Last tweet about $COIN 4Q earnings,
Showdown begins
- they wanted to see crypto dying, we prevailed
- they wanted Coinbase to go bankrupt, we have 5b+ in cash reserves
- they wanted to limit our growth, we grew outside of US
- they choked us, we got floodgate open on ETF
WE WON
Done. $COIN 1Q final estimate
$1.58B Rev, $4.20 EPS (lol love it on April 1st)
Things to look for in the next quarter:
1.) base revenue is about $1-2m a day and it’s growing fast. This could be an $135m opportunity in 2Q
2.) Perp market landed in 26.3m in 1Q, could be 70M in 2Q
$COIN earning report digestion.
1.) retail coming back
2.) retail learned to use advance trade, this is good for consumer
3.) expense control is in check
4.) haven’t accounted for FASB change (worth $2.1 EPS)
Good luck getting $COIN under $250 soon.
Political change
1.) ETH approval
2.) SEC v. Coinbase case drop
3.) coinbase starts to offer perp to US retail client
4.) base scaling
5.) gas and oil market expansion
6.) project diamond
7.) Circle IPO
8.) payment/loan industry disruptor
Done. $COIN 1Q final estimate
$1.58B Rev, $4.20 EPS (lol love it on April 1st)
Things to look for in the next quarter:
1.) base revenue is about $1-2m a day and it’s growing fast. This could be an $135m opportunity in 2Q
2.) Perp market landed in 26.3m in 1Q, could be 70M in 2Q
Thank you finance dept. of
@coinbase
, you calc’ed fair value for me. So I don’t have to.
$COIN
1.) FASB rule change would allow Coinbase to record $780m in unrealized gain. (Fair value - cost basis). This is about $3.25 EPS as of 12.31.23
2.) Coinbase bought the dip in crypto
ETHEREUM SURVIVES THE SEC.
Today we’re happy to announce a major win for Ethereum developers, technology providers, and industry participants: the Enforcement Division of the SEC has notified us that it is closing its investigation into Ethereum 2.0.
This means that the SEC
FIT21 passing (likely these house dems definitely talk to their senate dems friends) meaning $COIN case will be dropped as SEC will no longer be able overreach into crypto commodity landscape.
$COIN case drop isn’t priced in.
Coinbase transaction volume
2023
Jul: 29.19b
Aug: 26.59
Sep: 20.42b
Oct: 31.16b
Nov: 50.4b
Dec: 69.92b
2024
Jan (11 days): 34.51b (already exceeded Oct 2023)
If we extrapolate for whole month of Jan.
34.51b/11x31x(1 - 10%conservatism) we get about 87.53b (25% MoM)
$COIN
🔥📣ANNOUNCEMENT:
It's an honor to reveal that I have joined
@Coinbase
as one of their Ambassadors.
Using the link below, Coinbase will share some of their fee revenues from each trade.
🔗
#Sponsored
$COIN Earning is tomorrow, everyone including myself is trying to estimate as close as possible. So we zoomed in and tracking volume, asset price and etc.
I think it’s good time to step back and look at how Coinbase has evolved from 2021 to 2023
Analysts have revised up $COIN earning consensus last week, yet still very far apart from what citizen analysts are projecting,
Wall Street Consensus:
$1.31B $0.98 EPS
Duckstimate:
$1.58B $4.20 EPS
Many CT analysts have produced similar revenue projections.
Okay, I’m done digesting this earning report. As a shareholder, i’m so proud of you all. Thanks to
@coinbase
employees working so diligently, delivering this S tier earning. On behalf of all investors, we thank you!
Time to shitpost and celebrate! 😆 🎊
$COIN 2Q estimates coming tomorrow 👀
The volume has been average, nothing too exciting but it is all about the next 12 months. So I will provide a base estimate and optimistic estimate.
Lol
(Base +Optimistic)
(🔵+🔴)
This week
@base
had $1.15m in fee. If we normalize this growth and call it $1.0m on average, then base is running at $54m annualized revenue. With this spectacular growth of 150% CAGR, and you put a 20ps ratio. This is only worth $1B? $OP has mkt cap of $15B.
$COIN is too cheap.
One under appreciated $COIN value proposition is that
@cbventures
has currently 400+ deals. When you invest in Coinbase, you are letting the brilliant VC team picks best of the best mini crypto projects which can potentially turn into a unicorn.
Facts
I don’t want to create FOMO, I do not recommend chasing stock but we now reasonably consider this by EOY 2024. To mid 2025 for $COIN
1.) crypto higher, so cb resume printing 💰
2.) SEC lawsuit drop
3) moody upgrade Coinbase bond to investment grade over time
4.) SPY inclusion
New projection is in for $COIN
In March, we have $84.91b volume for the first 14 days. We have 11 weekdays + 6 weekends left. So I assumed $5b and $2.5b per day respectively. This gets us to $298.5b in 1Q2024.
I assumed 20% retail, we could see 21%. Take Rate down (expected)
Just to elaborate how cheap $COIN is valued at
$BNB running at $83B valuation. Did about 600m volume yesterday. Holders has no equity rights/claim to
@binance
$COIN valued at $54B valuation, base did 500m volume yesterday. Shareholders have claims to the whole package.
Analyst: tell me about base
CB MGMT: it was born less than a year ago, running at 150-200M revenue a year
Analyst: how is cash burn for this new product
CB MGMT: it’s running at 97% margin.
Analyst: I have some technical difficulties, say again
CB MGMT: 97%
Analyst: 1.)what
Listening to the $COIN call and analyst questions and answers. So far so good.
But..(yep there is always a but)
We are not getting a lot of in-depth question on blockchain, enforcing my belief they don’t understand coinbase.
Otherwise wouldn’t we get some good questions??
.
@brian_armstrong
: ”We got 52m Americans who have used crypto, I think we can get at least 1m American to vote for pro crypto candidates.”
Well, never underestimate our determination! Let’s target 5m, we are stronger together!
#Standwithcrypto
@standwithcrypto
I’m gonna keep depositing $USDC on
@coinbase
and keep complaining about not getting a payment option for my mortgage & utilities bills until my size is big enough that team actually makes it happen for all of us.
#CoinbaseToBeMyBank
😊😊😊😊😊
Should I resume bull posting? Sentiment bad enough right? Alright guys! Someone, bought $51m coin $220 call option with break even price of $242.9 expiring July 19th.
$COIN
Maybe he is just a gambler with no knowledge whatsoever 😘
I help my brother manage his small crypto equity related account for fun. Do you guys think he should at least take me out for a nice dinner?
$COIN
Saturday casual bragging.
C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N B A S E C O I N
Analyst: tell me about base
CB MGMT: it was born less than a year ago, running at 150-200M revenue a year
Analyst: how is cash burn for this new product
CB MGMT: it’s running at 97% margin.
Analyst: I have some technical difficulties, say again
CB MGMT: 97%
Analyst: 1.)what
I bought more $COIN at $206 that’s BEFORE $ETH etf news and SEC dropped their intent to sue ethereum.
You now can buy more at $220. Pretty good deal btw.
(I also don’t see any $COIN bull left on CT, or trader calling for $300 minimum, TBH we are almost there!)
Update on $COIN 1Q2024 earnings. We are looking golden. In next week, I will update for 1.) final volume 2.) FASB impact on where crypto market cap lands on the month 3.)
@base
revenue update and 4.) tax provision.
$1.58b revenue and $3.90 eps before tax provision.
Coinbase is fundamentally worth at least 2x as much as when it first IPO’ed. Few understands the fundamental of base and smart wallet.
$COIN
I don’t know when we go up, but once we do move, we are going much higher than $280. Stay spot and sleep comfy.
Yesterday I gave my nephew $2,000 as a reward for getting very good grade at school, so he can also start saving in crypto. He is still underage, so the account is opened by my sister in law. I went over for lunch and my nephew told me to post this. He said he made 86 bucks 😅
This is usual/much larger inflow than even back in Nov/Dec 2023. $COIN does the market really know something we don’t? (SEC v. Coinbase case decision???)
Speculation is killing me and I have my bottle of champagne ready.
I just realized this is the first quarter coming out of the bear market (volume was lowest in 3Q) and we are already super pumped about this $COIN earning result.
😅😅😅
This speaks volume.
Not surprised to see
@coinbase
expanding into oil and gold trading. Literally anything can be traded on the blockchain as long as they have obtained the license, registration and being compliant and safe for clients.
As people celebrate $COIN mooning, it’s important to thank
@coinbase
team members on making it thru the bear market and keeps on building. All the strength of this company is built piece by piece by everyone working there. Thank them.
@brian_armstrong
@emiliemc
@iampaulgrewal
seems like someone is trying to hack into my X account.
Just for future reference, I have a good paying day time job, I won’t take advertisement, I won’t do airdrop, any partnership or announcement is fake. All my contents are free to read.
Stay safe.
😐😐😐
I pledge not to use any protocols which don’t stand behind
@Uniswap
I’m tired of seeing
@SECGov
picking us off one by one, if we don’t unite together to fight against SEC, you or your protocols don’t deserve my $ETH
#StandWithUni
I’m sure all of you know at this point how beautiful
@coinbase
is positioned, just in case if you don’t know. Please see below
1.) consistent inflow to $BTC
2.) $ETH showing you can build many use cases and enhance the internet experience
$COIN is the only ecosystem play.
NEWS: Nancy Pelosi may support the Republican, industry-backed crypto bill hitting the House floor this week, in defiance of senior Democrats on the relevant committees.
What does low fee mean for
@base
?
1.) Replicate the user experience of
@Visa
@Mastercard
@AmericanExpress
2.) they will lower fee to compete with ethereum after Dencun (
@base
@Optimism
)
3.) market cap REDISTRIBUTION of combined $1T valuation
$COIN will get a slice of that $1T
Updated my $COIN model for Q1 as of now. this is crypto, volume and price action can swing in both direction rapidly. There is still uncertainty on how FASB rule will impact on reporting. So I made 2 versions. Version B is letting coinbase to record gains since 1/1/2024.
Enjoy.
When
@BlackRock
amend the $ETH etf with staking components. You can consider staking lawsuit in SEC being tossed out already.
Very bullish for $COIN. No need for discovery. Lol
I have been getting lots of messages on locking profit on $COIN, I can’t decide for you but I am happy to payout some facts. Much has changed since.
July $115 <> Nov $115
1. Base launched
2. Crypto mkt cap 1.4t vs. 1.0t
3. Perp launched
4. XRP won
5. Competition (CZ out)
Judge Failla says if token is a security in Coinbase case then essential everything is a security. This is what
@iampaulgrewal
has been saying for MONTHS.
Base case 🔵
- 20% reduction in trading Rev
- 3% reduction in service Rev due to lower $ETH staking commission.
- helped by
@base
sequencer fee
- $1.35B Rev, $0.87 EPS
Above is priced in by Wall Street
Optimistic case 🔴
- trading rebound due to $ETH ETF
- $1.52B Rev, $1.44 EPS
$COIN 2Q estimates coming tomorrow 👀
The volume has been average, nothing too exciting but it is all about the next 12 months. So I will provide a base estimate and optimistic estimate.
Lol
(Base +Optimistic)
(🔵+🔴)
This is THE correction indeed 😛 from the peak.
$BTC - 15.1% 🥈
$ETH - 8.7% 🥇
$COIN - 33.4% 🥉
$MSTR - 34.4%
$MARA - 48.7%
$RIOT - 45.1%
$HUT - 62.6%
$CLSK - 48.7%
$HIVE - 44.4%
We are either done, or very close to being done.
Bear sees $37,000 $BTC so we shall see.
Big congrats again for
@CoinbaseIntExch
team.
I see today we go above $3b in 24H volume.
Just for contexts on how fast this team is growing! In the whole month of January, we did $7.25b in volume. Now we do $3b a day. That’s right! ONE DAY!!!
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
Cc
@edkeonl
Coinbase 1Q earning is approximately 14 trading days away (5/8’ish). I am expecting the management to shill the duck out of
@base
on top of their fabulous 1Q financial result.
14 days isn’t a lot for many fund managers to position properly without showing volume spike.
$COIN
I had a 10 years old 401k account with
@Vanguard_Group
from my prior employer, I never felt the need to switch, but I will be moving to
@Fidelity
. Thanks for blocking my freedom to participate in
@BlackRock
‘s $IBIT.
I have 8 years worth of 401K savings at
@Vanguard_Group
from my time as an employee at Google.
I will be rolling over these funds to
@Fidelity
.
Vanguard's paternalistic blocking of Bitcoin ETFs does not fit in with my investment philosophy.
I strongly believe if we can get this right. it wouldn’t be impossible for $COIN to become the next FAANG as blockchain can improve global financial system for your own benefit.
Please join us, participate and reshape the future.
Coinbase 2023 has been amazing
Cc -
@brian_armstrong
@emiliemc
@iampaulgrewal
@jessepollak
Jan
Coinbase founder Story
Self-service asset recovery tool.
February
Push for USDC adoption.
Base announcement.
Crypto435.
Coinbase Venture invests into Alongside and Term Labs.
- ETF bought in $12b net inflow
- incredibly positive for
@Coinbase
as trading volumes are up in spot
- ETF not cannibalizing trading revenue.
- coinbase not pursuing bank license because factional reserve is not the goal
- coinbase is at the center of this new paradigm shift
Aren’t we glad that $COIN has $5.7b cash on the balance sheet, Free cash flow positive at the depth of bear market. Most compliant and secured crypto exchange and base & perp market still growing fast? Yep, coinbase is financially strong as a growth company.
Just recorded a Rivian $RIVN earnings video. I'll post below when it's up but here are the takeaways:
1. Rivian is in TROUBLE. Net cash will be gone by the end of 2024 and Georgia will still be at least a year away.
2. The conf. call was the most depressing I've ever heard.
Spot Vol update for
@coinbase
:
2023
Oct: 31.16b
Nov: 50.4b
Dec: 69.92b
4Q23: 151.4
2024
Jan: 75.58b
Feb: 72.83b
Mar(MTD):55.56b (9days)
If we hit $140-150b volume for Mar, I wil be looking for $1.40-1.45b 1Q24 revenue for upcoming earnings.
🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
$COIN
Spot Vol update for
@coinbase
:
2023
Oct: 31.16b
Nov: 50.4b
Dec: 69.92b
4Q23: 151.4
2024
Jan: 75.58b
Feb: 72.83b
Mar(MTD):19.16b (4days)
1Q24: 223.4 (47.5% QoQ growth)
I had $75b volume target for Mar in my projection model. (25.5% of target, while only 13% days are in)
$COIN
Soon to close (sell) another house I acquired back in 2012 for dirt cheap after years of rental income and appreciation. 700% in 12 years in real estate is huge.
Reason for selling? Rent doesn’t even generate enough yield when compared to 5.55% $USDC after tax and deductions.
I’m raising my own $COIN price target to $400 based on $6.5B revenue and 15 Ps or $97.5b valuation.
I am my own inverse indicator, feel free to take me as your top signal.
For my defense, I resisted on raising my $300PT for 4 months now, finally gave in.
@JustInverseIt