Anoop @CalmInvestor Twitter profile

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Anoop

5 years

A few books I've found to be useful reading, not just for investors. The Success Equation - Michael Mauboussin How do you attribute success or failure to skill versus luck? How do you tell the mix in any given field?

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 months

Nifty annualised returns by starting year over various forward periods. Investor mindsets after 3-4 years: 2020 starter: ‘15%+ is the bare minimum!’ 2018 beginner: ‘Lucky if you beat inflation’ 2008 survivor: ‘Break-even is bliss’ 2003 veteran: ‘2x every 2-3 years, at

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

22 days

India trading at clear premium: All segments 40%+ above 5-year P/E. Overall market at 78% P/E, 95% P/B premium.

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@CalmInvestor

9 months

The 12% Myth: How to set realistic return expectations from equities 🎯 Look at any asset allocation calculation and the long-term equity return assumption tends to be 12%. So, where does the "12% annualised return" assumption for Indian equities come from? This chart. It

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

The Smallcap 250 index fell nearly 4% yesterday. Its last proper fall was -4.4%, 9 months ago, on 23-Dec-2022. Between those two dates, it is up 40%. What happens after such one-day falls? How long does it take to recover from such falls? Some quick analysis. (1/8)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

And @zerodhaonline quietly added Basket SIP functionality. 👌🏽

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

Sankaran Naren: 11 brilliant lessons learnt over 3 decades

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

21 days

A more granular look at how India stocks Price-Earnings multiples have expanded since 2019. Reading the box plot: Constructed with all stocks (ex-lenders), not with index since that skews metrics towards largest constituents. The red band is the median. The box represents the

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

3 years

Couldn’t agree more and so bloody hard to find. (just in case you or someone you know writes well, do check out our careers page)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

3 years

On Volatility

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

3 months

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

9 months

Why Nuclear Is the Best Energy - by Tomas Pueyo

Why Nuclear Is the Best Energy

It's the safest, most environmentally friendly, most reliable and sustainable, the best for politics, and can be the cheapest

unchartedterritories.tomaspueyo.com

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 months

We’ve all been prescribed classics like 'The Intelligent Investor' and 'A Random Walk down Wall Street,' and they're valuable, no doubt. However, there are also a bunch of lesser-known books that offer unique and eye-opening ways to think about investing. 📚This is a list of

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 years

How to fail at almost everything and still win big

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

What is your long-term expected return from equities? 12% is the most common assumption plugged into financial planning models. That’s how the index (NSE500) has done. The chart shows the outcome of a monthly 10k SIP into the NSE 500 since its inception in Jan 1995. /1 of 10

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 month

The Absurdity of Ransom Business Models: Paying to Avoid Pain Imagine going to a restaurant and being told, “That’ll be 200 rupees extra if you don’t want us to make your paneer tikka using yesterday’s paneer.” Absurd, but is it? Many companies now operate this way —charging

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

NSE has a ton of equity indices, 96 of them. Removing a bunch of the repetitive ones, we are still left with over 50. Chart below shows their CAGR since inception. All the way from 23% (Midcap150 Momentum50) to -3% (Realty). The Nifty has clocked 14% over 24 years. (1/10)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

The Ark forecasting model

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

10 months

Worst performing Nifty 500 stocks in 2023...

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

Looks like the @livemint analysis didn't consider dividends. Here's the table using Nifty Total Returns.

Coin by Zerodha

@CoinByZerodha

1 year

The longer your investment horizon, the higher the odds of better returns. Image: @ActusDei

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

Started an experiment in early April, to buy a bunch of stocks in the highest momentum sector, with no clue about the underlying businesses. Up 9.6% so far. Momentum is indeed the premier anomaly.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

10 months

The most common worry about investing tends to be about getting the timing wrong, i.e. investing just before a market correction. 📉 We flipped the question on its head and explored: What would happen if you were to get your timing consistently wrong? For over two decades.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 years

Fundamental Analysis Tools for Investors in India

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

3 months

Inside Japan’s 1980s Asset Price Bubble: The Lost Decades On February 22 this year, the Nikkei, Japan’s benchmark equity index, crossed 38,915 and closed at a lifetime high of 39,098. With most major global markets making lifetime highs over the last year, this should not be

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

In 2020, NIFTY saw its 3rd worst calendar year drawdown in 25 years and yet is YTD positive.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

In a world where YouTube and social media influencers are the new financial gurus, we decided to ask some of the greatest creators of humour about their thoughts on this trend. Their responses were as hilarious as they were insightful. 🧵👇🏼

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 months

“It is not surprising when wealthy people who know nothing about wine end up with cellars that aren’t much better stocked than their neighbours, and it should not be surprising when wealthy people who know nothing about happiness end up with lives that aren’t that much happier

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 months

The Halo Effect by Phil Rosenzweig is a seriously underrated book for investors. With < 500 ratings on amazon, I mean that literally. It challenges how we think about success in business and, by extension, investing. Imagine a company doing well – their profits are soaring,

Anoop

@CalmInvestor

11 months

The Halo Effect by Phil Rosenzweig A must-read for all investors. "The answer to the question What really works? (in investing) is simple: Nothing really works, at least not all the time. That’s not the nature of the business world."

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 month

Who would’ve predicted this

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

The first 5 days after the fall seem to set the tone, at least for the short term. The rough diagram shows how: Basically, if it falls further in the 5 days after, chances are it's still down 20 days later. If it rises, the opposite applies. Note the sample size is only 115 (6/8)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

📈🔍A "random portfolio" experiment: What if we picked 1,000 random equal-weight portfolios in Jan 2007 and held them all for 16 years? - How would they do versus the Nifty? - How would their outcomes vary depending on the number of stocks they held?

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

8 months

There’s this scene in the 1962 classic Lawrence of Arabia: Lawrence, a British Army lieutenant, is talking to his subordinates. He lights a cigarette for one of the men and then puts the match out with his fingers without flinching. The other man tries to do the same thing and

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

7 months

"Nothing in life is as important as we think it is while we are thinking about it." The first time I read those words, they made me pause and go back to read them again. Then the realisation arrived, not like a freight train, but like a drop of ink in water, slowly diffusing to

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

8 months

Looking for index funds with the lowest expense ratio but ignoring tracking error is like picking the cheapest flight ✈️ while ignoring the multiple stops🛑and long layovers⏳

Master And Student

@masternstudent

8 months

Tracking Difference in ETFs and Index Funds. #investing

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 years

[New Post] My conversation on investing with Raunak Onkar, Head Research at PPFAS Mutual Fund. Thanks @oraunak for your insights.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

This day, three years ago.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

This post wasn’t meant to be a post, but just a few things I scribbled for myself as things about money I’d tell my younger self. The list grew, and so here it is. The ten money messages I would share with my younger self: 1. You don’t need to think about investing as much as

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

The lumpy nature of one-year stock returns. There's no such thing as a steady 12% expected return over 1 year horizons. Every boom year 'borrows' its returns from the next few.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

One soft-landing for a rover, One giant leap for 🇮🇳

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

What major Nifty Indices have been up to: - No wonder all the excitement about micro caps! Mid and Smallcaps also strong. - IT struggling over the last 2 years - CPSE seeing a great 3-year run - Much-derided PSU Banks stark outperformers over last 3 years against the glamorous

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

A painstaking compilation of innovations from the stone age to almost present day. Love it when people care so much. Wish I knew who to credit.

DNA of Innovation

docs.google.com

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 months

The simplest, most jargon-free definition of marketing

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

10 months

Well, that one had a twist.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 years

The latest addition to the Calm Investor portfolio. The Buy-and-Hold-Forever kind.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

I have a quant investing joke but it’s only funny in the backtest.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

10 months

Best performing Nifty 500 stocks in 2023...

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

Sub: Your KYB pending Dear <Bank Name> As per common sense requirements, I am required to do KYB updation periodically for banks holding my deposits. Please submit KYB documents (list attached) to my registered email id or my home address. Regards,

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

The investment truth that probably gets the least attention: Investor Returns < Fund Returns. See it unfold every day. Fund Returns: A buy-and-hold investor's return Investor Returns: Impact of entry/exit Source: Morningstar Mind the gap India Study (Nov 2022)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 months

Before today, there were 119 instances of Nifty closing +3% or more in a day. Returns after such days ranged from +70% in 3 months to -40%. The medians are more sedate. Roughly 50:50 on whether returns are positive after 1-week, 1-month, or 3-months.

Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 months

The last +3% day was in Feb 2022, so it’s been a while. There have been 120 days when the Nifty closed up 3% or more.

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@CalmInvestor

3 months

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@CalmInvestor

4 months

Just another example of why timing exits and re-entries is tricky. Kotak Smallcap Fund - March 4: Restricts inflows - Next 9 days: Smallcap index down 22% (brilliant decision!) - July 2: Resumes inflows, smallcap index up 15% above restriction point This is not a dunk on the

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 years

[New Post] DMA as a simple investment tool

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 years

Traditional equity research reports rarely go to the depth of analysis @drvijaymalik does. Here’s an exceptional example. Highly recommended for all fundamental investors.

Analysis: Omkar Speciality Chemicals Limited

In-depth fundamental analysis of Omkar Speciality Chemicals equity research report containing financial, business, valuation, management, annual report analysis

www.drvijaymalik.com

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

Buffett's biggest mistake: In 1993, Berkshire acquired Dexter Shoe Company for $433 million. Dexter was a solid, well-run business and one of the last remaining U.S.-based shoe manufacturers. 1/6

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

One of those days...

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

Nifty50 or Nifty50 Equal Weight. Which index has done better? If one had to guess, intuitively, it'd be the market cap weighted Nifty 50 given successful mega caps automatically get a higher allocation. Comparative data, though, is interesting. (1/5)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

Stocks with the best long-term returns tend to have spent less time in significant drawdowns. Probably intuitive, but handy to keep in mind when hoping and holding on to the ones down 60-70% #stocks #analysis

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@CalmInvestor

1 year

The Nifty is up 10.5% since April this year even as the consolidated PE is almost the same. Implies the rise has been accompanied by a proportional increase in earnings.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

Happening right now (at a large corporation near you)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

One of those days...

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

How to fail at almost everything and still win big

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

11 months

Mad respect for Rohit for starting with intent in a crunch game. Irrespective of where he ends up, this is legendary “don’t-second guess-the-process” stuff. #CWC2023

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

Random Observation: The last time the % of stocks above 50DMA crossed below stocks above 200DMA, all hell broke loose.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

7 months

Current drawdown levels from peak across all stocks: Median Large Caps: -9.8% Mid Caps: -18.8% Small Caps: -21.9% Micro Caps: -37.5%

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 months

This alternate “Mutual Funds Sahi hai” reality where star cricketers rely on mutual funds for their retirement is fine for awareness. But an asset allocation thumb rule I learnt early on was to think of the Equity-Debt profile of not just “investments” but “Income + Investments”

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@CalmInvestor

2 months

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@CalmInvestor

2 years

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

6 months

(1/3) The size (market cap) of the median Large-Mid-Small-everything else company from 2006 to now. 1⃣ Today’s median smallcap is 1.5x the size of the median Largecap in 2006. 2⃣ The median midcap today is bigger than the 2016 Largecap

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

When markets make new highs, the most frequent (and logical) question: "Isn't it too risky to invest? Is it time to sell?" Turns out not necessarily. Some quick analysis on why. 👇🏼(1/4)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 months

Imagine a fund manager with 20-20 Hindsight. The investment team at Hindsight Capital can pick the perfect Buy-and-Hold portfolio from the available universe of stocks to deliver the best possible return. (1/6)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 months

Unconfirmed live footage of servers at brokerages.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 years

@kimjongun3_0 @deepakshenoy @soumeet_sarkar Here's the heat map representation, also in the post

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@CalmInvestor

3 months

“You either die a growth stock or live long enough to become a dividend stock.”

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

4 months

Investors used to have to wait years before new all-time highs 📊

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@CalmInvestor

2 months

We analysed 7,527 price targets across 440 of the 501 Nifty 500 companies that have 2 or more analyst targets (sourced from Bloomberg). Excluded the 29 cos that only have 1 analyst covering them. Remaining 32 have none. A quick summary: Analysts expect 282 (65%) companies to

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

11 months

Poor Charlie's Almanack is now available to read for free, courtesy Stripe Press.

Poor Charlie’s Almanack: The Essential Wit and Wisdom of Charles T. Munger

Experience the wit and wisdom of Charles T. Munger online, for free. Originally published in 2005, this compilation of 11 talks by the legendary Berkshire Hathaway vice-chairman has become a touchs...

www.stripe.press

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

8 months

Book store visit was cut short so took a picture on the way out. Uploaded to chatgpt to list the books on the shelf, which it did, easily. Blows me away that this is trivial for AI.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

11 months

Interesting data points from a recent Mckinsey paper on international travel trends in India: Rising incomes + growing appetite for travel = India’s outbound tourism could surge from 13M trips today to 80-90M trips by 2040. Major opportunity. (1/4)

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

The median fund in almost all market cap categories: large, mid, flexi, multicap, has struggled to beat its benchmark over 10 years (2013 - 2022). Smallcap funds have been the exception. There's a reason we refer to the index as a formidable adversary.

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@CalmInvestor

8 months

Why and How Korea became a global entertainment powerhouse. Also heard this from someone who was there firsthand in the early 90s. Adversity breeds innovation.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

8 months

The buy and hold stock pickers will not like this. Not one bit.

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

9 months

For a lot of us growing up middle class meant money was a little like the Sun. You always felt its presence or absence, but you never looked directly at it. That and other money messages I'd share with my younger self:

Ten Money messages I would share with my younger self - Capitalmind

As unintuitive as it'll sound coming from an investment manager, you probably don't need to be thinking about investing as much as you think you do. That and nine other money messages I'd share with...

premium.capitalmind.in

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 years

This could be the most disruptive thing to happen to Indian education. About effing time.

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@CalmInvestor

7 years

How to Get Lucky

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

5 months

The CNX500 recovered from a 7% fall in three days. I plotted past CNX500 drawdowns, their intensity (% fall from peak), and duration (calendar days to get back to previous high). The darker the colour, the longer it took to recover. 1995 - 1999 (-47% 4.6 yrs) 2000 - 2004 (-68%

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

3 years

"I once asked him about his best figures in ODIs. ‘One for twenty-one,’ he said, which surprised me, till he added, poker-faced, ‘four in hospital.’" - Ravi Shastri on Jeff Thomson in his new book: Stargazing

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@CalmInvestor

8 months

ITC shares "tank" a staggering 2.5% as British American Tobacco considers selling stake. And in other news, local man's net worth "plummets" after buying a candy bar.🍫

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@CalmInvestor

6 years

The complete list of 2019 stock recommendations

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

2 years

Terry Pratchett was so incredibly good. This might as well be all fintwit discussions 🎯

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

Notes from Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia

Notes from Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia - The Calm Investor

Notes from Outlive: The Science and Art of Longevity by Peter Attia

thecalminvestor.com

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@CalmInvestor

8 months

“The market doesn’t care how clever you are. There is no alpha for the degree of difficulty when investing.” 20 Lessons From 20 Years of Managing Money - A Wealth of Common Sense

20 Lessons From 20 Years of Managing Money - A Wealth of Common Sense

Some stuff I've learned over the years.

awealthofcommonsense.com

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

That's it. This is not an attempt to forecast but to understand the base rates. For the unlikely few who're curious about those 115 instances of 3% or more falls: Do let me know about any mistakes you spot in the analysis. 🙏

Capitalmind: After the Smallcap Index Falls > 3%

docs.google.com

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@CalmInvestor

9 months

Advice from 30 people who found out they were dying:

‘My life will be short. So on the days I can, I really live’: 30 dying people explain what really...

Facing death, these people found a clarity about how to live

www.theguardian.com

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@CalmInvestor

1 year

Nifty announced changes to some indices effective 28th Sep, including the High Beta 50. PSA: HB50 is one of the worst indexes to follow. The index's design is so bad that it fits Munger's "All I want to know is where I'm going to die, so I'll never go there" criteria. (1/5)

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@CalmInvestor

2 years

A helpful decision-making framework for the next time someone asks you to take on a low-priority task. Marking @deepakshenoy

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Anoop

@CalmInvestor

1 year

@uptickr @mysandz @Prashanth_Krish @OldSchoolFinanc @moneyworks4u_fa IMO not either or. You need both to get a sense of lumpiness of past returns. Especially if you're picking for the future.

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@CalmInvestor

1 month

Since the Fed Rate cut is all everyone’s talking about, here’s a quick look. (1/3) Number of rate changes and the average Fed Funds Rate each year. Green columns are the number of rate cuts, and red columns are the rate increases. 1995 was the only calendar year that had both.

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@CalmInvestor

2 years

Nifty Total Returns YTD at -4% after a marginally up March.

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@CalmInvestor

1 year

"Sell in May and go away," an adage as old as time. Just as a fun exercise, we analyzed this strategy's effectiveness in the Indian market. Interestingly, it outperformed in 10 out of 23 calendar years! See table 👇🏼 (1/3)

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@CalmInvestor

1 year

Plan less, Live More

Plan less, Live More - Capitalmind

Conventional financial planning works well when we have perfect information about our financial future. Few in the real world have that luxury. We don't know what and how much we will want to spend...

premium.capitalmind.in

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