Climate science and technology policy since 1989. Building Climate Systems Engineering
@UChicago
. Founded Carbon Engineering. Work interferes with my climbing.
Hmm, I returned from the backcountry to find NY Times put a story about me on front page of Sunday's paper.
My comment here:
Feedback and questions are welcome.
1/3
1/ Two pivotal illustrations of climate progress.
One: The flow of money to decarbonization has tripled to 0.75% of GDP in a decade
Two: Per capita emissions have peaked and total emissions will peak soon
1/3 Cheap intermittent solar power can make carbon-neutral hydrocarbons: high-energy fuels that are easy to store and use. My 12 min talk at Royal Society
#CodexTalks
describes a low-risk fast path to industrial-scale solar-fuels
Got an hour? Want a long-form lecture on solar
#geoengineering
and how it fits into climate strategy? Likely not. But, just in case... My
@HarvardMuseum
talk is up. This is a major 2019 reboot of my 'standard' solar geo talk. bouquets or brickbats welcome.
My recipe for zero:
#1
: Electricity -> zero
#2
: Everything than can be electrified --> electric
#3
: Remaining stuff to carbon neutral fuels--looking at you Ms long-haul jet--or CCS--Mr Cement Kiln
#4
: Clean up dregs with CDR
Turing the corner on
#1
is big news🙂
1/6 I am thrilled to announce that I have moved to
@UChicago
to lead a new initiative on Climate Systems Engineering. See news story. This thread addresses some obvious questions.
To colleagues noting that Greta gets some facts wrong: True & irrelevant.
Greta's gift is stating the essential facts: That our generation has failed. And, that our failure is rooted in hypocrisy and corruption.
We need more like her. And more in my generation.
Airbus buys 0.4 million tons CO2 of pure sequestration using Carbon Engineering's tech with options to purchase more.
I am *very* proud.
This is by far the largest purchase of pure negative emissions.
A huge vote of confidence in our technology.
We’re pleased to share that today our U.S. partner,
@1PointFiveDAC
, announced the sale of 400,000 tonnes of carbon removal credits from its planned first
#DirectAirCapture
facility to aerospace leader Airbus – a key milestone for aviation decarbonization.
"We made the wrong choice 40 yrs ago"
Joel Rogers of On Democracy told me to read
@timoreilly
's WTF. It's terrific. Here's O'Reilly's summary of the political economy in the US over the last century:
1/6 What's the least bad way to cool the planet?
My first try comparing carbon removal (CDR) and solar geoengineering (SG) is out as a 1,750 word Guest Essay in
@nytopinion
.
Back in Canada. The US testing failure is truly catastrophic. British Columbia alone is has tested more than 6,000 people. It's population is about 60 times less than the US, and looks like the US had just passing 10,000 cumulative. Public healthcare works.
Out running in NYC rain, struck by the century-long triumph of environmental regulation that allows air so clean in a huge city.
We should celebrate environmental success to demonstrate the power of government regulating for public good & driving technological change.
1/4 Bill
@BillGates
's climate book is released tomorrow.
It's terrific: Sensible. Accurate. Practical.
Read this book if you care about climate action.
Bill did his homework and it shows.
I played a small part in helping to manage that homework. Some background...
Climate & Covid lessons? Both have a stock-and-flow time dynamics with delays between policy pain and future benefit. Both show early small (compared to what will come) harms. Both have deep uncertainty. And, in both cases it seems that many underestimate what's to come 1/2
1/ Why not commercialize solar geoengineering?
Motivated by silly commercial stuff that bubbled up this year, this thread provides a few reasons why commercializing solar geoengineering is a terrible idea.
Bouquets, brickbats, or additional arguments most welcome.
Op-ed: don't pump $$$ into greening the oil patch, Alberta must focus it's brains and energy on building what's next -- and that might have nothing to do with oil.
@globeandmail
We will debate on up-coming podcasts:
1/2 Yes! This is why I resigned from the IPCC AR5 report where I was assigned to the Chap 6 on "Assessing Transformation Pathways" which might more accurately have have been called "Uncritically Reporting our IAM model results".
"By giving IAM-based scenarios center stage in assessments, the IPCC reproduces the idea it is the (contestable & flawed) laws of economic theory that determine the rules of engagement in climate policy, not laws of the carbon cycle or distr. of mit.'ion risks"
I would be even more proud to work at Harvard if it lived up to it's meritocratic ideals by ending legacy admits & prefs to doners kids, surely we can afford to say 'no' to those $$.
@NickKristof
hits nail on head
Shed a tear for Peace. The Peace river that is, where 100 sq km of glorious river valley is about to get wasted to provide an average of ~0.6 GW of hydro at a cost of >10 $b CDN. A decade long train wreck of misgovernment. A class "A" clusterfuck. Here's pix from our trip:
Terrific interview on geoengineering with
@DrJaneFlegal
and
@ezraklein
. Worth a long listen. Sensible and on-point. This thread has some comments linked to time stamps in the podcast.
"We know more or less that we have to get our emissions to zero as soon as possible, but even then we don’t know what the world is going to look like." –
@DrJaneFlegal
1/ Is every $ on CCS a waste? Enough folks asked me about this to tempt me to tweet.
Fair cop that CCS 1.0--CCS as a path to low carbon electricity – was overhyped by folks including me.
5/ Progress is the product of decades of action by individuals and civil society pushing against fossilized interests.
It is woefully, shamefully, maybe criminally, inadequate.
But its real. And emissions peak--when it happens--will mark a turning point in the climate fight.
Thrilled that CE has completed big funding round. Truth is, the chance of getting this far seemed remote when we founded in '09 with ideas & a few amazing people. CE now has >50 people driving fast to first large-scale (>100 ktCO2/year) commercial DAC plant. It's been a privilege
We’re pleased to announce we've raised USD$68M in private investment. As demand for climate action gains momentum, our
#directaircapture
technology can be a key part of the solution, and now with this funding we can move ahead with commercialization.
1/ What if we regret not geoengineering?
Fear of overconfidence dominates thinking about SRM.
Scenario A: we believe SRM works and come to rely on it by underinvesting in emissions cuts, removal, and adaptation
My 2¢ on the complex politics of big oil's investments in carbon removal and other cleantech.
General arguments motivated and informed by my experience with
@CarbonEngineer
Apocalypse not! The nonsense is piled high here.
1. Climate is not an apocalypse.
2. It's not averted. Not unless talk is as effective as action.
3. And, DAC, is, at best, one piece of a climate puzzle that requires many tools and minds to resolve.
LEAD | Turning air into gasoline. B.C.'s Carbon Engineering says new technology has dramatically cut the cost of removing carbon from the air.
@DKeithClimate
intvu
@6
:30pm. Backgrounder here:
3/3 I am *so* proud of
@CarbonEngineering
, but..
This is NOT about one company. It’s about an energy pathway that could grow to >10% of global primary energy before mid-century, allowing intermittent solar energy to energize heavy transport and other hard-to-decarbonize sectors.
2/3 Background: Carbon-Neutral Hydrocarbons . Recent work on renewable hydrogen . H2 will win in some markets, but it has many disadvantages as a fuel. The big $$$ is getting to H2, once there, why not go to hydrocarbons with DAC?
Proud to be
@CarbonEngineer
today to thank Jonathan Wilkinson and speak for the company. This $25M accelerates our path to megaton-scale commercial DAC.
Canadian’s can be proud of of our clean-tech innovation ecosystem: merit-based, incremental, and performance-driven.
Today, the Honourable
@JonathanWNV
announced a Canadian Government investment of $25M into CE. This announcement was another big step forward for our company and for this idea –
#DirectAirCapture
of CO2 from the air – and we are grateful for this support.
Washington Post editors say we blew a Canada-sized hole in the idea that strong carbon policies are political suicide. It is important data: a post-Greta election in a western democracy with climate as a top political issue. It's a step. I am proud.
Faculty positions for scholars interested in Climate Systems Engineering.
I am excited and proud to announce our open-rank open-discipline cluster-search for faulty to be associated with
@UChicago
Climate Systems Engineering initiative.
EOE/Vet/Disability
2/ One: Decarbonization requires replacing the high-emissions energy infrastructure with a zero-emissions alternative.
flow of $$ --> clean infrastructure is a stronger measure of climate action than the flow of pledges --> mediasphere.
CBAM is a BFD
The EU's new Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will get less press than grand proclamations at COP but it is likely far more consequential.
The beginning of Nordhaus' Climate Clubs?
The power of trade policy as a ratchet to align climate policy
Absolutely true! Anyone who thinks neg emissions are quick tech fix for hard technical & political work of cutting emissions is delusional. DAC-fuels enable near term emissions cuts; large-scale negative emissions make sense when emissions are heading to zero. First cut emissions
My hunch is the overhype of tipping points may soon reach its own TP
Tipping points & planetary boundaries motivated by hope that science can provide sharp boundaries obviating need for debate about trade-offs.
It's bad science & it's profoundly elitist and anti-democratic.
Err, nope. after a life-long non-scientific survey I determined that the best Bagels are from Montreal, specifically from the orginal St Viateur (Sorry, New York Times)
The Best Bagels Are in California (Sorry, New York)
1. New paper with Kerry Emanuel and a GFDL team in
@NatureClimate
, using high-resolution model to test which regions would be made worse off by solar geoengineering--find that no region is made worse off in any of the major climate impact indicators we examined
Proud of my trans daughter Miranda. Remembering my Grandma's friend Bill: born about 1915?, Irish, Catholic, & gay. At early 80's dinner in NYC he talked about his life & struggle. At dinner last night Miranda talked about her struggle. So proud. Stonewall +50, progress too slow!
1/n Here are my thoughts as US citizen--a rich, white citizen. I am no expert on policing but I have had gun's in my face (in a war zone) and been arrested by US police.
Two problems: racism and US police culture/training.
Early light this morning at
@CarbonEngineer
's old blue barn.
Our team just realized that we were slightly understating the performance of our commercial plant because we had assumed 400 ppm, and average over plant life is more likely >420. Funny and scary.
6/6 What's the least bad way to cool the planet?
My CDR vs SG hunch is just that. A guess biased on limited data. I am not confident. And I am biased. Don't trust my hunch.
What's needed is serious primary research. And multi-disciplinary, open, and international assessment.
1. Happy as proud parent of trans daughter who may work in the US.
2. Relived that the supreme court did thing. (& Happy daughter's assumption that US gov was captured by right-wing nutjobs not 100% true)
Thanks to PBS for careful treatment of solar geoengineering with Frank Keutsch &
@PeterFrumhoff
. Full 8-min segment here: . They did a great job on SCoPEx animation from engineering model, see Frank's experiment page for more:
"We do need to drive emissions to zero, but we also need to reduce the risk from the [carbon dioxide] that's in the air,"
@DKeithClimate
tells us.
That's leading the
@Harvard
engineer to ask some big questions, reports
@milesobrien
.
Our paper on Direct Air Capture in
@Joule_CP
reports 100 person-years of work
@CarbonEngineer
where we bringing industrial-scale DAC to market for
#carbonremoval
and
#airtofuels
first paper with end-to-end engineering and cost analysis for a comercial DAC
Ideas ➡️ hardware
Almost 20 years since we started trying to cost out Klaus Lackner's claims about removing carbon from the atmosphere, and 12.5 years since forming Carbon Engineering.
Now construction moving fast on 0.5 MtCO2/yr plant.
Today’s groundbreaking ceremony in Texas marks an important moment in Carbon Engineering’s history and for the deployment of large-scale Direct Air Capture (DAC).
CE’s founder
@DKeithClimate
was there for the shovel turn, witnessing a milestone on the journey he began in 2009.
Jim Hansen writes about our DAC paper in Joule: "estimated costs...are lower than some prior estimates, yet are so high as to strongly support the need for rapid reduction of fossil fuel emissions."
Nail-hit-on-head
Full paper here:
When "green" energy isn't. Science reporting done right: Timely and balanced article on the wood pellet trade. Green energy should have a light footprint on the land: solar or nuclear. Not wood.
Energy Within Environmental Constraints, my free
@edXOnline
class starts Jan 18th in sync the Harvard classroom version
Overview and video at:
Here's
@BillGates
blurb
My group build a new webpage with some background info on solar geoengineering. Shaped by our biases, but perhaps a useful starting point nevertheless.
A helicopter will land on mars in half an hour.
Nice bit of collaborative work by a bunch of half-baked hominids who to often focus on besting their neighbor or grabbing another bite.
It does not solve our problems at home. It's just nice.
1/7 Geoengineering droughts?
Thread
#1
debunking solar geoengineering's BS mountain
Search geoengineering & drought, you get's ~0.5 million google hits and 1,696 news articles in Nexis starting with a 1991 Newsweek article.
Must be some facts underneath?
1/13 Johnathan Foley
@GlobalEcoGuy
says "Solar Geoengineering: Ineffective, Risky, and Unnecessary".
Well, 2 out of 3 ain't bad. But, before we get to which 2, let's consider his arguments.
1/n A $100m carbon removal
@xprize
cool! But folks who care about climate should ask some hard questions.
Virgin Earth Challenge $25m prize launched in '07 by
@richardbranson
. Original prize terms were nonsensical: required a $ bn business to win so the $25m would be meaningless
Strong Editorial in Nature supporting research into solar geoengineering in light of the SCoPEx experience
Give research into solar geoengineering a chance
Read this if you care about solar geoengineering. (Where "Care about" includes a strong bias for or against research).
This is a terrific, well researched, opinion essay.
@jtemple
has found his voice on his topic, and it's a voice worth hearing.
U.S. Finds no Evidence that Trump is a Klingon, but Can't Rule It Out, Either
Thanks Mick
@MickWest
for your tireless and respectful debunking of UFS's, Chemtrails, and the like.
This revision to the headline from the NYT is a simplistic truism. You can't rule out aliens. You can't rule out fairies either. The key finding here is that there's no evidence for either.
"nature-based solutions" are (often) neither.
Here's a short video of me making explaining the arguments correspond to this diagram
@DrJaneFlegal
thanks for this thread
@ezraklein
@leahstokes
I’ve not written about this, but other, smarter people have ()!
@DKeithClimate
also gave a talk last week touching on this ( - relevant slide attached).
No true. Here's a 2008 pix of me on the Slipner platform site of successful CCS project that started in 1996.
CCS has lots of problems -- like any tech, but...
Assertions don't make reality.
Facts matter.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is unproven and expensive. Despite billions of dollars being spent here and overseas, there are still no successful projects operating anywhere in the world.
CCS will never be a ‘zero-emissions' solution.
#auspol
Yes. The huge overhype on CDR allows policy makers to push problem down road, think they can meet climate targets while doing little. You have done a great job pointing out this hypocrisy. You are right.
But that does not mean it's bad to make progress on air-to-fuels
Integrated Assessment Models love negative emissions, but most don't include DAC. If the cost of DAC goes from the previous $600t/CO₂ to $100-300/tCO₂, then IAMs will deploy even more negative emissions. This will just exacerbate our concerns.
I rediscovered a marvelous technology. It enables me to have a conversation with someone who is physically distant without being tied to my screen. I can go for a walk while concentrating on what the person is saying instead of multitasking at my desk. Disruptive!
#PhoneNotZoom
climatwitter's reaction to Kerry's 50% is a frightening display of polarized zealotry
Imagine if our attitude to vaccines and covid was that any new technology was cop-out or delay tactic.
Nice thread from Jessie
@JesseLReynolds
Mission Implausible is a new pod by two ex-CIA types that aims to debunk nonsense.
They talked chemtrails with
@MickWest
, me, and others.
Like my segment at 22:50...
Chemtrails Are Making Us Horny and/or Infertile
Proud to see Canada's climate leadership with
#CarbonTax
and rebate. Growing smart policy takes time, 12 years since the C-tax effort in the '06 Dion campaign (in which I played small roll as expert consultant). Now is the time.
2/2 IPCC science assessments work reasonably well, but IPCC assessment of mitigation pathways needs to break from allowing black-box IAM's to rule. There are better ways e.g.
It's easy to blame
@realDonaldTrump
, and that mendacious blowhard richly deserves blame, but the weak US response is --- I suspect -- rooted in systematic disregard or coordinated public health and the over-complexity of the baroque US healthcare system.
We don't have all tech for net zero.
But its' the wrong question. The crucial fact is that we have all tech needed for stuff that that will be built in a pragmatic political planning horizon.
do - reevaluate - do more.
Need for new tech is no excuse for delaying decarb now
Wow! Mark
@mzjacobson
just knows that no CCS project can ever be useful. Not one.
Mark, what did God look like when you talked with her?
This level of overconfidence may help get Twitter followers, but I suspect it makes it harder to craft sound environmental policy.
@DKeithClimate
@cutlercleveland
@Climeworks
@NETL_DOE
@howarth_cornell
It is black and white
Direct Air Capture (DAC) & Carbon Capture and Use/Storage (CCUS) are useless at reducing CO2 and increase fossil mining, pollution & infrastructure
They serve only to lengthen the life of the fossil industry while damaging health and climate
How to Argue about Solar Geoengineering
Wonderful draft paper from philosopher Britta Clark showing the power of new voices bringing new clarity to the debate ()
Excited to see how this discussion gets passed to new generations in a new year
Congrats to Zhen Dai
@jenswimsthemoon
for successfully--great job!--defending her thesis: "Managing climate risks with solar geoengineering: tailoring radiative forcing, reducing ozone loss, and understanding expert perspectives". 1/2
Stunningly muddy thinking from
@davidharsanyi
touting our work for the Right.
Claim: innovation's like ours trumps "top-down economic regimes.. the Left has proposed over the years"
Fact: our business case depends on strong government regulations like Low-Carbon Fuel Standard
Leakage from CO2 storage: New study estimates 98% retention in 10,000 yr
@Haszeldine
see:
It seems that we were not far off the mark when we wrote the IPCC SRCCS Summary for Policymakers in 2005 (see image below)
New compilation of global data shows CO2 storage with
#CCS
#GGR
#NET
expected to be 98% secure after 10,000years. Nature Communications, open access, by us
1/2 Anonymous reviewers, I❤️you. Second solar geo paper in a row back today with all positive reviews. Am I hallucinating? Drunk? Could attitudes about this topic be changing? Each of the 5 reviews had detailed and sensible suggestions for improvement. 🙂
OK, I rise to that bate.
No! Solar geo is not our only hope.
Emissions cuts are necessary, but they are not my only hope.
Local adaptation is vital but it is not my only hope.
Political change is needed, dito
Complicated problems get resolved with many interlocking changes
1/3 Is solar geoengineering underway? My take is no. Symbolic actions can have big impacts, but theater does not equal reality.
When I buy a ticket across the Atlantic, my decision puts more sulfur in the air than did the first "make sunsets" balloon.
Sleepy young griz uninterested in Twitter
(Photo on Saturday near Weeping Wall just south of Columbia Icefields)
It was good to be away from the internet (& twitter!) for a few days
1/n Geoengineering Is the Only Solution to Our Climate Calamities say
@paragkhanna
and
@MichaelRFerrari
@WIRED
. Yes, we need to talk solar geo, but... faith in innovation will not save us.
4/6 Yet, cutting emissions does not cool the planet on a policy relevant time-scale.
"Stopping emissions stops making the climate worse. But repairing the damage, insofar as repair is possible, will require more than emissions cuts."