522 days ago, i pinned this tweet after the $QQQ made "a top"... it turned out to be "the top". but today, we closed above those highs as even the buy and holder was made whole, finally. i'll find something else to pin soon...
you can call it whatever you want to call it, but I call yesterday "a top" in $QQQ - now we just need to know if that top will be exceeded this week, next week, next month, or?? the RSI(5) bearish divergence was very visible into yesterday...
there are 45 stocks in the S&P 500 $SPX that are +30%+ YTD and crushing the index... here are the charts... study them. learn from them. demand > supply raises prices. rising stock prices = rising portfolio values.
$QQQ Nasdaq 100 bullish MONTHLY candlestick for July...
only the 4th time in 13 years...
March, 2009
October, 2011
April, 2020
and now, July, 2022
the other 3 were very important... I know, you want to think that maybe this one is different...
seems crazy to see $SPX +0.3% in May while there were SEVEN sectors down more than -4%!!
financials -4.3%
health care - 4.3%
real estate -4.5%
utilities -5.9%
staples - 6.2%
materials -6.9%
energy -10%
as i've pointed out before, it's been a far more probabilistic event to get bearish $SPX (and stocks) when my long ATR model turns up and i plot a vertical line... no such situation today...
technology stocks just SURGED against $SPX - the straight up move led me to look more closely...
we just had the BIGGEST 10-day relative move at +7.1% since March 10, 2009. and, no, if you're wondering if stocks peaked on March 10, 2009, they didn't. they bottomed. big time.
i know the bears will be upset with me for pointing this out, but, there are 173 large-cap stocks +30%+ YTD... so no, it's not just the biggest 5, or 6, or 7...
there's 88 large-caps +50%+ YTD....
Nasdaq $QQQ
second biggest 21-day rally in 15 years = +17.9%
only the 4th surge like that in two decades... prior instances marked by green circles & all occurred after significant bear markets...
buying stocks when volatility falls is typically a wise-type idea in hindsight... vertical lines show my ATR model rolling over and you can see what has happened afterwards... $SPX
you can call it whatever you want to call it, but I call yesterday "a top" in $QQQ - now we just need to know if that top will be exceeded this week, next week, next month, or?? the RSI(5) bearish divergence was very visible into yesterday...
i learned today on my way to work that you can take the $VIX and divide by 16 to get the approximate % move expected for stocks... (very cool!) - h/t
@AdaptivCharts
@the_chart_life
in the the last 20-years, only three times has the Nasdaq 100 had a 21-day rally > 20% (marked by vertical lines)... they all occurred after bear markets... and the last two were part of a trend change... this one too?
perhaps it seems almost childish to have a
#process
that is updated old-school manual, but there is so much to be learned by following a routine. here's the other part of my daily routine - again, consistent message today
$SPX 200-day moving average flashes a rare signal that has only happened 20 times in the past 90 years... stocks were higher 12 months later 100% of the time with an average return of +18% h/t Luke Lango
here's the 21 large-cap stocks that have produced more than a double this year and are +100%+... study these charts... analyze their behaviour. we all need to keep learning.
i admit that it's far from all the perspective i use in generating investment decision making, but the utter simplicity of, in this case, a 20/50-day crossover to keep an investor on the right side of the market seems a tool worthy of consideration, no? $QQQ
i haven't shared this in a while but given market conditions, here are some of the things i'm looking for and thinking of... (not expecting to ever really check all boxes)
my volatility $VIX vs. S&P 500 $SPX model surges "into the zone" setting up the next buy signal for equities (but we need to see that 1/10 oscillator settle)...
this is still my favourite chart to show clients this week…
i cover up the right side first and point out the massive U.S. housing bubble in ‘06-08, then I reveal the right side as we laugh nervously together and I tell them I don’t even know what to call that…
#realestate
those trying to express a bearish view on the stock market are certainly not going to want these Russell 2000 small-caps to break out in the coming days...
i just reached 10,000 followers!
i'd like to take a moment to say THANKS
!
I appreciate those of you that follow my work, those that comment and ask questions and those that just try to soak in what they can...
i really enjoy sharing charts and perspective and hope you can
that's the first weekly bearish engulfing for the $QQQ in five months (since March 6th)... and the first one after an uptrend since November 22, 2021 (that one had the bearish divergence too)...
the monthly Bitcoin
#BTC
$BTCUSD chart makes all claims, suggestions or conclusions that it has plummeted, or crashed look nonsensical and quite frankly inaccurate...
there are so many that seem to continue suggesting that small-caps underperforming means the market is in trouble. why? why do you think that? small-caps $IWM have been trending downwards against large-caps $SPX for 10 years... i repeat, 10 years.
believe it or not, but even though we are below the 200D moving average, we are higher than we were 200 days ago, so the moving average slope is positive today! I had to squint and then check but sure enough... $SPX has a rising 50 and 200D now
years ago, in corrections, I used to focus on wanting to buy the stocks that got crushed the most... fast forward to today, I'd rather buy the leaders that pull back in the tightest way showing that buying demand is overwhelming supply... results? way better.
the Nasdaq 100 $QQQ just crossed 13/34-week EMA
#bullish
on Friday for the first time since 2019... along with the slope of the 65-week EMA (also positive), we gauge and label the "long-term trend"...
bearish engulfing in progress alert on Nvidia $NVDA
very similar to March 8th and occurring after a BIG rally, extending the even BIGGER rally that has taken place...
it's not every day or week that we have
#beardivergence
on both $SPX weekly and daily... after strong rallies, i certainly want to sit up straighter in my chair...
the 21-day rate of change on the $QQQ is -14.6% a level reached for only the third time in the past decade. sure, it could get weaker.
but it's easier to be pessimistic after weakness, and harder to be optimistic, but we need to remain objective...
short term stock ALERT: a friend who bailed out of his stock portfolio in early April because he "knew" it was going to crash MUCH further than the March lows just capitulated back in today
#FOMOAlert
$SPX
i have to say that spending a few days in a quiet and pristine wilderness, without cell service/data/technology is so refreshing...
woke naturally just before sunrise, went to bed at sunset and read a few books... awesome!
we camped 3 lakes in on an island and quiet it was!
there are lots of folks, technicians and non, all talking about declining breadth... yes, for sure, fewer stocks are rising as the markets $SPX $QQQ hit highs... i remind you that in '21, it was even more pronounced...
left: current % 50-day
#beardivergence
right: 2021
i have to admit that it just doesn't "look" like a big top that just got made, to me. the move since the July highs on the $QQQ weekly chart looks rather orderly...
the next time your neigbour tries to bring up lumber prices, just laugh and tell him that lumber prices are not higher than they were 12 years ago... sitting at December, 2012 levels right now...
perhaps you wish it weren't so, but as i flip through hundreds of weekly charts, i'll tell you there are MANY very good-looking opportunities staring at us...
you don't need any fancy indicators to look at the weekly S&P 500 $SPX chart and know it's an uptrend...
the headlines are going to give you all the reasons it's about to come crashing down, but the price action (even last week), doesn't look out of context to me...
S&P 500 $SPX weekly
finished RSI(5) oversold...
seems like 4,800'ish would sit as breakout support and represent another -3.3% downside or so, bigger picture...
i'm going to repeat what I' ve been saying for a while now... this market looks bullish to me and this pullback does not seem concerning... much more evidence and discussion in the
#WhereDoWeStand
webinar today - just recorded it - it will be out later! watch for it!
the $QQQ has continued to be in an intermediate-term correction (despite the index in an uptrend at highs) with the average stock -14.8% from highs...
% stocks > 50-day / % stocks > 200-day allows us to see intermediate-term weakness against long-term trend...