This is my close range view of the Minden, IA tornado at 5:43PM yesterday. We were on 360th a few miles east of town. Incredible violent motion at the base with debris being thrown out. Watch the collar cloud work its way down. Common characteristic of violent tornadoes.
#iawx
Tomorrow’s severe weather threat will be over one of the worst spots for radar coverage east of the Rockies. Lowest scan over parts of Northeast TX is ~10,000FT, which can be a problem when trying to detect shallow mesocyclones and QLCS-type tornadic circulations.
#txwx
4 reasons Tuesday’s setup is more concerning than yesterday:
1.) Insanely favorable synoptics
2.) Deeper surface with very strong/backed low level flow
3.) Bigger, looping hodographs compared to the straighter ones we began with yesterday
4.) Higher dew points/more CAPE
#iawx
Very excited to become a full-time meteorologist at KCCI starting June 23. I’ve enjoyed filling in over the past year and getting to work with everyone at the station. Looking forward to much more to come!
#iawx
Not only does
@CF3_Weather
become a meteorologist this weekend - he is officially joining the
@kcci
Storm Team 8 weather team June 23rd! Central Iowa is incredibly lucky to have him. His severe weather skill set will prove to be invaluable.
Still trying to wrap my mind around how deep that vortex hole is. Not a BWER, a VORTEX HOLE. Notice how it doesn't tilt/shift much with increasing beam height. Nearly vertical through the storm. Extremely strong vertical motion with this.
#okwx
Alright
#wxtwitter
which one of these NWS Watch/Warning maps is the most impressive in your opinion?
1. August 2023 Heat Wave
2. Feb 2021 Deep South Winter Storm
3. Feb 2021 Arctic Outbreak
4. Jan 2019 Midwest Arctic Outbreak
Vote/comment below!
#uswx
The 2021 National Weather Association Foundation (
@nwafoundation1
) Broadcast Meteorology Scholarship is awarded to Trey Fulbright (
@CF3_Weather
) from Iowa State University. 👏
[1] Seeing a robust signal between October 21-31 for a large scale pattern shift that would support a severe weather event from the Mid MS Valley-Ohio Valley. Strong signal of a prolonged (-) PNA with a (+) AO. As Childs et. al (2018) and Kim et. al (2024) point out...
#wxtwitter
This is horrifying satellite imagery. Multiple counties in the Texas Panhandle on fire tonight due to dry/windy conditions. Originally, winds were strong out of the west dow sloping off the higher terrain and heating up/drying out. Cold front blew through and kicked up…
#txwx
After living, traveling, and or chasing in different tornado hot spots in the US, this is what I came up with. Green=great, yellow=okay or proceed w/caution; Red=not good.
#wxtwitter
What do y’all think?
#stormchase
[1] The first potentially major trough of this series will eject into the Central US this Thursday & Friday. There are and have been well pronounced difference in trough shape, tilt, and strength between the GFS & ECMWF. GFS favors a neutral-tilt, bowling ball w/ stronger...
#iawx
When comparing the visual structure of the
#Greenfield
tornado, I see resemblances of Heston 1990 and Andover 1991. Solid thick cone/stove pipe (never wedged out); Violent upward motion along the outer edges. Heston really stands out, except much lower precip environment.
#iawx
The National Weather Service is on top of all of these tornado warnings tonight. But this event is screaming that all radar gaps need to be covered ASAP in tornado prone regions east of the Rockies!
Mid April looks very interesting from a synoptic scale. Like we’ve seen several times this winter-early spring, a shift to (-) PNA with a neutral to (+) NAO have really helped enhance large scale troughing in the west, ridging in the southeast. Climatologically, this…
#iawx
#txwx
FRIDAY SEVERE RISK:
1). AM convection likely
2.) Break midday-early PM as mid-level dry slot wraps in from SW. Leads to some clearing, heating, & steeper MLLRs as moisture advection continues from south.
3.) Areas to watch: TP into warm sector; sfc low/occluded boundary...
#iawx
Increasing concern that storm mode may initially favor discrete supercells tomorrow along an arcing dry line. With the dry line arcing back and 0-6km shear vectors at an angle to the initiating boundary, storms that erupt will be less inclined to “run” into each other.
#txwx
Watching tonight’s 00z GFS come in for next Tuesday/Wed and can’t help but notice some similarities in the synoptics of this system compared to the severe weather event on February 28-March 1, 2017. Northern IL into East-Central MO have my eye for discrete convection.
#ilwx
#mowx
Yesterday’s severe weather event was not a “bust” as that would imply no severe weather occurred at all. The tornado-driven high risk area greatly underperformed, however, the hail and especially wind damage areas verified well. Note some of the wind damage may be QLCS tornado…
[1] SEVERE WEATHER THREAT 4.04.2023 (THREAD)
There will be three primary zones to monitor for severe storm development tomorrow. The thread below will break down the synoptics, environment, and uncertainties in each area:
#iawx
1925 TRI-STATE v DEC 10, 2021 TORNADO ENVIRONMENTS...
[1] 500mb: Both days featured a fairly broad, slightly positively tilted trough with strong divergence/diffluence east of the trough axis. 2021 had stronger flow from phasing of STJ & more amplitude to the trough.
#wxhistory
Clear westward/slower trend with the evolution of Tuesday's system compared to yesterday's model runs. Both GFS/EURO progging this look with a slightly more amplified trough as well. Still some phasing/consolidation issues b/w northern stream and STJ, but liking the...
#ilwx
#mowx
HWY 4 near Palo Alto/ Pocahontas Line: Just had an 18 Wheeler spin out in front of us as the leading edge of the derecho passed over. Dangerous storms!
#iawx
@NWSDesMoines
@KCCINews
Two years ago tonight, I was reviewing for my Synoptic Meteorology final and watching water vapor imagery in awe at the shortwave trough moving through the Rockies knowing the next day was going to be crazy. Then SPC issued the farthest north December moderate risk at 06z…
#iawx
[1] Threat for significant severe weather is INCREASING on Friday across Central and Eastern Iowa. Models have slowed down with the overall forward progression of the synoptic storm system and have all trended toward a deeper, closed off storm system with stronger flow…
#iawx
As bad as May 21, 2024 in
#iawx
was, this tornado outbreak would've been much worse had storm mode favored more discrete supercells and less mergers & upscale growth. Here are some of the factors that led to the storm mode from the day:
There are three days in my life that would’ve verified as 60% SIG Tornado probabilities in the area I lived according to SPC Hindcast charts: 2/5/08, 12/15/21, 4/26/24.
#tornado
#forecasting
Data/Charts: Gensini, Et al. 2020
So glad I came to Iowa State to pursue a degree in meteorology. Thankful for all the professors who instructed and guided us and the wonderful friendships made along the way!
#cycloneforever
#cyclonepower
#isu
#iawx
Loaded gun sounding from FWD. Very strong low level winds and low level shear. Critical angle a little small in DFW, but even better, more streamwise hodographs from Dallas and points east. Very dangerous setup.
#txwx
Next week's 500mb ridge progged by the Euro over the East Coast will be in the 99.5% tile. This means only 0.5% of ridges for 00z 31 Oct were stronger. GFS and Canadian have a stronger ridge (591-592dm.) Higher heights indicative of a warmer column as thickness expands.
#uswx
Severe storms are increasingly likely late Sunday evening into Sunday night as a second, stronger upper level disturbance tracks over the state. Strong instability and strong deep layer shear will support supercells with a large hail threat. Damaging winds becoming likely…
Newest HRRR/3km NAM trending higher with low level moisture (mid 60s dews) and a more unstable environment (indicated by more negative LIs) co-located with moisture plume. Dry line mixes well into SW Iowa tomorrow. Volatile setup pending the timing of convective waves.
#iawx
18z HRRR coming in with a slower progression & slightly farther westward alignment of the jet streak and low level jet tomorrow. Surface features also farther west with a considerable increase of instability. Watch this trend closely as it could mean bigger problems...
#iawx
Sitting on HWY 377 in Aubrey looking north into the circulation. Striation associated with leading edge of mesocyclone passing north of us. Cannot make anything else out.
#dfwwx
#txwx
@NWSFortWorth
Y'all this isn't just a supercell....This is a Colorado Super DUPER Cell. Free handed these with my DSLR Wednesday night between Lamar and Two Buttes, CO.
#cowx
#stormchase
Here’s my video from just north of Lennox on Sycamore Ave (Old HWY 49) according to Google Maps with added contrast since I forgot to roll down windows. Time was 7:21PM.
#iawx
@NWSDesMoines
Growing potential for a significant severe weather threat next Monday afternoon & possibly Tuesday. Begins Monday in Western Iowa/Eastern Nebraska. Models have been very consistent with a powerhouse trough taking on a negative tilt (leans back rearward)
#iawx
…
FRI SEVERE THREAT:
Severe storms are likely in the outlined area Friday afternoon-evening. Models getting in range and show a plume of low-mid 60s dews advecting north w/ strongly sheared warm sector into a low that reaches maturity over NE before occluding mid afternoon.
#iawx
Forecast soundings from the HRRR/3km NAM taken near Ottumwa by 4-5pm today. This is where the environment will be supportive of significant severe weather.
#iawx
Radar is estimating well over 200mph gate to gate shear with the long track
#tornado
that just hit Dawson Springs, KY. This is the most insane supercell and insane tornado I’ve ever watched on radar tonight. Unbelievable stuff happening here.
#kywx
First time assisting with in-studio tornado coverage yesterday with
@ChrisGWxKCCI
. The last several months have been very busy with for severe weather in Iowa including two very unusual cool season events—December 15, 2021 and March 5, 2022.
#iawx
10th anniversary of the 2012 DFW/North Texas tornado outbreak. Two tornadic supercells prompted dual tornado emergencies to be issued in Dallas and Tarrant counties. The strongest tornado of the day was an EF-3 that hit Forney.
#txwx
#dfwwx
[1] Overnight models continue to show a very dynamic neutral/negatively tilted shortwave coming up late Friday-Sunday lifting north from the Southern Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. This system *could* impact southeast 1/2 of IA depending on how progressive…
#iawx
Basic or general meteorology should be a required course in the public school system. Every person, every age, every income gap, every career, in some form or fashion is impacted by weather and a changing climate!
Had the opportunity and privilege to meet Dr. Greg Forbes at
@CentralIowaNWA
conference! Forbes gave two amazing talks on how disaster prone we are today despite improved communication/predictability and 1974 Super Outbreak. I grew up watching Forbes on
@weatherchannel
.
#iawx
SEVERE STORMS LIKELY FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT…
[1] As the upper high begins to contract, this will allow a shortwave trough to drive a cold front south. 90° temps, 75-80° dews, and steep lapse rates will yield anywhere from 3000-5500+ CAPE over Central & Northern IA…
#iawx
#Milton
is a smaller system and has a tighter core with deeper and persistent convection near its center. This is unlike
#Helene
which took longer to establish an inner core. This could get nasty really quick, especially Monday & Tuesday
[1] Tuesday continues to have a very substantial severe weather look for Central-Eastern IA, Western IL, northern MO. Neutral-negatively tilted shortwave with jet max arriving at peak heating. Jet max overspreading the warm sector with strong height falls, a...
#iawx
Let’s really hope this doesn’t come to fruition. This would result in some of the worst heat we’ve seen all summer and quite frankly in several years. 😬
#iawx