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@ConsensusGurus

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Joined November 2021
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
15 days
Unpopular Opinion - Trump will be Bad for the Current Housing Rally 1) Supply side pressures: The current supply of cheap foreign labor for builder subcontractors is reduced, while imported housing components of all sorts (lighting, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, furniture)
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Does the US Census Fabricate Retail Sales Data? They appear to, at least in subcategory 444: Building Material & Garden Equipment & Supplies Dealers How do we know this? Well the Census says the category grew sales 5.3% Y/Y in July. Unfortunately for the Census data purists,
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 months
@KobeissiLetter Apparently nothing other than changing their domain name (which this research analyst missed 😂)
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 years
Mega cap tech earnings are complete. What happened to forward expectations? Our table below outlines Consensus estimate revisions for the next year in response to 4Q results (NTM = next twelve months). $TSLA $AAPL $GOOGL $MSFT $AMZN $NFLX $META
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
1 year
Alphabet / Google $GOOGL 3Q Summary Cloud miss and operating income miss... expensive into the print as we highlighted earlier today. -5% afterhours
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
5 months
@zerohedge Berkshire Hathaway A shares -99% what a deal
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 years
$NVDA is +75% since 3Q, the $SMH is +32%. Our table below looks at the Semiconductor recovery in the context of Consensus CY'24 growth. Where's the upside/downside? Reporting soon: $GFS 2/14, $ADI 2/15, $AMAT 2/16, $NVDA 2/22 $TSM $ASML $TXN $QCOM $AMD $INTC $LRCX $MU $NXPI
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
12 days
Trump tariffs will smoke the big US furniture names, notably $WSM and $RH. Likely $W too, but they don't disclose sourcing. Goldman's tariff basket in the image below. $RH 10-K re: that nice handmade furniture you're buying: 66% of our products were sourced from Asia,
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@ConsensusGurus
Unpopular Opinion - Trump will be Bad for the Current Housing Rally 1) Supply side pressures: The current supply of cheap foreign labor for builder subcontractors is reduced, while imported housing components of all sorts (lighting, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, furniture)
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
25 days
Celsius $CELH is starting to look very interesting here in the context of peers....
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
1 year
Amazon $AMZN 3Q Summary Tough to benchmark on the back of $MSFT $GOOGL $META moves already in the stock.. Forward revenue guide, AWS rev are disappointing but the profit surprises might be enough to hold these initial gains post market. Miss on cash generation also stands out.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Amazon $AMZN Earnings Recap - AWS Shines, but Forward Guide Disappoints Mixed quarter, missing on the top line modestly but with nice profit metric beats (ex cash generation). Forward guide will leave a bad taste. Stock down big initially but recovering. Now -2%.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Amazon $AMZN Earnings Setup - Favorable Indeed The only mega-cap with rapid multiple compression (and arguably the most leverage to ramp EPS). Great setup into today's print but will the consumer pull-back bite? Results after the bell today.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
1 year
Microsoft $MSFT 1Q Summary Cleanly ahead in every measure - and Azure / Cloud moving in the opposite direction of $GOOGL Guidance on the call - this name could reverse violently at that time.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
11 months
Is Anything Growing at Apple $AAPL? The world's most valuable company trades at a rich P/E multiple of ~30x, but is anything actually growing under the hood? Our table below looks at Apple's FY'23 financials and finds that not much of importance is.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Amazon $AMZN Earnings Review - Profit Shines Revenue a tad light in the guide but not enough to be upset about. AWS in-line = only other potentially negative take. As stated above, profit shines.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Amazon $AMZN Earnings Setup - Looks Cheap vs. History The only cheaper valuation into the print was Q3, which saw a 7% positive move. Marginal outperformance vs. the index. Looks favorable on those two metrics.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Re-Energized - Celsius $CELH Earnings Recap A clean sheet - with big beats in international, gross margin, and EPS. Stock +10% initially.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Taken to the Woodshed, is the Pain Over? - Celsius $CELH Earnings Setup It appears that some of not all of the inventory rebalance discounting may be over - is the pain for investors fully in the rear view mirror? Results tomorrow morning.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 months
Awful August for Tesla $TSLA countries with delivery disclosures available. The only meaningfully positive contributions from Norway (+46% Y/Y) and South Korea (+217%). Big negatives include: Portugal (-86%) Italy (-80%) Germany (-66%) Turkey (-65%) Spain (-62%) France (-53%)
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 months
Tesla $TSLA Germany August unit sales -66% Y/Y... abysmal. China appears to be the lone large country showing some growth of late and supporting consolidated deliveries.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
1 month
Big Beats Against a Favorable Setup - Micron $MU Earnings Recap AI, AI, AI... Stock +9% in response.
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@ConsensusGurus
Is there any semis name more cyclical than $MU - Micron Earnings Setup Dramatic underperformance as $MU has fallen back to earth. Sitting at just 11x forward earnings into the print this afternoon.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
10 days
Nuclear Ecosystem Trading Comp Sheet - First Take What'd we screw up here? What'd we leave out? Comments / questions / suggestions, please! $SMR $OKLO $NNE $GEV $CW $BEPC $BWXT $SNCAF $MIR $LEU $AEGXF $SILXY $CEG $VST $TLN $CCJ $NATKY $UEC $PALAF $BQSSF $UUUU $EU $URG $PENMF
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
1 year
AMD $AMD Q3 Summary Not... not great. Not an $NVDA quarter, that's for sure. Looking to the call to translate the guidance shortfall and the lack of cash generation.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 years
The largest dislocations from this morning's NYSE Flash Crash 2.0 - Multiple $100BN+ swings. $TSM $V $XOM $WMT $MA $LLY $T $VZ $MCD $NVO $RTX $PBR $UNP $UL $SONY $WFC $SHEL $MO $NKE $UBER $NIO $SHOP
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Microsoft $MSFT 2Q Review - Updated with Guidance Revenue disappoints modestly, but with Cloud ahead - so a wash most likely. Margins ahead, though $MSFT said FY'24 OM would be 100-200bps higher vs. +70bps est.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Microsoft $MSFT 2Q Review - Clean Beat but Worth 35x? A clean sheet, but by relatively narrow margins given the run $MSFT has been on. Guidance on the call will determine the move - we give benchmarks in our table below.
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@ConsensusGurus
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@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Microsoft $MSFT Earnings Recap - Cloud Misses, the World Dies -8% initially as Cloud revenue misses, dragging most of tech lower with it. Guidance on the call - Seems a bit of an overreaction until we hear from the company at 5:30. Listen live:
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Microsoft $MSFT Earnings Setup - Trending Lower but Still > 30x Forward Earnings Results after the bell today.
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@ConsensusGurus
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@ConsensusGurus
1 year
Nvidia $NVDA 3Q Summary - The Highest Bar Imaginable Initial sell-off and then full recovery to positive. FCF a tad light but tough for analysts to model appropriately, and commentary about China sales issues was also a negative. What's not to like otherwise, though.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Alphabet / Google $GOOGL Earnings Recap - Cloud Wins, YouTube Ads Fail, FCF Weak Relatively solid quarter for $GOOGL in spite of weakness at YouTube and a big gap in FCF vs. expectations. Cloud ahead and ahead big at the profit level.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Alphabet / Google $GOOGL Earnings Setup - Is $GOOGL Expensive Now? 21.4x forward is the most expensive valuation into the print dating back to '21. Lots of earnings response volatility in this name, 7.5%+ moves each of the last 3 quarters. Underperforming of late, and not
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@ConsensusGurus
2 years
Super Bowl LVII ad spending = ~$7M for a 30s slot. Most have money to burn, but others.. not so much. Below shows Consensus '23 Op. Inc. We highlight $DKNG $DASH, the perennial money pits of CAC, and $ELF $SQSP, both spending big relative to size. $UBER $TAP $GM $PEP $BUD $PG
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
4 months
$ASML Earnings Recap - Bookings Bounce, 3Q Weak, FY Unch Big booking beat contrasts with near-term top-line weakness in the 3Q guide and an unchanged FY outlook. Confirms '25, '30 targets
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
4 months
$ASML Earnings Setup - First Look at the AI Value Chain 40x forward earnings is barely cheaper than last Q, when we saw a -7% reaction in response to top and bottom-line estimate reductions. Have trends flipped positively? We also get $TSM this week.
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@ConsensusGurus
8 months
Crowdstrike $CRWD Earnings Recap - Clean, Green Sheet, Valuation the Only Hang-Up Tough to sell a set of results as clean as this. Well ahead almost everywhere. Stock +17% initially.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
8 months
Crowdstrike $CRWD Earnings Setup - Still (Comically) Expensive Even after today's give back, still at the high end of SaaS / Cyber security stock valuations. Just a casual 20 turns multiple expansion since last quarter, but with steady upward revisions for both Rev / EPS. Note
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@ConsensusGurus
8 months
Nvidia $NVDA Earnings Recap - Beats All Over, but Enough? Green across the board, but how far had expectations run ahead of these Consensus numbers? Stock higher, then lower, now higher again in after hours- the conference call will help determine a direction.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Nvidia $NVDA Earnings Setup - Estimates Ramp, Multiple Little Changed Despite the jaw-dropping 40% outperformance since last quarter vs. the QQQ, $NVDA's multiple has only expanded from 31x to 34x forward earnings, as analysts continue to play catch up with demand. That said -
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Meta $META Earnings Review - We Get a Dividend? Nothing to hate on here - clean up and down over. New $0.50/sh quarterly dividend is sure to open up the investor base, too.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Meta $META Earnings Setup - 21x is Still Cheap? Expensive to the last few years but cheap to a longer history and the rest of mega cap tech. Material outperformance of late.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
14 days
Thanks @OptionsHawk
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@ConsensusGurus
Does anyone have a definitive list of all of the AI-power plays - nuclear, grid, components, uranium, etc.?
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@ConsensusGurus
7 months
@ErrataRob @ljmontello @sid_sarasvati South Atlanta… what sort of weapon do you have with you?
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Profits be Damned, A Race to the Bottom - Super Micro $SMCI Earnings Recap Tough to make much sense of these numbers other than this is an all out war vs $DELL to ship as many servers as possible regardless of profit. How is $SMCI still burning cash at this fast of a clip?
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Lambs to Slaughter or a Beautiful Setup - Super Micro $SMCI Earnings Preview Holding up relatively well today, but after shaving half of its share price from this year's highs. 18x fwd earnings is cheap to recent history but expensive to the longer term. Earnings Tuesday.
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@ConsensusGurus
1 year
Apple $AAPL 4Q Summary Not bad, not great... the China miss stands out like a sore thumb given the Tim Cook trip recently.
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CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Hello 911? I’d like to report a murder
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@ConsensusGurus
1 year
Meta / Facebook $META 3Q Summary Excellent quarter, but 4Q revenue disappoints. Combine that w/ the YTD run, and a big positive response here is probably tough.
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@ConsensusGurus
8 months
Sure, results vs. Consensus will determine the $NVDA stock move from here forward... but can we just take a step back and look in awe at these Y/Y figures?
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
8 months
Nvidia $NVDA Earnings Recap - Beats All Over, but Enough? Green across the board, but how far had expectations run ahead of these Consensus numbers? Stock higher, then lower, now higher again in after hours- the conference call will help determine a direction.
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@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Apple $AAPL Earnings Recap - Solid Print Excl. China The problem here is that expectations have run so far ahead of fundamentals as folks look to Siri 2.0 / AI implementation. Stock roughly flat now. Guidance coming in media commentary and the conference call.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
3 months
Apple $AAPL Earnings Setup - Ugly, but Does it Matter? Since 2007, $AAPL has only traded north of 31x once into earnings (Jan '21) - and it sold off 3.5% in response. Given $AAPL is all about forward AI, maybe today's results don't even matter. Results after the bell.
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@ConsensusGurus
2 months
@zerohedge Can’t spell Liesman without Lies
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@ConsensusGurus
2 months
Another Impressive Print, but Lacking Upside We're Accustomed To - Nvidia $NVDA Earnings Recap Modest miss on cash generation, with forward margin outlook in-line. Stock taking a short breather for now.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
2 months
Starting to Actually Look Expensive? Nvidia $NVDA Earnings Setup Cape Cod vacation next week so posting this a bit early - will update should the numbers move materially.
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@ConsensusGurus
15 days
@JoePompliano and hence why he got off for gambling on his games
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@ConsensusGurus
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@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Alphabet / Google $GOOGL 4Q Review - Cheap Enough? Stock weak on a modest miss in the Ad business, and what is going on with cash generation? Big FCF miss, with capex coming in hot but operating cash also well short.
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@ConsensusGurus
CG
@ConsensusGurus
9 months
Alphabet / Google $GOOGL - A Cheap $MSFT Knock-Off? At 21x forward earnings, $GOOGL is very cheap to peer $MSFT (35x) - but that discount isn't new. $GOOGL has traded in-line with the index, and is still at a cheaper valuation than it was just a couple years ago.
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