We're still getting more details about today's strike against a Russian military airfield at Novofedorivka in occupied Crimea, but a few big implications are already clear.
Chief among them: The West has spent months investing in Ukraine—now we're starting to see the payoff.🧵
🚨The
@guardian
has learned a major anti-Ukraine conference will be held in Washington, DC tomorrow.
@Heritage
Foundation will bring together Hungarian President Viktor Orbán’s team & Republican congressmen to strategize how to end US support for Ukraine.
The idea from
@elonmusk
and others that Ukraine should trade “land for peace” is faulty for a variety of reasons, but especially because no one in Ukraine would accept consigning people to the horrors of Russian occupation.
I joined
@CNN
to discuss this yesterday.
Sources confirm that Trump is directly trying to tank Ukraine/border negotiations to deny Biden a political win and keep immigration as a campaign issue this year.
There's a few ways this might go. Few are good for Ukraine, and above all, precious time has been wasted. 🧵
NEWS -
@LeaderMcConnell
raises doubts about whether Senate Republicans should move ahead with border security-Ukraine aid deal.
He told GOP senators “The politics of this have changed,” and noted Trump wants to run on immigration.
“We are in a quandary,” McConnell said
No country has a greater need of Patriot systems than Ukraine. Transferring 8 (!) Patriot systems from Israel to Ukraine is morally and strategically the right move.
Western leaders thought if they allowed Russia to take a chunk of Ukraine’s land and people, it would stop. Russia came back for more.
Russia won’t stop until it is stopped. Ukrainians are asking for the tools to make that happen and finally heal in peace.
Today, Ukraine remembers the soldiers who defended Donetsk Airport in 2014. The war didn’t begin 2 yrs ago & we recall the sacrifices Ukrainians made fighting Russia when it tried to stop Ukraine from moving toward EU in 2013, began aggression in eastern Ukraine & annexed Crimea.
HIMARS enabled Ukraine to strike farther behind enemy lines on ammo depots and command posts.
It's enough of a success that Ukraine's armed forces made a hype-video to taunt the Russians "kept awake at night" by HIMARS.
A defining feature of this war is how quickly and smartly Ukraine's employed sophisticated weapons systems from a West that hasn't always been eager to provide them.
Each time UA got something, it used it effectively and showed that more and better weapons wouldn't go to waste.
Let's also recognize this strike's symbolism—much like the sinking of the Moskva, this was a highly visible attack on something the Russians thought was impossible to threaten.
Just look at these videos of nearby Russians lounging on the Crimean beach.
Lithuania isn’t blockading Russian territory. Lithuania is enforcing EU sanctions on Russian goods because of Russia’s war on Ukraine. Lithuania also has allies.
Right now Elon Musk, Vivek Ramaswamy, and JD Vance are mainlining conspiracy theories about Ukraine and the supplemental aid bill to and audience of tens of thousands.
@guardian
Ukraine aid was blocked in the Senate last week. That sent a dangerous signal to Putin and other strongmen like Orbán and Xi that our divisions can be exploited to harm Ukraine and weaken America.
Orbán is trying exactly that, tomorrow in Washington and this week with the EU.
Russia massed forces on the border with Ukraine before launching this new offensive on Kharkiv, but because of a White House policy, they couldn’t use U.S. weapons to do something about it.
This has to change. No safe haven for Russia’s invasion force. Let Ukraine defend itself.
3/ Russian forces are reaping the benefits of the West's long-term restriction on Ukraine using Western-provided weapons to strike legitimate military targets on Russian territory — territory that Russian forces now depend on to sustain their offensive ops in northern Kharkiv.
The latest example of this is HIMARS. The West was supremely reluctant to provide multiple launch rocket systems, but after pressure, finally provided them.
By all accounts, the system has been a game-changer.
Ukraine clarifies its position on Crimea:
"Ukraine plans to give Russia a choice on how to leave Crimea. If they don’t agree to leave voluntarily, Ukraine will continue to liberate its land by military means."
@T_Tasheva
@guardian
What’s
@Heritage
hiding behind closed doors with Orbán’s team and Republican members of Congress?
If they think the case for abandoning Ukraine is so strong, make the meeting public and livestream it. Show us who’s there and what they have to say.
The
@Telegraph
reports Russia is using chemical weapons on Ukrainian troops, with drones dropping gas grenades to force Ukrainians out of their trenches so they can be killed with conventional weapons.
Russia has spent years practically importing its own people (many of them military families) into occupied Crimea, turning the peninsula into one big military base and persecuting locals (especially minorities like Crimean Tatars).
If Ukraine keeps making smart, tactical strikes like this to sap Russia's ability to sustain the war+deliver big wins like the potential liberation of Kherson, it can reinvigorate Western leaders suffering "Ukraine fatigue" and give every reason to keep the weapons coming.
Today's strike also means the West is getting all the signals it needs from Kyiv that advanced weapons systems sent to Ukraine won't go to waste. Washington even clarified today that, yes, Crimea and the Kerch bridge are fair game.
US officials have clarified that targets in Crimea are fair game, including the Kerch Strait Bridge, as they see it as Russian occupied territory of Ukraine. No escalation ceiling for US weapons use for Crimean targets. As for what was used here, lots of fingers pointing…
19 top former officials are urging the US to give Ukraine the weapons it needs to win, before it's too late.
Putin made clear his ambitions go beyond Ukraine—it should be clear that a preferable outcome is making sure Ukraine stops Russia here and now.
Republicans have spent months blocking aid to Ukraine, forcing troops on the frontline to ration ammo as it runs low.
What Republicans have done is objectively giving Putin an advantage, and Ukrainians are paying in blood for it.
Pay attention to Kupiansk! Russia has reportedly amassed significant forces, incl. 500 tanks, more than 600 IFVs, hundreds of howitzers and 40.000 troops opposite the city of Kupiansk near Kharkiv. The 20.000 🇺🇦 defenders are outgunned and lack ammo.
Ukraine successfully retaking Kherson likely doesn't mean the liberation of Crimea is right around the corner.
But today's strike does mean Ukraine has a chance of knocking out Russia's key assets on Crimea, opening the path to liberating other territory in the south.
It's still unclear how exactly the strike was pulled off or what kind of weapon was used. But the field is deep behind the front line, making this perhaps the deepest Ukrainian strike into occupied territory to date.
Reportedly, Russia’s Air Force 43rd Regiment airfield close to the city of Saki in Crimea has been attacked.
It’s located over 200 kilometers deep in the Russian-controlled rear.
What could that be? 😳
Ukraine hasn't officially taken credit yet for the strike or explained it, and the eventual statement will be worth watching.
But the MoD did put out a coy statement reminding Russians not to smoke near their ammunition. After a win like this, Ukraine's earned a taunt or two.
@radiosvoboda
also published satellite images taken of the airfield just a few hours before the strike, showing dozens of Russian jets out in the open. Taking these out could have major implications, especially for Russia's ability to defend Kherson in coming weeks.
A diplomatic source close to the Hungarian embassy told the
@guardian
: “Orbán is confident that the Ukraine aid will not pass in Congress. That is why he is trying to block assistance from the EU as well.”
Big picture:
Strikes like today's mean we'll almost certainly see more major announcements of aid like yesterday's $1 billion from the US.
The West has invested money and weapons in Ukraine. Today's strike is a sign that these investments are paying real dividends.
@michaeldweiss
&
@JimmySecUK
make an important point here: regardless of the weapon, Ukraine has the capability to strike hundreds of kilometers behind enemy lines, a capability Washington has been unwilling to give Ukraine.
The other important point is what Ukrainians choose to do with this capability. If they stick to using it against Russian targets inside Ukraine, then the chances of their getting other Western missiles with the 200-300km range increases.
The UK is on board with sending frozen Russian state assets to Ukraine, potentially unlocking over $20 billion at a critical time.
This would be an important push for other states to do the same. The U.S. *could* do the same, but still has yet to.
This was the big one. Ukraine aid is on track to pass the House and
@SenSchumer
says the Senate should be ready to stay in town to immediately take it up.
A welcome move from Sweden to
#LetUkraineStrikeBack
. More governments should announce this—both because it’s right and because it adds momentum to the effort to get the
@WhiteHouse
to change course.
Congress passed aid for Ukraine, now
@POTUS
has to let Ukraine actually use it.
Sweden has authorized Ukraine to use Swedish-delivered weapon systems against targets in Russia.
"Ukraine may use Swedish weapons against targets in Russia. It is a welcome announcement from the Minister of Defense."
Sweden delivered a range of weapon systems to Ukraine, among
Here's where I'll plug my recent
@ForeignPolicy
piece on why all these systems have put Ukraine into a position where it just might liberate its only major occupied city, and why that matters for continued Western support.
Ukraine is walking away from the
#VilniusNATOSummit
without a clear path to NATO, and
@POTUS
is the main reason why. This was a missed chance to turn around months of missteps.
Latest from
@melindaharing
and myself in
@thehill
.
There's some speculation over whether this may have been done with a cruise missile, like the Ukrainian-made Neptune missile (famously used to sink the Moskva flagship) or if Ukraine may have finally been supplied with the ATACMS missiles Jake Sullivan previously ruled out.
.
@SpeakerJohnson
could bring supplemental aid to a vote today and get this done. Pressure on him to do so will be intense. But in the meantime, members in the House should sign discharge petitions to A) keep the pressure on and B) create a viable alternative for Ukraine aid.
A bipartisan letter from 91 key members of Congress urges
@SpeakerJohnson
to bring the Senate-passed supplemental aid package to a vote immediately. We couldn’t agree more.
This would deliver urgent assistance to Ukraine and could be sent to
@POTUS
’s desk for signature tonight.
The
@WhiteHouse
policy limiting what Ukraine can strike must change. Ukraine must be able to target not just a Russian bomber already killing civilians, but the airbase where that bomber is stationed before it kills again.
#LetUkraineStrikeBack
at all legitimate military targets
All restrictions imposed on Ukraine to use Western weapons against legitimate military targets inside russia must be lifted. There's not a single reason that can justify this ban.
Russia knows the
@WhiteHouse
has tied Ukraine’s hands. Russia readies and launches its artillery, soldiers, and bombers just across the border to exploit the White House’s safe haven policy.
It’s insanity.
#LetUkraineStrikeBack
.
We are not asking to target their schools or shopping malls. We are not terrorists.
All we want is to destroy the russian artillery - the one hiding behind the border and turning Kharkiv into next Mariupol.
We need a true right to self-defense.
An impressive list of experts, including
@McFaul
,
@PMBreedlove
,
@FukuyamaFrancis
, Amb. Marie Yovanovitch,
@JohnEdHerbst
, and more, pushing back on wrongheaded arguments from prominent places like the NYT and talking much-needed common sense on Ukraine.
“Every single hard-earned US dollar is a bullet aimed at autocracy. This is the arsenal of democracy at work. Americans know the true value of freedom and appreciate the price Ukrainians are paying,” writes
@AndriyYermak
for
@AtlanticCouncil
.
Crucial point from Biden: when we send Ukraine military equipment from our stocks, we replace it with new equipment—which means jobs.
Aiding Ukraine isn’t just the right thing to do, it’s also an investment in America. This argument needs to be made far more often.
"Ukraine’s membership in NATO is the only way to guarantee that Putin will not use a cease-fire or other negotiated break in the war to prepare the next phase of his invasion, just as he did between 2014 and 2022," writes
@McFaul
.
“When some leaders ask me what weapons I need, I need a moment to calm myself, because I already told them the week before. It’s Groundhog Day. I feel like Bill Murray.”
Quite the interview with
@ZelenskyyUa
.
BREAKING: Russia has effectively abolished a UN panel of experts monitoring UN sanctions on North Korea with a new UN resolution veto
This ends a monitoring program over North Korea sanctions that has had rare unanimous consent in the UN for ~15 years
"The risk of genocide in Ukraine is now very real." Written last month.
Ukraine experts have long been clear about the path Russia was going down. Maybe the reality is so terrible that others didn't want to believe it was possible. Tragically, we're here.
Ukrainians are fighting and dying for freedom. Belarusians who stand for freedom have been silenced by the KGB. “I don’t want that future for Georgians,” says
@GLandsbergis
, one of the great democratic leaders of our time.
🇺🇦☕️🇬🇧 If you’re in London, check out Cream Dream in Covent Garden. A new cafe owned by a Ukrainian refugee that opened just last month, filled with beautiful Ukrainian art.
The US gave Ukraine some of the best weapons in the world, and Ukrainians achieved remarkable things with them. Now, we’ve just stopped giving them the ammunition to keep using them.
CNN follows Ukrainian troops forced to ration their ammo.
Russia's program of forced mass deportation of Ukrainians far across Russia will go down as one of the greatest modern crimes against humanity.
In the
@newrepublic
, I argue Ukraine's victory on the battlefield is the best way to bring them home.
Washington stands with Ukraine, yesterday and today.
Took flowers today to DC’s statue of Taras Shevchenko. Demonstrators outside the White House also continue in force in support of Ukraine.
These are remarkable Americans who have fought, bled, and lost their loved ones in Ukraine.
Believe it or not, there are members of Congress refusing to meet with them today and tomorrow.
US veterans wounded in Ukraine, as well as the parents of veterans killed by Russia, are in Congress today and tomorrow to urge members not to turn their backs on Ukraine.
"I don't think they truly understand the repercussions if Russia were to succeed."
Senate Republicans blocked aid to Ukraine & aid has now run out. This isn’t theoretical—Putin is emboldened & launching even bigger strikes on civilians. Ammunition for American air defense systems is running out & the Russians may soon be able to destroy them.
This can’t wait.
Putin is ringing in 2024 by launching missiles at Kyiv and around the country as millions of Ukrainians again take shelter in freezing temps. Loud explosions in Kyiv this morning. It’s urgent and critical that we support Ukraine now - to stop Putin here.
With Vance as VP nominee, the chances of support for Ukraine turning into a partisan issue in the 2024 election just skyrocketed. He's pushed relentlessly in Congress for the US to walk away from Ukraine—now would be an excellent time for Ukraine's Republican friends to speak up.
Completely false equivalence from
@SpeakerMcCarthy
. Helping Ukraine emerge victorious is the single greatest investment in American security and global stability that we can make.
.
@SpeakerMcCarthy
says U.S. border security is his priority as funding for Ukraine aid is also in the works: "I support being able to provide the weapons to Ukraine, but America comes first."
🇺🇸
@POTUS
should ditch his Hollywood fundraiser and attend the Ukraine Peace Summit in two weeks.
"(Biden's) absence would only be met by an applause by Putin, a personal, standing applause by Putin," says
@ZelenskyyUa
.
A welcome move from Sweden to
#LetUkraineStrikeBack
. More governments should announce this—both because it’s right and because it adds momentum to the effort to get the
@WhiteHouse
to change course.
Congress passed aid for Ukraine, now
@POTUS
has to let Ukraine actually use it.
Important step today as the Ukraine Victory Resolution is introduced in Congress. The bill would affirm that it is the policy of the US to see Ukraine emerge victorious from this war with its 1991 borders.
Victory is attainable. But it has to be defined.
The foreign ministers of Germany, France, & Poland in a joint op-ed: "[Putin's] invasion of Ukraine has also proven that a policy of concessions vis-à-vis Russia, in the hopes that it could bring peace or stability back to the Continent, is naive."
Especially outside of Ukraine, we seem to have just forgotten that only a few weeks ago Russia created one of the most significant man-made environmental catastrophes in modern times.
Devastating photo series of what came after the flood.
Kyiv was reportedly successful in defending against a ballistic missile thanks to Patriots—but the air raid is still underway with explosions reported in the city and more kamikaze drones coming from the north.
It doesn’t have to be this way. Let Ukraine strike the launch sites.
First time I’ve been able to watch a PAC-3 interception from launch to successful engagement; the speed and agility of the system is genuinely astonishing…
Outstanding
@PostOpinions
column from
@jimgeraghty
on how American evangelicals support aid to Ukraine once they learn about Russia’s persecution of Christians.
Polling we did at
@razomforukraine
found the same thing + a surprising stat on MAGA support.
The U.S. ambassador suffering under air raids alongside Ukrainians. This is a solvable problem, but Congress is on yet another vacation.
Do we care about our diplomats? About our allies? U.S. credibility is burning away by the day.
“[Biden] still has six months to give Ukraine the best chance of victory, including by removing restrictions on Ukrainian forces striking military targets in Russia,” writes
@FredKempe
, though the final outcome will likely be determined in the next admin.
Razom for Ukraine is calling on
@POTUS
@WhiteHouse
to immediately change its policy banning Ukraine from striking all legitimate military targets in Russia.
Razom's Director of Advocacy Mykola Murskyj breaks down exactly why this policy must change.
Let Ukraine defend itself.
“You are on the side of Russians, or on the side of Ukrainans. You have to choose.”
It shouldn’t be a shock to anyone that when all’s said and done, the world—and especially Ukraine—will remember who stepped up and who sat on the sidelines.
No matter what, it's worth remembering just how much time has been wasted here. Ukraine is running out of ammo, more missiles are getting through air defense, more people are dying.
This delay is happening because some are choosing political power over national interest.
The coming days will be critical for Ukraine.
Does Trump come out against a deal? Does the Senate bring something to a vote anyway? Can Ukraine and immigration be delinked?
America's allies are watching. Putin is watching. Ukrainians are fighting and dying.
What are we doing?
EU Commission President
@vonderleyen
: Ukraine has to win, Russia has to lose.
@POTUS
should say the same. Our goal should be not just Ukrainian survival, but Ukrainian victory.
President
@vonderleyen
visited Bucha today. “It is horrible. There are almost no words that can explain what I saw.”
“There were still the bodies. Atrocious. Unbelievable. Shocking. This is the brutal face of Putin’s war… He has to fail. He has to fail and Ukraine has to win.”
The Western commentariat need to get how ridiculous this question is.
As Americans, we’d never surrender millions of our fellow citizens to a murderous dictator. Why are we surprised Ukrainians will fight for survival and liberty?
After nearly 2 years of refusing to supply Ukraine with ATACMS missiles,
@Newsweek
reports the U.S. may soon scrap hundreds of ATACMS—at "significant" expense to taxpayers—that could instead be sent to Ukraine.
This would be an unacceptable win for Putin.
Above all, this shows that US politics in 2024 are too unmoored from rational statecraft for Europe and Ukraine to rely on America. That is a devastating reality.
I'm hoping to publish a more detailed article soon on what Europe can do to hedge against a second Trump admin.
It's possible McConnell is trying to open the path to delinking Ukraine and immigration reform so that a Ukraine (maybe w/ Israel) package can be put forward on its own merits.
As a Senate Republican staffer said privately last week, the votes for Ukraine are absolutely there.
Pentagon spokesperson says we believe the weapons the US *and* other countries give to Ukraine should only be used to “take back Ukrainian sovereign territory.”
This is a bizarre policy. Ukraine can only attack, but can’t defend against Russian strikes from across the border?
Despite what Sec. Blinken said in Kyiv, the Pentagon says that the US-provided weapons should be used on the battlefield within UKR territory (Blinken said the US doesn't encourage strikes in Russia but it's up to UKR.) I asked whether this was a request or a binding condition.
From prison, Russian opposition leader Alexey
@navalny
calls on Russians to take to the streets.
“Let's not ‘be against the war.’ Let's fight against the war,” he says.
5/12 I am from the USSR myself. I was born there. And the main phrase from there - from my childhood - was "fight for peace." I call on everyone to take to the streets and fight for peace.
Truly in awe. Power in Lviv went out after Russian strikes but my Ukrainian language teacher there still insisted on continuing our lesson on Skype and did so by candlelight.
Then power comes back on in the middle! 🇺🇦
Big thanks to
@kimbrunhuber
&
@cnni
for having me on today to discuss how Ukrainians are celebrating the Kerch Bridge explosion, my recent
@ForeignPolicy
piece on Russia’s doomed mobilization, and
@elonmusk
’s flawed peace proposal for Ukraine.
The Russians are “smart now because they know there is a restriction for Ukrainians to shoot at the Russian territory. We saw all of their military equipment sitting 1-2km from the border [near Kharkiv] and there was nothing we could do.”
@SashaUstinovaUA
Every second, hour, and day that America delays in delivering aid to Ukraine is a gift to Vladimir Putin.
House Republicans are long overdue to recognize the urgency of this moment.
The future of democracy in Europe and our own national security interests are on the line.
Despite McConnell's comments, not all Republicans are on board.
"Somebody who is trying to defeat legislation, all in the name of running for office? That is irresponsible,"
@BillCassidy
told
@USATODAY
.
Never a bad time to remind Americans that Ukrainians aren’t asking us to come fight for them. Russia started a war with them and they’ve fought it for eight years. We’re just on the same side, and they’re asking for the tools they need.
Ukraine is not our country and not our problem. Anyone who would risk a war with Russia for the sake of some random country 6000 miles away is a fool or a psychopath or both. Move to Ukraine and enlist in the army if you care so much. Our sons don't need to die for this bullshit.
We’ve heard how Musk foiled a Ukrainian strike on Crimea for fear of triggering WWIII. Less known is that weeks later, Ukraine tried again and succeeded. The nukes never came.
Cautionary tale from
@anneapplebaum
on our Kremlin-inspired escalation fears.
The Ukraine bill is out and available to read. I'm looking through now for differences from the Senate supplemental.
Link:
One that immediately jumps out is the requirement to transfer long-range ATACMS "as soon as practicable."
As the
#NATOSummit
begins in Washington, it was an honor to see
@ZelenskyyUa
and Ukraine’s leadership pay tribute at DC’s memorial to the Holodomor, Stalin’s man-made famine genocide. Ukraine is fighting today to stop Putin from destroying the Ukrainian nation.
Today and in the coming days, we will be working at the NATO Summit in the United States, beginning in Washington by honoring the victims of the 1932-1933 Holodomor at the Memorial near the US Capitol.
The inscription reads: “The Holodomor of 1932-1933. In memory of the millions
Finally. With Ukrainian flags waving on the floor of the House of Representatives, Ukraine aid passes. It should have happened months ago, but I’m glad it happened today.
Time for the Senate to finish the job. Let’s get Ukraine what it needs to win.