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@CSBets23

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sharing a few personal bets backed by data, take at your own risk 😄

Joined September 2023
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
What’s the excuse now for this not being a Foden shot? We can’t count clear shot attempts because it hits the leg in front of him? 😂 @Orbinho @OptaJoe @OptaAnalyst
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Fan of these as a foul prone Ugarte will be battling two mids who can draw easy fouls. Ugarte 2.02 fouls p90 - 3,2,4,3,3,1,3,1,1,1,0,2,2,2,2,3,3,2,3,1,0,1,0,1,4 -2,2,3,3,0 CL Frenkie draws 1.34 p90, Gundo 1.36 p90. Gundo particularly excellent in last 10 - 3,2,3,2,0,2,2,1,0,2
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
@OptaPlay 3 - the number of shots OPTA should have awarded for Phil Foden vs. Liverpool. Foden had a deliberate shot attempt in the 94th but OPTA decided not to count it. Unaccountable.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Nice read for us here, Gabriel fouling twice and Kane drawing 6 fouls.
@scbets98
ShaunC bets
6 months
A Gabriel foul on kane on the 48th min means this is a easy winner ✅✅ Hit the ❤️ if you tailed us here for a easy winner 👍🏻
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
@scbets98 @Orbinho @OptaJoe @OptaAnalyst Bang on Shaun, this is the exact sort of cop out from OPTA that bails out the books. Clear attempt at a shot and some nonsense ruling undoubtedly to wipe it off, I suppose Foden was passing to himself.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Easy as that, won by the 25th minute. Booked for a foul on Nunez as well 👍
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Odds for Hien look generous to me. Few CBs play more aggressively than Hien - expecting him to play into Nunez and the Anfield crowd to demand a whistle. Atalanta fouls - 1,0,1,2,3 Verona fouls (45+) - 2,0,2,2,1,2,0,0,2,0,1,3,3,2,2,1,3,3,5,1,1,1,4,0,3,1,2,1,3,1 0.8 career avg
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Saka has been fouled in 38/42 games in which he’s played 60+ and blanked in just 1 home game vs PSV. For comparison, he is 1.04 to draw 1 vs Bournemouth at home and Everton will be similar, so price looks generous for only 3 games. The risk in the pricing is a potential injury.
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
Ogbene league shots: 1,1,2,2,2,0,1,1,1,0,4,3,1,1,4,3 - Only blanks away to Villa and Brentford - Hit form lately moving to a RWB role, causing a lot of questions for opp - Shots have soared with 16 shots in his last 6 games at RWB - 7 shots between his last 2 vs. Utd + Liverpool
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
@richardpoker11 @Orbinho @OptaJoe @OptaAnalyst Yes, really want an explanation from Orbinho on this one as it is factually a shot. Omitting it from the data does nothing besides benefit bookmakers.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Soucek will have increased defensive responsibilities in DM. Numbers have fallen this season to a 1.3 average, from a 2.1 average in 22/23 due to a more attacking role but he’s shown potential with 4 tackles in both of his last two starts without Alvarez. 1.9 avg across career
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Reguilon fouls: 2,2,0,1,2,0 - Struggled vs a similar winger in Kudus and expecting him to get tight to Saka - Ex-Spurs, booked in 2/4 derbies - Also 0,1,2,1,1 for Utd this season Havertz - fouled in last 20 games - fouled in last 11 home games - fouled in 24/28
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Big fan of this angle, alongside Shaun who is always dropping new angles 👍
@scbets98
ShaunC bets
6 months
🚨 🚨 Collaboration Bet 🚨 🚨 Teaming up with @CSBets23 here who has recently got up and going on twitter, Like myself he shares value plays and always provides reasoning for all picks, Definitely worth the follow if you already haven’t Leave a ❤️ if your tailing this bet
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
vs Saka. Mazraoui averaging 2.5 tackles p90 and 1.3 fouls p90 in his time at Bayern. LB/LWB tackles vs Arsenal 0,3,1,4,4,9,0,0,0,3,2,4,0,3,4,4,6,5,3,3,2,3,3,6,1,2,1,4,1,1,3,1,5,2,2,2,1,8,1,5,1,3,3,3 Saka fouled 2.16 p90 (3.26 in CL). 3 tackles, 2 fouls by Davies in reverse.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Wouldn’t usually go near a friendly (due to sub risk) but prices look generous considering positional change. Averages 2.4 shots pg as ST across career. 2,3,2,2,4,0 playing ST for Arsenal this season, averages 2 shots pg.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Messi fouls won: 0,2,1,0,3,2,2,3,3,3 (60+) Busquets fouls won: 1,3,2,2,1,3,4,2,1,0,5,1,2,3,1,2,1,1,1,0,1,2,1 (60+) Negri fouls: 2,2,1,0,1,0,2,1,0,1,1,3,1,1,1,1,1 (2 in both of his 2 starts this season). Up against Nacho Gil (RW) who draws a high 2.97 fouls p90 for New England.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Vini has drawn 3,3,4,0,1 in H2H’s vs City. In Walker’s absence he likely matches up against Akanji, who should be a more foul prone opponent in a less familiar role. Would expect him to be tasked with handling Vini aggressively. Vini averaging 2.31 fouls won p90 this year.
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
Tosin shots: 1,2,1,1,1,1,3,1,0,1,0,0,1,0 - Shot in 6/7 home games - Main set piece threat towering over opp at 6’5 - Brighton leak shots on the road rising to 13.4 pg - Brighton leak 5 corners per game on avg away which increases opportunities for Tosin, Fulham avg 7 at home
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Odds for Hien look generous to me. Few CBs play more aggressively than Hien - expecting him to play into Nunez and the Anfield crowd to demand a whistle. Atalanta fouls - 1,0,1,2,3 Verona fouls (45+) - 2,0,2,2,1,2,0,0,2,0,1,3,3,2,2,1,3,3,5,1,1,1,4,0,3,1,2,1,3,1 0.8 career avg
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Kim gets this one over the line though ✅
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Saka has been fouled 5,4,2,3,5,3,0 times in the CL with the 5 being the reverse. Should be double teamed tonight which will increase chances of drawing fouls, direct opp Mazraoui also a good fouler. Musiala fouled 3 times in reverse and fouled 1.98 times per 90.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Onyeka shots (60+): 1,1,3,1,2,0,3,2,3,0 - Avgs 1.89 shots p90 - 8 shots in 318 mins in <60 min apps - 3 shots away at the Etihad recently - 1 shot away at Anfield in a 44 minute app - Only blanked in 1 PL start, albeit vs Arsenal (H) - Other blank vs Newport in cup (62 mins)
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Saka has been fouled 5,4,2,3,5,3,0 times in the CL with the 5 being the reverse. Should be double teamed tonight which will increase chances of drawing fouls, direct opp Mazraoui also a good fouler. Musiala fouled 3 times in reverse and fouled 1.98 times per 90.
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
Great odds here against the data from @ACFootballBets . The last 4 strikers to visit the Emirates have drawn 16 fouls between them (4,4,2,6) and 8 of the last 10 strikers to play there have drawn at least 1. Also taking a single on 3 won as Saliba aggressive lately too.
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@ACFootballBets
ACFB
5 months
2U 0.5U Joint bet with @CSBets23 Backed DCL the other week and he delivered so let's go again 🙂 DCL 1+ foul won in his last 9 league games - 1,3,4,1,5,2,1,3,1. Cons been on the Gabriel angle previously and loves it. Gabriel 1+ foul in last 10 at home - 2,3,2,2,1,1,2,2,1,1
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Running this back again Semedo fouls won: 1,2,1,0,3,2,1,1,1,2,0,0,1,0,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,1,0,1,2,0,0 - 1+ in 9 of last 10 - 2+ in 4 of last 10 - Last week RWB Lamptey was fouled twice in a half by Fulham - RBs fouled by Fulham last 10: 2,1,1,0,2,0,0,1,1,2 - 7/10
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
Semedo fouls won: 2,1,0,3,2,1,1,1,2,0,0,1,0,1,1,1,1,1,0,0,1,0,1,2,0,0 - 1+ in 8 of last 9 - 2+ in 4 of last 9 - Newcastle avg 10 fouls per game, rising to 11 at home - Wolves games foul heavy with 12/11 avg, last H2H Newcastle made 16 fouls - Ref Robinson avgs high 23 fouls pg
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
❌ One of Wolves’ worst games all season foul wise with just 16 fouls overall, Semedo’s form ends here. O’Neill starting him in a 4 back instead of his usual WB role can’t have helped. Meanwhile every other full back drew a foul 😂
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
RB/RWB tackles vs Burnley: 2,2,1,2,2,2,4,1,4,1,3,1,2,1,4,3,4,4,3,2,4,2,4,2,3,1,2,2,3,0 Smith tackles: 2,4,1,0,2,1,0,1,1,2,3,0,2,1,0,1 Less keen on Smith as a tackler but opp wise it’s hard to fault the price, since Odobert began starting vs Brighton RBs avg 2.1 tackles pg
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
1.83 line wins, seems like the 2 each could and maybe should have won but Michael Oliver let a card or two go. ✅
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Romero 4,4,1 fouls in NLD. NLD averages 3 cards each across last 9. Each 10+ in 9/9, 20+ in 5/9. Saka fouled 3,3,1,1,2,2,3,1 in NLD + fouled 37/41 games (60+). Maddison fouled 3 times last NLD + fouled 23/23 games (incl subs). Expect tempers to flare with the stakes.
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
2 fouls here and a tackle off the longshot ✅
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
Has made 3 fouls in both game against Spurs this season and averages 0.77 fouls p90. Blanked in last 3 but Bernardo consistently hitting 1 vs bigger teams. 1,2,1,2,1,1,2,2 in all his recent bigger games against Chelsea, Real, Villa, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool and United.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
3 shots and a goal ✅
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
As usual the team is news is unkind 😂 replaced by Tchouameni so I’m taking these instead. Tchouameni averages 3.3 attempted tackles and 2.5 tackles made across his career as a CDM. Jude has won a foul in all bar 1 game this season.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Camavinga fouls won - 0,3,2,3,3,3,2,3,4,4,6,5,4,4,1,1,4,1,1,4,1,2,4,4 - Avgs 3.1 p90 this season, rising to a very high 3.46 p90 across Real’s last 20 games - Drew 5 fouls in 35 mins worth of sub mins across 2 most recent sub apps - Turpin avgs high 24.3 fouls pg (25.5 in CL)
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
4 fouls won for Maddison. ✅
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
Maddison fouls won: 2,2,2,3,2,4,2,3,5,1,4,2,4,2,4,4,2,3,3,5,1,2 - 2+ in 21/23 - Avgs 3.09 fouls won per 90. - Also won 2 in 36’ vs Liverpool and 1 in 27 vs Chelsea from the bench recently. - 2,2,3,4,5,1,4,4,4,2,3,1 at home
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
✅ Headed shot from a corner
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Nunez offside 1.31 times p90 (rising to 1.54 across the last 30) and been offside in 24 different games this season. Both teams carded in last 8 derbies and 9 of last 10.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Both winners early into the SH ✅✅
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Just to add some more research - Players Ugarte fouled this CL campaign: Newcastle: Gordon, Almiron, Bruno G - 1 mid AC Milan: Krunic, Leao, Musah - 2 mids AC Milan (60 mins): Leao, Theo Newcastle (60 mins): Bruno G, Almiron - 1 mid
@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Fan of these as a foul prone Ugarte will be battling two mids who can draw easy fouls. Ugarte 2.02 fouls p90 - 3,2,4,3,3,1,3,1,1,1,0,2,2,2,2,3,3,2,3,1,0,1,0,1,4 -2,2,3,3,0 CL Frenkie draws 1.34 p90, Gundo 1.36 p90. Gundo particularly excellent in last 10 - 3,2,3,2,0,2,2,1,0,2
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Just the 1 foul tonight ✅
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Playing these again after he had 3 fouls and a card at Anfield. Atalanta have forced a save in every game this season and their opponents average 4 saves against them at home.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
@hjedwards_ Not starting mate, can still cash out if you placed and haven’t already 👍
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
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@CSBets23
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5 months
can only laugh at this, first game all season that this loses at home in the league, against the highest fouling side. Should have won but multiple advantages or no calls from Coote - no idea how play wasn’t stopped for the first foul.
@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Saka has been fouled in 38/42 games in which he’s played 60+ and blanked in just 1 home game vs PSV. For comparison, he is 1.04 to draw 1 vs Bournemouth at home and Everton will be similar, so price looks generous for only 3 games. The risk in the pricing is a potential injury.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Playing these again after he had 3 fouls and a card at Anfield. Atalanta have forced a save in every game this season and their opponents average 4 saves against them at home.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Odds for Hien look generous to me. Few CBs play more aggressively than Hien - expecting him to play into Nunez and the Anfield crowd to demand a whistle. Atalanta fouls - 1,0,1,2,3 Verona fouls (45+) - 2,0,2,2,1,2,0,0,2,0,1,3,3,2,2,1,3,3,5,1,1,1,4,0,3,1,2,1,3,1 0.8 career avg
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Romero 4,4,1 fouls in NLD. NLD averages 3 cards each across last 9. Each 10+ in 9/9, 20+ in 5/9. Saka fouled 3,3,1,1,2,2,3,1 in NLD + fouled 37/41 games (60+). Maddison fouled 3 times last NLD + fouled 23/23 games (incl subs). Expect tempers to flare with the stakes.
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
Moumbagna fouls from data available (60+ mins) Marseille: 2,2,0 Bodø/Glimt: 1,4,1,2,3,1,2,3,0,2,1,2,2,6,0,5,2,2,1,3,2,1,2,4,0,6,1,1 Kristiansund: 0,0,0,2,1,0,1,0,2,1,2,1,0,4,2,3,4,4,5,4,8,1,2,1,2,1,3,3,3 Sikan drawn in CL: 1,0,3,2,2,2,1 vs Meite 1.36 + Gigot 1.00 fouls p90
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
Veltman and Konsa fouls won look decent here, Jones averaging 23 fouls per game - 21 to 20 foul split earlier in season. Konsa good form recently 0,1,3,2,3,3,2,4 and avgs 1.91 p90. Veltman avgs 2.22 p90 and vs. foul prone Rodgers 1.60 fouls p90.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
Bernardo vs Arsenal: Cards: 5 yellows in 9 starts Fouls: 1,3,3,4,0,0,1,1,2 Bernardo has shown increased competitiveness vs Arsenal in last 2 seasons, increasing his foul output a lot + booked twice, expecting similar in this title clash. Havertz fouled 26/30, 1+ last 22 games.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Kimmich won: 2,1,2,1,0,2,1,1,1,1,2,0,1,0,1,0,0,1,2,2,1,0,1,0,0,1,0,0,0,2,1 - Fouled 10 of last 11 starts - Expect him to relieve pressure in possession by going down for easy free kicks - Martinelli/Jesus/Havertz good foul matchups. Saka fouled 32/36, 1 blank (H) in 69’ vs PSV.
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Camavinga fouls won - 0,3,2,3,3,3,2,3,4,4,6,5,4,4,1,1,4,1,1,4,1,2,4,4 - Avgs 3.1 p90 this season, rising to a very high 3.46 p90 across Real’s last 20 games - Drew 5 fouls in 35 mins worth of sub mins across 2 most recent sub apps - Turpin avgs high 24.3 fouls pg (25.5 in CL)
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@CSBets23
CS
5 months
Maddison fouls won: 2,2,2,3,2,4,2,3,5,1,4,2,4,2,4,4,2,3,3,5,1,2 - 2+ in 21/23 - Avgs 3.09 fouls won per 90. - Also won 2 in 36’ vs Liverpool and 1 in 27 vs Chelsea from the bench recently. - 2,2,3,4,5,1,4,4,4,2,3,1 at home
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
0 fouls, meanwhile Kim comes on for him and makes 2 on Saka 🙄
@CSBets23
CS
6 months
vs Saka. Mazraoui averaging 2.5 tackles p90 and 1.3 fouls p90 in his time at Bayern. LB/LWB tackles vs Arsenal 0,3,1,4,4,9,0,0,0,3,2,4,0,3,4,4,6,5,3,3,2,3,3,6,1,2,1,4,1,1,3,1,5,2,2,2,1,8,1,5,1,3,3,3 Saka fouled 2.16 p90 (3.26 in CL). 3 tackles, 2 fouls by Davies in reverse.
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@CSBets23
CS
8 months
Dier fouls drawn in Bayern starts: 1,1,0,1 (+ drew 1 in 4 mins vs Bochum and 44 mins vs Union) - Highlight is vs Sallai and Holer averaging 2.20 + 1.11 fouls p90 each - CB fouled numbers vs Freiburg in recent games: 2/1, 3/0/1, 0/1/0, 4/3/4 - Kim fouled once all season so avoided
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
Saka has been in prolific form winning fouls of late, since Porto at home he has been on a 9 game streak of winning 2+ fouls - 4,2,2,5,3,2,4,2,4 and wins 2.27 p90 across the year. The toughest ask will be the away game vs. Utd but his H2H fouls won is a solid 1,4,2,3,5,3,3.
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@CSBets23
CS
7 months
@stats_player Any chance of a chances created tab for the app with Sky reintroducing the market? 👀
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@CSBets23
CS
6 months
@TheTipHippo Hopefully get the rub of the green with who he fouls, could be a hard market to crack in the middle of the park but we’ll see🤞
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