Dean Christians, CMT @DeanChristians Twitter profile

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

One for the bears. For only the third time in history, the following happened. VIX up > 15% Gold up > 3% Crude Oil up > 5% Dates: 9/17/08 9/17/01 10/13/23

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 months

I'm surprised more people are not talking about the potential head and shoulders top forming in semiconductors:)

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

It's highly unusual to see the SPX correct this much and still have over 23% of its members abv their respective 50-day average. I can find only 2 instances since 1927—Tuesday, March 8th, and November 2000. Corrections and bear markets typically end when all stocks capitulate.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 months

On Friday, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 Index over a rolling 21-day period dropped to the lowest in history.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

The most interesting breadth thrust signal from last week that very few, if any, are discussing. What do the bond guys know?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

Remember, It's Different This Time

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

According to Bianco Research, "eight stocks are keeping the YTD gains in the S&P 500 positive, while the other 492 stocks are collectively down on the year." Here's a chart that provides a historical perspective on the performance trends of S&P 500 stocks versus the index.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

So far, the smart money remains uninterested in the almost 10% drawdown.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

A former money manager, George Chestnutt, once said, "The best forecaster of market action is the action of the market itself." With over 90% of S&P 1500 stocks in medium-term uptrends, Mr. Market suggests the outlook for the S&P 500 is favorable. Happy Holidays

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

Something you didn't see in the 2000-02 Dotcom bust.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

The Nasdaq 100 is undefeated a year later when the McClellan summation index surges above 1000 after a reset below 0. A new signal arrived this week.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

A trading system that uses the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index to assess whether financial conditions are easing or tightening triggered a new buy signal for the S&P 500.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 months

The last two times the S&P 500 dropped by 8% from a peak without a preceding or concurrent Financial Conditions sell signal were in January 2018 and September 2020. Both instances were swift corrections and marked short-term lows.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

. @fundstrat (Tom Lee) will love this one. This week, the S&P 1500, an index containing small, medium, and large-cap stocks, registered the most signficant expansion in 63-day highs since October 1982.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

The trend is not your friend until the 200-day moving average declines for 250 consecutive days.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

Stock market performance in September ranks as the worst month of the year. However, if the VIX fell below 14 in August, the S&P 500 was higher 89% of the time over the next month.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

If we count the number of days when fewer than 40% of S&P 500 members outperform the Index on a rolling 63-day basis, the indicator surpassed the longest streak in history on 9/13/21.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

We've seen a lot of chatter about risk-on indicators of late. The SentimenTrader Risk On/Off indicator combines 21 unique components into a weight-of-the-evidence approach to assess market conditions. It just triggered a buy signal.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

More than six months have passed since the financial conditions buy signal. Neither in 2000-02 nor in 2007-08 did the buy signals persist for more than four months.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

A rising 200-day moving average provides additional evidence to support a bullish big-picture backdrop.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 month

Whenever the percentage of S&P 500 Utility sector stocks trading within 5% of a 252-day high surpassed 95%, the extreme overbought condition was likely to mark the end of a favorable period for the utility sector. Yes. I know it's different this time because of AI:)

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

There's been lots of talk about the recent Zweig and Whaley thrust signals, which use NYSE data. Nasdaq Exchange advancing issues outpaced declining issues by a 3-to-1 ratio in three out of ten sessions. Three months later, the Nasdaq Composite has never been lower.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

5 months

The % of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index over a rolling 21-day period fell to 18%, the second-lowest point in history. In 1955, when this indicator recorded the lowest reading ever, General Motors accounted for 10% of the weighting in the S&P 500. #Concentration

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

More and more macroeconomic indicators are reversing to a bullish condition. After similar reversals, the S&P 500 was higher six months later in all but one case.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

Talk of an AI bubble seems premature for semiconductors.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

On Wednesday, a trading system that uses the Volatility Index (VXN) for the Nasdaq 100 Index triggered a new buy signal.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

Over 90% of S&P 500 members closed above their 50-day moving average last week. Context matters. The signal occurred after a > 20% drawdown.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

The poor Nasdaq breadth charts are making the rounds again this morning. Of course, none provide any statistics. Please retweet this chart.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

5 months

For only the 9th time since 1966, the percentage of S&P 500 equal-weighted sectors with a positive relative trend score versus the S&P 500 declined to 0%. Many believe that narrow leadership signals bearish outcomes, yet history contradicts this view.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

We studied bear markets to identify the sub-industry groups that consistently outperformed the S&P 500 during the drawdown phase. This week, the percentage of defensive sub-industry groups outperforming the S&P 500 on a rolling 252-day basis increased to 94%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

7 months

Financials haven't done this in more than 50 years! Remember, this group (the credit mechanism) is excellent at providing an early warning before economic contractions and bear markets. Food for thought: If Armageddon was imminent, would they be acting in a similar manner?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

5 months

For the first time in history, more than five NYSE issues declined for every one that advanced in 2 out of 4 sessions, with the S&P 500 less than 1.5% below a multi-year high.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

Add this one to the odd market breadth observation bucket for 2022. The following has never happened until now. # of SPX energy issues > 200-day > 80% # of SPX staples issues > 200-day > 80% # of SPX utility issues > 200-day > 80% # of SPX issues > 200-day < 50%

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

None of my composite risk-off models show enough evidence to suggest a significant drawdown is imminent. Could that change tomorrow? Absolutely. Ignore the noise and follow the signal.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 months

Food for thought if you're in the great rotation camp: In 1995-96, the semiconductor and semiconductor equipment industries declined by 38% and 68%, respectively, providing an example of a great rotation that occurred at neither a major peak nor a trough in the broad market.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

7 months

"The inside of the stock market is the best economist I know" - Stan Druckenmiller

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

For only the 23rd time since 1953, the percentage of oversold stocks within the energy sector exceeded 95%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

6 months

Nasdaq 100 breadth rebounds, signaling a more favorable market environment.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

Jamie Dimon may be on to something:) This week, the S&P 1500 Bank Industry Group closed at a new 54-year relative low versus the S&P 500.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

On Tuesday, the percentage of common stocks with a daily gain of 4% or more surged to 25%, reaching the highest level since the stock market low in the fall of 2022. Thanks to . @pradeepbonde at Stockbee for sharing this data series.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

Please don't share this financial conditions buy signal with the Federal Reserve. LOL

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

The number of S&P 500 sectors with greater than 50% of their stocks in a bear market increased to the highest level since the fall of 2022.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 months

Today, advancing issues on the NYSE outpaced declining issues by a ratio of 5 to 1, with the S&P 500 down -0.88%. That's never happened. Adjusting parameters to 2/1 and -0.75%, I get six precedents. 12/5/1929 8/18/1930 1/11/1932 8/20/1934 11/8/1934 4/19/2024

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 years

Jason highlighted the deterioration in the last hour indicator in a Twitter post on Wednesday. Please see the chart below for the trading system based on the indicator. . @sentimentrader

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

9 months

Remember when all the gurus on TV told you to exercise caution in November 2023 because the S&P 500 reached an overbought condition, according to the RSI? At the two-month mark, the S&P 500 yielded its most substantial return since July 2009.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

For only the 11th time since 1972, the percentage of global indexes in a bear market cycled from > 60% to 0%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

This put/call ratio trading model recently triggered a new buy signal for the S&P 500. Happy New Year!

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 years

A new NYSE Breadth Thrust buy signal occurred on 6/3/20. Please see table for record since 1932. We highlight two signals that look similar to the current one. A thrust from a 1 month consolidation after a low. @WalterDeemer @mark_ungewitter

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

It's not just the VIX that is falling to new lows. Except for crude oil, the volatility index for other asset classes has collapsed near the bottom end of their 1-year ranges.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

Did you know that the S&P 500 Technology sector has more stocks with a rising 200-day average than the S&P 500? 51.32% versus 43.91%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

18 days

Over 90% of S&P 500 Financial sector stocks closed within 5% of a 252-day high, a scenario that has resulted in a gain every time a year later for the sector and the S&P 500.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

FYI - We are not oversold!

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

The spread between high-yield bonds closing at a 52-week high versus a 52-week low as a percentage of issues exceeded 10%, a level associated with excellent annualized returns for the S&P 500. What do the bond guys know?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

The 52-week high-low spread indicator, tracking more than 9,000 securities on U.S. exchanges, recently generated a risk-on signal when its moving average entered positive territory.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

The disconnect between small and large-cap indexes is one of the most significant in history. For only the 6th time in 40 years, the distance from a 2-year high spread between the Russell 2000 and the S&P 500 widened to 15%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

Semiconductors acting like semiconductors should after a bear market bottom.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

The Long-Term Trend Model, one of seven components in the Tactical Composite Trend Model (TCTM), reversed from bearish to bullish for the 26th time since 1932.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 months

For only the 3rd time since 1957, the S&P 1500 Semiconductor sub-industry group closed more than 60% above its 200-day average. Prior instances provide food for thought depending on whether you're in the soft or hard landing camp.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

The S&P 500 Technology sector has more stocks above their 200-day average than any other sector. And the spread between Tech and the S&P 500 climbed to the highest level since June 2020.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

A breakout system triggered a new buy signal for the Dollar Index. After similar alerts, the DXY rallied 79% of the time over the next three months. The dollar becomes a problem for stocks once the 6-month ROC shows a gain of 10% or more.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

For only the 18th time since 1928, the percentage of sub-industry groups increasing more than 5% in a single session exceeded 60%.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

With a breadth composite for Financials triggering a new thrust signal last week, the probability of an imminent broad market peak looks less likely.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

The percentage of commodities trading above their 200-day moving average has fallen to the lowest level since the Covid crash.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

7 months

As of Monday, Cocoa had risen 125% above its 200-day moving average, ranking it as the seventh most profound deviation above the long-term average for any commodity since 1959.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

It's beginning to look a lot like Christmas or 2020. The percentage of stocks registering a 4% or greater daily gain surged above 18% for the second time in a month.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 months

Food for thought...

Kantro

@MichaelKantro

4 months

My 10% rule is up to 11.9%, the 3rd consecutive month above 10%. It's time to cut, Jerome. #macro #hopE

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

For only the 6th time in more than 30 years, the 1-year futures spread as a % of the 1st contract price declined below -60% and reversed higher, triggering a buy signal for natural gas.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

A hallmark of bullish market trends is the ability of indexes to remain above short-term moving averages for an extended duration. This week, several indexes and sectors generated moving average reversal signals, including the Nasdaq Composite.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

For only the second time since 1960, the equal-weighted S&P 500 energy sector shows a positive relative trend score versus the cap-weighted S&P 500, as all other sectors maintain a negative score. In case you were wondering, January 1973 was the other precedent.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

5 months

For the second time in a year, the percentage of S&P 500 stocks outperforming the S&P 500 index fell to 25%. Recent precedents have occurred within the context of a dominant sector theme. Recognizing how this influences market analysis is critical.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

After steadily rising for seven months to a 52-week high in April, continuing jobless claims have now fallen to a 16-week low, triggering a bullish signal for stocks.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

5 months

One more item for the expanding list of things you don't usually see in a healthy bull market. For only the 2nd time since 1928, the percentage of stocks in the S&P 500 registering a 63-day low exceeded 15%, with the index one day removed from a multi-year high.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

For only the 6th time since 1959, not a single S&P 500 equal-weighted sector is showing a positive relative trend score versus the S&P 500. Similar periods with narrow market leadership have not foreshadowed a doom-and-gloom scenario for the S&P 500 over a medium-term basis.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

According to my calculation, the S&P 500 has registered 1304 new all-time highs since 1928. We rank each new all-time high based on a composite breadth indicator that contains 9 components with data since 1928 to assess the internal condition of the mkt. Can you identify a trend?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 months

Commodities are starting to break down again. In every bull market since 1960, at least 85% of commodities have exceeded their 200-day averages. The absence of this scenario raises a caution flag regarding the uptrend that began in February 2024.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 month

The 20-day average spread between 52-week highs and lows on the NYSE has climbed to the highest level since May 2021, indicating that market breadth is improving. In light of this scenario, the 52-week high-low system is unlikely to signal a risk-off event anytime soon.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

Keep an eye on new lows. Significant bear market bottoms occur when new lows contract, not expand.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

At the close of trading on Monday, a model identifying cyclical industry participation registered a new buy signal for the first time since November 2020.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

I'm seeing a lot of chatter about an imminent rotation from growth to value. I have no clue whether it will happen, so I will let Mr. Market, the best forecaster of market action, do the talking.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

11 months

The 3-year range rank spread between gold miners and gold recently fell to -60%, a phenomenon observed in less than 1% of cases since 1969.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

Technology recorded a substantial uptick in bullish trend-following indicators. As a result, a composite model surged by one of the most significant week-over-week readings in history, triggering a new buy signal.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

This model identifies when the S&P 500 and the Volatility Index (VIX) are rising in unison. A new signal occurred last week.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

For only the 24th time since 1960, a semiconductor index surged by more than 5% and closed at a 12-month high, but not a 24-month high. After similar momentum breakouts, the index was higher a year later every time.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

The percentage of countries outperforming the S&P 500 index on a rolling 21-day basis has fallen to zero! When the world sneezes, does the U.S. catch a cold?

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

15 days

"To anticipate the market is to gamble. To be patient and react only when the market gives the signal is to speculate." Jesse Livermore

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 years

Be careful in thinking that the market moves higher after the election like it did in 2016. The difference in sentiment levels is noticeable.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

I recently created a new risk-off composite model to use as a secondary risk management tool alongside my TCTM Risk Warning Model. With a low signal count as a percentage of components, the path of least resistance for the market remains up.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

9 months

When Tesla's Relative Strength Index (RSI) crosses below 25, like now, the stock was higher 100% of the time over the subsequent two weeks.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

For 63 consecutive sessions, the S&P 500 Technology sector avoided closing at a 10-day low, establishing the longest win streak since the post-COVID melt-up and ranking as the 10th most significant count in over 70 years.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

5 months

Another rare reversal occurred on Friday. I could find only three other instances since 1957. 5/19/1993 6/7/1996 12/18/2013 1996 is an interesting analog as you had a lot of sector rotation under the surface, similar to now. Start of irrational exuberance per Greenspan:)

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

1 year

A good overbought condition!

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

The SentimenTrader Macro Index Model, a measure of economic activity, declined by 27% in May. That's the 2nd most significant contraction in history.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

Food prices have been surging of late. The last time they were this high on a y/y basis in 2011, emerging market stocks struggled.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

The percentage of Consumer Discretionary stocks in a bear market cycled from > 89% to < 50%, triggering only the 10th buy signal in more than 70 years on January 10th.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

2 years

US financial conditions remain in a risk-off status.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

7 months

Uh oh, it looks like we're back to one of those types of markets. LOL

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

4 years

The percentage of S&P 500 members trading above their respective 50-day moving average registered an overbought momentum buy signal on the close of trading on 4/8/21. The table below contains all signals that occurred at a 252-day.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

The Bloomberg Commodity Index needs two more 252-day highs to surpass the previous rolling high count set in 1973 and 1980.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

9 months

Food for thought if AI is a bubble and semiconductors are the poster child: The current price momentum falls far short of the extremes witnessed during the Dotcom era. Remember, nobody knows anything until after the fact.

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Dean Christians, CMT

@DeanChristians

3 years

The percentage of sub-industry groups outperforming the S&P 500 has never been this low when the index is less than 3% from its most recent high. Are we going to party like it's 1999?

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