Chris Said @Chris_Said Twitter profile

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 years

Fire alarms aren't useful because they tell you there's fire. They're useful because they tell you it's socially acceptable to react.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

5 years

I'm biased here, but this is one of the strongest visual illusions I have ever seen. None of the colored lines are moving.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

A short thread on viral lab leaks throughout history: (🧵 1/9)

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

List of prominent Alzheimer’s researchers credibly accused of fraud:🧵 1. Marc Tessier-Lavigne, president of Stanford, co-authored "several" papers with doctored images. When concerns were raised, Marc wanted to “keep it quiet”.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Two years ago this outcome was predictable, but the even still the magnitude of this effect is astounding.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

The highest quality Jupyter notebook I've ever seen was just posted by... <checks notes>... ex-CEO of Instagram, Kevin Systrom? All of us data scientists can hang our heads in shame. h/t ( @seanjtaylor )

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

10 months

We kill 200 million chickens per day for their meat, but also Starship is delayed for three months because seven (7) quail eggs were found charred.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

If this research fraud set back a cure for Alzheimers by on average 10 years, it would have cost us 250 million quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). I'm sorry to use provocative language, but that would put it among history's worst crimes against humanity.

Charles Piller

@cpiller

2 years

Were two separate, major lines of Alzheimer’s research tainted by image fabrication, with far-reaching implications for the field? I take a deep look for @ScienceMagazine 🧵 1/11

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

A rapid test that combines Covid, Flu, and RSV seems useful. Unfortunately it is illegal to sell in the US, so you'll have to fly to Germany.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

Yet another prolific Alzheimer’s researcher accused of flagrant years-long fraud. Impossible to see these cases and not conclude fraud is endemic.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

6 months

I want to learn more about the Scottish woman whose genetic mutation makes her have no pain, fast wound-healing, a sunny disposition, a 0/29 on a Generalized Anxiety Disorder score, and a 0/29 on Depression.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 months

Thread of bad maternal health research that caused needless panic. 1. Breastfeeding was linked to higher offspring IQ. But the effect disappears in sibling control studies (same mother breastfeeds one child but not the other)

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@Chris_Said

1 year

If this research fraud set back a cure for Alzheimers by even a year, it would have cost us 25 million quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). This is comparable to the number of QALYs lost by Americans in World War II.

Review found ‘falsified data’ in Stanford President’s research, colleagues allege

His paper was called “the miracle result.” But it never turned into an Alzheimer’s treatment. Now, four former Genentech senior scientists and executives allege that an internal review in 2011...

stanforddaily.com

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

2. Berislav Zlokovic, a “prolific” fundraiser at USC, co-authored multiple papers with doctored images and pressured underlings to produced preferred outcomes. His papers have been cited 8,400 times. 1,400 patients were about to be tested on his drug.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

New blog post: Double descent in human learning. In machine learning, double descent is a surprising phenomenon where increasing the number of model parameters or epochs can cause test performance to get worse before it gets better. (1/8)

Double descent in human learning

The uncanny resemblance between double descent and a 50 year old theory from psychology

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

3. Hoau-Yan Wang, accused of faking data in papers for almost two decades. A colleague describes the situation as “embarrassing beyond words”. More than 1000 patients have been enrolled in an experiment on his drug.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

4. Sylvain Lesné, accused of doctoring images in a Nature paper on amyloid oligomers. Multiple other papers had doctored images, some “shockingly blatant”. The Nature paper was cited in 2300 scholarly articles and drove multiple wasted followup studies.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

In June 2020 I felt strong social pressure to not question anything about the nature of the ongoing protests. I feel guilty I didn’t say more publicly. There is overwhelming evidence that they drove the homicide spike, mediated by police pullback.

What Caused The 2020 Homicide Spike?

...

www.astralcodexten.com

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

In light of the long history of lab leaks, it astonishes me that there are not more alarms raised about the Global Virome Project, which seeks to characterize 99% of all zoonotic viruses @alisonannyoung @Noahpinion @jimgeraghty @Ayjchan @NellieBowles (9/9)

Global Virome Project

www.globalviromeproject.org

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

5 years

I just wrote a 3-part blog post on optimizing sample sizes in A/B testing. It's kind of a longread, so if you just want the elevator pitch, here's a tweetstorm (1/20):

Optimizing sample sizes in A/B testing, Part I: General summary

Part I: General summary

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

The most damning thing about the 1977 outbreak is this circling of the wagons, which sounds a lot like the initial reaction to the lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

People underappreciate how morally ghastly it is to commit research fraud. By misdirecting years of future research, millions of people die, all so that you can get published in Nature. Few crimes are that bad.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

H1N1 escaped from a lab in 1977 and killed 700,000 people that year. Variants of that strain likely still exist today.

The Long History of Accidental Laboratory Releases of Potential Pandemic Pathogens Is Being Ignored...

Even a cursory look at the record shows that these labs, where ever they exist, have a lot of accidents.

www.independentsciencenews.org

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

@jonlevyBU It's intellectually lazy to take a statement from the opposing side and reframe it as negatively as possible, without acknowledging their substantive claims. There are real social costs to restrictions that they believe outweigh the benefits.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

SARS-1 has escaped from sophisticated labs 6 separate times, in Singapore, Taiwan, and China.

Threatened pandemics and laboratory escapes: Self-fulfilling prophecies

The risk of a manmade pandemic sparked by a laboratory escape is not hypothetical: Many laboratory escapes of high-consequence pathogens have occurred. Ironically, these laboratories were working...

thebulletin.org

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

6 years

You know the finding that moderate drinkers are more healthy than non-drinkers? Apparently the non-drinker category was full of ex-drinkers. When they were excluded, the effect almost goes to zero. From an excellent article by @smencimer .

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

@MattNachtrab I know you have conflicts of interest here, but your “the investigators were compensated for their work” does not win against “they kept finding doctored images”. Here's example images from MTL, Zlokovic, and Lesné papers. Any normal person would conclude there was fraud. (1/2)

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 months

Given how hard it is to control unobservables, any maternal health study that doesn’t use a good instrument should probably be ignored until a better study arrives.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Smallpox escaped 3 times from labs in England, causing 80 cases and 3 deaths.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Ebola, Zika, H5N1, and Dengue have all escaped labs. People died.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

The 2007 Foot and mouth disease outbreak in the UK first appeared four kilometers from a biosafety level 4 laboratory

2007 United Kingdom foot-and-mouth outbreak - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

@DrZoeHyde Whether intended or not, your description of the study is misleading. People will assume you are referring to Long Covid risks in healthy individuals, when in reality the study was on autopsies of people who died of Covid. See thread here 👇

Andrew Croxford

@andrew_croxford

3 years

Sadly, it isn’t mentioned in the tweet above, or in the QT, that >95% had at least one comorbidity like obesity or hypertension. It isn’t mentioned that these are autopsies, which are by definition performed on people who failed to control the infection.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Here's a new version of Which Famous Economist Are You Most Similar To, with all new questions for 2021. Topics include Covid, the minimum wage, big tech, and student loans

Which famous economist are you most similar to?

An interactive quiz with animations

whichfamouseconomistareyoumostsimilarto.com

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Foot and mouth disease had previously escaped a Kansas lab in 2004, not once but twice!

Plum Island Animal Disease Center - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

5 years

@gsarcone Here's a slightly more insane version of this illusion.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 months

2. Epidurals were associated with ADHD and autism, even after covariate adjustment. But the effect disappears in sibling control studies @cremieuxrecueil

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

New blog post: You’re probably measuring your treatment effect incorrectly. (1/3)

You’re probably measuring your treatment effect incorrectly

A simple question with a simple answer that was only discovered recently

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 years

Screenshots taken from ()

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

New blog post: Instrumental variables analysis for non-economists.

Instrumental variables analysis for non-economists

Visualizations for scientists and engineers

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Opening a window can be 2x more effective at reducing your risk of infection compared to vaccination.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

@alexismadrigal Beautifully written, but my main takeaway is that the most negative outcomes came from people reacting to COVID rather than from COVID itself.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

An exogenous 22% increase in sugar intake in early life drives a 52% increase in adult diabetes and an 18% drop in post-secondary education. From a regression discontinuity design exploiting sugar rationing in the post-WWII United Kingdom.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

Antigen tests are held up because too many experts quibble over where contagiousness starts. Is it at a viral count of 10^5 or 10^6? What if it's 10^4? I don't think the exact cutoff matters. Almost all virus is in people with viral counts > 10^8.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

I know nobody cares about this anymore, but here is my rough diagram of rational levels of covid cautiousness vs actual levels. People were overly cautious through much of 2021 and 2022, but are not cautious enough in 2023.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

This is an extraordinary piece of reporting on the accidental lab leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

8 months

Data challenge of the day: What explains the uniquely American rise in vehicle deaths?

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

Zlokovic was highly cited, a prodigious fundraiser, and an “influencer”. His treatments based on fraud were about to be tested on thousands of patients.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 months

4. Antidepressants were linked to offspring Autism/ASD. But the effect disappears in a sibling control analysis.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

This chart and the logic of sibling control studies should be taught to med students and anybody who consumes medical research.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 months

3. Infections during pregnancy were linked to ADHD and ASD. But when you look at infections 1 or 2 years *before* pregnancy, you see the same relationship. It must be spurious.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Today in weird facts: The total weight of all SARS-CoV-2 viruses that are currently in human hosts around the world is about 2 lbs.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

Some say the rise in teen depression isn't due to social media, but instead due to rising homework and academic pressure. @jean_twenge address this pretty conclusively. IMO no other theory comes close to the social media hypothesis.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Since this is going viral I will add that even though policing saves lives, there’s also some deep rotten systemic issues that prop up abusive cops. It’s bad!

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

To put this in perspective, the QALYs potentially lost here exceed the total QALYs lost by Americans, British, and French in World War 1.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

@gdemaneuf @asymmetricinfo It's odd that Peter Daszak touted this report on Laotian origins as evidence that it couldn't be a lab leak, without mentioned he knew the Wuhan lab received multiple bat samples from Laos in 2019.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

6 months

A group is trying to genetically engineer pain-free livestock with her mutation. @slatestarcodex is helping fund them.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

1/ Are you vaguely aware that our electric grid might be vulnerable to solar storms and EMP attacks, but you're not really sure how severe the risk is? I wasn't sure either, until I did a deep dive. I've written up my report as a Q&A style dialogue.

Everything I've learned about solar storm risk and EMP attacks

A Q&A style dialogue to separate fact from fiction.

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 years

Specifically from the excellent @ESYudkowsky , who would probably want to remind everyone that his post is actually about AI risk.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Announcing a new project: Apollo Academic Surveys. It's like the Chicago IGM poll of economists... but for all academic fields. If you're an academic who is interested in helping organize surveys, DM me. Financial support will be available in many cases.

Apollo Academic Surveys

Apollo is a nonprofit that aggregates the views of experts and makes them freely available to everyone.

www.apollosurveys.org

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Back-of-the-envelope estimates: • 50M people with Alzheimer's on any given year • Alzheimer's has an HSUV of about 0.5 • 10 year delay inferred from article above. 50M * 0.5 * 10 = 250M.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 months

@drpeterlange No, they were confounded by harder to measure latent variables (e.g. genetics, conscientiousness). The key point is that the common practice of adjusting for SES helps a bit but is ultimately not enough to capture those unobservables.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

Back-of-the-envelope estimates: • 50M people with Alzheimer's on any given year • Alzheimer's has an HSUV of about 0.5 * 1 year delay in cure inferred from article 50M * 0.5 * 1 = 25M.

Estimated Quality-Adjusted Life-Year Associated with the Degree of Activities of Daily Living in...

The quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) and health state utility values (HSUVs) are major quality of life scales that are used for the analyses of health economics of diseases such as Alzheimer's...

ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

Life update: After 7 years in the Bay Area, my wife and I are moving back to New York. Very sad to be so far from friends and colleagues, but excited to be back East!

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Not making people log in to a government website increases health insurance enrollment by 11%.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

5 years

This is a variant of Gianni Sarcone's ( @gsarcone ) illusion, which is itself a variant of the original Müller-Lyer illusion.

Matt Lieberman

@social_brains

5 years

Another version of this awesome illusion from @gsarcone . The lines don't move, just the arrowheads.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

Many such cases.

Chris Said

@Chris_Said

9 months

List of prominent Alzheimer’s researchers credibly accused of fraud:🧵 1. Marc Tessier-Lavigne, president of Stanford, co-authored "several" papers with doctored images. When concerns were raised, Marc wanted to “keep it quiet”.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

5 years

1/ New blog post: What do R^2, laboratory error analysis, ensemble learning, meta-analysis, and financial portfolio risk all have in common? They all make a lot more sense if you first understand a single formula and its simpler special cases.

Variance after scaling and summing: One of the most useful facts from statistics

One of the most useful facts from statistics

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

@mattyglesias I was looking into this yesterday and noticed the same thing. The things he said were fairly reasonable.

Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Here's Tom Cotton discussing possible origins. While he goes a little further than I would go, overall he is epistemically responsible. In response, the Washington Post said he was peddling a "fringe" conspiracy that was "debunked"

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

I now realize I was totally wrong about this. Trump being bad is primary. Everything else is secondary. Most people felt this way early on, and I was late to this.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

@_ahmedzaidi @zeynep A/B testing is actually the problem. These types of changes increase engagement by promoting the toxic content of the home timeline. I want to stay in the "Latest" timeline because I don't *want* to be so engaged. It's addictive and bad.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

Customers treat a 1 cent rise at the dollar boundary (from $3.99 to $4.00, for example) as a 20 cent rise.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Addendum #2 : I thought this would be obvious, but blame for the homicide spike is also shared by the cops who went on strike to prove a point. Addendum #3 : Not all protestors should share blame. But several widely employed slogans were predictably counterproductive.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Bold moves from the Google Docs spellchecker tonight

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

Drug lords like El Chapo are able to control their empires from behind prison walls. What this tells us about AI risk and the current state of AI security.

The El Chapo model of AI containment

What the Mexican drug lord can teach us about AI risk scenarios and containment

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

@DKThomp I dream of a world where all these locales proudly display their CO2 readings (a proxy for ventilation), and an inspection report from a local government proving adequate air filtration.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

@RioStover @Yozarian22 FDA’s approval process is slow, expensive, and overly concerned with test sensitivity. Even if this test’s COVID threshold drops by 3x due to dilution, it should still pick up about 90% of COVID cases it would otherwise find. Plus the other 2 viruses!

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

@ashishkjha Thank you Ashish. If anyone is interested in learning more about the importance of rapid tests, I put together a website. It includes templates for writing to your Senator or Governor.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

I can't remember who said this, but this account feels like an advanced news technology from the future.

The Base Rate Times

@base_rate_times

1 year

Complete summary: prediction markets on room temperature superconductor... Replicated by 2024? ◦ @Metaculus : 17%, down from 33% yesterday ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 21%, down from 32% ◦ @Polymarket (at least 2 times): 23%, down from 24% Retracted by 2024? ◦ @ManifoldMarkets : 44%,

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Taiwan confirmed today that a researcher was infected by a strain of SARS-2 in a BSL-3 lab. I don’t have strong opinions on whether SARS-2 was a lab leak, but it sure seems like this type of research is super risky!

Taiwan confirms researcher infected with COVID in lab | Taiwan News | Dec. 11, 2021 18:00

www.taiwannews.com.tw

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

1 year

A story in three parts

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@Chris_Said

3 years

@yayitsrob @ATabarrok Most of the opposition to rapid tests came from pathologists & microbiologists. This 2020 editorial was replete with "perfect is the enemy of the good" and "better to make an error of omission than an error of commission" thinking.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

6 months

Are you a scientist with $10 million dollars lying around? If so, run this experiment! It would: - Conclusively establish the viral counts at which people become meaningfully infectious - Conclusively quantify the effectiveness of ventilation / masks

The respiratory infection study to end all respiratory infection studies

Establish once and for all when someone stops being infectious, and how well ventilation / masks work.

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

8 months

@DLeonhardt I think this article just got this wrong. Left: the article claims vehicles have gotten only "slightly" larger since the early 2000s. Right: EPA report on vehicle type trends.

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@Chris_Said

3 years

Here's Tom Cotton discussing possible origins. While he goes a little further than I would go, overall he is epistemically responsible. In response, the Washington Post said he was peddling a "fringe" conspiracy that was "debunked"

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@Chris_Said

4 years

We've recently seen journalists and experts make recommendations based on the weird “no evidence” construction, only to later find out they were wrong. It feels like the same type of reasoning is behind expert recommendations that ibuprofen is ok to use for coronavirus. (1/16)

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

10 months

A surprisingly persistent piece of fake news is that Elon shipped Community Notes. It shipped 2 weeks before he joined!

Helpful Birdwatch notes are now visible to everyone on Twitter in the US

Now everyone on Twitter in the US can see Birdwatch notes as part of our program to add context to Tweets and keep people better informed.

blog.x.com

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 years

Why is the music at bars always so loud? I literally don't know anyone who has ever said "man, I wish someone made the music louder at this bar".

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

2 years

Emily Oster is such a gem. Her ability to interpret and contextualize data is like 3 standard deviations higher than you’ll find in other pregnancy/parenting advice.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Leaving aside the party breakdown, it's bonkers that so many Americans think COVID has a >50% chance of hospitalization.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

4 years

Donald Trump is out of control and dangerous. Everyone in power needs to call him out.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 years

@kurtosis0 But anyway, lesson learned: People really like Tweets about fire alarms.

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@Chris_Said

4 years

1/ New blog post: Why don't we have antigen tests yet? A core reason is that many medical experts have been using a precise but irrelevant metric instead of a less precise but far more useful metric. <thread>

Contagiousness sensitivity: The metric that could control the pandemic

Misguided demands for academic precision have delayed access to rapid antigen tests.

chris-said.io

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

8 years

New blog post: How to make polished Jupyter presentations with optional code visibility

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

5 years

At my company, Opendoor, it's critical to know how long it will take us to sell each home (think of the holding costs). Here's an interesting post on how we use Survival Analysis to model this.

Opendoor | Sell your home the minute you're ready.

Opendoor is the new way to sell your home. Skip the hassle of listing, showings and months of stress, and close on your own timeline. Get a free offer today!

www.opendoor.com

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

3 years

Prediction: The next 5 years will be dominated by studies that overestimate the risk of long Covid. The studies will all suffer from biased selection of the post-infection group, and no methodology (including DiD) will fully account for that bias.

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Chris Said

@Chris_Said

7 years

@jacobinmag Wait, what? Christie is clearly abusing his power here, but what does this have to do with capitalism?

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@Chris_Said

3 years

A year into the pandemic and we still don't have widespread improved ventilation, nor do we have widespread rapid testing. Remarkably, both efforts were stymied by the same set of bad arguments! Short thread (1/8):

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@Chris_Said

3 years

@DrZoeHyde Certainly possible that the virus can persist in the body even in healthy people, but it was misleading not to describe the study population.

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@Chris_Said

5 years

@SchoeneggerPhil @tylercowen One thing I can never understand is why the first class people would want to board first. Personally, I'd like to spend as little time on the plane as possible.

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@Chris_Said

9 months

@MattNachtrab Re who *committed* the fraud I agree the case against MTL is the weakest. But the report you link says that he declined multiple opportunities to correct the record, and created a lab environment where data was faked by multiple reports at multiple institutions. Bad guy. (2/2)

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