🧵 There are too many armchair experts, who do not know a thing about Georgia but are arrogant and condescending enough to lecture us that Ivanishvili regime has nothing to do with Russia. Would you give us a break from your nonsense ? /1
This is excellent, comprehensive coverage of Georgian society’s ongoing battle. The kind of coverage that is regrettably still missing beyond Europe, most notably in the US media.
Crowds of protesters have gathered again in Georgia's capital, after police broke up demonstrations outside the parliament building.
@paraicobrien
is in Tbilisi.
🧵Georgia and Belarus: Anticipated Mass Repression and the Limits of Comparative Autocratization.
The trajectory of Georgian Dream Regime in GE has recently taken drastic turns. Facing spontaneous, youth-dominated mass protest mobilization /1
The minimal price of freedom under Russia’s puppet authoritarian regime is tear gas, pepper spray and water cannons. The regime rises the stakes daily.
P.S. Filtered tear gas smells terrible too.
When I say that unleashing of mass scale violent repression is imminent by the Georgian regime, I mean this. It has already become systematic and widespread.
Next time you make bold assertions about Ivanishvili regime and his supposed autonomy from the Kremlin, do your homework better and study the evidence that amply contradict your conclusions. /END
#Tbilisiprotests
This is huge spontaneous mobilization. Metekhi bridge and squares on its both embankments is packed. All streets leading to it are full. The people have formed a sovereign body and took public spaces. The only legitimate power in Georgia stands here.
This is the true movement, from the deep roots of
#Georgian
society. This movement stands for Georgia’s European identity and sovereign selfhood. Neither puppet regime nor its
#Russian
imperial masters can beat the movement.
Do you know a thing about Georgian politics? Its constitutional system and political regime? And their interplay? Have you studied Ivanishvili regime, his playbook, the trajectory of state capture and social cooptation? /2
Do you know that RU’s, Belarus’ and Ivanishvili’s intelligence and internal security officials are having joint trainings, including in GE? Do you know that GE state security service even formalized its ties with Belarusian counterpart ? /6
Do you have a slightest idea what are the networks that make up Ivanishvili’s power in Georgia ? Have you studied the deep ties of these networks to Putin regime? Do you know who is Otar Phartshkaladze and why is he sanctioned by the US? /3
🧵 The Ivanishvili regime MP has disclosed President’s veto message. There is a procedural restriction on veto power by the Parliament’s rules of procedure. The presidential veto should be presented in a form of an alternative bill. /1
Do you know about the close cooperation of Ivanishvili’s political police with Russian special services? Have you read investigative report establishing that the son of GRU s foreign sabotage chief had free pass in GE to conduct operations against foreign diplomats ? /5
Do you know what Phartskahaladze does for Ivanishvili in GE and in RU? Do you know RU oligarch Yevtushenkov and Ivanishvili’s ties with him? Do you know how many of Yevtushenkov’s associates have directly interfered in GE through RU hybrid operations benefiting Ivanishvili? /4
🧵 Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili’s address showed clarity on the nature and ends of the regime unusual for her previous record. She stated that throughout the veto procedure she will not help the regime in cosmetic manipulations to save the regime’s face. /1
🧵 As expected, considering its overall trajectory, the Ivanishvili regime responded to the first package of the US sanctions with more escalation and insult. The regime remains undeterred, and it will undoubtedly override the presidential veto, /1
🧵Bidzina Ivanishvili has delivered comprehensive anti-western political manifesto. His regime now clearly identifies the West as an external enemy and GE civil society as enemy within, whom he promises to conclusively repress after 2024 elections. /1
Ivanishvili regime is reassuring its elites on US sanctions, betting on the Trump win in November. Disregarding the fact that sanctions legislation against them is sponsored also by the Trump loyalists in Congress. I suppose this is just a bait for the regime’s lower elites.
The comparison with Belarus becomes appropriate for several reasons. Firstly, it is Ivanishvili’s and Lukashenka’s choice to cling to power by means of mass violent repression. And more importantly, their shared external patron power- Kremlin regime of Vladimir Putin. /3
Venice Commission delivered a definitive blow. Not only did it reduce Ivanishvili regime’s abusive, half baked “arguments” to dust, but also issued a damning indictment of the regime’s manifest betrayal of the Rule of Law and ALL other values of Const. democracy.
Long 🧵
Venice Commission's opinion on Georgia's Foreign Agents' Bill and its domestic and European constitutional implications for Georgia.
The opinion is a comprehensive rebuttal of the bill and all thinly veiled abusive justifications asserted by the GE regime. /1
the regime, headed by the Russian oligarch Bidzina Ivanishvili is tightening the screws and intensifying violent repression. Regime’s updated playbook and clarified trajectory towards a closed authoritarian regime, invites parallels with the similar regimes. /2
However, it remains a possibility that protest mobilization and resolve reaches the magnitude that Ivanishvili’s security forces get overwhelmed and the extent of RU assistance is not sufficient to compensate it. /END
/1. On Georgia’s Independence Day, my mood is far from festive. Our sovereignty is captured by a hostile force- Russian imperialism, through its occupying army and puppet authoritarian regime. The regime is hurriedly completing the tasks set by its imperial masters-
This makes internal funding unavailable for civil causes, but external funding has remained open until now, providing lifeline to GE civil society. That’s why the regime targets it now through foreign agent legislation. /8
This is a high class legal trolling from the President, of the regime which functions through cheating on rule of law and autocratic legalism. The regime seems offended. It now has two paths of retreat and one path of escalation. No middle way, no strategic ambiguity. /3
In contrast, Georgia has been illiberal democracy: civil society, media and opposition had experienced targeted repression and harassment, however they remained institutionalized and relatively organized. /6
Dear policymakers in Washington DC. Good occasion to take note that you are dealing with a deeply deranged man, believing in lunatic conspiracies and like his patron, Russia, acting thuggishly to extort what he considers his “own”, which actually is not his at all.
Georgian PM Irakli Kobakhidze said today Georgian Dream honorary chair Bidzina Ivanishvili has refused to meet with foreign diplomats, because "under blackmail, he cannot hold any meeting." He specifically claimed the fact that Mr Ivanishvili’s two billion USD have been seized by
🧵I get that many leftists and left leaning academics globally are suspicious about the democracy promotion paradigm, see NGO’s as part of it and hold more doubts regarding their role. However, if these commitments make them ignore facts about authoritarian regime, /1
Let’s start with the caveats: a) Under Lukashenka Belarus has been subject to authoritarian rule for three decades. Civil society organizations and opposition were systemically repressed. Many of them faced legal obstacles to operate, were dissolved or otherwise made illegal. /5
b) Belarus’s economy is state dominated, making internal sources of civil society funding unavailable and external funding is also cut off. In Georgia, the economy is nominally market based, but in reality, it is cartelized by the regime. /7
d) Compared to Belarusian army, GE army has been trained for NATO led military operations and to the available knowledge is NOT trained for internal protest suppression tasks, making its classic authoritarian use for mass protest suppression less likely. /12
To satisfy this procedural requirement and at the same time stick to her position that the law should be immediately repealed, the President’s alternative bill added a self-destruction timer: the law should expire after one day upon entering force. /2
🧵President Zourabichvili gave the regime simple choice: not overturning her veto by voting down the original version of the bill adopted by three readings. She refused to take part in regime’s autocratic legal chicanery. However, I do not expect regime’s tactical retreat. /1
Imposing visa restrictions on the members of Ivanishvili’s regime. More to be followed. This is the right policy and it should be consistently expanded to strangle the regime.
Important to understand:
1. GE regime willfully pursues isolationism from the West.
2. The regime will not respond to Western soft power. It does not care anymore.
3. Hard measures, like sanctions are undesirable for the regime, but won’t be deterred only by them.
"Several countries, mainly the Baltic states, Germany as well as Poland, the Czech Republic, if I'm not mistaken, the chairmen of the Foreign Relations Committees expressed their desire to visit, and among them, there was a desire to meet with me. I told them that it was not a
It is up to the regime which path it takes. My guess is the escalation, the override and post entry into force attempts to sell the autocratic legalist facade building in exchange of sanction avoidance. This should be resisted and prevented. /END
However, as elsewhere in comparative analysis, contextual caveats make broad generalizations less convincing. There are such contextual considerations in Georgia-Belarus comparison too. However, there still remain good reasons to retain Belarus as a useful comparator. /4
Lukashenka, in contrast, has used army units in protest crackdown.
Now let’s get back to the common ground. Ivanishvili has been modeling his political police and security services to those of Belarus and Russia. /13
c) Another caveat comes from the absence of violent mass repression in Georgia until recently. Lukashenka’s use of repression usually went beyond the targeted and calculated repression paradigm. /10
As a result, by the time of 2020 crackdown, Belarus’ society had already undergone massive authoritarian engineering efforts, had been considerably atomized and demobilized. This is not yet the case in GE. /11
His police and internal security services are well trained, well paid and extremely loyal to the regime and the leader. They know they are shielded from all responsibilty while regime is in place /14
and the more criminal acts they commit in repressing citizenry, the higher are their personal stakes in regime collapse. Classic authoritarian model of ensuring the loyal security agencies. /15
The West should consider that like in Belarus, Georgian civil society faces imminent violent crackdown. Many will go to prison for lengthy terms, others will be victims of enforced disappearances and assassination by the regime squads. The rest will be exiled. /END
If the regime votes for the president’s alternative bill, the Russian law will expire in a day. The regime could also retreat by voting down the original bill after voting down the president’s bill. Or it can escalate and vote for the original version of the bill. /4
Ivanishvili’s internal security machine is also coup proof. The repressive apparatus is split into Ministry of Internal Affairs and State Security Service agencies and outsourced to private security firms and various thugs for hire groups. /16
However, the shock of mass scale violent repression, including mass torture, imprisonment and use of lethal force could help the GE regime to subdue and manage the protest mobilization and achieve its autocratization objectives. /22
Loyal security forces, ready to follow any order from the leader and help from greater autocratic power- RU could be decisive factors here. In this scenario, Belarusian model will be successfully transplanted in GE. /23
but it still could help the GE puppet regime with spetsnaz units and sabotage groups. To sum up. Georgian civil society has more infrastructural power than Belarusians had for mobilization. /21
None of them enjoys primacy and they compete for power and spoils, which makes them easier for Ivanishvili to control. Well disciplined, loyal, coup and defection proof security agencies, are huge asset for enforcing successful mass scale violent repression. /17
Ivanishvili’s security personnel will do the same. They have never betrayed the leader before and have less personal motives to do so in the future. And last but not least. Strong backing by external patron-Russia. /19
In this respect Ivanishvili’s and Lukashenka’s security forces are very much alike. When Lukashenka’s security official ordered his men to shoot protesters in face and use lethal force, at the command of the leader, they complied unconditionally. /18
1/ Bidzina Ivanishvili's speech today once again reiterated in the clearest terms that he believes in Russia's victory. He estimates that Russian victory will take a year at most. He believes that Trump's victory will accelerate this process and Russians may win already
For RU trolls who demand judicially ascertainable evidence. That will follow too once the regime is out but for now the circumstantial evidence overwhelmingly supports the point here. That’s why your owners are angry. And make you spill digital blood.
It is expected that Russia will provide robust support in enforcing violent mass crackdown to Ivanishvili, like it did to Lukashenka. Due to its war of aggression in Ukraine, RU might be lacking army troops for Georgia intervention, /20
Regime’s special forces are ready. My fear is that
#Russian
GRU foreign sabotage group fighters will bolster the
#Georgian
puppet regime forces if they get overwhelmed.
Sanctions should target the regime's repression apparatus and repressive capabilities, degrade and undermine them. Unless the regime's collapse is triggered due to defection and exhaustion, the repression will succeed. /END
Georgian mass protest movement still has to secure a single win against the regime on its terms. Next week is the key period. Whether the regime bulldozes his way through the protest of this magnitude or gets obstructed will have consequences.
Nothing unexpected. His regime has been traveling this path from the start. Only those who were blinded by either wishful thinking or complicity could not see. And here we come. Ivanishvili’s Yanukovich moment arrived at last and he made the turn. /2
This requires immediate policy change towards Georgia from the West. The working assumption should be that they are not dealing with even someone like Vucic, but more like Lukashenka. Worse even, Lukashenka has more autonomy from the Kremlin than Ivanishvili does. /3
This is the same language of appeasement that brought us here. The regime has no “legitimate” concerns. It only has sinister interests of personalist dictator. It has no legitimacy. It is an illegitimate instrument of the Kremlin undermining Georgian people.
Discussed the current situation in Georgia today with 🇬🇪 President
@Zourabichvili_S
over the phone, followed by a call with 🇬🇪PM
@PM_Kobakhidze
.
Reiterated my full support in continuing to help Georgians to work towards a European future, including by helping to find the best
The President also clearly stated that the problem lies in the Russian nature of the regime itself, and the Russian laws are only manifestations of this. In the past, I have been consistently critical of the President for helping the regime in maintaining strategic ambiguity. /4
Enlargement commission Varhelyi: “I regret that one part of my phone call was not just fully taken out of context but was also presented to the public in a way which could give rise to a complete misinterpretation of the originally intended aim of my phone call.” 🇬🇪
Western policy should quickly assume the full features of what is now presented in Congress. Georgia's society will need this support to resist violent repression. /5
Regime in Tbilisi has effectively terminated strategic partnership with the US. For dummies here, let’s ask, which regional state power benefits from this most?
#US
Ambassador Robin
#Dunnigan
says in her statement that senior members of
#Georgian
Government refused to engage directly "with most senior leaders in US" to discuss strategic partnership and any concerns with U.S. assistance
And yes, for policy making circumstantial evidence is sufficient. I’m not making a case for Ivanishvili ‘s legal responsibility for treason, not yet and not here- beyond the reasonable doubt evidence is needed only for this. You can’t blur the lines, even with propaganda skill.
Visa restrictions on Ivanishvili regime should be promptly extended and augmented by financial sanctions. The regime’s patrons have already made preparations for sanction-proofing. The full force of sanctions should come before sanction-proofing and regime closure are complete.
These kids are not Hamas. Hamas may use them as shields, but they have no choice over it, they don’t have means to resist. Their lives should be saved.
Russia's objective, then, is to complete Georgia's Belarusization project. Ivanishvili will have full-fledged Russian support in this undertaking, which will require a hitherto unseen scale of violent repression. /4
Ivanishvili regime MP, linking “global party of war” conspiracy to freemasonry. Dumb, unimaginative, thoughtless, like her patron. Even reddit threads are more sophisticated than these.
"Freemasons have an influence on politics, on everything..." 🕵️
In Tbilisi
@lewis_goodall
spoke to an MP from the governing Georgian Dream party. Its leader, the Prime Minister, blames the country's ills on 'the global war party' - a mysterious, multinational organisation. 🇬🇪
In retrospect, it becomes evident that this is the outcome the Ivanishvili regime and its foreign patrons—Russia and China—have always sought.
The isolated Ivanishvili regime will become a vassal entity between Russia and China. /3
enacting the Russian foreign agents' law.
With the US Congress adopting Georgia sanctions legislation and the EU implementing its first response in the form of sanctions, the Ivanishvili regime's complete and irreversible estrangement from the West is imminent. /2
Ivanishvili needs this deceptive face saving to once again create strategic ambiguity and avoid/delay Western sanctions. To finalize his declared goals of authoritarian consolidation and Georgia’s isolation from the West uninterrupted. /2
#Alert
#Scholaratrisk
A thread.
I’m a constitutional scholar and commentator on public affairs from
#Georgia
. I have become the target of coordinated personal attacks and smear campaign by the
#Georgianregime
. Digital privacy of my family and me was infringed.
1/10
Ivanishvili's regime in Georgia has signed Russian foreign agents’ legislation into law. At this point, only a successful civil disobedience campaign defying the Russian law, backed by mass protests, could undermine the regime and lead to its eventual collapse.
No illiberal or autocratic actor in Europe has ever been this cheap to European institutions. Even Putin followed some diplomatic conventions.
His minions in Tbilisi are unleashed and unstoppable.
Kobakhidze is like a chimp throwing around feces joyfully.
PM Kobakhidze brushed aside the
@VeniceComm
's damning conclusion regarding the foreign agent's law, saying it contains "completely absurd legal judgment without any argumentation." He argued that today, "our country is sovereign as never before" and can see the truth.
@k_sonin
@vkaramurza
@Billbrowder
Podoprigorov is still on the treasury sanctions list. He petitioned in 2018 through the said law firm. Not successfully it appears.
UPDATE: The editor of our member center
@studiomonitori
woke up Friday to find her car covered with insulting phrases including "agent sold for money."
Journalists & activists in Georgia are under threat amid protests over a proposed foreign agent law.
In this opinion piece, I trace the Russian origins, trajectory and destination of the Georgian Dream regime.
Georgian Dream was built on a known lie and once it expired, the regime took a predictable turn towards full authoritarianism, just like in Russia.
#OpEd
The violent crackdown against protests against the “Russian law” is the latest manifestation of Georgian Dream’s authoritarian project.
@DZedelashvili
explains how the party tightened its grip over Georgia.
Narratives that the Georgian Dream’s pivot toward Russia is not what it appears to be emerging every other day. Presenting Ivanishvili and his regime as largely autonomous actors who align themselves with Russia for pragmatic reasons of survival and driven by the perception /1
If you want to get updates of the latest developments on the ground, follow my wife. She’s been out from the field for a while and reclaimed the profession of a reporter for the occasion of these historic events.
Western actors shall not allow the regime to fool them. They should not accept any compromise from the regime that is other than complete repeal of the Russian foreign agents law. /END
🧵 The Venice Commission’s urgent opinion on the Georgian foreign agents’ legislation to be published next week. Hopefully, it will be as clear and as categorical as in similar opinions, demanding that the law’s complete withdrawal is the ONLY option /1
which is sponsored by imperialist power like RU and an ongoing authoritarian crackdown and consolidation, I doubt the bona fide nature of their stances. Denial of RU imperialism where it is manifest, simply because that does not fit your picture of Western imperialism’s evils /2
is dishonest and morally wrong. It seems they are not against imperialism as such, but only against the specific powers of their dislike, as they conveniently ignore the evils of their preferred imperialist power. /3
As I said on BBC, the Rule of Law is a thing that this regime hates most. Now with its rapid descent to autocracy, the regime switches from the abuse of ROL to its manifest violation.
As expected, it makes the Russian foreign agents’ law more repressive day by day.
It came to light that the final version of the
#ForeignAgentsLaw
now fines individuals for not disclosing data on suspected agents under "foreign influence," while the initial draft only penalized organizations
@derspiegel
‘s extensive piece on the repression of civil society in GE. With my comments on the return of Stalinist technique’s in GE regime’s repressive menu.
@RepKinzinger
While we fight for our freedom, sir, US needs to take sovereign action to defend its values and interests, and help us by doing its job.
#SanctionBidzinaIvanishvili
This is the only effective and timely action for now.
He also knows very well that these are not state agencies in any meaningful sense but coercive organizations enforcing the personalist rule of one men, who rules for the totalitarian Empire from the north.
People receive calls of threats on deliberately pre-selected numbers, specific time & specific geolocation. I know this cannot happen without operative support of State Security Service, Police
@MIAofGeorgia
, Prosecutor’s Office
@OfficialPOG
, Special State Protection Service. I
US House of Representatives diagnoses GE events correctly- Rapid Belarusization.
Sanctions package similar to Belarus sanctions is placed on the table.
🧵Ivanishvili's Regime in Georgia bulldozes its way to adopt the foreign agents' legislation by the third reading. What's next for the regime, Georgians, and the Western states/institutions? /1
The Russian foreign agents law will go in force. However, to avoid/soften/delay sanctions, the regime will try to lure Western states and institutions with measures of autocratic legalism promising some nicer facade building. /2
On invitation from
@CivilGe
I have reworked my thread on Georgia and Belarus into an article. Adding more flesh to the original arguments and reflecting on your constructive comments.
What was once unimaginable is now a chilling possibility. Read Davit Zedelashvili's thought-provoking analysis on the alarming trajectory of the Georgian gov't and the unsettling parallels with
#Belarus
.
@DZedelashvili
#Georgia
#Authoritarianism