Former Ambassador & Asst. Secretary of State. Author, “Africa, You Have a Friend in Washington” (2023). Media & speaking engagements: press
@cohenonafrica
.com.
My latest book, “Africa, You Have a Friend in Washington: An American Diplomat's Adventures in Sub-Saharan Africa” is available now. My thanks to DACOR and
@ADSTnews
for hosting the launch celebration!
Find more info & where to purchase on my website:
In
#Ethiopia
, Africa Union mediators apparently fail to understand that peace in Tigray cannot include the survival of the
#TPLF
as a viable political entity. During their control of power power in Addis for 40 years, the TPLF was corrupt, authoritarian, and tribalist.
It is not surprising that Ethiopian regions are sending troops to support the government against the Tigray rebels. These very rebels, formerly known as TPLF, controlled all of
#Ethiopia
from 1991 to 2018 as a corrupt authoritarian regime.
I hereby declare that what is being perpetrated in Tigray right now is an act of deliberate genocide, and all those involved will be held accountable.
#Ethiopia
There is no turning back. Those responsible for using mass famine as a weapon of war in Tigray province of
#Ethiopia
will be pursued by the International Criminal Court, without exception.
In the eastern DRC, the M-23 rebels will soon be defeated. It is time for them to either accept government amnesty or self-exile to the neighboring countries that sponsor them.
The horrible ethnic and cultural genocide currently taking place in Tigray, and to some extent in Oromia, is designed to return
#Ethiopia
to a permanent hegemony in which certain ethnic groups dominate all others, democracy and human rights be damned.
#Ethiopia
PM Abiy Ahmed's Nobel Peace Prize should be revoked. Unprecedented, but definitely called for in this case, having rejected political solutions in Tigray, and in view of the atrocities and unnecessary warfare perpetrated by his army against his own citizens.
If it is true that the people of Tigray province in
#Ethiopia
are being deliberately starved to death, those responsible will not escape being held accountable. I will personally guarantee it. I know who you are.
In
#Ethiopia
, the
#TPLF
, (and Washington) should be under no illusions.
#Eritrea
and Addis will not end the war in Tigray until the TPLF ceases to exist as a political entity.
In
#Ethiopia
, it is time for the TPLF to accept the inevitable. The Abiy government has overwhelming military superiority. To save the Tigrayan people further hardship, the TPLF must cease to exist, and its leadership depart into exile. Exile under amnesty.
Prime Minister Abiy said he wanted to push past ethnic divisions and unite
#Ethiopia
with his Prosperity Party. With his war in Tigray, Abiy has instead stimulated ethnic nationalism and diminished prospects for Ethiopian unity and prosperity.
In
#Ethiopia
, the Derg could not defeat the TPLF during 18 years of war. Why does P.M. Abiy think he can succeed where Mengistu failed? A national dialogue leading to a true federal constitution is urgently needed.
#Ethiopia
's civil war, centered in Tigray province, can no longer be ended internally. Outside mediation is necessary. For historical reasons, the US is in the best position to mediate. Newly arrived Secretary of State Blinken should schedule this for early consideration.
Unable to conquer the Tigray province by armed force,
#Ethiopia
's regime now wants to starve it into submission. The international community needs to do whatever is necessary to deliver food, including by air drop if necessary.
The detention of hundreds of Tigrayan Ethiopians living in the capital Addis Ababa constitutes proof that the government is not just using military force against political rebels, but is waging war against an entire ethnic nation.
Message for Isaias. Important to remove your troops from Tigray rapidly. If International Criminal Court becomes involved, as seems inevitable, you could be the first target.
In Ethiopia, Tigray is no longer a war zone. The international community can safely bring in humanitarian assistance. The Eritrean military has achieved their goal. No more TPLF. They should also depart.
#Ethiopia
Prime Minister Abiy needs to take very seriously President Biden's message that will soon be conveyed by his closest confidant in the U.S. Congress, Senator Coons of Delaware. Biden is deeply troubled by increasingly reliable reports of ethnic cleansing in Tigray.
The threat of man-made famine is increasing in
#Ethiopia
's Tigray province. Should the U.S. now consider a massive food aid drop by air, operating from Djibouti? In my view, there may be no other way to save tens of thousands of lives threatened by the Abiy regime's aid blockade.
Believable report that the Ethiopian leadership has vowed to "wipe out Tigrayans for 100 years" resembles the 1994 Rwanda genocide. As then, the world community is currently avoiding their eyes, and is refraining from bold action to save lives. Shame.
In
#Ethiopia
, the best that the
#TPLF
can expect from an African Union peace process will be the dissolution of the movement and amnesty for the leadership. The cost of rebuilding the Tigray state will be formidable.
In
#Ethiopia
, the U.S. should concentrate on persuading the TPLF that after 29 years in power in Addis, they are rejected by the national population, and that peace is possible only after they dissolve their movement, and accept amnesty.
By initiating total armed warfare against Tigray, with the objective of preserving a unified Ethiopian state, PM Abiy is instead moving toward the disintegration of
#Ethiopia
through the mass killing of civilians, and the resultant unleashing of ethnic hatred nationwide.
In
#Ethiopia
, in addition to the tragedy of Tigray, a group of Oromo political prisoners on hunger strikes are currently near death. Nobel laureate Abiy appears determined to use whatever force is necessary to establish a new authoritarian regime.
Ethiopian P.M. Abiy is fooling himself if he believes his inexperienced army can defeat the battle hardened TPLF military, even with Eritrean support. To keep
#Ethiopia
unified, it must be truly decentralized through unprecedented constitutional dialogue.
For the U.S. Special Envoy to
#Ethiopia
: The nation cannot achieve internal peace as long as it is dominated by one ethnic group. The only path to peace is through an unprecedented decentralized federal system. Unfortunately, P.M. Abiy is now envisaging the opposite.
#Ethiopia
federal government's war to subdue the TPLF rulers of Tigray is increasingly becoming a war of revenge. Revenge wars are always humanitarian disasters. I urge PM Abiy and Debretsion to agree to a ceasefire and negotiations mediated by a neutral third party.
En
#DRC
, le Pasteur Mukuna a saisi la justice contre l'ancien Président Joseph Kabila, avec 10 dossiers très graves. Au Département d'Etat américain, j'ai eu la nette impression qu'il existait une sérieuse volonté d'appuyer un tribunal congolais pour le cas précité.
Important to note that the mass killings currently taking place in
#Ethiopia
have several causes besides the war, including widespread ethnic hatred exacerbated by climate change's destruction of farmland. In my view, Ethiopia's government is losing control of public order.
My new book, US Policy Toward Africa: Eight Decades of Realpolitik, is now available. I draw on both the documentary record and my personal experiences as a diplomat to analyze how US-
#Africa
policy has evolved through fourteen US administrations.
Amb. Jeffrey Feltman, new U.S. Special Envoy to the Horn of Africa, should assign highest priority to Tigray, where foreign forces are committing ethnic genocide by killing the young men and raping the young women to spread non-Tigrinya genes.
The TPLF waged a totally unjustified and destructive war against
#Eritrea
during 1998-2002. For that reason, Eritrea will not cease its operations in Tigray until the TPLF is fully dissolved and disbursed.
During upcoming
#Ethiopia
-Tigray mediation talks in
#SouthAfrica
, key question will be continued existence of
#TPLF
as ruling political entity in Tigray. Addis is unlikely to offer more than amnesty and safe passage out.
The French and German foreign ministers about to visit
#Ethiopia
must arrange for the
#TPLF
to be dissolved for peace to be consolidated. In this regard, they should also visit
#Eritrea
.
Peace discussions in
#Ethiopia
do not include
#Eritrea
and their military contingent in Tigray. Eritrea will not withdraw troops until it is assured that the
#TPLF
no longer exists as a viable political entity, end of combat notwithstanding.
Biden administration's removal of AGOA privileges from
#Ethiopia
may interfere with the peace process by appearing to place the U.S. in the TPLF's camp. The administration should focus on mediation, and not cause further damage to the Ethiopian economy and harm to Ethiopians.
Abiy must accept that he cannot win total victory in Tigray. The U.S. is in the best position to act as a neutral mediator. With foreign arms pouring in and a dire humanitarian crisis, President Biden should take the initiative for peace in
#Ethiopia
.
Eritrea's withdrawal of its army from the Tigray Province in northern Ethiopia is wise. With cooperation from the Ethiopian government, Eritrea is no longer threatened by the TPLF. Eritrea can now concentrate on exploiting the wealth of the Red Sea.
#DRC
President Tshisekedi will address the Congolese nation Friday October 23. I encourage him to announce an end to the fruitless alliance with Kabila, and the beginning of a new coalition that will bring visible benefits to his people.
With food shortages leaving Mekele on the brink of a man-made famine, the U.S. should seriously consider air dropping food to save millions from starvation. There is precedent (i.e. Somalia in 1992.)
It is now clear that
#Ethiopia
's regime cannot defeat the TPLF in Tigray despite massive destruction of population and infrastructure. Incoming Biden Administration should offer to mediate with the objective of establishing the nation's historically first genuine federal system.
#Eritrea
is playing a major role in the war in Tigray, and will have a lot to say about making peace. So, why is the U.S. not engaging constructively with Asmara?
In
#Ethiopia
, the largest ethnic group, the Oromo, have been excluded from political power for generations. Now, the heavily armed Oromo Liberation Front will assure that the Oromo voice will finally be heard.
U.S. suspension of AGOA for
#Ethiopia
,
#Mali
and
#Guinea
is an unfortunate politicization of trade. This sanction will hurt people in these countries more than their governments. Another reason to negotiate a reciprocal free trade agreement between the U.S. and all of Africa.
In the eastern
#DRC
, citizens are correct in rejecting a proposed East African peacekeeping force. Destabilization of northeast DRC is originating in countries to the DRC's east. The DRC military alone can solve the problem provided necessary reforms are introduced.
In
#Ethiopia
, the TPLF rebels in Tigray should accept Prime Minister Abiy's offer of "discussions" that could result in ceasefire, safe passage out, and amnesty in return for disarming and dissolution. Continuation of combat is futile.
Disappointed that
#Ethiopia
PM – and Nobel Peace Prize recipient – Abiy has chosen to go to war against Tigray instead of choosing dialogue to write a new constitution that will allow maximum self-determination for all the ethnic nations in an unprecedented true federal system.
Despite the unilateral ceasefire,
#Ethiopia
's government continues to apply economic pressure to prevent Tigray from declaring independence. This coercive approach will not succeed. The federal govt should instead call a national dialogue to establish a new, truly federal system.
In
#Ethiopia
, the deaths and displacement of several hundred thousand citizens in Tigray, as well as the serious instability in Oromia, make it impossible to accomplish a valid election as early as next June 6.
The war in Tigray has become a total humanitarian disaster, with reports of civilian killings, ethnic cleansing, and numerous other abuses. The TPLF will not stop fighting because they expect, correctly, that
#Ethiopia
's federal troops will kill them summarily.
#DRC
President Tshisekedi has established an anti-corruption agency. This initiative merits full support from the int'l community, especially in the search for, and return of, stolen government revenue that has been hidden in foreign bank accounts by the previous administration.
Since
#Ethiopia
's armed forces are understandably reluctant to risk their lives fighting their Tigrean brothers, the government is resorting to economic measures against civilians to subdue Tigrean resistance to rule from Addis, including blocking food shipments.
Congratulations to the English speaking people of west
#Cameroon
on the anniversary of their independence from the U.K. on October 1, 1960. May their language and culture endure.
#Ethiopia
's designation of the TPLF (Tigray) and the OLA (Oromia) as terrorist organizations is ill advised. Instead, the tendency should be toward amnesty and reconciliation. Ethiopia appears to be drifting to its traditional curse: hegemony of a single ethnic group.
#Ethiopia
PM Abiy sees the complete destruction of the TPLF as the only possible end to the Tigray conflict – extremely unlikely given the current military situation. The U.S. should intervene to persuade Abiy that this goal is unrealistic, and to pursue a negotiated agreement.
TPLF call for political solution to Tigray war opens the door to a national solution that every central government in history has rejected, to their detriment: a truly decentralized federal system for
#Ethiopia
.
As
@washingtonpost
argues forcefully today, starvation is being used as a mass weapon of war against the people of Tigray province in Ethiopia. The US and its allies should consider food aid via airdrop. It is the only hope.
For the first time in my professional life, I am nominating someone for the Nobel Peace Prize: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. If he brings multiparty democracy to
#Ethiopia
, the entire Horn of Africa will be transformed for the better.
A Son Excellence Thambwe Mwamba, Président du Sénat, Démocratique République du Congo. Pourquoi as-tu refusé la demande raisonnable de Madame la Sénatrice Kitenge? Tu as oublié ce que nous avons appris ensemble dans le MPR: "Servir, OUI. Se servir, NON."
#RDC
#Ethiopia
and
#Eritrea
should both take President Biden's statement condemning war crimes in Tigray as a serious warning. It is not worth losing all international cooperation to capture or kill TPLF leaders while killing innocent Tigrayans.
French President Macron's call for peace talks in
#Ethiopia
's Tigray presents a dilemma for PM Abiy. Accept talks, and accord legitimacy to the TPLF's control of Tigray. Refuse talks, and accord validity to accusations that government is engaging in pre-genocide ethnic cleansing.
In
#DRC
, Senate President Thambwe Mwamba, with his proposal for a National Congress, is concentrating on how to weaken President Tshisekedi, when he should be concentrating instead on how to reduce poverty for the Congolese people.
The DRC presidential election held on December 20, 2023, was marked by irregularities and fraud, according to the Catholic Bishops (CENCO). President Tshisekedi should, therefore, not be inaugurated, as his presidency would clearly be illegitimate.
The U.S. should not remove
#Ethiopia
from the AGOA free trade program because 150,000 Ethiopian workers stand to lose their jobs, thereby substantially increasing poverty without contributing to an end of murderous conflict.
In welcoming the TPLF decision to retreat to Tigray, the U.S. government's call for "broader diplomacy" is essentially a call for a national dialogue among all ethnic groups – the only way for
#Ethiopia
to establish the durable stability which has historically been unattainable.
#Ethiopia
's many civil wars have all been caused by authoritarian centralized control of power by a single ethnic group. The time has come for a truly decentralized federal system with separation of powers. The "federal" system under TPLF control for 28 years was completely fake.
#DRC
President Tshisekedi appears to be consolidating political power in an effort to implement his reform program. He merits full international support.
#DRC
President Kabila has agreed to leave power after the election. Bravo Rais! Now, scrap voting machines, clean up fake voter names, and admit Moise.
Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki will not order his troops to leave their positions inside
#Ethiopia
's Tigray province until he is sure that the
#TPLF
will not arise from the ashes and constitute a new threat.
In
#Ethiopia
, government arrests and clamp down on Tigrayans who happen to live in Addis reflects growing panic. Reminds of desperate Mengistu expelling Eritreans who had never lived in
#Eritrea
in 1990-1991 war.
U.S. Secretary of State Blinken is right to call for
#Ethiopia
to stop fighting in Tigray. Further warfare will not meaningfully change the status quo – it will result only in more ethnic cleansing & civilian deaths, while setting back the entire country's progress by decades.
A significant development for the DRC: The prestigious Canadian Partnership for International Justice has petitioned the International Criminal Court to investigate former President Kabila and his high level associates for possible crimes against humanity.
The state of
#Ethiopia
's civil war indicates that Tigray will never again accept integration into a centralized national power structure. A truly federal governing system, with a measure of real self-determination for all states, appears both visible and viable.
Best solution for
#Ethiopia
is a truly decentralized federal system, in which Ethiopia remains unified but each ethnic nation has the self-determination they desire. If Abiy wins militarily, international community should still press for this outcome through political dialogue.
Due to humanitarian disaster in Tigray,
#Ethiopia
government's image is deteriorating, and it risks being denied debt relief. It should now declare it has achieved its military objective, declare ceasefire, and organize a neutral interim regime in Tigray to begin reconciliation.
The German and French foreign ministers visiting
#Ethiopia
's Tigray Province to consolidate the peace agreement, should also visit
#Eritrea
in recognition of its significant role in the conflict, and to assure its support.
#DRC
President
#Kabila
: Excellency, your senior advisors are very stupid. By preventing Jean-Pierre Bemba from entering his personal residence, you are increasing his popularity 2% for every hour. Tell Kalev Mutond and the Governor of Kinshasa they are acting like children.
U.S. government reports of Eritrean soldiers in Tigray supporting Ethiopian government efforts to defeat the TPLF army are plausible. For the Eritreans, anything less than the total defeat of their longtime TPLF enemy is unacceptable.
New American Secretary of State Blinken's first official act was to ask
#Ethiopia
's Prime Minister Abiy to allow humanitarian assistance to enter war-devastated Tigray. If he refuses to heed this call, Abiy risks becoming a pariah within the western group of nations.
High priority for Ambassador Feltman, U.S. special envoy to the Horn of Africa, should be the impending mass famine in Tigray, where thousands of farmers, displaced by war, will not be able to plant crops in time for the June rains. Access to Eritrean ports will be vital.
The
#DRC
lost its AGOA free trade benefits during the
#Kabila
government over terrible regime governance and human rights abuses. In view of President Tshisekedi's progress in democratization, AGOA should now be restored to the DRC. I am supporting this process in Washington.
In the
#DRC
today, Monday, civilian protestors blocked entry to the parliament building in reaction to FCC (Kabila) criticism of President Tshisekedi. This is a clear indication that the Congolese "street" fully supports Felix.
Failed coup in
#Ethiopia
's Amhara state was an attempt by ethnic nationalists to restore Amhara hegemony over all of Ethiopia that existed for several centuries prior to 1991. That dream is now permanently dead.
If
#Ethiopia
P.M. Abiy has truly won his war against the TPLF, his major challenge now will be to establish a real unprecedented federal system, in which Tigray and all the other states will have authentic self-determination.
Continued tensions between
#Sudan
and
#Ethiopia
over disputed territory, as well as the Ethiopian Renaissance dam, guarantee that the TPLF insurgents in Tigray will not suffer shortages of arms.
#Eritrea
fought a long war against the TPLF when the latter was in power in Addis between 1991 and 2018. Not surprised, therefore, to see Eritrea mobilizing again in order to destroy the TPLF's very existence in Tigray for good.
#Ethiopia
Prime Minister's acknowledgement of atrocities in Tigray is welcome. Instead of trying to kill every remaining TPLF leader, he should now declare victory, stop the war, ask the Eritrean military to depart, and initiate national reconciliation.
I am receiving horrifying reports of crimes against humanity being committed by
#Cameroon
military in northwest and southwest Cameroon English-speaking regions. Why are there no international journalists reporting on this tragic situation?
I first met Etienne Tshisekedi in 1968 when I was the U.S. Chargé d'affaires in Kinshasa. I consider him to be the father of democracy in the
#DRC
. May his political legacy be fulfilled, and may his soul rest in peace.
#Ethiopia
Prime Minister Abiy's decision to use military force in Tigray to subdue local political leadership has opened the door to ethnic score settling throughout Ethiopia, the most recent example consisting of tribal massacres in Benishangul-Gumuz.
Ethiopian civil war has become a "fight to the death." Only the UN Security Council now has the power to bring about an honorable cease fire and negotiation.
U.S. report that Eritrean forces remain in Tigray is undoubtedly accurate.
#Eritrea
cannot feel secure until TPLF no longer exists in any form. Nevertheless, Eritrean military should depart Tigray as agreed. Further destabilization and human suffering will benefit no one.
The TPLF has unlimited access to foreign arms sources. As a consequence, decisive victory for Abiy's regime is practically impossible. Foreign mediation in
#Ethiopia
is critical to prevent a protracted conflict. The sooner it begins, the better.
Abiy must accept that he cannot win total victory in Tigray. The U.S. is in the best position to act as a neutral mediator. With foreign arms pouring in and a dire humanitarian crisis, President Biden should take the initiative for peace in
#Ethiopia
.
In the wake of this massacre of civilian women and children in Northwest
#Cameroon
's Ntumbo-Ngarbuh quarter, I call on the International Criminal Court to investigate Paul Biya's regime for crimes against humanity.
If accurate, the reports of horrendous atrocities being perpetrated on Tigray civilians by invading armies reflect a malign desire for revenge after thirty years of TPLF centralized rule. These tragedies do not bode well for democracy in
#Ethiopia
.
The initial report of the Ethiopian peace deal says that the Ethiopian Government will take control of Tigray Province, and that the
#TPLF
will effectively cease to exist. Presumably, the TPLF leadership will not face prosecution. Oromia remains problematic.