Author of Red Roulette. Ex China real estate developer, ex CPPCC member, ex CFA, ex Beijinger … Current Hong Konger, current dad, current home chef, current…
I was one of those kids
I was selected at six to be a swimmer because of my body structure. I went thru the same process of training, as these kids. The state has no interest in our welfare. It just burns through individual athletes. Eventually, one will come through after
Tesla reap what it sow
Tesla has lost a few hundred billion in market cap YTD. Plenty of that can be attributed to Chinese competition. BYD replaced Tesla as the world’s biggest EV company at the end of last year.
I say Tesla essentially groom its competitors to outcompete
One disappearance after another. My ex wife Whitney Duan, Jack Ma, the lady tennis star Peng Shuai,
@AmbQinGang
, Bao Fan, etc… The list goes on. I think whether Qin comes back or not is beyond the point now. It looks terrible and it just reflects the current state of China
My book in Chinese is finally coming next February in Taiwan. Taiwan today is the only place that would publish a book in Chinese that’s not approved by CCP. But even in Taiwan, it’s complicated. The first contracted publisher chickened out. It was rushing to publish at
It wasn’t a slip of tongue. Lu was toeing the line that CN has embarked on since Xi came to power. Xi has been talking about reshaping world order for years “A great number of countries, especially developing countries, want to see a more just and
It’s not Beijing doesn’t recognize the problem, or it “mistakes the economy’s current troubles for something transitory”. It’s much more fundamental. China’s growth model - “export driven, infrastructure building, property development, and state directed”
1/3
Good piece by
@nate_taplin
. He argues that China is facing real structural difficulties, not a temporary downturn, in which case "rhetorical support for entrepreneurs and consumers may not be enough to turn things around."
This only has happened because CCP is desperate
Tesla has made it onto the procurement list of Jiangsu provincial govt. This only happened after foreign investment into China has fallen for 12 months straight.
This is not CCP has a change of heart. It’s a tactical move trying
⚡🇨🇳JUST IN
The official media account of Shanghai Lingang New Area has confirmed that several state-owned enterprises have taken the lead in purchasing a batch of
#Tesla
Model Y vehicles for corporate use. This move positively responds to Vice Premier He Lifeng's call for equal
Penetrative understanding of China luxury market. I had a recent conversation w a leading authority of global luxury industry. His insights on China are fabulous. He said CN is the most fertile ground for luxury brands. Because CCP has destroyed tradition / religions in CN, and
THE economist to follow on China I’ve followed his interviews, commentaries and writings for a while. He’s the best I’ve found over the past few years.
To understand today’s China, one first needs to be fully conscious that China economy is intertwined
Where are Chinese migrating to?
I caught up w a long time friend. We met in the 90s when we both were starting our careers in HK. He gave an observation on Chinese migration, as Chinese economy deteriorates: “Wealth Chinese move to Japan. Rich and ambitious ones move to
Today’s journalism on china power politics is modern day fantasy land. The story tells a lot about today’s China. It’s all about Xi, the paramount leader.
Why do I say this story is a fantasy?
1. Former CCP chairman and country president was humiliated in
Dictators share a preference: grandiosity. They prefer to be seen as transcendent above common ppl. They want to be seen as untouchables. Can you imagine any democratically elected leader to appear in such a way? Biden / Macron / Trudeau of the world wants to appears as to be in
THE banker of China IT industry. Fan and I started our careers about the same time. He was working for Morgan Stanley when we first met. We have been friends over 2 decades and watched the growth of each other
Europeans talk the talk but don’t walk the walk
Since I moved to Europe a few years ago, it dawns on me that Europeans are really self interest focused, while they keep talking as if they are champion of human rights, universal values and global norms. I think they talk so much
There's been a massive rise in exports from the EU to Armenia. It's no mystery where these exports are ultimately going. Exports from Armenia to Russia are up 430% from before Russia invaded Ukraine. All these western goods help Putin keep his war economy going...
Another disappearance in CN. His publishing house reneged on my book publishing contract a year ago. While I was disappointed, I didn’t mind that because I firmly believed my book would eventually be published in Chinese. During our conversation at the
For old Beijingers: Great Wall Sheraton Hotel has closed for over six months now due to lack of business
It was the first joint venture 4 star hotel in Beijing, started operation in 1983. Ronald Regan stayed there in 1985 during his visit. It was also the first building in China
What’s my allegiance? I recently was asked: I speak out so much about ccp China. How would I define my allegiance as an Chinese? The question reverberates in my mind. My answer: I don’t have allegiance to China. I feel it in my bone that I’m a Shanghainese and I’m a Hong Konger.
All these talks about
#Kissinger
, I got a story for you. About 20 years ago, a friend, Mr A, worked w Kissinger. As you probably know, Kissinger Associates rep major intl corporations in a China. A lot of ex US politicians set up offices in Beijing. It’s about the perception that
My personal story of Chinese swimmers doping
I shared my story of being a child swimmer in Shanghai in the 1970s. I was a swimming for the prep team of Shanghai municipality, which has always been one of the best in China. I was second best in freestyle and best in backstroke.
My view of UK after spending a few years here
- Overall: I see UK has been boxing above its weight class for far too long, so long that it has forgotten what’s its actual weight class. First it was the “vast empire on which the sun never sets”, then it was the leader of
CN keeps spreading the myth of deglobalization. I first met Yan couple of decades ago when we were sitting together at a dinner in Beijing. As I was known to fund academics, he talked to me about funding a research project he’s on. He was rather arrogant
Hong Kong is now CCP Hong Kong. Couple of friends shared me their recent experience working at HK Customs Department. I think it tells a lot about how CCP works to control the civil service. 1. On the day of Jiang Zemin funeral service last December, live board-cast were arranged
Why is Xi executing mass purge and what are the implications? China Defense Chief Mystery Adds to Leadership Turbulence In addition to former foreign minister and current defense minister missing, there are arrests of multiple generals in the rocket
Conspiracy theories on Li Keqiang death should remain just conspiracies. A couple of stories that I learned suggest Li met his natural death. 1. In 2011, just months before Xi/Li assumed power, there were concerns and discussions in the politburo whether these two should be
#1
CCP is overseeing the demise of Hong Kong. Financial services industry has been the core pillar of HK economy. Wealth mgt AUM in HK peaked in 2020, and fall off the cliff in 2022 (down 16%). HK wealth mgt industry grew because China wealth owners wanted to be out of ccp reach.
Next time you write about Chinese economy, pls stop for a minute and consider this before continuing. There’s no SOE (state owned enterprises). There’s only POE (party owned enterprises) in China. Pls stop using the term SOE, and start using the correct terminology/concept POE.
Xi wants to close CN to the world Dong seems to be an intellectual w int’l perspective, a rare commodity in CN. The arrest of this renowned intellectual on espionage charge is consequential. It is sending a message to all Chinese
I have something to say about Neil Shen story Neil, Bao Fan and I are entrepreneurs of the same generation and similar background - all from Shanghai, studied overseas, worked in int’l financial companies, and started in Hong Kong in 90s. As a matter of
I’ve been down on CN for years now, and my view continues to be confirmed. Recently, I’ve learnt half of an elite group of VC and entrepreneurs that I’m familiar w, about 140 in total, have moved out of CN, to Dubai, Singapore and west coast. This tells how the elites see the
Too bad you were not climbing CCP power ladder with the right guy at the right time! Prof Wu done a thorough research on new generation of CCP senior bureaucrats Xi essentially skipped a generation of cadres promoted by the past adm. In CCP methodology ,
How we normalize abnormal China! Wang Yi doesn’t hold any position in the state. He only holds a CCP party position. But he now is executing state functions without any state authority. It’s like a RNC official has been assigned to run the state department
Why would I say China foreign ministry is paralyzed now? Because I’ve lived thru similar situations. When the top dog is disappeared by the state, everyone in the organization freezes. Because 1, no one is certain why the person has been taken. So you are not sure how any of your
Taiwan manufacturing is pulling out of China, but locals is also leaving en masse. Last week, I met w some Taiwanese manufacturing titans. They are all working to limit their CN exposure. Some have more success than others. What surprised me is to learn CN local manufacturers are
How would CN economy perform these 12 months will be decisive. Most analysts predicts CN 2023 growth about 5%. Key pillars of CN growth, exports, investment spending and property development, have all been struggling. To start, 5% growth after a “unbelievable” 3% in 2022 is not
Influx of mainlanders can’t possibly replace exodus of Hong Kongers. A city is identified by its unique physical, cultural and social characteristics. This new influx is replacing Cantonese w their putonghua (“mandarin speaking”), sichuan food replacing Cantonese cuisine,
I would rather Li than Xi lying dead today, if I’ve to choose one. I would be more worried if Li Keqiang assumed power in 2012 instead of Xi, and a Xi like dictator came afterwar. By that time, ccp China may actually have overtaken US economically, and be lot more threatening in
Imagine how much better things would be for all of the following, had Li Keqiang edged out Emperor Xi:
1. The Chinese, Uyghers, and Tibetans.
2. China's neighbors.
3. China's economy.
RIP Li Keqiang.
China real estate developers are zombies. There are still talks about govt stimulus to revive the sector and resurrect the developers. I’ve been saying this is nonsense for a while now. This would not happen because the business model of the China real estate industry is broken
Has Xi eradicated corruption in China, after a decade long campaign that has punished over 5 million individuals?
This is a frequently asked question by journalists since my book came out. My general answer: China cannot eradicate corruption if there’s no freedom of press,
Never in my wildest dream would I think he would be the most powerful bureaucrat in Hong Kong. Andrew was a classmate of mine at Queen’s College in HK. He was a nice kid, very mediocre in academic, nothing to speak of in sports, and come
The drop off of China economy will continue
Several thoughts after my NYC trip (of course being present at that now famous Elon Musk interview was epic)
1. I’ve shared in my previous posts why I think China real estate sector is intractable. Listening myself trying to explain
Maybe it’s time for Europeans to change their minds. When my book first came out couple of years ago, I told Europeans that China would never topple American to be the world’s largest economy. They looked at me in exasperation, as if I’m talking against the law of physics. I
For 1st time in almost 30 years, China’s GDP in $ fell in 2023 to about $17.5trn, while U.S. gdp rise 6% to about $27trn. The gap widened by about $2trn. And China’s share of world GDP slipped to just under 17%. How meaningful is this? 1/4
China is deploying its decades long manufacturing replacement strategy to semiconductor.
1. China manufacturing started w low end products like plastic toys and tee shirts. That built manufacturing base and logistics infrastructure, trained its labor force, imported mgt know how
A piece I wrote yesterday, the day before politburo announcement today. To discuss the risk of Taiwan invasion and Chinese economy over the next decade, i think I should start w what is the key motivation factor of Xi
LEGACY
The key issue is to determine what motivates Xi. 1/
My Vietnam trip taught me that Vietnamese would never trust China. Once I visited Vietnam as a guest accompanied by wife of Vietnamese ambassador to China. Over the trip, I learn the national
I keep running into “China experts”
I remember my college days that I need to go to school library for China news on WSJ. I usually need to flip to page 12 before finding a sliver of news. Today every piece of news has a China angle. And, you find China experts / analysts
Is Xi responsible for balloon fiasco? Yes and No. Recently, there have been all sorts of speculations on why the wandering balloon happened. I interacted w the CCP bureaucracy for two decades, both personally, for example with Premier Wen family, and professionally, like building
What does high youth unemployment in China tell us? 1. Incredulous expansion of school intakes over the past two decades. In 2000, university student numbered just over 3 million; 2010 was about 30 million. 2022 was over 44 million. Party secretary of
Who owns that Gulfstream G650? Chinese TV presenter linked to missing foreign minister had surrogate child in US
There aren’t that many G650 sold in China. Some journalists should look into the ownership of that jet, which was shuttling her between US and
Xi’s ZC policy choice has more to do w his decision on societal control than has to do w pandemic control. I think most analysts are looking at the wrong place when they assess how CN can walk out of ZC. When Xi first came to power, there was a consensus among Beijing political
Protests spreading. Most severe test for Xi since taking power, and at a complex time, domestically and geopolitically
CCP is stuck: having staked Xi authority on Zero Covid, it finds it impossible to take only sensible route out, namely importing MRNA vaccines. Quick 🧵 1/
Maybe you can argue that Singapore is not openly pro China, but Singapore is definitely tilted towards China
Singaporeans seem very upset when I call this out. But, here is another proof in my view.
China is conducting the most aggressive military exercise around Taiwan,
Pro China but not admitting it
Since my last post, it seems many Singaporean respondents are upset that I called Singapore having a pro China stance. Oh well! here is the leading Singapore newspaper: 64% of Singaporean have a favorable view of China; 72% of Singaporean Chinese
How to protect yourself against CCP tech predatory
This is essentially an advice on HR policy or visa granting guidance. I have done business in China for a quarter of century and this is how I would do it.
1. Do not hire any former Chinese govt or SOE employees. Given their
Best writing on China that I’ve read in recent months.
Evan Osnos accurately depicted the mood of China today - gloomy. His storytelling writing is captivating
Why is China prone to overcapacity
In my view the biggest contributing factor is short-termism
As I’ll explain, short-termism is an institutional structure of CCP China. It permeates throughout the entire society. From the top adm., to bureaucrats, business owners and the
Pro China but not admitting it
Since my last post, it seems many Singaporean respondents are upset that I called Singapore having a pro China stance. Oh well! here is the leading Singapore newspaper: 64% of Singaporean have a favorable view of China; 72% of Singaporean Chinese
Interesting story of Xi Jinping. In 2008, Xi was in charge of summer Olympics. How the Olympics fire would be lighted was a state secret - only four ppl was privileged to it in the entire China. Li Ning, who was chosen to light the fire, practiced in the
Because of severe headwind in the economy, Xi is retreating.
1. Overall, Xi is doing a tactically retreat, to entrepreneurs, to real estate sector, to tech industry, to private sector, to foreign investors, and to the West overall. This is evidenced by the forth set of
1/5
"China’s regulator wants provinces to come up with their own plans to handle financial risks," says Bloomberg.
On risk management, says Li Yunze, the head of NFRA, there’ll be “one province, one policy.”
My understanding of McKinsey in China
As you’ve learnt in my book, I had close interactions with ministries and large SOEs during my time in China. The followings are my understanding / knowledge of McKinsey China business
1. Escape by technicality
“Senator, we never work for
NEW:
@McKinsey
-led think-tank advised China on policy
“A McKinsey-led think-tank advised China to deepen cooperation between business and the military and push foreign companies out of sensitive industries as part of a project for the central government.”
Why does a supposedly commercial company, TikTok, engage in political warfare
If I were a shareholder of TikTok, I would say a divesture would be great. The ongoing geopolitical situation shed such uncertainty that TikTok could not have a capital realization event, IPO, without
TikTok hits a double whammy. CEO Chew should be fired
By now, we have all learnt TikTok’s US misinformation political campaign is backfiring. The House Commerce Committee has voted 50-0 the bill to force divestiture of TikTok from Bytedance
And, I think CEO Chew has also
He’s the best scholar on modern China
-
@ChenggangXu2024
is by far the best scholar on modern China. He does many interviews in Chinese, but few in English. Here’s one
- It has been my experience that western scholars/tankies are generally unwilling to
I met Eric Li when he was an associate at US PE firm in mid 90s. We together went on a site visit to a motorcycle factory in Luoyang. He left me a lasting impression because he told me he can decide on that 10M investment himself. I was an analyst w a US PE firm then. 1/
“Universal values are boring! It’s time to move on”
Media mogul and billionaire public intellectual Dr. Eric Li thinks that it’s high time for the world to do away with the Western-led "universal values" and adopt instead China's proposed "common values of mankind."
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CCP state deems functionality of his freedom is done . Fact of the matter is 1, Xu, his entire family and all senior mgt of his companies have been under exit ban for a long time now 2, he is under full surveillance for a long time now. The only reason ccp state hasn’t taken him
Can Chinese find market for its manufacturing?
I recently talked to some friends in China and did some research on the subject of Chinese manufacturing
1. Over the past three decades, China has built tremendous manufacturing capacity and capability. Its strength includes
A ccp propagandist spreading half truth I took pains to watch through her entire presentation. In the crux, she presented achievements while discarding gross societal sacrifices, violation of private property rights, and trouncing personal freedom and
Let me tell you the truth of “Tsinghua clique”. I’m honorary trustee of Tsinghua, gifted Tsinghua its biggest library, funded reestablishment of its humanity college, etc.. I personally know Chen Xi and Chen Jining. First of all, “Tsinghua clique” is a generic concept without 1/
To say dynamics of US/China trade hasn’t changed is simply not true. According to owners of manufacturing in China 1. they do reroute, but it can only be partially done. In addition to additional shipping/insurance costs, finished products are taxed differently from components in
The US trade deficit with China has shrunk by $90 bn since 2018, but that's more than offset by wider US trade deficits with - especially - Vietnam and Mexico. There is no trade decoupling of the US from China. China just sends its products to the US on more circuitous routes...
Did my book launch in Taipei. Interest in my book in Taiwan was incredible. I did 3/4 interviews a day w various media for five days straight, until the day I left. I wasn’t expecting that. I thought it’s just a good excuse to visit Taiwan, after three years of COVID 😱
My read on the root cause of healthcare industry graft in China, now that Xi’s iron fist is onto it. China Health-Care Shares Plunge as Anti-Graft Campaign Widens
As always, Xi addresses the symptom but not the cause. What’s the root cause - ccp
We need to prepare for the downfall of China. For the last few decades, the world had been trying to cope w China growth. In the coming decades, we may have to manage a world w China in decline. Impact of its fall will be as significant as its rise. To the minimum, think tanks
Paul Krugman: "Exactly how China’s bubble will end isn’t clear—it might be a sharp slowdown, or it might be a period of 'low quality' growth that masks the true extent of the problem, but it won’t be pretty."
@paulkrugman
Is there anyone still believe HK can remain a global financial center?
1.
#HongKong
is legalizing lawlessness. If you’ve followed news about HK national security law, you would know it’s an intentionally fuzzy law that essentially allows HK govt to implement it on anyone
You should read this book. It is published more than a decade ago and I believe its thesis is still valid today - CCP CN will slowly decay, environmentally, culturally, economically, but it won’t collapse, as CCP has super strong control on the society. On
21C is China century no more. Taiwan would be the brightest star of east asia in the coming decade
Why Taiwan will shine
1. Culture and heritage:
That’s the fundamental of success. Since my first visit twenty some years ago, I was moved by its unaltered and authentic Chinese
As Chinese economy deteriorates, is it more or less likely that Xi will invade Taiwan? My view: at the moment, I think it’s less likely
First and foremost relevant issue: Does Xi trust his military more or less as Chinese economy deteriorates? I would think Xi trusts his
If one decides to invest in China, I think it’s time to adopt a pathbreaking mindset.
1. I think one needs to fully reconcile with the fact that China is no longer a growth economy. For two decades before 2015, the best strategy to invest in China is long growth. Or as we local
Singapore is not a safe heaven for mainland Chinese
There’s a reason that smart Chinese money resides in Japan, but not Singapore.
Zhang’s funeral in Tokyo also highlighted other CN billionaires living in Japan.
They are all
Hong Kong inadvertently derailed China reform efforts
This assertion contends that China would have to do lot more to its judicial system, economic reform and market opening in order to attract capital in the 1990s and early 2000s, if not for the existence of Hong Kong capital
Peak China v plateau China. That’s an interesting point for discussion. But, I disagree with that assertion of plateau China. Arguments can be made about the pace of decline, be it economic or geopolitical. But plateauing “reach a state of little or no change after a period of
Good corrective by
@mcgregorrichard
on “peak China”:
“It is true that China may no longer be a 10-foot-tall giant sweeping all aside, as much as it likes to project such strength. But it is not drifting into oblivion...”
Singapore is no Switzerland. Switzerland is the ultimate of democracy. Citizens of cantons vote on almost all issues of concerns. SGN has been a benevolent dictatorship, a dictatorship nevertheless. Its affinity is so tight w CCP that I doubt if it’s truly a safe heaven for
A great read, though I really don't like my country being likened to "Switzerland with Chinese characteristics". This little island is multi-ethnic and multi-cultural.
CCP is submerging the govt in the party. One of the key features of China’s reform, started from late 70s, was separation of CCP, the party, from the state. There was an intent to establish CCP as the governing party and the overseer, while state council runs the state..
Oh wow! Didn’t see this one coming
This is essentially forcing firms to get in line - if you get dollars from US govt, you can’t be getting revenues from Chinese govt. This will reshape many in service industry like consulting, auditing, lobbying. But it could also have
Here’s an idea: if a corporation makes millions working for China, it shouldn’t be able to get contracts from the federal government. But firms like McKinsey do it all the time! My bill to stop it passed today
Serious question for economists out there
Chinese real estate price is down 20-30% across tier one cities, like Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen etc.. over the past 12-18 months. Price has dropped more than that in second tier cities and beyond. By all accounts, real estate is about
This is a falsehood push by CCP. Don’t fall for it
CCP has been pushing this falsehood - Trump will negotiate to give up Taiwan to CCP - to persuade Taiwanese to give up trying to defend itself, since its strongest ally is unreliable and could be unavailable. Reality is no US
This is really a stunning figure
30% of delivery driver in China has college degree, while only 15% of population has college degree. So delivery driver is now a knowledge intensive job category 🤣
Met him when he’s a lowly bureaucrat at China UK embassy. My impression: 1. His career developed over the period of china’s opening, and he had been posted in UK. He’s more open minded, more flexible and less dogmatic than the preceding generation of China diplomats; 2. He is
This may be a huge missed opportunity for the US. While serving as Chinese ambassador in DC, Qin Gang was typically shunned and ignored. And now he’s foreign minister. American guanxi with him is low.
Tales of our time
Met up w couple of friends separately. One is a senior headhunter. He told me that US/European companies don’t want mainland Chinese or Hong Kong passport holders on their boards. Because it would complicate the matter if the company needs to get US CIFUS
I feel ppl like these are such fakes. If you truly believe what you are touting, why do you keep your American passport, a country you despised in your speeches? Why wouldn’t you change your passport to China, the true future of humanity for you? If you’re a true believer of 5/
Singaporeans are pro China, but they denied that and claim that’s just being pro
#Singapore
Singaporeans are so irritated by my last tweet 😂. Here’s another one for you - Singapore being pro CCP China. Ho Ching, wife of the last PM and ex CEO of the $300B state investment fund,
What a spin! This is not about making Alibaba more nimble. It’s about breaking up a company that CCP deemed to be too powerful. In historical context, this is like the breakup of the Bell system. The question to ask now: Is this a model that CCP will
Racial profiling of Chinese scientists in US. I recently see reports on US based Chinese scientists returning to a China. Many of these reports complained about racial profiling in DOJ initiative. I see some one sided biases that I would like to highlight. Given that I was a
I’m no fan of
@AmbQinGang
, but this is not true and is hugely unfair. 1. I know and have worked w many bureaucrats in the foreign ministry. Qin is not less talented than any of them. As a matter of fact, he’s more personable, more international in outlook and a better
After Qin’s wife gave Xi’s wife homemade mooncakes, the story goes, Qin won entrance into Xi’s inner social circle.
“He was a marginally talented person, who, just through being close with Xi, catapulted up.”
#WhereIsQinGang
#AspenSecurity
Huge news. I’m surprised there’s not much discussion. PBOC agrees Alipay has no controlling person
This only means the controlling person is CCP state.
1. There is no arguing “state sector advances, private sector retreats” is in full swing in China. In