Celsius Energy @CelsiusEnergyFM Twitter profile

Last Seen Profiles

@Guststs127607

@furin_chn

@mindoffalls

@kod_lyoko

@tokyocyb0rg

@ghoststorycomic

@PRchoudhray

@jaromjordan

@_nono5077

@Drazevonia

@shirasu_umai3

@kadomatsuy9274

@cukienaknikmati

@ChristiS

@NicolasSarkozy

@DSRichardBeater

@Wy9DrTdnuE81881

@realssullivan

@Ojani

@ZazaMan2055

@bksundar

@ourieez

@mochaclip

@peggyanne

@Baka_ka89

@lillreems

@Cherryk_filter

@ManotoNews

@ryu1755

@AestheteMortal

@paubarredoo

@rksz2323

@osuta_philp

@RealRobotakk

@amandaarriaga2

@sjaanie123

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Woah. It appears that #natgas producers may finally be throwing in the towel. The Baker Hughes gas rig count plunged by 16 rigs to 141 rigs this week. This is the largest 1-week drop since Feb 5, 2016! Rigs are now down 8 rigs vs 2022, the first YoY decline since April 9, 2021.

16

44

208

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

4 months

By my calculations, today’s $1.67/MMBTU close for #natgas is the lowest on an inflation-adjusted basis (per CPI data) since at least 1994, taking out the adjusted COVID low of $1.76/MMBTU from 6/25/2020. The absolute low of $1.32/MMBTU from 1/13/1995 adjusts to $2.67/MMBTU today.

17

44

174

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

6 months

Remember the days when the year-over-year #natgas storage surplus was above +500 BCF? Oh yes, that was 6 days ago. The Realtime surplus stands at +419 BCF this morning and I am now projecting that the surplus will drop below +140 BCF by January 22. Impressive.

14

26

151

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

With colder temperatures, weak wind generation, & strong coal-to-gas switching, #natgas powerburn registered an exceptional 45% of the powerstack yesterday, up +13% vs 2022. This is a % share typically only seen during the peak of the Summer cooling season.

8

23

142

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

6 months

I'm now projecting a -304 BCF #natgas storage withdrawal for Jan 13-19, only the 3rd -300 BCF drawdown on record, after 2018's -359 BCF & 2021's -338 BCF. W/ arctic air now a given, whether the draw ultimately tops -300 BCF will depend on freeze-offs & disruptions to LNG exports.

11

17

141

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

4 months

Well, it's nice to see somebody recognize what is going on. #Natgas prices spike more than 8% afterhours after Chesapeake reduces CapEx by 20% for '24. If this starts a stampede of similar reductions, prices could be in the process of bottoming. Be careful chasing up here though.

12

21

138

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

If you thought the 2023 collapse in #natgas prices was worse that your usual garden variety sell-off, you’d be right. Since peaking at $6.97/MMBTU on Dec 15, gas prices have plunged -65.4%, which is the largest 50-day decline since 1994, topping a -52.3% tumble from early 1997.

9

37

131

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Freeport is back. The facility appears to be running all three trains with volumes reaching 2.19 BCF/d today, the highest the plant has ever seen, pre- or post-fire, and approaching the plant's working capacity (2.4 BCF/d). #Natgas

6

29

132

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

7 months

#Natgas demand will rise sharply today as unseasonably chilly conditions expand across the Central US. Fueled by strong residential & commercial heating demand & powerburn, I project that total gas demand will reach 128.5 BCF/d, a new seasonal high & up +23.4 BCF/d vs 2022.

8

23

123

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

Holy freeze-offs, batman! #Natgas production was revised sharply lower to 91.4 BCF/d yesterday, down 7.1 BCF/d YoY & down nearly 11 BCF/d from November’s peak Per today’s early-cycle, output will rebound to 94.1 BCF/d, but I expect this to be revised lower tonight.

11

24

115

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

After the GFS & ECMWF trended colder overnight, I'm now projecting a huge -202 BCF #natgas storage withdrawal for Dec 17-23, easily the largest draw for the week in the last 5 yrs. This is still preliminary & will undoubtedly change as the forecast evolves but, still, impressive.

6

28

119

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas powerburn has been remarkably strong despite mediocre temperatures due to fuel switching from coal to gas. Over the past 7 days, the gas share of the powerstack is up +6.6% vs 2022 while coal is down-8.2%, a huge gap that will undoubtedly drive record burns this Summer.

11

22

118

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

To those looking at $2.10/MMBTU #natgas and planning to go long the 2x ETF BOIL, use caution. BOIL currently holds May contracts priced near $2.10/MMBTU but next week will roll all the way to the July contract, priced 23% higher at $2.59/MMTBU, selling low and buying high.

18

20

116

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

3 months

As the solar eclipse moved across Texas, there was a brief, but significant drop in solar generation on the state's ERCOT grid from 14,000 MW to less than 1,000 MW. This was compensated for by a nearly 50% increase in #natgas generation from 18,000 MW to 28,000 MW. Pretty neat.

4

17

118

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

Within the last hour, projected Realtime #natgas inventories have fallen below 3000 BCF. This is 14 days earlier than last year (Jan 9) & 8 days sooner than the 5-yr avg (Jan 3). It is also the 1st time that inventories have fallen below 3000 BCF before the end of Dec since 2018.

11

25

112

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The #natgas share of fossil fuel consumption (coal + gas) reached a new multi-year high yesterday at 76%, up +11% vs 2022 thanks to coal-to-gas switching. This will yield big year-over-year powerburn gains this Summer as temperatures heat up, on the order of +4-8 BCF/d.

6

19

113

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

With today’s close, I calculate that #natgas is undervalued vs its Realtime Fair Price of $2.51/MMBTU—based on current inventories, supply/demand imbalances, & global prices—by -11.8%. This is the largest undervaluation since the Feb minimum just before prices bottomed & rallied.

12

26

107

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The most dangerous time to be a #natgas trader--bull or bear--is the weekend. The market is closed, but the weather never takes a day off. The computer models keep on running. Monday invariably brings oversized gaps up & down. Welcome to the weekend. Time to hurry up and wait.

12

4

105

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

Arctic air cleared the East Coast overnight & #natgas demand is soaring this morning. It’s 9:30 AM & Realtime withdrawals have reached -7 BCF, already topping yesterday (-4 BCF/d) & the 5-yr avg (-7 BCF/d), on the way to a -14 BCF/d daily draw today, 8 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg

3

21

100

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas powerburn demand is crushing it. Despite mild temperatures, powerburn reached 35.2 BCF/d yesterday, up +7.9 BCF/d vs 2022, the largest year-over-year gain this season. With robust production & soft LNG exports, powerburn is almost singlehandedly balancing supply & demand.

11

21

101

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

In the past hour, projected Realtime #natgas inventories dropped below 2100 BCF, 12 days later than the 5-yr avg (Feb 14) & 18 days later than last year (Feb 8). I project that storage will finally fall below 2000 BCF on Mar 7 on its way to bottoming near 1850 BCF in late March.

6

23

101

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Freeport accelerates its restart process with feedgas demand jumping to 0.72 BCF/d today per early-cycle pipeline data, 33% of capacity. Total LNG feedgas demand will reach 13.5 BCF/d, the highest since March 20, 2022 & within 0.2 BCF/d of all-time highs. This is bullish. #natgas

4

30

102

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Yesterday, #natgas powerburn demand commanded a 45.9% share of the powerstack, up a massive +8.2% vs last year & new 2023 high. If gas held such a share on the hottest day from last Summer—July 20, 2022—powerburn demand would reach 51.1 BCF/d, easily a new record.

3

14

102

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

6 months

I'm currently projecting a -260 BCF #natgas storage withdrawal for the week of January 13-19, tied for the ninth largest weekly drawdown for any week since 1994. And (Spoiler Alert) if the latest forecast holds, this projection will rise another 5-10 BCF in tonight’s update.

7

15

101

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

5 months

As arctic air expands into the Deep South, residential & commercial heating demand & powerburn will surge. Per early-cycle pipeline data, total #natgas demand will surge to 154 BCF/d today, up a massive +38 BCF/d vs 2023, driving a very bullish -46 BCF daily storage withdrawal.

9

13

99

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

You know sentiment is bad when the EIA reports a -213 BCF #natgas storage withdrawal—18 BCF larger than my projection & 107 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg--& prices are still down -3.2%. This was an unequivocally bullish draw, but investors remain focused on the early-Jan warmth.

13

15

95

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

6 months

It’s going to be a nervous weekend for #natgas traders. If I was a bear, I’d be worried about a short squeeze Monday ahead of an arctic onslaught. If I was a bull, I’d be worried that the forecast can’t look any better than it already does & prices will lose momentum & sell-off.

11

6

99

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

5 months

#Natgas prices are at 3 year lows & production is back to 105 BCF/d within 1.5 BCF/d of record highs—so it’s only natural that the Baker Hughes Rig Count would RISE by 4 rigs this week, the largest weekly increase since last September.

13

9

98

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

4 months

Why did #natgas prices spike this afternoon on guidance from a single company? Besides the fact that this is bullish news, speculative short exposure has surged in recent weeks, increasing by 86% since January 9. This sets the stage for a short squeeze even on even modest news.

4

9

98

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

Since 1993, there have only been 7 weeks in December that have seen a -200 BCF or larger #natgas storage withdrawal. I'm currently projecting two such draws this month, -203 BCF for Dec 17-23 & -201 BCF for Dec 24-30. Only 2016 has seen two -200 BCF withdrawals in the same month.

7

19

96

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count registered another sharp drop this week, dropping -6 rigs to just 124 rigs, the lowest since Feb 11, 2022 & down -29 rigs year-over-year. It is the third largest weekly drop in the last 52 weeks. Long-term, this will curtail production growth.

4

17

96

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas demand will rise today not only due to colder temperatures across the Midwest but also thanks to highs in the 80s across Texas which will boost early-season cooling demand. As of 9AM, powerburn is already above 10 BCF/d, on its way to around 32 BCF/d, up +5 BCF/d YoY.

11

97

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Based on the colder afternoon model runs of the GFS & ECMWF, I'm now projecting -200 BCF or larger #natgas storage withdrawals for the weeks of Jan 28-Feb 3 (-200 BCF) AND Feb 4-10 (-208 BCF). Feb 4-10 alone would exceed the entire draw for January so far (-206 BCF & counting).

7

19

97

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

After a 1-week pause, the Baker Hughes #natgas rig count resumed its decline, dropping another 4 rigs to 137 rigs. The count is down 24 rigs in the last 4 weeks, down 14 rigs vs 2022 & is at its lowest since March 11, 2022. For good measure, the #oil rig count also dropped by 5.

24

21

89

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas powerburn demand rose to another 2023 high of 48.1 BCF/d yesterday, up a steep +6.9 BCF/d vs 2022. The 6,374 GWh of electricity generation from gas was the single highest on record. Two of the top generating three days of all time have occurred this week.

7

18

94

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

5 months

As arctic air expands east, #natgas heating demand will surge today. Coupled with ongoing production freeze-offs, strong powerburn, weak wind generation, & recovering LNG exports, today’s daily storage withdrawal could top those from earlier in the week to near -60 BCF/d.

15

10

92

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Freeport may still be stalled out at 22% capacity, but the other LNG export facilities are picking up the slack with Sabine Pass, Cameron, Calcasieu, Corpus Christi, & Cove Point all above 95% capacity, driving total LNG feedgas demand to a new 2023 high of 13.4 BCF/d. #Natgas

9

17

91

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Front-month #natgas prices have gapped up over +7.5% this evening. If this holds, DON’T expect UNG to see +7.5% gains & BOIL +15% tomorrow. These ETFs now hold entirely March ’23 contracts, which are up “only” +2.6%. On this track, UNG gains around +2.6% & BOIL +5.2%.

15

13

90

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

While chilly temperatures are still expected for early-to-mid March, the outlook has moderated over the weekend with my consensus model losing 40 GWDDs for March 6-19. Unless the forecast trends colder, I expect #natgas —overbought & near-term overvalued--to pullback tomorrow.

11

8

88

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Heat Advisories & Excessive Heat Warnings blanket much of the South today. These will expand in the days ahead w/ at least 7-10 days of excessive to record-setting heat likely. Don’t be surprised to see the South Central Region record multiple weekly #natgas storage withdrawals.

4

9

89

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

With today’s+8.4% rally, #natgas finished the week with 3 straight daily gains. This is the first 3-session winning streak for the commodity since a 3-day stretch ending December 13. Prices are up +20.8% over the past 3 days, but are still down -44% since the start of the year.

12

11

87

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

During the 1990s & 2000s, it was routine for #natgas inventories to finish the year under 3,000 BCF (15 out of 17 years between 1993-2009). No so anymore. I project that #natgas inventories will end 2022 at 2,912 BCF. This would be only the 3rd time below 3,000 BCF since 2010.

10

14

83

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

5 months

Within the last hour, projected Realtime #natgas inventories have fallen below 2021 levels and are no longer at 5-year highs. Look for 2024 storage to fall below 2020 levels by tomorrow night and to come within 50 BCF or less of 2023 levels before warmer air arrives next week.

4

15

88

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

#Natgas demand will reach a new seasonal high today, with a projected -28 BCF/d storage withdrawal, a massive 23 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. By tonight, the Realtime storage deficit vs the 5-yr avg will be back over -100 BCF, having fallen under -10 BCF just last weekend.

1

15

86

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The Baker Hughes Combined #Natgas & #Oil Rig Count continues to grind lower, dropping 3 rigs last week to 746 rigs. That marks 4 straight weekly declines. The rig count is now at its lowest since June 17, 2022 & is up just 83 rigs vs 2022. Lower prices are slowly doing their job.

3

17

86

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 months

#Natgas production has continued to grind lower, dipping to 98.5 BCF/d in today’s early data, while year-ago output was breaking out to new highs. As a result, production is now down -3.1 BCF/d vs 2023, the largest year-over-year decline—excluding brief freeze-offs—since 2021.

8

15

87

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

This is what a bearish temperature set-up looks like during the Shoulder Season: cool across the South to suppress Powerburn demand & warm across the North to suppress heating demand. I project that #natgas demand will fall to a new 2023 low today w/ a +19 BCF/d daily injection.

14

7

86

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

7 months

Much of Europe will see consistently colder-than-normal temperatures for at least the next 7-10 days. This will drive strong #natgas heating demand and bolster storage withdrawals. Here are forecast anomalies for this coming Wednesday afternoon.

5

12

86

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

I can post ad nauseum about strong powerburn & LNG exports, soft Canadian imports, etc. But, while these are long-term bullish, all that matters near-term is the weather, which remains bearish w/ consistently below-avg GWDDs. Until this changes, #natgas prices will be pressured.

14

11

83

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has authorized the Freeport LNG export facility to resume operations on 2 of 3 trains. Feedgas volumes have hovered at 0.4 BCF/d or 21% capacity for the past week, but expect these to rise to 1-2 BCF/d in the next 10 days. #Natgas

11

12

84

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

8 months

Computer models are coming into better agreement that a pattern shift will bring much colder temperatures to at least the Central US and Midwest by this time next week with highs 10F-20F below-average, driving early-season heating demand. #Natgas

8

10

85

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas prices are up +7% today. Why is the 2x ETF BOIL up only +5.8%, rather than the expected +14%? The front-month February 2023 contract is up +8% but the less volatile T+1 March 2023 contract, which is held by BOIL, is up only +3%.

12

10

83

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Freeport LNG volumes will surge to 1.48 BCF/d today, 68% of capacity. Total LNG feedgas demand will rise to 13.98 BCF/d, a new all-time high, topping the 13.7 BCF/d from March 22, 2022. It’s the longest stretch between new records since LNG exports became a thing in 2016. #Natgas

1

14

83

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Thanks to LNG exports hovering near 14 BCF/d (+6.3 BCF/d vs 5-yr avg), weak wind, strong coal-to-gas switching & production holding under 101 BCF/d, I calculate that #natgas supply/demand imbalances today will be 1.9 BCF/d tight vs the 5-yr avg, the strongest since early March.

4

14

82

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

If there is one chart that should concern #natgas bulls the most, it is this: on their current trajectory, European storage will reach capacity by July. Certainly, cooler temperatures are arriving & LNG can be shunted to Asia, but US LNG exports could face shut-ins this Summer.

21

15

83

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

LNG feedgas demand just missed a record high yesterday after final volumes were revised lower. However, it will make another effort today. Flows to Freeport will rise to 1.58 BCF/d or 72% of capacity, driving total feedgas to a record 14.1 BCF/d, up +1.2 BCF/d vs 2022. #Natgas

3

13

82

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

After a headfake on Sat (and, really, months of headfakes dating back to Oct), LNG feedgas to Freeport held at 2023 highs yesterday at 0.21 BCF & will ramp up to 0.47 BCF today, 21% of capacity. #Natgas traders seem to be selling the news but, long-term, this is bullish for gas.

4

21

81

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

LNG feedgas volumes to Freeport will rise to a new 2023 high today of 0.81 BCF/d, 37% of capacity. With the plant now authorized to utilize 2 of 3 trains, I expect volumes to top 1.0-1.5 BCF/d in a matter of days. Capacity is 2.4 BCF/d, which won’t be reached until May. #Natgas

6

13

82

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The March 2023 “quoted” #natgas price is up 6% today. However, 1x UNG is only up +3.7% while 2x BOIL is up just +4.1%. Why? They all hold different contracts! BOIL holds only less volatile May 2023 contracts while UNG just started its roll & holds 24% April & 76% March contracts.

12

16

80

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will rise to a new RECORD HIGH of 14.24 BCF/d, just topping the 14.1 BCF/d from March 4 & up a steep +2.3 BCF/d year-over-year. This is a dramatic improvement from Saturday when demand dropped as low as 12.1 BCF/d. #Natgas

11

14

81

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

After a brief cooldown later this week, the near-term temperature outlook suggests some of the hottest temperatures—and highest Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs)--of the Summer by the third week of July. Should this trend hold, I would expect to see #natgas gap up this evening.

10

80

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Computer models continue to trend towards a sustained period of colder-than-normal temperatures for much of March, driving consistently above-avg GWDDs & #natgas heating demand. 44-day GWDDs for Feb 24-Apr 8 stand at 1017 GWDDs, 2nd most for the period in the last 5 yrs.

13

12

81

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Why did #natgas rally for a sixth straight session today? The second—and possibly third—week of March continues to look unseasonably chilly with well above-avg GWDDs. After peaking near +390 BCF on Mar 7, the storage surplus vs the 5-yr avg could fall below +320 BCF a week later.

3

14

81

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count continues its decline, falling 5 rigs to 130 rigs, down 24 rigs vs last year & the lowest since March 4, 2022. Remember, this will not drive an immediate decline in production—that takes 6+ months—but could point to tighter balances this Winter.

4

12

79

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

After today’s bloodbath, the T+2 March 2023 #natgas futures contract—which is what KOLD and BOIL are now invested in--has dropped to $4.84/MMBTU which, if it holds at this level until March is the front-month, would be the lowest since March 16, 2022. Who wants to buy the blood?

18

10

79

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

While the Lower 48 will see unseasonably mild conditions for the next 7-10 days, an arctic airmass will settle over Europe this weekend. The map below plots expected departure from normal highs for next Monday, with many areas seeing readings 10F-20F below-average. #Natgas

5

17

77

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

#Natgas spiking here after Freeport appears to re-assert its early October restart target of its LNG export facility with 2 BCF/d of volumes expected, just in time for the heating season. Not sure if this is bullish enough to justify a 7% squeeze, buts it's certainly not bearish.

4

18

77

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

On Sunday, LNG feedgas demand rose to a new record high of 14.85 BCF/day, an exceptional 97% of working capacity. Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, volumes will drop slightly to a still-strong 14.7 BCF/day, up +2.2 BCF/day year-over-year. #Natgas

3

9

77

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Despite #natgas prices holding at 1-month highs, coal-to-gas switching has shown no signs of subsiding. The gas share of total fossil fuel consumption (coal + gas) has been up at least 10% vs 2022 for the past 22 straight days, including +13% yesterday.

2

10

79

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The #Natgas share of the powerstack is averaging 39% over the past week. This is up +6.5% vs last year, by far the most of any fuel, while coal is down -2.2%. Expect suppressed gas prices to continue to drive fuel switching with some variation based on day-to-day wind generation.

4

14

79

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The LNG export recovery may be underway. Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will rise by +0.5 BCF to 11.5 BCF/d, up +1.1 BCF/d vs 2022 & the highest since June 10. The bulk of the gains will come at Sabine Pass, which is now up to 53% capacity. #Natgas

3

15

75

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

3 months

Per my Consensus Model—which integrates an avg of GFS OP, GFS ENS, & ECWMF ENS data—14-day accumulated GWDDs for March 17-30 now stand at 284 GWDDs, the 2nd most for the period in the last 5 yrs. It's the most bullish that the temperature outlook has been since January. #Natgas

14

5

77

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

7 months

In addition to the usual offenders (mild temperatures, production growth), #natgas is under pressure today on news that the Plaquemines LNG export facility—expected to provide nearly 4 BCF/d of exports by 2024-25--will undergo a lengthy commissioning that could delay exports.

9

15

75

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

8 months

As of 9 PM EDT, #natgas inventories are on track for their first daily withdrawal of the season at -3.0 BCF/d, thanks to a surge in res/com heating demand & strong LNG exports. Demand is up +13.4 BCF/d vs 2022 which easily tops the modest +2.3 BCF/d year-over-year supply gain.

3

9

74

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

6 months

#Natgas demand will begin a multi-day surge today as arctic air prepares to advance eastward. Projected withdrawals increase to -23 BCF/d today ( 5-yr avg: -18 BCF/d) before spiking to a massive -53 BCF/d next Tuesday, 31 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. Wow.

1

13

76

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

7 months

The Baker Hughes #natgas rig count rose by 3 to 119 rigs this week, still -34 fewer vs 2022, but the smallest yearly decline since July. It’s not like production isn’t at record highs, inventories aren’t bloated, & LNG projects aren’t getting delayed, but you do you, producers.

13

4

73

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 months

The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count dropped for a 3rd week, shedding 3 rigs to 106 rigs, down -53 rigs or -33% vs 2023. This is the lowest rig count since Dec 17, 2021 & the largest year-over-year decline since Nov 20, 2020. Production losses aren't going to reverse anytime soon.

6

16

76

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

This is your daily reminder to take a single run of the GFS Operational model with a grain of salt. Today’s 12z operational run shows a massive dome of arctic air over the Lower 48 on Feb 2. The GFS Ensemble, on the other hand, suggests that this is likely overdone. #natgas

14

12

74

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

11 months

Thanks to very weak wind generation of just 503 GWh & continued robust cooling demand across the South, the #natgas share of total daily electricity generation reached 47.3% yesterday, the largest daily share for any date since 2018.

2

9

75

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

5 months

The near-term computer models remain generally lukewarm on the coming pattern shift for the second half of February. However, the 12z GFS operational run suggests the potential of more significant cold. Never trust a single model run, but let’s see if it becomes a trend. #Natgas

6

10

75

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

With #natgas prices tumbling below my $5.50/MMBTU downside target, I am revising my sentiment from Bearish to Neutral and maintaining the $5.50/MMBTU target. I will be trading accordingly.

2

9

75

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

#Natgas production has faded over the past week, dropping to 99.3 BCF/d yesterday, down 3 BCF/d from November’s record highs. Look for output to take a (temporary) hit late next week—likely dropping below 95 BCF/d or more—as freeze-offs across Texas & Appalachia become a factor.

3

12

72

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas demand will reach its highest level today until at least next November with a -27 BCF/d daily storage withdrawal, 25 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. While daily draws will then steadily decline, I expect demand to remain at or above avg into April as cool conditions persist.

7

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

#Natgas demand will ramp up today as arctic air prepares to reload across the Lower 48, reaching a seasonal high of 125.4 BCF/day, up a huge +19.8 BCF/day year-over-year. All components of demand—LNG exports, exports to Mexico, powerburn, industrial, & res/com—are higher vs 2021.

3

8

73

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

7 months

As long as LNG exports, exports to Mexico, & coal-to-gas switching (powerburn) remains strong, demand factors are sufficient to counter production gains & leave #natgas supply/demand imbalances neutral to slightly tight. But, with a +250 BCF storage surplus, is that good enough?

10

73

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

10 months

LNG feedgas demand reached 13.2 BCF/day yesterday, the highest since July 4 & very close to Summer highs. As temperatures cool along the Gulf Coast as we move further into September, I expect volumes to ramp up above 14 BCF/day in the weeks to come. #Natgas

5

13

73

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

So close. Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas demand will rise to a new record high, coming within a hairsbreadth of the 15 BCF/d level at 14.93 BCF/d, up +2.4 BCF/d vs 2022. Check back tonight to see if the record holds after late-cycle data. #Natgas

6

9

73

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

#Natgas inventories again avoid a triple digit build as the EIA reports a +96 BCF injection, 6 BCF smaller than my projection & right at the 5-yr avg--rather impressive given bearish temperatures during the week. I’m a bit surprised at the negative initial response to the report.

6

8

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Aided by lower wind generation, the #natgas share of fossil fuel consumption (coal + gas) reached 71% yesterday, up +10% vs 2022, both 2-week highs, suggesting that lower gas prices may already be driving the rebound in coal-to-gas switching needed to rebalance supply & demand.

7

12

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

6 months

Per today’s early-cycle data, #natgas production freeze-offs will ramp up. Output will fall to 101.4 BCF, up just +0.8 BCF vs last year & 5 BCF below record highs. Most of these losses are from the Rockies. Look for further losses as arctic air reaches Texas & the Appalachians.

5

9

73

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

After operational runs hinted at colder temperatures, both the GFS & ECMWF Ensembles have trended sharply colder over the past 24 hrs. Confidence is increasing in above-avg Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs)—and even legitimately arctic air--by Jan 26 & lasting into Feb. #Natgas

8

14

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

LNG export facilities are full committing to Spring maintenance. Volumes will tumble to 10.8 BCF/d today, down -1.9 BCF/d vs 2022 & a new 2023 low. The drop is being driven by Sabine Pass which will slump to 2.1 BCF/d, just 40% of capacity with 3 Trains likely offline. #Natgas

15

14

72

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Here's a look at my #natgas supply/demand data for today. Total Supply is up steeply vs 2022 (+5.1 BCF). This is offset by LNG exports (+0.6 BCF, soon to be +1.0-1.5 BCF) & powerburn, (+5.4 BCF absolute or +6.4 BCF temperature-adjusted), driving a 1.4 BCF tight imbalance vs 2022.

5

13

72

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The Baker Hughes #Natgas Rig Count continues to slowly fall, dropping another 2 rigs this week to 135 rigs, down 16 rigs year-over-year & the lowest since March 4, 2022. A falling rig count does not mean production will rollover but, over time, should flatten growth.

8

9

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

The Baker Hughes combined #Natgas & #Oil rig count—which I feel will be a better reflection of gas exploration given how gassy oil wells have become—dropped 12 rigs this week to 757 rigs. The count is still up +144 vs 2022 but is down 25 from Nov’s peak & at the lowest since Jul.

9

12

69

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Unseasonably chilly temperatures dominate all of the Great Plains, Midwest & Great Lakes this morning. Gas-Weighted Degree Days (GWDDs) will spike to an impressive 33.1 GWDDs, 12.7 GWDDs greater than the 5-yr avg & easily the single most for March 18 in the last 5 years. #Natgas

7

4

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

1 year

Per today’s early-cycle pipeline data, LNG feedgas volumes to Freeport will more than double from their previous 2023 high to 0.26 BCF/d, or 12% capacity, as the plant continues its restart. This is the highest volume to the plant since its June 8, 2022 fire. #natgas

4

15

70

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

2 years

Arctic air does not only affect #natgas production. Since Dec 21, accumulated production losses stand at a strong -29.3 BCF. However, this is offset by gains in imports from Canada (+7.5 BCF) & LNG export losses (-6.4 BCF), leaving NET supply losses at a more modest -15.3 BCF.

6

8

68

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

5 months

This one will be a doozy. For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report for January 13-19, I'm projecting a -323 BCF withdrawal, 175 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg. Not only will it be the largest draw for the week in the last 5 yrs, but it will be the 3rd largest for any week all-time.

3

5

71

Celsius Energy

@CelsiusEnergyFM

7 months

For today’s EIA #Natgas Storage Report for Nov 25-Dec 1, I am projecting a -109 BCF withdrawal, a strong 61 BCF bullish vs the 5-yr avg thanks to consistent heating demand during the week. It will easily be the largest draw for the week in the last 5 yrs, besting 2018’s -65 BCF.

13

11

71