The Summer League stats that translate the most to rookie year (all per 36):
1. 3PAs
2. Assists
3. Blocks
4. Offensive rebounds
5. FGA
Least:
1. FT%
2. 3P%
3. Steals
4. FTAs
5. FG%
Thinking about how there's a 19-year-old who put up 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game on 60% from two, 33% from three, 82% FTs playing against older pros, mostly by multiple year age gaps...and he's being mocked in the mid-20s
The Summer League stats that translate the most to rookie year (all per 36):
1. 3PAs
2. Assists
3. Blocks
4. Offensive rebounds
5. FGA
Least:
1. FT%
2. 3P%
3. Steals
4. FTAs
5. FG%
One item I'm watching for each Summer League team:
ATL - Djurisic attacking in transition
BOS - Scheierman screening
BKN - Dariq pull-up comfort
CHA - KJ Simpson off-ball usage
CHI - Buzelis three point willingness
CLE - Tyson ability to contain drives
DAL - Ajinca screen nav
Thinking about how there's a 19-year-old who put up 18 points, 8 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game on 60% from two, 33% from three, 82% FTs playing against older pros, mostly by multiple year age gaps...and he's being mocked in the mid-20s
Jordan Walsh in G League debut:
18 pts (4-9 from three, 3-5 from two)
8 rebounds
5 assists
2 steals
2 blocks
Love to see the confidence letting it fly in particular
Something I absolutely underestimated with Walker Kessler and never will again: tracking the ball in the air + highly accurate hand placement for blocks *on the move* is such a good indicator for NBA translation, especially when you also have >7 foot wingspan
Scoot Henderson shot 42-101 on contested deep midrange pull-ups, earning him a 99th percentile grade from InStat data tracking. Feels like this point has gotten lost a bit over the cycle.
(Also, the line between midrange and rim attempts becomes blurred when you're Scoot)
Summer League players/items i’m most interested to watch:
ATL: Bufkin physicality
BOS: Justin Champagnie interior scoring
BKN: Clowney at the 5
CHA: NSJ getting comfortable with NBA range
CHI: Justin Lewis driving
CLE: Emoni role-fitting
DAL: Hardy PNR passing
DEN: KAMAGATE
Second straight year of Clingan holding opponents to *under 44%* shooting at the rim.
For comparison, in their draft years:
Chet Holmgren - 46%
Walker Kessler - 50%
Evan Mobley - 50%
Dereck Lively - 51%
Mark Williams - 52%
Nic Claxton - 58%
Opponent shooting with Clingan on the court (difference to when off)
Rim: 43.6% (-10%)
Midrange: 28.7% (-8.3%)
Three: 28.6% (-2.8%)
*stats exclude garbage time.
Just a staggering level of impact to take an already great defense to historically dominant.
The DraftPow Big Board, 2022, featuring:
• Full top-70 board with prospect capsules for top 30
• Over 8k words in new writing
• Player archetype badges
• Favorite player-team fits
Hope you enjoy!
VCU's Vince Williams Jr. shot an unreal 8-11 from three off stepbacks, change of direction and in & outs his junior and senior seasons, as part of his resume while shooting 40% on 272 attempts from deep.
Somehow, he is absent from most major mock drafts, a first rounder to me
Largest usage rate increases in 2021-22 as true shooting also improves, age 22 season or younger:
1. Ja Morant (+5% USG, +3% TS)
2. Devin Vassell (+4%, +2%)
3. Deni Avdija (+3%, +3%)
4. Deandre Ayton (+3%, +0.3%)
5. Cole Anthony (+2%, +2%)
6. Trae Young (+3%, +0.3%)
Rookies thrown into the deep end right away. Rank of *majority-starter lineup* minutes so far:
1. Ausar Thompson
2. Scoot Henderson
3. Chet Holmgren
4. Victor Wembanyama
5. Dereck Lively II
6. Jaime Jaquez Jr.
7. Keyonte George
8. Gradey Dick
Isaiah Collier had good rim attempt volume (154 attempts) and efficiency (62%) despite finishing almost exclusively below the rim and through traffic. Self-created 3/4ths of his rim makes and had some flashes of excellent touch on tape
GG Jackson averages after ten games with G League’s Memphis Hustle:
22 points
7 rebounds (2 offensive)
2 assists
3 turnovers
51% on 5 2PA/game
36% on 8 3PA/game
86% on 4 FTA/game
0.9 steals
1.5 blocks
Turns 19 in two weeks
Carlton "Bub" Carrington's 32% from three understates his degree of shotmaking. Bub was sixth in the NCAA in pull-up attempts at 250 and still maintained 83rd percentile efficiency at over 1.0ppp. All while being the youngest player in the ACC.
DaRon Holmes in PNR, two plays in quick succession:
- Sets real screens
- Resets footwork quickly
- Powerful leaper to the hoop
- 40% from three on pops
- Improved driving to draw help
- Consistently finds the open man
Thinking about how Jalen Suggs will make several all-defensive teams, and become one of the best defense-to-offense players in the league, and will also play next to Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero
Jamal Shead clips.
- Elite reaction time, ground coverage, hand placement and instant leaping make stocks likely to translate
- Creative manipulating defense on drives using burst
- May be best passer in class. Perfect velocity and accuracy
- Lacks high efficiency scoring option
Nikola Topic averaged 7 rim attempts per game this season with Mega. I hand-tracked each one and found:
- Closeness to the basket has minimal impact
- Very good at sustaining slight advantages
- Lacks leaping force to break through tight contests
- Creates almost all unassisted
Cam Whitmore points in transition, per InStat:
EYBL (2021) - 6.8
FIBA (2022) - 6.7
Villanova (2023) - 1.7
Going back through the tape, tons of opportunities for Villanova to push but not their style (6th %ile in NCAA) Can effectively adjust Cam's ppg by ~+3 to compensate
Nikola Djurisic is a clear first rounder on my board. Capable of rim pressure, creative passing deliveries, technical footwork on drives and some shot creation (though with mediocre efficiency).
If I have one regret already it’s not ranking Kel’el Ware higher. Ended up lotto after some skepticism early but now think he has some real star upside.
Gradey Dick defensive clips:
• Locks in to scheme & communicates
• Quick reactions but can get back cut (meh first step)
• Very good hand-eye coordination but can get shot over (6'9'' WS)
• Will chase down loose balls, wants to make plays
• Sticks with plays, good rebounder
It can be difficult to tell the real from the fake in the Vegas heat, but we are here to help. Our newest Swish Theory roundtable looks at takeaways from Summer League 2023. Who impressed or surprised, and what might carry over to the regular season?
Newest words from me at
@TheStepien
, the third piece in a series of four looking at prospects through the lens of different archetypes.
In this I exhaust the term "connector" in all its interpretations and rank my favorite prospects that fit the molds:
Pacome Dadiet has strong touch inside the arc, as evidenced by his tape in addition to the stats. Shot 68% on layups and 60% on pull-up twos (though limited attempts for both). Recovered from an ankle injury suffered in 2023 and also adapted to a growth spurt over the season.
GG Jackson played often next to 7'0'' Josh Gray who made 100% of his FGA in the restricted area.
When playing w/o Gray, Jackson's interior scoring skyrocketed:
Rim rate: 21% -> 30%
Rim FG%: 54% -> 62%
Mid FG%: 24% -> 33%
Oreb%: 3% -> 6%
SC offense +10.4, defense +2.6 (net +8)
Collin Murray-Boyles is a convincing top 5 option for me as we enter the 2025 NBA draft cycle.
• 2nd to Reed Sheppard in freshman Box Plus-Minus while being a full year younger
• South Carolina was 9 points better per 100 possession when CMB was on the court
• Wins with
This was a fun prompt last year so let’s run it back - who’s your “false ceiling” guy this year?
Last year’s most mentioned pick was Franz Wagner, worked out well already
who’s everyone’s “false ceiling” pick for this draft? A guy talked about as a high-floor role player but you think has an underratedly high ceiling. Mine’s probably Ayo Dosunmu
Newest words from me
@TheStepien
. A "forest through the trees" look at what I have valued most, shortcomings of the archetype approach and how I can get better for the next cycle.
Features my case for steal of the 2022 draft: Jaden Hardy of the Mavs.
Bilal Coulibaly has a lot of tools at his disposal to be a highly impactful rim finisher:
- Torrid acceleration with strong frame
- The 7'2'' wingspan
- Understands how to use body to protect finish
- Extremely quick leaper
Amen is the best passing talent in the class, but I think Jarace Walker is the best current distributor. Always makes ultra-quick decisions and has access to subtle passing angles
Using this as a benchmark, my largest differences:
I'm higher on:
1. Zach Edey
2. Jonathan Mogbo
3. Tyler Smith
4. Ron Holland
5. Zay Crawford
6. DaRon Holmes
I'm lower on:
1. Zaccharie Risacher
2. Dalton Knecht
3. Tidjane Salaun
4. Alex Sarr
5. Cody Williams
6. Stephon Castle
Running it back for year
#4
��
Who’s your “false ceiling” pick, a player commonly called low ceiling that you disagree with?
Last year’s draft twitter picks: Cason Wallace, Gradey Dick, Podziemski
Cycle
#3
for this prompt - who’s your “false ceiling” pick this year? A player whose ceiling you think is the most underestimated.
Draft twitter picks last two seasons:
2021 - Franz, Moody
2022 - Johnny Davis, Keegan Murray
Could GG Jackson be the next second-round sensation?
@taylormetrics
dives into why the 19-year-old is turning heads with standout metrics that could make him a game-changer for the Memphis Grizzlies.
Don’t miss the analysis: 🏀📊
So fun to watch Alperen Sengun go to work in the post. Has some of the best spatial awareness in the league to find angles and perfect off-arm usage to access them. Always finds the shortest path from A to B
All Annoying-To-Play-Against Team (highest possible compliment), 2023:
PG: Jamal Shead
SG: Devin Carter
SF: Isaiah Crawford
PF: Anton Watson
C: Zach Edey
HM: Reed Sheppard, Rob Dillingham
Ja'Kobe Walter this season: 45% shooting on 58 catch and shoot threes (4.8 per game). My favorite form in the class aesthetically, and only behind Dillingham generally
Perhaps my highest conviction bet this class is Tari Eason translating as a steals machine. Not only did he have the top steals rate but Tari also made extremely difficult swipes look pedestrian. Only Tari with his length + agility could pull off the first clip here w/o fouling:
Excited to be releasing a Top 40 Big Board this year. Will feature prospect rankings, detailed player profiles, archetype badges and custom indicators. Stay tuned!
I spent the last couple weeks watching prospect tape for the greatest players since 1980. By my eye, Cooper Flagg's hand-eye coordination ranks among the best of them. 3.6 stocks to 1.6 fouls with Montverde, 5.5 stocks to 1.7 fouls with Maine United
If - and it's a big if - Ryan Dunn can develop enough offense to stay on the court, he has legitimate All-Defense upside. 1.3 steals and 2.3 blocks per game compared to only 2.1 fouls. When on the court (usually as primary rimpro), UVA went from 278th best rim defense to 57th.
Thoughts on young inefficient high usage players:
1. As efficiency is currently their enemy and they use up a lot of chances, the impact of their poor efficiency is amplified more than if they were in a small role
2. In a similar fashion, they would disproportionately benefit
Jonathan Mogbo is having an incredible season for San Francisco, averaging:
14.8 points
10.6 rebounds (3.9 offensive)
2.9 assists / 1.9 TOs
1.9 steals
1.1 blocks
68% FG / 73% FT
Leads the NCAA with 44 dunks (5 more than Zach Edey) in just 15 games.
First rounder on my board.
Jaylon Tyson offense clips.
- Creative footwork and timing attacking the basket but lacks pop on last step
- Not a consistent passer but still capable of high-value reads
- Flow into pull-up and stability on catch and shoot are both excellent
I feel confident in saying Stephon Castle has top-10 feel in this class. Picks his angles well, has quick reaction times and predicts the next action. Is able to make manipulative reads and find gaps with his cutting. Likely to continue improving in unexpected ways.
For my debut piece
@SwishTheory
, I covered the
#1
prospect in the 2023 draft, Victor Wembanyama.
On why he meets the hype as the best prospect since LeBron and how he uniquely blends both floor- and ceiling-raising traits for maximum team-building flexibility.
Link below:⤵️
Favorite new player combos, aesthetically:
- Paolo + Franz
- Ivey + Cade
- AJG + Trae
- Branham + Dejounte
- MarJon + Giannis
- Jovic + Bam
- Alondes + Cam Thomas
- Justin Lewis + Pat W
Reed Sheppard's foul drawing is a major swing skill to me. Not explosive enough to get clean rim looks, Sheppard will instead have to use his change of speed to get an angle, then grift.
FTs drawn rate on drives:
Sears 25%
Mintz 21%
Simpson 17%
Collier 11%
Dilly 10%
Sheppard 10%
Kris Murray at Iowa + DME Academy:
- 32% from three over 445 attempts
- 72% from the line over 289 attempts
Keegan at Iowa + DME:
- 39% from three over 383 attempts
- 78% from the line over 316 attempts
Ajay Mitchell offense.
- Finds hidden drive lanes
- Excellent at passing manipulation
- Very good touch on the move
- 3pt reluctancy clogs the paint, will be more of an issue w NBA length
- Elite at changing speeds but likely to struggle holding his own in midrange at NBA level
Opponent shooting with Clingan on the court (difference to when off)
Rim: 43.6% (-10%)
Midrange: 28.7% (-8.3%)
Three: 28.6% (-2.8%)
*stats exclude garbage time.
Just a staggering level of impact to take an already great defense to historically dominant.