Wild that Owen Jones is getting a pile on for this take, though ultimately predictable.
The vast majority of gay people absolutely see unironic use of “homosexual” as a red flag and for good reason.
South West London Assembly constituency
🟠LD: 32.6% (+4.3)
🔴LAB: 24.8% (-1.5)
🔵CON: 24.4% (-7.5)
🟢GRN: 8.6% (-2.0)
🟣RFM: 7.1% (+5.5)
LibDems gain that from the Conservative – first London Assembly gain today. First time the LibDems have ever won an constituency seat too.
For a rough benchmark of what to expect in the inaugural East Midlands mayoral election on 2 May, here's how the area voted in the local elections last year
🌹LAB: 40%
🔵CON: 30%
🔶LD: 10%
🟢GRN: 7%
⚫️OTH: 14%
@NewsyNick
For me more important than roommates is just having close friends living nearby where you can have some spontaneity without the (imo many) downsides of living together.
@MaosGardener
You live in the Netherlands, where a state-funded clinic provides world-class trans healthcare on demand.
In the Netherlands, there are 2.6 guns per 100 people.
In the USA, there are 120 guns per 100 people.
Which one has better respect for trans rights?
Stop the LARP.
All London council by-elections in except the two Hackney by-elections which I think counts tomorrow.
It's a bit all over the place but averages out to a result similar to 2022, which was a 16 point Labour lead
Only 13 wards but they're fairly diverse
@Mill226
They've been going on about that they don't like vaccine passports for a bit tbf; I think they're trying to shift back to like a civil liberties platform post-Brexit or something.
Labour is lost. It is lost in England, lost in Scotland and looking more lost in Wales by the day. The Corbyn project completed the gentrification that began under New Labour and now we have lost touch with the language, culture and priorities of the working class. 2/5
How are there queer people defending the original tweet?
Joking about weaponsing homophobia and then straight up just calling him a faggot in the replies is funny now cause it's someone you disagree with, right ok
My constituents are better than this.
They know what prejudice looks and feels like.
So do I, which is why I’ve stood proudly against Islamophobia as Ilford North’s MP.
🗑️
@Shah_Hussain99
Been sceptical of people saying the election could be like Canada '93 but if there are more polls like this it starts to look more realistic
I'd still say the big difference is in '93 Reform won 52 seats, proportionate to our HoC would be a bit over 100; Reform won't get that
New voting intention (3-4 Jun): this is our first poll carried out under our new methodology, which mirrors that which we use for our MRP
Lab: 40%
Con: 19%
Reform UK: 17%
Lib Dem: 10%
Green: 7%
SNP: 3%
To show what impact the new methodology has had on
Wow, newly formed Denmark Democrats at 11% in their first poll – right-wing anti-immigration party formed by former Venstre minster for immigration Inger Støjberg
Also amazing how far Danish People’s Party fallen – below threshold now!
West Central London Assembly constituency
🔴LAB: 37.7% (+0.4)
🔵CON: 34.2% (-4.6)
🟠LD: 11.7% (+2.2)
🟢GRN: 10.0% (-1.6)
🟣RFM: 6.4% (+5.1)
Second London Assembly constituency that the Conservatives have lost, this time to Labour. First time this constituency has gone Labour.
London results for the first time aren't being broken down by borough and ward level this time unfortunately, due to the change to manual counting
But had a bit of fun and applied the vote share changes in the constituencies to their constituent boroughs to get a rough estimate
PP+Vox seat count has been going up the last few vote drops but has to be said that seems PSOE doing better than expected with 62% counted. PP+Vox really need at least 8 more seats than they have atm to even have a chance of governing which is looking possibly like a stretch rn.
10 out of 14 constituencies declared for the London Assembly list vote and on the current vote share change the Assembly would look like this
🔴LAB: 11 (nc)
🔵CON: 8 (-1)
🟢GRN: 3 (nc)
🟠LD: 2 (nc)
🟣RFM: 1 (+1)
Last seat in D'Hondt allocation is close between Con/Lab
South West London Assembly list vote
🔴LAB: 26.4% (+0.4)
🔵CON: 25.9% (-5.6)
🟠LD: 23.2% (+3.1)
🟢GRN: 9.8% (-1.8)
🟣RFM: 5.8% (+5.0)
Interesting to see the result here without tactical voting considerations
Greens emerge as the runners-up in East and South London seats in Inner London, with a handful of Independent challengers too. Reform runners up further east. Remains Labour/Tory and LibDem/Tory elsewhere.
Some interesting poll Qs in this
One thing is there is more split VIs between Westminster and Mayoral elections in Outer London vs Inner London
Lab lead over Con Westminster
Inner London: +56
Outer London: +31
Khan lead over Hall
Inner London: +50 (-6)
Outer London: +5 (-26)
Sadiq Khan holds a 19pt lead with 2 weeks until the London mayoral election
Sadiq Khan – Lab: 46% (-3 from Feb)
Susan Hall – Con: 27% (+3)
Zoe Garbett – Green: 9% (=)
Rob Blackie – Lib Dem: 8% (=)
Howard Cox – Reform UK: 6% (-1)
Other: 4% (=)
Build more 𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙚𝙨
Build more 𝙝𝙤𝙨𝙥𝙞𝙩𝙖𝙡𝙨
Rebuild more 𝙨𝙘𝙝𝙤𝙤𝙡𝙨
Build the infrastructure to level up 𝙚𝙫𝙚𝙧𝙮 𝙧𝙚𝙜𝙞𝙤𝙣
Build a stronger 𝙐𝙣𝙞𝙤𝙣
Build a 𝙜𝙧𝙚𝙚𝙣𝙚𝙧 economy
Build a 𝙛𝙖𝙞𝙧𝙚𝙧 society
Build a better 𝙐𝙆
We will
#BuildBackBetter
⤵️
Tory candidate for Ashfield, Lee Anderson, calling for the creation of forced labour camps.
In the last election Tories were 1% behind so he has a strong prospect of becoming an MP.
#GE2019
#forcedlabourcamps
Had a go at making constituency info sheets, perhaps based around the places the party leaders are campaigning (hence Westmorland as my first go).
I like how they've turned out for the most part but not 100% on everything.
@nikicaga
Becuase under the new boundaries both seats would've been won by Labour so that's the comparison, as opposed to who was the MP in the old seat
Worked very hard on this. The website is not as extensive as what I did last year but getting projections at ward level with new boundaries was a much more involved process.
Overall pretty happy with how this has turned out.
We have a new website up for the 2022 London Local Elections with projections for each council!
It is currently suggesting that:
Barnet, Wandsworth, and Westminster: Labour gains from Conservatives
See more at:
#LocalElections2022
@Nassreddin2002
UK: Best got to be 1945, I actually prefer Wilson to Attlee as PM but the scale of the Labour victory and the subsequent post-war transformation of the country is just unrivalled
Worst I think is 1979, led to Thatcher’s Britain and the worst excesses of Labour infighting imo
I know this is crazy to boomer legislators but phones can acc be useful learning tools in certain situations
If kids are using them improperly just confiscate them for the lesson, worked for the entirety of my time at secondary school
Keir was in Finchley and Golders Green in North London this morning.
An interesting three-way marginal here, LibDems have never typically been competitive here but they surged in 2019 with Luciana Berger as their candidate.
Went Labour for the first time in the Blair years.
City & East mayoral
🔴Khan: 55.9% (+8.4)
🔵Hall: 19.8% (-7.8)
🟢Garbett: 6.8% (+0.3)
🟠Blackie: 3.9% (+1.1)
Biggest swing so far to Khan I believe. Also I think the first place where the Green vote has gone up, barely.
@EuropeElects
Funny hypothetical if Labour wanted to avoid relying on SNP (and based on 2019 results in NI)
Working majority figure is actually 320 because of non-voting MPs (Sinn Fein, Speakers and Deputy Speakers - of which one is a Labour MP)
So of voting MPs:
Lab+LD+Green+SDLP = 320
:)
today the gop remember how innocent demonstrators were killed by the chinese government
so that they can use the same tactics against peaceful demonstrators in the us
Today, we remember the scores of innocent demonstrators killed by the Chinese Gov’t 31 years ago at Tiananmen Square for speaking out against the totalitarian regime.
We must hold the CCP accountable for suppressing freedom & for their malign activity that continues today.
Been having a go at illustrating boundary changes in London. Not the most straightforward thing to do but think I’ve settled on something like this.
Has more stuff than is necessary maybe but shows everything I think is important.
Last mayoral election the Tories lied about Sadiq introducing a charge to enter greater london by car I think it was
This time they're lying about him introducing pay-per-mile
They just can't help themselves
🚨 London drivers face a new pay-per-mile charge! But there's a choice.
👉 Vote for our GLA candidate
@JulieredmondW
and stand with
@Don_WilliamsHH
for a fair deal on our roads.
📸 Don't miss our snapshots that drive the point home!
#VoteSmart
and keep
#LondonDriving
In Canada, Reform immediately supplanted the Tories as the main right-wing party in both votes and seats. V unlikely that in the UK Reform could get more seats than the Tories which puts them in a more vulnerable position long-term.
Also should be noted how disastrous this is for the far-right PS, they had been polling at 14% to 16%. Finland really is the shock result of the night, and it's for a good reason!
Apparently this is a contrarian take but I'm not particularly outraged by this like I've seen others are. It's kind of a bizarre thing to do sure but it's a closed list, people voted to get 3 Green seats, not for any individuals.
NEW:
Green Party London Assembly Member Sian Berry has resigned her seat just 3 days after winning it.
She is also the Green Party's candidate for Brighton Pavilion in the General Election.
I think the bigger problem really is how the media covers polls, especially with so many MRPs. In the media it really often feels like an MRP gets treated as "this is what is going to happen wow" and there is not really enough about the margin of error and variation between polls
Plaid Cymru launching their campaign in Bangor, which is the kind of place that highlights their challenge w the new boudnaries
Bangor used to be in a PC held seat, Arfon, which has been abolished in the new boundaries and is now in a Labour-Tory marginal Bangor Aberconwy
@Nassreddin2002
I think FiveThirtyEight explained it as partly by candidate quality mattering more in Senate elections than for the House.
GOP have been nominating insane or otherwise unpopular candidates who are expected to underperform and there’s only a limited number of competitive states.