DumbLuckCapital @DumbLuckCapital Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@DavidPickard

@bokeplokalmalam

@gsstibv76300

@ConexaoDestra

@SZackery8292

@AlfonzoMex

@PS8p1qt2Z26Tl

@bokeplokalmalam

@AnTo70707712

@GuilletNel

@AbisayVene77618

@enhavendatroca

@kryptoamigo1

@BlavkBeph

@AamandYen52310

@LordStoppington

@_Denzelll

@WactShaun

@Reena1419

@berryisbitter

@PratikKumarMoh2

@Sarthakshr56661

@bevavera

@AQ8VCfHazm29829

@nastarlight_

@compratupaquete

@cukienaknikmati

@trhk_hm2328

@funi_funii

@FearsethxsJmAE

@b_kecil7

@shefnstuff

@ritesh64__

@noasauruss

@SmirfferRq8RB

DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 months

Don’t mean it in a bad way and can’t even explain it well, but Third Point is just the ultimate bro fund. Bros investing in bros. For bros, by bros. Conversely, nobody I wanna stuff in a locker more than that Greenlight 13F. Elliott goes to a boarding school you haven’t heard of.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Omfg untouchable GOAT

Bill Gates

@BillGates

6 years

Happy anniversary, @melindagates . I can’t wait to spend 25 more years laughing together.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

You know who does this? Casinos.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

This is the kind of shit we need to leave behind in 2020.

Chamath Palihapitiya

@chamath

4 years

In 2020, I invested $370M of my money in a handful of new positions. As of 12/31 these new investments were worth $2.03B for an IRR of 393% and a MOIC of 5.2X Follow along, in 2021, if you want to play...

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

Unpopular (?) opinion: NFTs will be the top in the “what were we thinking” hindsight conversations comparing 2020+ to 1999+

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

Fucked up that people still think growth and value are opposites

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

I can deadlift more than @nntaleb but sure as hell can’t spit fire like @CliffordAsness

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

What if that Alligator never took Chubs’s hand?

Jemele Hill

@jemelehill

6 years

What’s the greatest what-if in sports movie history? For me: What if Apollo Creed had lived?

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Warren Buffett hasn’t been a value investor for 20 years. He’s been doing Special Sits for 15 while his “lieutenants” do GARP/Tiger-type longs on permanent capital they didn’t earn. Except Tracy. She earned that shit. Whatever it is she does.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Best covers of all time. Because you peasants know nothing about anything. 1. Hurt - Johnny Cash 2. All Along the Watchtower - Jimi 3. Hallelujah - Jeff Buckley 4. Comfortably Numb - Van Morrison 5. Bitches Ain’t Shit - Ben Folds

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

So the whole $TSLA quarter was literally a lie

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Hopefully soon, as journalism makes NDAs irrelevant, I’ll tell some Bill Gates stories that will make Jeff Bezos sound like an angel

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Leave Einhorn alone. Poor guy just wanted to enjoy the environment he was in. And he did. And now he’s trying, but failing cuz things changed. Don’t laugh, just let him suck for a while. He’ll be fine and still rich as fuck and single and looking 22 years old. Will you?

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Elon randomly bringing up bankruptcy in explaining why he must work 120 hours is the kind of Freudian slip I get confused that people miss.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

If Tom Hanks dies I think the market goes down 20%

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

8 years

...that DLC has decided to move on and launch his own fund. The name won't be terribly offensive, I promise, but tweet activity may slow...

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

One of these things is not like the others...

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

To the litany of funds with $FB at the top of book but still charging more than me - you are richer than me still.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

It’s still pretty fucked up, regardless of what Holmes gets sentenced to, that she was only guilty on 4 of 12 counts while Sunny was promptly nailed on all 12 and will get multiples more time in jail than she does… because white girls couldn’t be capable of running such a ruse.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Will people freak when we actually get the case numbers that are currently reality of how many people had it? Because by then we’ll probably be on the mend and then it’ll be time to think about stepping back into the market. Cases are the lagging indicator here, they mean nothing

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

@Seawolfcap I’m terrified that weakness of consumer has been lagging by 1-2 quarters all along, so right as we go bullish across the board and really push up the universe up, the floor gonna drop out from underneath a lotta peeps and it’ll nail credit, autos, T&E, staples, more all at once.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

I see these guys who are fully defined by their job and would never slow down “chasing the dream” for their family - FU money or not. I love what I do w/ 1000% of my heart, yet I’m old enough to know that being happy isn’t making $20B as HFMJesus, and if I even could, I wouldn’t.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Things I’m marginally afraid of staying short but fundamentally have no concerns being short right now: $DKNG mainly but entire space too $PTON and entire space if public $SE (hate me all you want) $PYPL (see above) $AMZN (see above) $HIMS et al - no such thing as too low $BYND

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Great year boys let’s collect and go to Peru and not appreciate any of it and do the same thing next year with no consideration for how lucky we are to be here in the first place and how little we deserve our jobs relative to the guy we beat out to get them. Back pats all around.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Ho. Ly. Fuck... and not shutting down. Everyone think about what a -33% year would do to them and their careers for a second.

zerohedge

@zerohedge

6 years

Einhorn ends 2018 down 33.9%

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Treat yo-self this Christmas

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

8 years

Tomorrow is my last day on FinTwit. I'll be a lurker, no doubt. This place is amazing for so many different reasons, the least of which...

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

11 months

All it takes is one teeny tiny little 25% year on a casual $20M. Hardly even worth the effort.

Kyle Cerminara

@kcerminara

11 months

Run a $10 million fund (a very small fund) with standard 20% performance fee you only need two 25% years for GP to have $1 million of performance fees in fund. If you run a $20 million fund, you need one decent year to have $1 million in the fund. This isn’t that hard.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

After 14 years in the business I am proud to announce that I have received approval from Compliance with NO edits for an investor communication of little length and consequence. I’d like to take a moment to thank God, coach Belichick, and Satya Nadella for making this possible.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

9 years

Last year was long FANG, this year is short CUNT: Chipotle, UnderArmor, Netflix, Tesla

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

1 year

@ShortSightedCap Hollywood translated the whole thing as “Wall Street greed gets out of hand and the little guy wins for once” when the reality was “Main Street greed gets out of hand and the little guy loses as usual.” But it’s always a positive to them when the hedge funds (CalPERS) lose money

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

All you need to know about your money manager in six words at the end there.

Ross Gerber

@GerberKawasaki

6 years

It's almost a billion dollar lottery. Mega Millions going into record territory. Not a bad option for $2.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

The amount of amazing shit to short in 1-2 years coming out of these SPACs is going to be just delicious. Until then, ride the wave we must, right?

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

Always find it cute when people try to value $DIS - you can’t put a dollar amount on having an impervious Kung-Fu grip on the balls of Western culture.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

I was gonna go to bankwuptcy court, but then I got high. I was gonna pay my child support, til I got hiiigh. They took my options package and I know why...

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

What’s in DLC’s wallet these days? Order not indicative. Long: $VSTO $MIC $AMS.MC $DAR $DUFN $MTZ $BR ... Short: $EXPE $MAT $MCD $SBAC $GIS

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

9 years

When the headhunter calls about a "distressed equity analyst" ...do they mean a deep value guy or just a really emotionally run-down analyst

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Shit he’s gonna buy Tesla

Bloomberg

@business

6 years

President Erdogan appoints himself chairman of Turkey's sovereign wealth fund and gets rid of the entire management staff

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

@SuperMugatu Competitive advantages should typically revolve around 1) impossible to replicate access to capital 2) regulatory hurdles with p < .01% chance of changing 3) post-facto monopoly denunciation (a la $SCI) 4) customers with limited or no alternatives. Porter is a homo.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

1 year

How come nobody does anything cool anymore like corner the silver market or repossess aircraft carriers from hostile governments

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

4 years

This stock is my favorite and here’s why: it helps you realize that it might actually be very common for people to be right about what they’re betting on (won’t hit its goals, is lying about numbers, FSD isn’t real), while horribly wrong about what the stock will do when they are

Keyser Soze

@KeyserSozeCFA

4 years

Even if TSLA goes down 90%...I think the bears would have to admit they got this one wrong....IF they were being intellectually honest. No position. But I do try to call 'em like I see 'em.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

8 years

@DumbLuckCapital ...and last but not least, do your own homework. I know guys who source off our tweets. That's fucked up. Be a real analyst

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Greatest fund of all time regardless of Valeant

Michael Batnick

@michaelbatnick

7 years

The life of a Sequoia Fund analyst.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Back in NYC, almost forgot how awful the subways smell. Think it smells like someone spilled a Chipotle bowl and a box of cinnamon sugar doughnuts on top of a pile of dead rodents and let it stew in a bucket of hot piss for several days. Always warms the heart.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

The more time I spend on FinTwit the more I feel like this guy

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

You must not have met a sell side analyst

Ben Hunt

@EpsilonTheory

6 years

Sorry, but no. You're not competing against "the masses". You are competing against the smartest humans in the world and the non-human intelligences they have created. There is zero market edge from being another smart guy. Zero. This is the Big Lie of Jim Cramer and his ilk.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Honestly, rounding up all of the private sector for this was pretty smart. Market loving this. Pretty convinced by now thought that DJT views the success of his presidency solely on what the stock market is doing.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

I’d consider this a huge win for $TSLA

IPO Boutique

@IPOBoutique

5 years

Tesla Secondary Offering to price at $767.00 vs last trade of $804.00 $TSLA

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

This is a company that does things and grows at rates that are forecastable with tangible products and high-confidence ROIs to its customers, but has little in terms of sexiness other than making people rich.

Briefing.com

@Briefingcom

6 years

$ORLY: O'Reilly Auto beats by $0.23, reports revs in-line; comps +4.6%; guides Q3 EPS in-line; guides FY18 EPS above...

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Calling everything a tax is just a useless exercise. Like ya I guess everything is a tax sure food is a tax on living but whats that do for me. Once you start stretching the definition you stop realizing the service is important.... google is a tax on questions lmao darn them

Pythia Capital, No Brainer

@PythiaR

5 years

Taxes 1: $MSFT - tax on computing $V/ $MA - tax on consumption $VRSN - tax on the internet $ICE, $CME $CBOE $MXTX - tax on the concept of a market $MASI - tax on sickness $ADBE - tax on digital creativity $MSCI / $SPGI - tax on passive investing $MCO $SPGI - tax on corp. debt

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

So - is there one guy/gal (within investing) that comes to mind when you think of people that “got in, got out” in terms of getting the bag & then fucking off into the sunset to go live their lives? Can think of a few big ones but I bet the best ones are way way below the radar.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Did we all work for the same guy?

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Cool-ish Elliott article, but a few thoughts from an actual activist: 1) They can’t sustain Jesse’s strategy outside of TMT 2) 90% of what they do isn’t that bad 3) Investigators aren’t that bad 4) Only $AA was truly a debacle 5) These types of articles are always half-baked

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

I give a negative number of fucks about Princess Diana #confessyourunpopularopinion

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Been spending a lot of time thinking about cognitive biases and how to “systematize” the roadblocks that keep us from being intellectually honest and looking to get better absolutely, not simply get better relative to each other. Came away with a few new items to our IC process:

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Prob the most fucked up thing you’ll see today.

JaValle

@JaValle

5 years

Rapper, Blueface traveled to Skid Row in Downtown, Los Angeles today to give back to those in need during this holiday season.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Kind of #woke text from dad: “I finally beat Jeff Bezos. 40 years of happy marriage. Bitch couldn’t handle half. 100 billion can’t buy you that. Tell your wife you love her!”

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

This guy is so fucked up, using his blue check and follower base to @ every brand in existence hoping for handouts... not to mention taking it out on a hard working woman. Does this guy not know what a display is? Please burn this man.

David Leavitt 🎲🎮🧙‍♂️🌈

@David_Leavitt

5 years

This @target manager Tori is not honoring the price of their items per massachusetts law

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Things like the $UA settlement make me think at this point as an Audit Committee member, not encouraging the commitment of a minimum level of fraud is a violation of one’s fiduciary duty. 7 years later you’ll have faked it, made it for billions, and only give back a few bucks!

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

This question literally has right answers. The holy trinity of retail, for example: IKEA, Trader Joe’s, Enterprise Rent-A-Car. Industrial titans: Cargill, Bechtel. B2B Kings: Bloomberg, Cox, Deloitte. Unsure how I feel about Fidelity.

Adam Wilk

@AKWilk

6 years

What are some private businesses you’d like to get a piece of? For me in no particular order: - Orange Theory Fitness - Wawa (the GOAT convenience store in my area) - The Master’s Baker (local baker w/ near monopoly on high margin wedding cakes) And definitely Chick-Fil-A.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Fun fact: this rule applies to none of us. But is an excellent cop out to bail if you ain’t feelin FinTwit anymore.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

I run a hedged fund but still strongly agree with this

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Adam Jonas: “Going into your last year, Sergio, what do you want to be remember for?” SergiGOAT M: “Being able to answer your questions, Adam.” $FCAU

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

@buccocapital This is an excellent post though, whether this guy is right or not

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

And here it is...

DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

When a friend hits you with that “Steve Wynn for sexual assault 2018” call and you were blind to it

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Matthew Korn better bring his fuckin commodities guy

CNBC

@CNBC

6 years

CEO berates analysts on conference call: 'You are a disaster...they will have to commit suicide'

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

1 year

Always feels weird that Morningstar has conditioned the world to think growth and value are opposites. Growth and value are in different spectrums. Momentum is value’s opposite, more or less.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

Is that how it works? Or… whose bankruptcy are we talking about?

Open Outcrier

@OpenOutcrier

2 years

$COIN Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood keeps buying Coinbase (COIN) to take bankruptcy off the table. - Jim Cramer

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

8 years

@blinddartcap @crossdefault @ForgetAlpha Anyone on the buy side with a full balance sheet in their model that's not doing something credit oriented is missing more than the forest

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

So pumped for every "Amazon is going to take over _______ industry" to be recycled as a "Wal-Mart can easily take over ______ industry."

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

8 years

Just got THE BEST wrong number of my life. Guy asked if I knew where the safety glasses to launch the catapult were. Told him check the shed

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

8 years

Move

Helene Meisler

@hmeisler

8 years

Question 30 yr old single living in NYC has 10k to invest. What would you do? Thoughtful replies appreciated.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

I could ask the boys at the grind shops about their hours but even I gotta agree 10% of $35B is better than 900% of $50K in most situations... nice job admitting you don’t know anything though, sounds repeatable

Bitstein

@bitstein

7 years

You, a Wall St trader: spent years in school learning minutia of finance, 10 years of 100 hour work weeks, never see family, super excited about your 10% returns this year Me, a Bitcoiner: read some books, shitposted on Twitter, ate some steaks, enjoying 900% returns this year

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

The old “delay the fuck out of earnings so nobody has time to ask real questions on the call” strategy. Respectable.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

To do list for Twitter threads: 1) Long rant on Fidelity, 2) long rant on VC being the dumbest of the buy side, with stories, 3) why putting an ocean between you and your major LPs will save your life and your marriage

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

9 years

I swear to god Hillary is shorting companies and calling them out the next night. $JCI

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Who let this get published? Musk is actually deluding people into believing all their problems are in “the shorts”

CleanTechnica

@cleantechnica

6 years

A Field Guide To Potential Securities Violations By Tesla’s Foes — In Depth

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

If you were long a company that started begging/asking random customers to help them with core business functions for free, would that be a positive or a negative in your mind? $TSLA

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

3 years

Hot take: no squib kick was a huge mistake. Why let Mahomes throw at all? Hill beats the defense and it’s over. One play is better than 3-4…

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Currently your problems are bigger than mine.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

“How do I sell my $TSLA shares at the price it closed at? I didn’t want to hold it if Elon was going to jail, and nobody told us until today!” -TeslaGuy48234

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Lmaoooooooo ya guys this new phenomenon is gonna kill 2021E... first time in the aisle?

Spruce Point Capital

@sprucepointcap

5 years

Here's something the stock promoters behind $CHD won't show you. At Walmart $WMT, it's largest customer, they put the trojans #condoms and first response #pregnancy tests behind locked glass door > a big impediment towards purchases #bearish

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Everyone seems to be talking $TSLAQ now they Einhorn is in focus again so I’ll resurrect my favorite failed promise: remember the roller coaster in-factory that has an optional loop the loop route (of course!) to help employees get around “fast and fun” ?? I ‘member.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

The number of Subarus in a city/neighborhood is directly proportional to how many of their respectable adults do recreational drugs while their kids are at school

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Best thread, twitter history

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

Omg

Ross Gerber

@GerberKawasaki

7 years

Me laughing at the clueless short. He’s short Tesla and Netflix. $nflx $tsla

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

New Years Resolutions/Goals: not get doxxed, repeat 2017 performance, be a better Dad, appreciate my wife, leave the East Coast for good.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Fuck Tencent, fuck Chinese Internet

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

Literally nobody loses money selling weed, let alone more than smoking it themselves

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

5 years

Never seen a more painful 180 from great to decent to awful than Westworld so far. Sweet baby Jesus.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

2 years

If you’re going to have a family - like a real one where you’re giving it a shot in earnest, not passing them off to the nanny and using them as a status symbol - it’s scary to embrace but it has to become your #1 identity. You’re dad first, husband second, HFMJesusChrist third.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

@HalCapLLC @SuperMugatu And nobody ever properly estimates reinvestment cost of continually finding new ideas when your turnover is 100%+ looking for 3-month 15-20% moves because you will work on limited info and end up getting smacked a few times rather than using downside risk as your reinvestment opp

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

FY0 ROIC - the metric all “compounder people” have a boner for but don’t realize is totally backward looking. Real metric: ROIC in FY3

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

9 years

Also, try and keep in mind being short or long something and having it move in your direction doesn't make you right, it makes you money.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

“Oil = bad” is one of my favorite ignorant millennial takes

3

0

21

DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

7 years

@BluegrassCap Wikipedia

2

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24

DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

If my boy @elonmusk is actually taking over his mom’s Twitter account to battle “the shorts,” where will that even rank on the crazy-shit-timeline? Not even top 3?

2

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23

DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

1 year

@buccocapital 5/10 episode, but 8/10 ending. Not a fan how many twists and turns they let Shiv get away with and still try to call it character development, but ultimately we got none in the ending from anyone but the Disgusting Bros. As Logan said, the kids are not serious people.

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DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

9 years

That awkward moment when you do all your research and get it 100% right, then Oprah swoops in to fuck you in the ass and ruin your year $WTW

4

24

DumbLuckCapital

@DumbLuckCapital

6 years

How exactly is Larry completely independent of Elon? They drop acid together, that has to count for something!

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