamin is a day 2 pick mode.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 month

Dynasty buys (at current market price) Priority buys: Dumb 25/26 firsts (as always) Pat F McMillan Luke McCaffrey Polk Buys: Mahomes Justin Herbert Waddle Diontae Godwin Charbonet Spears Andrews Cheap: Palmer Shakir Curtis Samuel Demario ATP Fant Jonnu Conklin Gesicki Lance

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Clustering illusion: Ascribing patterns in random events. Example: (xkcd 902)

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

If you skirt the edges of over playing your hand on every trade offer and negotiation, there will come a point when you can't get deals done and your leaguemates write you off as not worth the hassle.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

One thing I find amusing is getting an nastygram in trade response comments to a relatively fair trade offer - definitely not the kind that should generate that kind of response. Then you look and see the that person responding has done zero meaningful trades... ever.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

The current NFL draft vibes seem to indicate that the NFL prefers Zach Charbonnet over Evans and even more so Tucker. It's going to be a very interesting draft cycle. April drafts will be absolute 🔥

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

2022 WRs cruising towards "faceplant" status: Christian Watson Skyy Moore Alex Pierce Jalen Tolbert David Bell Thornton Gray Injury pass: Dotson JaMo Burks 😬

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

There's people out there giving advice that the 3rd round of this class is bad.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

3 months

Ricky Pearsall is the first 23 year old WR prospect I have ever liked going into the draft.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 month

Some of the biggest Dynasty sells this offseason. Priority Sells: Kyren Williams Jayden Reed Jordan Addison Rashee Rice (if no off field discount) Tyreek Hill Sells: CJ Stroud Sam LaPorta Zay Flowers JSN DJ Moore Dalton Kincaid TJ Hockenson DJ Metcalf Michael Pittman

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

I sanity checked an outgoing trade offers on some calculators... DAndre Swift is apparently worth more than a 1st in some markets. He's a massive, massive sell if you can get a first for him.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

@jlarkytweets The foundational non-linear weighted algorithm looks like this: Are they Old? Yes -> Sell. No -> Buy. 😛

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

As of right now, the 2025 NFL rookie class looks like the worst class in years. I doubt we see any "next class is better" mentions until the next cycle, and then it will be true. 2025 is the first class after extra elegibility, so perhaps it will have the most emergent players.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Anchoring effect: Sticking to priors when new information comes available. Example: "I'm not trading Jalen Reagor for a 2nd, it cost me a 1st to get him"

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Roschon Johnson goes before Tank Bigsby in every draft.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

@arklep1989 @JTRB1 DJM has 3 seasons better than Terry's best season. And he's almost 2 years younger.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

I've recently found these podcasts and am enjoying them quite a bit. What else is new(ish) that I haven't found yet? 33rd Team (bunch of serious sharps here) Dynasty War Zone Reception Perception Podcast Dynasty Think Tank

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Early declare ❌ Age 22 ❌ Early production ➖ 4th round DC ❌ Weight 223 ✅ Speed Score 99.5 ❌ Vibes ✅

@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

@thecarpetelf @Justin_14P Roschon is not a good prospect.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

If Treylon Burks benefits overall from Hopkins taking away coverage... Then Treylon Burks probably isn't very good. It's hard to have it both ways. If Burks is good, he would have earned a giant target share without Hopkins and this would not benefit him.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Recency Bias: Weighting recent events more heavily than less recent events. Example: "I'm going to pay 3x what I would have paid prior to the szn for Mike Williams now that he's had a good first few games"

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

The number 1 reason for being bad at trading is you don't send offers, or you don't send counters. So many people get OTC, put the pick on the block, and just site there. That works sometimes, but it works way better if you take the initiative.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

6 months

"Trevor Lawrence has weapons" Not... according to PFF (or me).

@Ihartitz

Ian Hartitz

6 months

Best/worst supporting casts this season in terms of average team PFF rush, receiving, pass blocking and run blocking grades (everything except passing): 1. 49ers 2. Lions 3. Ravens 4. Dolphins 5. Eagles ... 28. Panthers 29. Chargers 30. Jaguars 31. Jets 32. Giants

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

"High stakes" is just a function of your personal finances. If you're playing differently in high stakes leagues than otherwise, it probably means you have overextended on the buy in for those leagues, or you're playing on tilt. Stakes shouldn't enter into your decisions at all

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

@Quintorris_ Unpopular take: Javonte wasnt all that before the injury. Hes a must sell for me and this coach speak gives bagholders a sell window.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

10 months

Usually, the best Dynasty course of action is to decide more quickly than your opponents. Be nimble Decide the rookie is a bust and then decide otherwise later if you were wrong If it might be best to tank the szn, be the first to decide to tank and start acquiring picks.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

4 months

Dynasty and redraft are a lot closer than we like to think. The Dynasty market is reactionary and chases points. Elite WR assets have been known to lose considerable value when aging into the 25ish age range combined with a solid but not excellent season.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 months

Dirt cheap or free waiver players you can stash at the end of your Dynasty benches: Lucas Krull Dante Miller Trey Sermon Jalen Brooks Demarcus Robinson Davis Allen Jordan Whittington Mike Gesicki Dameon Pierce Tank Bigsby Jeremy Ruckert Darius Slayton

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Confirmation bias: Weighing information that disagrees with your priors more heavily than information that does not. Example: "I didn't like Jamarr Chase as a prospect so I'm going to ignore his analytic profile and where the Bengals drafted him and focus on his drops in camp"

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

If you're looking for a WIDE open niche in the football analysis industry I haven't found anyone even close to putting out realistic draft projections for the N+1/N+2 draft classes. A bazillion good takes on 2023 prospects, but almost zero quality early takes on 2025 and 2024.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

@Noah_FF_Green Mahomes. Easily

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

I owe Brian an apology.

@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

I'll play. Alexander Mattison is Brian Robinson with better marketing.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

@Quintorris_ It's not that far off IMO. The 3rd to the 6th is pretty flat in my opinion. Both players probably at a similar point in their career arc in terms of nearing the end of Dynasty eliteness.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

@bbout40 @JonHelmkamp Stop doing that. Or do it and trade with me, a lot.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Endowment effect: Valuing your own possessions at a higher value than they are worth to everyone else. Example: "Thanks for the offers, but I think the players I have rostered have a higher trade value than adp or Co consensus value suggests."

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Hindsight Bias: Believing past events to be more predictable than they were. Example: "I knew all along Cooper Kupp over Robert Woods wouldn't even be close in 2021 "

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

8 months

Was just thinking this last night. One of the things that distinguishes the top players from good players is the top players never say this: "I don't want to trade that player right now, I'm competing!" ...when that player is at peak value or at the edge of a value cliff.

@4WhomJBellTolls

Jeff Bell

@4WhomJBellTolls

8 months

I see many dynasty rebuilding guides that basically say “Trade your old players for young good players and draft picks” and I think you should do that whether or not you are rebuilding.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Outcome bias: Evaluating the quality of a decision based only on the outcome or weighing the outcome above other information that went in to the decison. Example: "Starting Tonyan over Kelce was the right decision. Tonyan scored 4 TDs"

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

10 months

Lowballing Kyle Pitts managers who once told you Pitts was worth more than Mahomes (2 TE) is an enjoyable sport.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

3 months

Don't compare JJ McCarthy to Will Levis when it comes to draft hype. Levis was not an early declare. McCarthy entered the draft after his Junior season and was invited to attend the NFL draft in a year where they are trying to make sure there are no 2nd round fallers attending.

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Boutte has some Diggs vibes. Maybe it's just me.

11

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Trevor Lawrence is a perfect example of missing bc you looked at advanced analytic metrics and ignored the underlying context. Analytics are powerful tools, but like most powerful tools you will probably hurt yourself if you aren't careful or don't actually use it correctly.

7

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37

@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

7 months

@CDCarter13 Can't be getting all emotional every time you lose an elaborate coin flip.

Tweet media one

2

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37

@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

11 months

Perspective: Not trading all of your future draft picks is a form of tanking. You're not using all of your available assets to win. Keeping picks shows a preference for future years at the expense of this year. Aka tanking, just a milder form. A difference of degree, not kind

16

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@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

1 year

Always be learning. No matter how much you know, there is always something else you can add to your repertoire. One of the best thing about Dynasty is that it's an Onion. There are layers upon layers of things to find small advantages in.

4

0

35

@DynastyOnion

Dynasty Onion

2 years

Negativity bias: Weighting negative events more severely than positive events of equal magnitude. Example: "I'm never drafting Aaron Rodgers again because he had his worst season that one time I did"

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