DoubleLine Minutes @DLineMinutes Twitter profile

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DoubleLine Minutes

5 days

. @DLineCap Portfolio Managers Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau cover an Aug. 19-23 week that registered gains for stocks, a broad rally in fixed income and higher commodities prices in expectation of fed funds cuts. #rates #Powell #bonds #inflation #jobs

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Prices Index increased to 53.2, indicating manufacturers are seeing higher input prices compared to last month. #ISM #PMI #manufacturing #prices #inflation #growth

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139

DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

US industrial production advanced more than expectations in September, +0.4%MoM vs. 0.1% consensus and -0.1% the previous month. Industrial Production increased 5.3% YoY. Manufacturing sector output increased for the third straight month, +0.4%MoM and 5.9% annualized in Q3.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

9 months

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.8%MoM in October vs. -0.7% consensus and -0.7% the previous month. The 12-month change improved to -7.6%. The 6-month annualized change ticked up to -6.4% from -6.5% the previous month. Consumer expectations, ISM new

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

8 months

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.5%MoM in November vs. -0.5% consensus and -1.0% the previous month. The 12-month change improved to -7.6%. The 6-month annualized change ticked up to -6.8% from -7.1% the previous month. Consumer expectations, ISM new

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

5 months

Prices Index increased to 55.8, the highest since July 2022, indicating manufacturers are seeing higher input prices suggesting stubborn inflationary pressures.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

. @DLineCap 's Jeff Mayberry on Copper-Gold ratio: "If the Copper-Gold ratio is correct, a recession is coming and the 10-year yield should continue to fall." For more on this useful indicator, read Mayberry's paper "The Power of Copper-Gold."

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The Fed will have the latest CPI and PPI inflation data in hand for its meeting that concludes tomorrow when policy makers are widely expected to increase interest rates for the first time since 2018. #geopolitics #rates #FOMC #inflation #hikes #growth #stocks #bonds

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

7 months

NAHB Housing market index improved in February to 48 from 44 the previous month. “And while mortgage rates still remain too high for many prospective buyers, we anticipate that due to pent-up demand, many more buyers will enter the marketplace if mortgage rates continue to

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined more than expected in December -1.0%MoM (v. -0.7% expected) and the previous month was revised lower to -1.1% from -1.0%. The YoY decline of -7.4% is a level only seen during recessions, looking at data going back to 1960.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

With its yield down to 4.2%, the two-year Treasury, Samuel Lau thinks, seems to be “pointing towards the end of the Fed rate-hiking cycle.” Listen: #rates #Powell #Fed #FOMC #pause #pivot #stocks #bonds #recession

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

. @Conferenceboard Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.4%MoM in July, the previous month was revised to -0.7% (from -0.8%). On a year-over-year basis, LEI dropped to 0%, which typically occurs 3-12 months prior to entering recessions.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

11 months

MMM’s Jeff & Sam look at what the de-inverting of the 2s10s and 3s10s could mean for potential recession timelines. End of the year? Next June? Buckle up, indeed! 👂

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Pending home sales surged higher in January, +8.1%MoM vs. +1.0% consensus and 1.1% previous month (revised down from 2.5%). This was the largest monthly increase since June 2020. The report noted buyer activity improved on better affordability from lower mortgage rates in

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

10 months

Wages: Average Hourly Earnings +0.21% MoM vs. +0.3% consensus, 4.1%YoY vs. 4.0% consensus. Average hourly earnings for production & nonsupervisory workers +0.34%MoM and 4.4% YoY. For comparison, the median wage growth tracker from the monthly Atlanta Fed is at 5.2%YoY (as of

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

10 months

Another recessionary signal, @ShermanShowPod cohost Samuel Lau says, is U-3 running above its 12-month moving average. U-3 is also nearing its 36-month MA, now at 4.4%. Crosses above that level have always preceded, or coincided with, recessions. 👂

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Among the most reliable leading recession indicators are inversions of five days or longer of the two-year Treasury yield to the 10-year yield. This spread, closely watched by traders, inverted on July 5 and has remained so since then. Listen here:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

It appears rising mortgage rates are starting to crimp demand for homes. Pending home sales unexpectedly declined in February -4.1%MoM vs. +1.0% consensus and -5.8% last month. #rates #inflation #housing #inventory #supply #availability #affordability #homeprices

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Jeff Mayberry and Samuel Lau put the 9.4% year-to-date drawdown of the Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index in historical context and share their tools for forecasting probable moves and levels of the Federal Funds rate. Listen now: #macro #bonds #inflation

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Yield curve: “The 3-month/10-year spread has now inverted at -9 basis points,” says Sam Lau. As of Oct. 28, that spread had been inverted for 3 days. A string of at least 5 days of inversion is needed for a credible recessionary signal. Listen here:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

U.S. homebuilder sentiment increased the most since mid-2020, rising 7 points to 42 in February, a 5-month high. #housing #rates #mortgages

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

ISM Manufacturing PMI increased more than expected in April to 47.1 vs. 46.8 consensus and 46.3 last month. U.S. Manufacturing remains in contraction for a 6th consecutive month as demand continues to soften. #prices #labor #inflation #jobs #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

10 months

Echoing @DLineCap CEO Jeffrey Gundlach, Eric Dhall says now might well be a good time for investors in the market-cap-weighted S&P 500 to consider diversifying into the equal-weighted S&P 500 and away from the Magnificent 7 stocks. 👂

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Supplier Deliveries Index declined to 44.6; a level associated with weak demand and the lowest level since the GFC. #inflation #demand #rates #supplychain #goods #services

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.3%MoM in January vs. -0.8% previous month. Year-over-year LEI declined -5.9%, stable vs. the previous month. #stocks #wages #rates #ISM #expectations #jobs #credit

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

8 months

In the wake of a de-inverting Treasury yield curve, @DLineCap Portfolio Manager Samuel Lau points out that the past 6 recessions started, on average, two months after previously inverted yield curves steepened into positive territory. Listen here:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

New home sales cratered in April, down 16.6% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 591k. New home sales down 26.9% from the a year ago. #housing #inflation #demand #supply #inventory #prices #rent #affordability #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Conference Board Leading Index declined more than expected in March, -1.2%MoM vs. -0.7% consensus and -0.5% last month. Year-over-year, the leading index declined 7.8%, a level only experienced when the US economy is in recession. #stocks #bonds #rates #macro

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

The JOLTS data came in stronger than expected in January, with job openings dropping less than expectations and the December print was revised higher. Job openings 10.8m vs. 10.5m consensus and 11.2m the previous month (revised up from 11.0m). The number of vacancies per

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

With 30-year mortgage rates averaging 7.34%, Mark Kimbrough notes “as rates rise, it still doesn’t appear that it’s significantly holding back on home price appreciation.” Listen: #housing #mortgages #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

3 years

Customers’ inventories increased to 31.7 from 30.2 last month. “Customers’ inventories are too low for the 60th consecutive month, a positive for future production growth. For 14 straight months, the Customers’ Inventories Index has been at historically low levels,” says ISM.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

8 months

Household Survey: The household survey (which is a broader measure of employment => includes agriculture and self-employed) indicated total employment decreased 683k in December. This was the largest monthly decline since April 2020. The 3-month average is at -122k per month.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Headline CPI increased +0.205%MoM in July as expected, bringing the year-over-year change to 3.178%, up from 3.0% in June. Core CPI increased +0.16%, also in line, +4.653%YoY, the lowest pace since Oct 2021. Core CPI rose 3.1% on a 3mo annualized rate. The deceleration in core

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The Leading Economic Index, whose next year-over-year print comes Thursday Aug. 18, “could hit negative for the first time since the last recession,” Samuel Lau says. “If so, that’s another checked box to the recession watch.” #macro #stocks #rates #risk

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Jeff & Sam review the latest recession metrics, including LEI data that says we are IN a recession not heading toward one. Listen now: #stocks #bonds #rates #yield #spreads #PMI #inflation

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

The median existing-home sales price fell 0.95% from a year earlier to $375,700 in March — the largest decline since January 2012. #affordability #homeprices #rates #inflation #rent #mortgage

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Eying the changing Treasury yield curve May 1-5, @DLineCap 's Samuel Lau notes “a de-inversion trend continued with the 2s10s spread ending at -48 basis points.” Historically, after inverting, yield curves begin to de-invert ahead of recessions. Listen:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

5 months

Building permits increased 1.9%MoM, to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 1.518 million, vs. +0.5% consensus and -0.3% previous month. Single-family permits increased 1.0%MoM and multi-family permits rose 4.1%.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator (LEI) declined -0.3%MoM in April, the previous month was revised lower to +0.1%MoM. This brings the YoY pace to +4.7%. The biggest detractors during the month were from consumer expectations, building permits, and jobless claims.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

At $407,600, the median existing-home sales price exceeded $400,000 for the first time and represents a 14.8% increase from one year ago. #housing #affordability #rates #mortgages #supply #demand #inflation #rent #homeprices

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.4%MoM in July, bringing YoY change to -7.5%. The ann. 6mo change improved slightly to -7.8%. Stock prices and jobless claims were largest contributor to the leading index in July while ISM new orders, yield curve, and

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

. @DLineCap 's Jeff Mayberry and Sam Lau cover a mostly down market week of April 17-21 and explain the role played by the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility. Listen now: #Fed #RRP #rates #banks #monetarypolicy #markets #macro #stocks #bonds

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Jeff and Sam are keeping an eye on inversions in the 2-year-to-10 year Treasury yields and 3-month to 10-year Treasury yields: the start of de-inversion or steepening could signal recession coming sooner. Listen here:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Another weak read on the housing market. April pending home sales declined 3.9%MoM vs. -2.1% consensus and -1.6% last month. The largest monthly decline was seen in the northeast -16.2%MoM. #housing #inflation #affordability #rent #shelter #prices #inventory #mortgages

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Layoffs are subdued and the labor market remains tight. Initial jobless claims for the week of Feb. 18 remained below 200k for the 6th consecutive week at 192k. The 4-week moving average (solid blue line) at 191k. Continuing claims (orange line) dropped 37k to 1,654k.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.3%MoM in February, down -6.5% year-over-year. 6 out of the 10 components detracted from the leading index during the month. #stocks #wages #rates #ISM #expectations #jobs #credit

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

ISM Manufacturing PMI increased less than expected in February to 47.7 vs. 48.0 consensus and 47.4 last month. #prices #labor #inflation #jobs #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Senior loan officers are tightening their lending standards. MMM’s Sam & Eric unpack what this might mean for the HY corporate default rate. Listen here: #SLOOS #credit #rates #bonds #funding

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

The July payrolls report was mixed. The headline +187k jobs added was below the consensus of +200k, with -49k of downward revisions to the previous two months. Average weekly hours worked decreased -0.1 to 34.3hrs, the lowest since April 2020. However, the unemployment rate

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary survey for January improved more than expected to 64.6 vs. 60.7 consensus and 59.7 the previous month. #sentiment #demand #price #inflation #consumer #retail #rates #geopolitics #gas #energy #demand

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Home prices declined for a fifth straight month in November with the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city Composite -0.54%MoM vs. -0.65% consensus and -0.51% for the previous month. The year-over-year pace slowed to 6.77% from 8.64%. #housing #rates #Fed #economy

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

3 months

Initial jobless claims for the week of June 8thincreased 13k to 242k. The 4-week moving average rose to 227k, the highest since Sep 2023. Continuing claims increased 30k to 1,820k. The rise in initial claims was driven by large increases in CA, PA, and MN.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

December retail sales fell the most in a year. Headline retail sales -1.1%MoM vs. -0.9% consensus and a revised -1.0% last month. YoY, retail sales grew at 6%. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales decreased -0.7% MoM vs. 0.0% consensus and -0.5% a month prior.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Initial jobless claims for the week of April 15th increased 5k to 245k (seasonally adjusted). The 4-week moving average (solid blue line) stable at 240k. Continuing claims (orange line) increased 61k to 1,865k, the highest level since Nov 2021.

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18

DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Prices Index increased to 51.3, indicating manufacturers are seeing higher input prices compared to last month. #ISM #PMI #manufacturing #prices #inflation #growth

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

5 months

DoubleLine Minutes looks at the latest LEI print and how the latest numbers might impact the recent reframing of this recession metric. 👉

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

“Consumers’ grimmer outlook was driven by increasing concerns about inflation, in particular rising gas and food prices. Expectations have fallen well below a reading of 80, suggesting weaker growth in 2H of '22 as well as growing risk of recession by year end.”- @Conferenceboard

DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Conference Board Consumer Confidence for June decreased slightly more than expectations to 98.7 vs. a revised 103.2 last month. #sentiment #consumption #demand #supply #supplychain #geopolitics #China #lockdowns #inflation #stimulus #goods #trade #shipping

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Building permits declined -1.6%MoM to 1.33m. The decline was on a 6.5% drop in single-family permits. Multi-family permits increased 5.3%MoM.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The Conference Board releases its leading economic indicators index on Friday June 17. The April year-over-year change was 4.7%, down from 6.1% for March. The closer the LEI YoY change comes to 0%, the closer Jeff and Sam go on recession watch.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

3 months

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.6%MoM in April vs. -0.3% consensus and -0.3% the previous month. The 12-month change improved to -5.4%. The 6-month annualized change rose to -3.8%.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

3 years

ISM manufacturing PMI for March came in better than expectations at 64.7 vs. 61.5 consensus. This is the highest level since 1983. Of the 18 manufacturing industries, 17 reported growth in March. #ISM #PMI #manufacturing #services #growth #recovery #inflation #demand #supply

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

. @Conferenceboard Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.3%MoM in August vs. -0.5%MoM last month. Year-over-year, the index declined -1.0%, a leading recessionary signal. #expectations #buildingpermits #wages #IJC #stocks #rates #inflation #growth #recession

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

“The only place you could hide out this (Sept. 19-23) week,” DoubleLine quant Eric Dhall notes, “was in the U.S. dollar,” up 3% on the trade-weighted Dollar Index. Listen: #kingdollar #USD #liquidity #risk #EM #Europe #QT #inflation #rates #commodities

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The seasonally‐adjusted estimate of new houses for sale at the end of April was 444k. This represents a supply of 9.0 months at the current sales rate, the highest since 2010. #housing #prices #inflation #rates #MBS #mortgages #demand #supply #inventory

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

4 years

Treasury market today washed away two lines in the sand. 10-year yield up to 1.31% from 1.21% on Friday, highest level since March 2020. 30-year up to 2.09% from 2.01%, highest level in the past year. #UST #yields #rates #inflation

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

U.S. producer prices fell the most since the pandemic, -0.5% vs. -0.1% consensus and +0.2% the month prior. Year-over-Year increased 6.2%. PPI ex-Food and Energy increased in line with consensus, 0.1% MoM; year-over-year 5.5%. #rates #inflation #goods #services

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Q4 GDP was revised to 2.7% compared to the expectation for an unchanged 2.9% print. Notably, there was an upward revision to core PCE at 4.3% -- a significant adjustment from the initial 3.9% print and the expectations for no change in the data. Downward revisions to consumer

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

January retail sales came in stronger than expected. Headline retail sales +3.0%MoM vs. +2.0% consensus and -1.1% last month. YoY, retail sales grew at 6.4%. Excluding autos and gas, retail sales increased +2.6%MoM vs. +0.9% consensus and a revised -0.4% last month.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The April update of the Leading Economic Indicators is due May 19. With the month-over-month expected to be flat to down, and a 1.1% rolling off from last year, Sam Lau sees the LEI moving closer to raising the recession watch. #risk #recession #LEI

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

U.S. Housing Starts & Building Permits Housing starts rose more than expected in July on the back of new single-family home builds. Housing starts rose 3.9%MoM vs. 1.1% consensus with the prior month revised lower to -11.7% from -8.0%. Single-family starts rose 6.7% and

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

NAHB Homebuilder Sentiment index fell to 69 in May, the lowest level since June 2020. The largest declines were in the West and Midwest. #housing #affordability #construction #prices #supply #demand #materials #rates #inflation

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

5 months

ISM Manufacturing PMI improved in March to 50.3, the first expansionary reading since September 2022. The improvement was driven by production and new orders.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

“All eyes are on the CPI number that we get in a couple of weeks,” Jeff Mayberry says, “but certainly there’s nothing from the labor force side that would cause the Fed any concern that they shouldn’t raise rates.” #inflation #rates #FOMC #jobs #wages

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

For recession-leading Treasury curve inversions, academics prefer the spread between three-month and 10-year Treasury yields. That gap, still positive, is not yet flashing recession. Listen: #recession #risk #yield #credit #inflation #growth #bonds

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

4 years

@DLineCap Jeff Mayberry: “As we like to say at DoubleLine, we need two consecutive closes to confirm the level. When the markets re-open Tuesday, we’ll see whether those 1.2 and 2 percent levels hold.” #pivots #support #UST #rates #inflation Listen:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

New home sales fell in June, down 8.1% from the previous month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 590k, a two-year low. New home sales are down 17.4% from the a year ago. #housing #inflation #demand #supply #inventory #prices #rent #affordability #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

3/4s of the advance last month was due to goods, especially energy. Prices of goods climbed 2.4% in June, the most in three months. Prices of goods rose a record 17.9% YoY. Services prices gained 0.4% or 7.7% YoY, after a bigger 0.6% gain in May. #inflation #rates #growth

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

The spread of the 10-year Treasury yield over that of the three-month T-bill, Samuel Lau notes, narrowed from 50 to 30 basis points the week of Oct. 10-14, bringing that gap closer to a recessionary inversion. #rates #recession #growth #bonds #yields

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Conference Board Leading Index declined in April, -0.6%MoM vs. -0.6% consensus and -1.2% last month. Year-over-year, the leading index declined 8.0%, a level only experienced when the US economy is in recession. “The Conference Board forecasts a contraction of economic

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Existing home sales declined -2.2%MoM in July to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 4.07m, back near cycle lows. The median existing-home price for all housing types in July was $406.7k, an increase of 1.9% from July 2022. #housing #rates #affordability #inventory

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Housing starts in January dropped -4.5% MoM vs. -1.9% MoM expected. Seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.309m was down 21.4% from 12-months ago. Both single and multi-family starts declined more than 4% from December. #housing #shelter #rent #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

. @Conferenceboard LEI declined -0.4%MoM vs. -0.4%MoM last month. YoY rate dropped to 3.0% with the 6-month annual rate falling to -0.8. Stock prices, consumer expectations, and building permits were the biggest detractors. Interest rate spread the biggest contributor.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

4 months

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicator declined -0.3%MoM in March vs. -0.1% consensus and +0.2% the previous month. Negative contributions from the yield spread, new building permits, consumers’ outlook on business conditions, new orders, and initial unemployment insurance

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey revisions for March showed a small drop to 59.4 – the lowest level since Sep 2011. #sentiment #demand #price #inflation #consumer #retail #rates #geopolitics #gas #energy #demand

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary survey for February improved slightly more than expected to 66.4 vs. 65.0 consensus and 64.9 the previous month. #sentiment #inflation #economy

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Housing starts surged 21.7%MoM, to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.63 million, in May vs. -0.1% consensus and -2.9% the previous month. Single-family starts increased 18.5% and multi-family starts soared 27.1%. #housing #rent #shelter #inflation #rates

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

3 months

University of Michigan consumer sentiment preliminary survey for June came in below expectations, 65.6 vs. 72.0 consensus and 69.1 the previous month. The June reading was a seven-month low.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

MMM’s Jeff & Sam look at a red week for commodities, which might post their first negative month since November 2021. Listen: #oil #copper #energy #gas #inflation #rates #geopolitics #supply #demand

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5

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

U.S. Housing starts fell more than expected in September, decreasing 8.1%MoM vs. -7.2% consensus. The seasonally adjusted annual rate of housing starts is 1.44mm, down from a cycle high of 1.81mm in April. #housing #rent #shelter #inflation #demand #rates #supply #construction

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

11 months

Catching up on recession indicators after a market and macro recap. Join us live Friday after the bell!

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15

DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

ISM Manufacturing PMI declined in January to 47.4 vs. 48.0 consensus and 48.4 last month. #prices #labor #inflation #jobs #rates

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16

DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

5 months

CPI once again came in higher than consensus in March. Headline CPI +0.378%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus and 0.442% the previous month, bringing the year-over-year change to 3.48%. Core CPI increased more than consensus +0.359%MoM vs. 0.3% consensus, and 0.358% in February,

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

US homebuilder sentiment dropped for the 10th straight month in October, falling to the lowest level since May 2020. Builder sentiment weakened in all regions but the Northeast. In the West, it fell to a 10-year low. #housing #affordability #rates #prices #inventory #demand

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7

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

U.S. new home sales fell for the sixth time this year to the slowest pace since early 2016, declining -12.6%MoM in July vs. -2.5% consensus and -7.1% last month. Sales of new single‐family houses were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 511k, down 29.6% from a year ago.

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

ISM services PMI unexpectedly increased in January to 55.2 vs. 50.5 consensus and 49.6 previous month. This was the biggest monthly gain since June 2020. #growth #reopening #travel #services #prices #inflation #demand

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8

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

3 years

On the inflation front, PCE increased 2.3%YoY, core PCE increased 1.8%. It will be important to monitor whether the rise in inflation is temporary or more structural. Currently the Fed is betting that it will be temporary. #inflation #producers #consumers #transitory

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

1 year

Are commodities setting the stage for a run in the second half of 2023? MMM’s Jeff and Sam discuss on the latest episode. Listen here:

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Supplier Deliveries Index declined to 45.1; the lowest level since the GFC and a sign of weak demand and alleviation of supply chain issues. #inflation #demand #rates #supplychain #goods #services

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8

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

US-based employers announced 103K job cuts in January, according to Challenger, 40% above pre-pandemic Jan '20. The cuts were concentrated in tech (42K) and retail (13K). For the technology sector this is the highest number of cuts in January since the series started in '93.

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7

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

ISM services unexpectedly declined in Feb to 56.5 vs. 61.1 consensus and 59.9 last month. #growth #reopening #travel #services #prices #inflation #demand

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DoubleLine Minutes

@DLineMinutes

2 years

Job Openings in July came in at 11,239k vs. 10,375k expected and June data was revised up to 11,040k from 10,698k. There are now 1.98 job openings for every unemployed person, near the record high seen in March. The quits rate fell to 2.7% from 2.8%, lowest since May 2021.

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