Domer @Domahhhh Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Domer

@Domahhhh

9,760

Followers

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Following

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Full-time political bettor since 2007. I don't tweet much, and we're all better off for it.

Joined January 2018

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

6 years

If you're interested in betting on anything as a serious endeavor, a few recommended reads: -Thinking, Fast and Slow -Intelligent Investor Ch 8 -Fortune's Formula -Cracking the Code - -Deep Value -Big Short/Moneyball -When Genius Failed -Superforecasting

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The Gambler Who Cracked the Horse-Racing Code

Bill Benter did the impossible: He wrote an algorithm that couldn’t lose at the track. Close to a billion dollars later, he tells his story for the first time.

www.bloomberg.com

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@Domahhhh

Domer

5 months

@mkhammer Congrats on the worst reaction tweet I've seen. Not only is this sentiment a poor one, but he is also obviously not going to jail so it makes no sense!

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@Domahhhh

Domer

7 days

A long-winded and winding update on Fredi9999 -- the person or entity -- who is singlehandedly rocketing up the price of Trump on prediction markets around the world. Spoiler alert: I managed to make contact with him, I think, and he blocked me after a few minutes. Sensitive

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@Domahhhh

Domer

16 days

Biggest current user on Polymarket is "Fredi9999" -- who is himself a curiosity. He is by far the largest holder of Trump shares, checking in at 7.2 million shares and counting. The user has a total of $6.4 million in positions, all of them on Trump. He also has a lot of cash

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@jacksonhinklle @elonmusk If you want to see fake numbers, a reminder that the geniuses at the CNE released perfectly round numbers. The odds of three numbers out of ten million votes being exactly round percentages is about a billion trillion to one:

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 months

A very contentious market on RFK Jr. dropping out in his speech today started the day in the 90s for YES dropping out, crashed to the single digits during the speech, and settled in the 20s/30s post-speech. RFK Jr. announced he was exiting the race in 10 battleground states and

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@NateSilver538 Seems very obvious to me that Shapiro is a suboptimal pick, but I guess it's not obvious to a lot of pundits.

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Domer

3 months

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@EmeraldRobinson Trump is Cleaning House before his Second Term. I LOVE it

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

It begins. Got a sizable 2024 bet in the books: my $260k to GCR's $200k on whether Trump is the GOP presidential nominee. I've got the FIELD; GCR is betting on TRUMP.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

16 days

@BeachPalm19995 Okay, glad we got that settled that it's not a large bet.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

7 days

@Evan_ss6 @elonmusk Tbc I don't really care who the person exactly is at all; I am not trying to date them or dox them. Mostly just trying to find out why they're doing it and also why they're doing it the way they're doing it.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@JackPosobiec HUGE win for Trump #Kraken

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

The funny thing is, and this may seem unbelievable but it's completely true -- I bet on Vance starting many months ago, because Vance was only 2 letters off of Pence and I knew Trump's affinity for consistent marketing (and one syllable names).

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

The Venezuelan Election, and Prediction Markets as Truth (very long post -- SICKOS ONLY) Starting with a little history -- the first big prediction market controversy (and it even made the news) was about a North Korean missile launch in 2006. North Korea launched a missile,

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 years

@elonmusk Is there a cryptocurrency that can help solve this problem?

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@Domahhhh

Domer

6 months

@nfr_podcast I know very little about rap. As an observer: Drake's was funnier and a great first shot. Kendrick's was overall much better and Drake should probably let it end here lol.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

A user on Polymarket has lost around $100k so far betting that Trump will be reinstated as President. BUT he just hit a huge ~$13k payday today with the Hunter Biden indictment! Nice***! ***he promptly reinvested most of the profits into Trump being reinstated in September 🙃🙃

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@Domahhhh

Domer

6 days

@TheStalwart The nebulous account Fredi is up to $30m in bets on Trump, and he keeps aggressively pushing it higher.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

The criticism that prediction markets reflect "conventional wisdom" is a bit daft to me, for a number of reasons. I'll give three of them. 1. It's unclear why reflecting the "conventional wisdom" is bad in the first place, even if it's wrong. It's good to get a numerical grasp

@matthew_d_green

Matthew Green

@matthew_d_green

3 months

Prediction markets seem to be really good at figuring out whatever widespread opinions are prevalent at any given moment, not so great at actually predicting things. Don’t know why people revere them so much.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

49-49, tie game. Trump looking old and confused lately, maybe Republicans should swap in Michelle.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

A user on Polymarket who is down $3m after a series of horrible bets on Dementia Joe staying in the race has redeposited a few more million! ...he is currently shoveling money into Dementia Don winning. One million shares and counting. 😬

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 month

As the world debates 25 vs 50bp cut, two determined traders have bought millions of shares of NO CUT today from the Federal Reserve. Combined, they're risking $350k to win $15 million on this crapola. Balances running low across Polymarket as everyone scrambles to take the

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

If you were on Polymarket the past week, you had a front row seat to a political earthquake; an historical event that will be talked about/referenced for hundreds of years. No hyperbole. Biden was 90c and Kamala was 1c the day before the debate. Now markets rate Kamala Harris as

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@EmeraldRobinson @FoxNews I love it !!! #foxit should be trending. Bless you Emerald, you have a loyal Newsmax watcher here . . .

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@Domahhhh

Domer

18 days

[Long post, again] As prediction markets get bigger, the disputes get bigger, and UMA is having its most active Polymarket dispute ever, with nearly 100 posts of evidence, closing in on 20,000 words. To borrow a comparison made in the Discord, the evidence thread is about to

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@Domahhhh

Domer

5 months

@HawleyMO Glad to hear you survived this perilous encounter with some stickers on your mailbox. Hopefully you catch this thug and PROSECUTE HIM to the fullest extent of the law.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 months

(Long post) As a postscript to RFK dropout kerfuffle, the candidate that UMA and Polymarket ruled dropped out of the Presidential race last Friday just did two things to immediately call into question whether that was the correct decision: 1. He just filed with the state of

@Domahhhh

Domer

2 months

A very contentious market on RFK Jr. dropping out in his speech today started the day in the 90s for YES dropping out, crashed to the single digits during the speech, and settled in the 20s/30s post-speech. RFK Jr. announced he was exiting the race in 10 battleground states and

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@NateSilver538 Yup, they've boxed themselves in by the pitfalls of the model. Kamala is obviously doing much better than Biden, but the 538 model is going to show her doing worse. So they'll need to change the (already opaque) model before re-publishing it.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

Seems like an opportune time to write a little bit about some bad stuff that happens on prediction markets, including a recently unearthed scam that was aimed directly at my face.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

Took a couple years to hit $100m in volume. The jump from $100m to $200m in volume took 78 days. 📈

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@Polymarket

Polymarket

6 months

. @Domahhhh just hit $100m in trading volume. Respect.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

5 months

Biggest rule fight in the history of Polymarket is brewing, and will come to a head in the next few hours. The Ethereum ETF market has $11m in volume. The market is 5x larger than the previous biggest rules fight (the missing submarine being located). That disparity will only

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@Domahhhh

Domer

22 days

@ChrisCillizza It's actually amazing to me how bad you are at political punditry.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 months

DNC "surprise guest" tonight proving to be a big market -- if it's George W. Bush, I'll eat a shoe. And also lose $40k lol.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

Me: $70k Wice: $1m GCR: $100m @elonmusk -- you're next up, bro.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@lxeagle17 I couldn't disagree more. The easiest people to bet against in the history of election betting is people who are appointed instead of elected. They nearly always underperform when they're up for election. If the goal is to beat Trump, the process should have input from voters.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

Shkreli has accepted: his $30k on yes ($DJT on Sol is real -- launched by Trump/associated with Trump). My $70k on No. Normally I'd hedge, but I think decently high chance I'm being freerolled here and I either owe $70k or he refuses to pay lol. Will be a good story either way.

@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

@MartinShkreli Interesting. How about my $70k (on No) to your $30k (on Yes)?

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

If you had told me 6 mos ago that (1) Martin Shkreli would pump a "Trump" shitcoin and (2) describe a definitely-not-100% market (trading at 14% rn) as "100% guaranteed", and (3) lead a herd of poor saps to incinerate tens of thousands of dollars buying yes to pump said

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 months

Federal Reserve members have all but guaranteed a rate cut in September, but BasedBoi is undettered. He's bought, so far, almost 2.3m shares and he'll make $2.2m in profits if they were just joking around about cutting.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

You wanna get nuts? If Biden is going to stay in, let's get nuts.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

@joshrogin @elonmusk @ianbremmer I'd put it at around a 96%-98% chance that Bremmer is the liar here.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

July will be impossible to top, but the scriptwriters are workshopping on new some very funny plotlines for the August season:

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@EmeraldRobinson @newsmax YES!!! Now we need @realDonaldTrump to call into THIS show in his second term, instead of Fox & Friends. Because we are DONE with Fox News forever

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@Domahhhh

Domer

21 days

A post for masochists and prediction market nerds: There are a dizzying 5+ contentious and nuanced markets up for a vote in UMA right now from Polymarket. Going to kind of summarize the operative issues and give my thoughts. -IDF entering Lebanon by the end of September & IDF

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

We did it, Joe! Congrats to @TarasBob who also diamonds-handed Joe Biden dropping out. Never in doubt.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

The best-yielding bonds on planet earth -- with 16+% annualized returns and lower risk than t-bills -- are on @PolymarketHQ . QAnon is sending their highest-level intellectuals to buy this crapola on a nearly daily basis.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

7 days

@fozzydiablo @Evan_ss6 @elonmusk

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@Domahhhh

Domer

10 months

Buckle up, @Polymarket just launched what is likely (imho) to be the biggest prediction market ever: winner of 2024 election. Will probably push for $1b in volume, toppling PredictIt & Betfair for #1 . Can already get hundreds of thousands of shares near midpoint (like RFK Jr).

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

We'll see if it holds, but this much is true: the debate had more impact on betting odds than any event in modern Presidential history, and it's not close. 2nd place was the "grab em by the p-word" tape from Trump in 2016 that dropped his odds to be POTUS by around 7%. Biden,

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 month

@LaCivitaC I hope you enjoy your final few days on the campaign, Chris.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

🚨In the past hour, Biden's odds to be President (17%) have now fallen far below other Democrats (~22% combined) to be the next President. Traders on @Polymarket now anticipate Biden at 50/50 to drop his re-election bid. Resignation by the end of the month is trading at 7%.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

Hillary currently at 25-1 odds on the markets. If anyone wants to sidebet on Hillary, will give you 120-1 odds that she is the nominee. Free huge arb.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

Speaking of pundits, all of the worst ones I know all think Walz is a bad pick. Which means he might be the best pick in the history of VP selections. Lol. (Not that I think VP picks matter, unless you really f--- up like with Vance, who is on track to be worse than Palin)

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

Trump at 54% to win, his lowest level in 2 months. The million share club is up to 6 people, but ALL these shares are in the red now, except for Vooncer.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

Bama124, who has only traded 39 markets, is BY FAR the big winner of the Dem Veepstakes on Polymarket. Tim Walz traded BELOW 1% when he was added. Josh Shapiro, the longtime frontrunner, traded as high as 82%. Roy Cooper (33%), Mark Kelly (44%), and Andy Beshear (30%) were

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

Think we just had the worst ruling on a prediction market dispute I've ever seen, this one from Polymarket on LayerZero's "airdrop." Thankfully rule disputes are very rare or I'd probably end up involuntarily committed to an asylum at this point. LONG post ahead that many

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@Domahhhh

Domer

11 months

Markets like this are what make prediction markets so fun and hilarious. Sam Altman to return as CEO of OpenAI has gone from 3% likelihood on @Polymarket to a 90% likelihood back to a 3% likelihood and now back to a 33% chance.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

Slight plot twist to the @zachxbt scoop: verso.sol funded the "diamondfnf" Polymarket account which is by far the largest owner of Yes in the "Is $DJT real?" market. Diamondfnf put in a 20c floor on the Polymarket market up until around 3pm yesterday afternoon. Approximaely 2

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@zachxbt

ZachXBT

4 months

One of the large DJT insiders verso.sol dumping $832K worth of DJT and then depositing USDC to CEX ~1 hr ago Coincidentally also a large holder on Martin’s other project Shoggoth 5cPzLzLQjt2oc8X6rGannrh7HmVJNAMFJKq21DdZRuHP

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

There's not exactly moral victories in betting, but if there is, today was a big one. I had a large and losing bet, at around 20-1 odds, on a surprise Fed cut in July, because the employment risks were (imho) so tilted in favor of starting to cut. I thought it was obv nutso to

@byHeatherLong

Heather Long

3 months

The Fed looks foolish for not cutting in July. The labor market is deteriorating. July unemployment rate: 4.3% (up from 3.5% last July) Unemployed Americans: 7.2 million (v. 5.9 mil last July) Long-term unemployed: 1.5 million (v. 1.2 mil last July) -->Big jump in unemployment

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 month

Couple of funny losses in the past 2 days. Lost $4k when a Hunger Games villain asked Trump a question. Was trading at 8c a few days ago. He paid $25k to attend a dinner with Trump and managed to get Trump's attention. I respect the hustle. He deserved it. Gl to him against

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@notthreadguy

threadguy 👑

1 month

pov: donald trump calls on you

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@Domahhhh

Domer

9 months

Trump is up to 55c to be the next President on Polymarket after two traders bought almost 2 million shares combined. We could be in for a market where Trump's price is permanently a few cents higher on Poly vs elsewhere due to highly caffeinated crypto bros.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 years

I've lost $12,000 so far live-trading @Redistrict 's tweets on the NYC mayoral race.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

OUT: Getting 5% annual yield from TreasuryDirect as long as the US Govt doesn't fail. IN: Getting 13% annual yield from Polymarket as long as Bitcoin doesn't 40x to a $19 trillion market cap.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

I managed to cross the $1m mark in volume on Polymarket in June. Prediction markets are MUCH bigger than they were a few years ago, but still have tons of room to grow. 👍

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@Domahhhh

Domer

5 months

👀👀 People are really convinced this is a legit possibility, and it's tough to disagree too much. This is one of the biggest markets on the site, not just a few traders.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

@mlcalderone @gabrielsherman Jeesh, you had me for a second with this story. Then I saw Gabriel Sherman wrote it, and that it is basically just dressed-up gossip.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 years

That CONSTITUTION auction, and the few minutes of uncertainty are an all-time great prediction market moment. The LOSING side went to 99.9%, for YES, because the winner was misreported. Was able to get shares of the winning side at 700-1 odds during the commotion.

@Polymarket

Polymarket

3 years

After an aggressive start the odds of @ConstitutionDAO winning have flipped to 50/50. Nail biter.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@EmeraldRobinson I long ago switched from CNN to Fox News, I was tired of the libral agenda and promoting all sorts of things I did not like or agree with. Now I have switched again !!! This time to NewsMax and hopefully this is my last switch. I love NEWSMAX

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

💀💀💀

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

After a lot of cajoling, I agreed to have a photo of me attached to an interview.

@DLNewsInfo

DL News

4 months

He’s up $700,000 and a bad Trump bet looms — confessions of a Polymarket addict

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

Welp. Dark day. CFTC racks up another kill of a prediction market, and shanks PredictIt in broad daylight. FYI, guessing people will panic about their funds. My educated guess is they're 99.99% safe, and panic is unwarranted.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@umichvoter VP "reporting" is all gossip anyway. Might as well add more gossip to the slop pile.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

Joe Biden hits a fresh low at 22%, and Kamala surges to the overwhelming favorite to be the Democratic nominee in the 2024 election. The end seems nigh. TBD if Joe has one more comeback in him.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@SpecialPuppy1 @NateSilver538 So thinking forward to the election, the biggest weakness for her campaign is that she is literally a California liberal (from San Francisco of all places). That's not an ideal electoral attribute, nationally! Not sure which is less popular for voters writ large, San Francisco

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@Domahhhh

Domer

8 months

Polymarket is becoming subject to a novel attack on prediction markets: the resolution attack. Manifests itself in a couple ways: (1) disputing clear resolutions (2) resolving markets early And scarily often successful due to UMA. Two ABSURD examples & funny plot twist:

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@Polymarket This post is like a bad black mirror episode

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Domer

1 month

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 years

Milestone brag. Just correctly predicted Facebook would change its name to Meta and made $1k on that market on @PolymarketHQ . And I just crossed $100k profit on the site. All of my bets are catalogued here:

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 month

@tbonier Should we base it on your very misleading tweets instead?

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@Domahhhh

Domer

6 days

Kinda funny: WSJ just wrote about this as if they discovered it. They left out the French connection -- I don't blame them, there's no hard proof, but it's the best part of the story. They also seem to lean a bit into manipulation. Who knows...hopefully

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A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets Has Moved a Popular Prediction Market

Four Polymarket accounts have systematically placed frequent bets on a Trump election victory.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

Managed to crack the $30k profit mark on the debt ceiling bill on @Kalshi , was a truly great market!

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@Domahhhh

Domer

7 months

Definitely have no idea what I'm doing, but nonetheless I'm betting a lot that SBF gets sentenced to ~30 years, give or take 5 years in the next few minutes. Think if I'm wrong, it's because of leniency rather than punititiveness. If I'm REALLY wrong, he gets 40+ years or

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 years

Super interesting to me that some of the most informed & important coronavirus predictions are happening in markets on the blockchain -- on a site 99.9% of Americans have never heard of, @PolymarketHQ . People are researching these topics in-depth and putting sizable $$$ bets in.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

2 years

One final thought: a lot of fraudsters are smart people & profitable traders. Greed gets the best of them; they want short cuts to make money. An important facet of a functional market -- that PI never implemented but the real-life stock market does -- is to exile these folks.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

There's a lot of pushback from the intellectual (normally data-loving!) left on Trump currently being the favorite in this election both on prediction markets & in the polling. If the election were today, in spite of the fact that Trump is a felon & very unpopular, the data

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@JamesSurowiecki

James Surowiecki

@JamesSurowiecki

4 months

@bendreyfuss Especially true because they're not that liquid, so these kinds of contradictions aren't easy to arbitrage away.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 months

@SlabDotETH I'm still holding Kam, bc a 50/50 race is starting to feel a little inevitable in the near term future.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@EmeraldRobinson A Great President -- I like to think and I tell people that JFK would be a Republican if he was alive today. He would have nothing to do with these liberal banshees as they exist Today.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

@EmeraldRobinson @FoxNews Fox News is the new MSNBC they care about there Dem viewers than they do loyal Republicans. It's a JOKE and not a funny one.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

7 months

Don't mind me, just throwing out $10k on Aaron Rodgers being RFK's VP lol. If this loses, no one tell the wife please. Thank you.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

Busy little bee in July, cracked $1m again in volume! The active market to kick off Aug is the superconductor; price has gone from 20c to 55c in past 24h. I now own 12k shares of NO & hired a team of fiver scientists to explain to me what a superconductor is before I bet more.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 months

@mattyglesias @NateSilver538 I bet a lot of money on this stuff. Nate's model is the best of the three by far. But really, the God-king in this space is Nate Cohn. His poll is the law. And it's biblically horrible for Biden. Not even Cormac McCarthy could invent something as terrifying as that poll.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 month

And then this one is a bad beat, but also funny... 5 MONTHS ago, the biggest net loser in Polymarket history ("therealbatman") made a large bet at 80c that CZ would get out of prison before the EIGEN token was transferable. I was his ~entire counter party. I thought it would

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

@FarnoushAmiri

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

About $300k of that volume is a trade with me. Sorry, not sorry. I do think all of the markets are tasteful and important, but I understand the concept is not acceptable to some!

@Osinttechnical

OSINTtechnical

@Osinttechnical

1 year

If anyone here wants to feel slightly better about themselves, a group of problem gamblers have bet a total of $478,599 on various aspects of the current Israel–Hamas war.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

4 years

January 2021 is my most active month of trading ever on PredictIt (903k shares traded) and my most profitable by....[puts on glasses and squints at the pivot table]....a factor of 2. And it's only January 14th!

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@Domahhhh

Domer

9 months

In exciting news, Polymarket is exploding in growth, and I've crossed the $10m mark in trading this month. In less exciting news, the P&L calculations are borked, and the more I trade, the more it thinks I am losing. Currently in the hole for 37 Toyota Camrys worth of losses.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

3 years

@NateSilver538 I would bet heavily against this

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 month

@awealthofcs Letting out a Ric Flair "Woo" in a loud whisper is appropriate in this situation.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

Huge trading month for me at @Polymarket . Provided a ton of liq to the Israel/Palestine markets that have done beaucoup volume. Some big losses & big wins. Interesting recent trade: a guy betting $900 that @SBF_FTX is sentenced to LIFE IN PRISON against my $9100 that he's not.

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@Domahhhh

Domer

1 year

BONKERS sub market on @polymarkethq : -Went omega-viral as ppl screamed it was "betting on death" -Flipped from 5% last night to 96% today -Did $700k in volume in 48hrs -Back to 74% because the Yes resolution was DISPUTED & it now heads to the horrible, rigged UMA kangaroo court.

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