Former policy analyst; now a strategic communications professional.
Trying to plant trees whose shade I may never know.
I comment on CAF, economics, politics.
I'm starting to get severely worried for the safety of teachers.
These people are making demands which are impossible to satisfy, because they want something to stop which isn't happening. They're unhinged, and angry.
It's a dangerous combination.
Dear Public Educators:
You work for us, earning our tax dollars, and if you keep up this indoctrination bullshit. We will fire you.
-The People of Alberta-
If Canada is serious about operating 12 submarines, this is the biggest barrier.
According to
@Comd_RCN
, Canada has 215 qualified submariners. Minimum, we probably need 4x that.
Also, 5-10 years of experience takes 5-10 years to acquire, and these boats need that experience.
One of the benefits of a well developed military capability is that potential adversaries have to worry about what you *could* do with it, not just what you plan to do, and invest resources in countering that capability.
This is an underrated initiative.
The runway extension means that the incoming CC-330 tankers can take off at their maximum capacity, extending the reach & duration of flights for other aircraft in the Arctic.
I think the next nearest airport you could do that from is Iqaluit.
Our Arctic is becoming more accessible β and to protect our sovereignty, weβve got to make major investments.
Here in Inuvik, weβre extending the runway and modernizing our infrastructure so that we can operate more
@RCAF_ARC
aircraft in defence of our continent.
This project blows my mind. 23 helicopters, of a type not otherwise in US service, just to fly the President.
Canada only has 27 CH-148s (based on the same civilian design) to conduct all ship board helicopter operations for the entire RCN.
VH-92 Helicopter Has Finally Flown Its First βMarine Oneβ Mission
President Joe Biden today took his first flight aboard the VH-92A Patriot helicopter after years of program delays.
Story:
Did you know Canada's ongoing National Shipbuilding Strategy involves the acquisition over over 100 vessels?
It's an absolutely massive project, and I don't think we acknowledge the scale of it often enough.
I think a lot of the commentary which happened when the government decided (in 2016!) to change the number of fighter aircraft it wanted from 65 to 88 has led to a lot of confusion... enough so that it's worth a thread. 1/x
(Here's a picture of a CF-18 to catch your attention.)
@CDNPolicyHawk
Also, the actual need for NORAD and NATO commitments is 65 fighters as originally planned before the infamous LPC "capability gap". There's no need for additional fighters for amphib capability. Just adjust the order. 65 A-models. 23 B-models.
This thread is *filled* with people asking why this didn't happen sooner.
Folks, the Federal gov't can't* deploy the CAF for a domestic emergencies until a Provincial Government makes a request.
This approval was public just four hours after the request was made.
I have approved a request from Alberta to provide immediate & urgent support from the Federal Government to protect people and homes in Jasper and communities across Alberta.
The images of structures burning are distressing, & our thoughts are with the people of Jasper.
"But how should a middle class person feel who's owned their cottage for 30 years, and suddenly the inclusion rate jumps from 50% to 66% on some of their gains?"
Well, since the inclusion rate was 75% on the *entire* amount when they bought it, they should feel lucky.
"Russian Drone Crashes in NATO Member Latvia, Its President Says"
I don't have any commentary to add to this. I just think, given the CAF contingent in Latvia, it's the kind of thing Canadians should know about - and I haven't seen it in any π¨π¦ media yet.
NATO has 8 Enhanced Forward Presence forces in Europe. All NATO members have committed to increasing these forces to Brigade size...
But Canada's force is one of only two with a plan to actually meet that commitment.
π¨π¦πͺ
#DoingOurPart
#NATO
Canadaβs presence in Latvia continues to grow.
Weβre working closely with our
@NATO
Allies to scale up to a full-size brigade in Latvia, sending a clear signal: we are prepared to defend every inch of Allied territory. π¨π¦π±π»
If Canadian rhetoric about the future importance of the Arctic is right, a military base in or around Inuvik seems inevitable.
For one thing, it's the only viable place for a major port in mainland arctic Canada.
But gawd would it be a shambles today...
For a while now, I've been wanting to figure out approximately what the CAF might look like if Canada actually spent 2% of GDP on defence.
So, I spent some time in spreadsheets today and concluded: We can afford the force structure we have planned, but properly funded & staffed.
This seems like a good opportunity to mention that Canada's acquiring 35(!) icebreakers with Polar Class 5 or better, 32 of which will be newly built, as part of our National Shipbuilding Strategy.
Seven of these are in the water today.
The Arctic region of the United States is critical to the defense of our homeland, the protection of U.S. national sovereignty, and the preservation of our defense treaty commitments. Our Arctic strategy will guide the Department's efforts to ensure that the Arctic remains a
Canada should divest its entire Leopard 2 fleet and send it to Ukraine, they're end of life. Let them serve their purpose.
Replace them with a rationalized fleet of Abrams or K2s.
German defence minister acknowledges countries with older Leopard tanks (read Canada and Ukraine) face "a challenge" with spare parts. No commitment to open a production line.
#cdnpoli
#russiaukrinewar
Perhaps one could argue that America has paid for the defence of NATO's European members with money.
But NATO's members have paid for the defence of America with blood.
Over 3000 non-American casualties from NATO members, when America called them to war under NATO's article 5.
@johnkonrad
@DOTMARAD
The US' internal waterways have perhaps as much as an order of magnitude more economic potential than those of any other nation on Earth...
... but the US does such a poor job using them that people are able to convince themselves they don't exist. π€¦
Not a surprise. Hope she does well.
I also hope the gov't have thoroughly vetted her time in Iraq, and know for a fact we're not about to deal with another CAF scandal involving a new CDS.
A decade behind schedule, with $250m spent, we *might* have a facility this year that can refuel ships for *checks notes* 5 weeks each year, and is located several hundred km from where we really need it.
Good job, Canada.
- 24 hours notice - after 2 years of work.
- Releasing it on eclipse day.
- Doing the press conference at a place which *already* had recent major spending announcements (and isn't an obvious candidate for more).
Not to be a pessimist... but none of this is confidence building.
On April 8, 2024, MND Blair, will release Canadaβs Defence Policy Update.
Technical Briefing: at 9:00 a.m. EDT, via Zoom.
Press Conference: at 11:30 a.m. EDT, 8 Wing Trenton
Lots of opining on my timeline that the RCAF should operate water bombers...
Are there any advantages to that over letting Transport Canada's Air Services Directorate operate them, though?
Or, even, just Federal contracts with Conair, Coulson and Canadair?
Canada should be using the years between now and 2032, when programmed defence spending will hit 2% of GDP, to absorb some short-term recapitalization costs.
One thing we should recapitalize is the tank fleet - around the K2 or Abrams. We could then donate Leo 2s to Ukraine.
What will Ukraine get from the scrapyard in Europe and Canada after the Ramstein meeting:
77x Leopard 1 tanks - over 60 years old. Some say it is so good that it can shoot around corners and fly like a fighter jet - but it is over 60 years old.
12x Panzerhabze 2000 - very good.
Setting aside the factual errors in this post..
The only time Canada had the 4th (or 3rd) largest navy in the world was *immediately* following a world-spanning war where most nations' navies were sunk or seized.
That's not a model we can emulate today.
Big announcement: We have a plan to put out a request which will allow us to get the information we need to make a plan about how we'll decide which submarine we'll plan to acquire.
Oddly enough, this announcement is *more* concrete than I was expecting.
Another successful RIMPAC for Combat Support Ship Asterix. Asterix is coming up to its 7th year in operation and has not had a single day of unplanned downtime. A perfect construction by Davie Shipbuilding and a flawless operation by the Federal Fleet Services team.
@johnkonrad
The situation in the Red Sea has caused a lot of people to shit on the LCS program.
But this issue should remind us of the failure of the Zumwalt class. It was supposed to be the (relatively) cheap land bombardment option.
That generation of USN's brain trust really fucked up.
By the time the first one is delivered, the CSC project will have taken 25 years to deliver the River Class DDHG & the final one is expected 26 years from now.
Since Canada wants a continuous build model, I don't think it's too early to ask:
What should replace the River Class?
This is a good clip from the
@OntarioNDP
.
Real, practical, issues that impact everyone (whether they think about it or not) presented in an approachable way.
A couple weeks ago,
@CDAInstitute
's Expert Series touched on the difficulties the RCN is going to have staffing the expansion of its fleet.
But while that's a serious issue, which gets some attention, the RCAF's upcoming personnel crunch might be even more alarming... π§΅
β[
#China
is] giving us hints as to what they might think about doing. Not this year, but maybe in four or five or ten years. And in order to be prepared for that eventuality,
#Canada
needs to do something about its Navy.β
β
@TimAddison76
β‘οΈ Listen now:
Construction of the River-Class Destroyer is underway.
With 6x the missile capacity of the frigates it replaces, a radar that can track drones to ballistic missiles, and state of the art ASW capabilities - it's destined to be one of the most versatile warships in the world.
Much like NATO members have agreed to spend 2% of their GDP on defence, they've also agreed to increase its 8 EFP forces to Brigade size.
The Canadian led EFP is one of only two with a plan in place to do that.
Weird how no one talks about that...
CAF: Why doesn't anyone know or care about the important things we do?
Also, CAF: We absolutely will not share information with anyone about the important things we do.
@NationalDefence
@BillBlair
@CanadianForces
Good thing
@stevenchase
can let Canadians know the
@RoyalCanNavy
is monitoring Chinese activity in the Arctic, as it should be.
But I don't understand why
@NationalDefence
only ever confirms reports like these instead of proactively informing.
Noah's a real gem for posting this.
My read; Someone involved really likes the KSS-III, and eliminated any requirements that would put it at a disadvantage.
Something else might still win, but that's their model for the requirements.
β οΈ THE CPSP RFI HAS DROPPED, AND THEY PUT IT ON SAP FUCKING ARIBA. JOKES ON THEM I HAVE AN ACCOUNT
So, it's time for the official CPSP RFI breakdown. π§΅
Neat to see.
But I continue to wish Canada would purchase some Sealift capacity for the CAF. That's a chartered Dutch commercial ship they're offloading from.
Canada has no ships that can do this.
Next level Tetris!
#CAF
members received a shipment of vehicles on Friday at the port of Riga. These vehicles will enable CAF members to continue their important work and training in Latvia. Watch the unloading process below:
If it was always going to take two years to deliver the π¨π¦ funded NASAMS to Ukraine, then the government was dumb not to communicate that.
This whole situation does emphasize the benefits of local production capacity & stockpiles, though.
π€¬
We need these ships. I don't know that there's a better option available except to go ahead, now.
But we rejected the option of converting the MV Obelix to provide a second ship for this mission, at a likely cost of ~$800m.
We could use that money for other shit.
Ottawa quietly announces cost of building new supply ships has jumped by almost $1 billion. Public Services and Procurement Canada (PSPC) chose to announce it in a media statement on Friday on the eve of a long weekend - again.
#cdnpoli
#RCN
Ditto, Canada.
The incoming C-330s fill some of the gap. But nothing in production today can really fill the gap left by not buying enough Globemasters when we had the chance.
As large as the A400M is, the C-17A is in a whole different league. A truly marvellous and massive beast. One of the biggest oversights of the last 20 years was not buying more when we had the chance.
It's nice that UK media still had editorial headline standards.
Canada (arguably) is indeed the nation with the greatest needs for nuclear submarines (at least among nations without an SNN program).
Unfortunately, there's no practical way to get them.
At the very least, we should order projected attritional replacements (ie. 19 more aircraft) up-front. This is a good idea anyway, since future aircraft will be different enough to complicate logistics.
And no one should ever think Canada's "actual need" is 65 aircraft, today.
It very much seems like there is soon going to be more space for F-35Bs on Western-aligned ships than there will be F-35Bs to fill them.
I know it's unlikely, but continue to believe Canada would get an outsized benefit from helping fill them.
I was pleasantly surprised to see AEW included in the defence policy update.
But with only $23m budgeted over the next 5-years (and $307m, total, over 20 years), it definitely won't happen soon. And it's hard to see how any existing platform is a plausible option, at all.
I wonder what might be shown by a poll which asked Canadians if they think the CAF should have the tools to monitor foreign military activity in the Arctic, and then asked those same people if they think Canada should invest in nuclear submarines...
Imagine writing this when, under the current rules, someone withdrawing $80k from their RRSP pays a higher tax rate than someone receiving $2.5m in capital gains.
"Oh, no! A tiny fraction of my privilege is being rolled back. Is this what oppression feels like?"
Imagine for a moment that the Federal Government announced a plan to tax monies withdrawn from an RRSP at a rate 33% higher than current rates. How outraged would you be? Do you understand the outrage from business owners now with respect to capital gains?
Does the fact that the CPC used Soviet designed aircraft in their silly video matter in-and-of itself? No. Of course not.
But military illiteracy is a major problem in Ottawa, and those expecting the CPC might be a breath of fresh air should reevaluate their assumptions.
@DogsDogsMoreDog
@Rainmaker1973
Yes.
She's lead climbing, carrying the rope up with her and installing & clipping into her fall protection as she goes.
This has more risk than using a pre-installed top-rope. But she's not climbing with no protection.
Canada currently appears to have at least 7 icebreakers in the Arctic.
It was 8 a few days ago, but it looks like HMCS Harry DeWolf has moved south to the Gulf of St. Lawrence.
A few more ships could be up there... ones whose last AIS ping is south but stale.
Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) π’βπͺππ΄ββ οΈ
@RiceKun
U.S. Customs and Border Protection's budget is $25b. If it were a military, it would be the 15th best funded military in the world. It's budget is more than Israel spends on its entire military, including the aid it gets from the US.
I, personally, am of the view that Canada should be acquiring even more fighter aircraft.
Both of these requirements were established during far more stable geostrategic times. And both are absolute minimums.
The snowbirds, I feel, we can do without for a time. I like them, I think they have value. But we've basically locked in some years without them at this point. Might as well start now.
Scrapping the Kingston Class without a replacement is a real, important, capability gap.
"Destroyers" π
Will be interesting to see if the redesignation is related to increased capability, or if they chose to change the designation because the cost comparison isn't (quite) as bad to other countries' destroyers as it is to their frigates.
π New: Canadaβs next fleet of warships will be known as the River-class Destroyers.
This fleet of highly capable warships will deliver decisive combat power for Canada.
Construction work begins today β supporting over 10,000 good jobs.
@LowjackTakes
@waitmanb
@JotunIF
You scramble again. Or, if you think that location isn't tenable, you move them somewhere else where they're less threatened.
Imagine the infantryman with the outlook you're taking. "Might as well let them shoot me now because, if I get behind cover now, they'll shoot again".
I think it's a foregone conclusion that future submarines for the RCN will be foreign built.
I'm far from convinced we'll go with an unmodified "off-the-shelf" design, or see delivery by 2035, though.
You know what Canadian politics needs more of?
Critics who aren't haters.
I don't mean "critic" in the "shadow minister" sense. I mean, like, you and me.
We can be critical of a politician without hating them. Maybe we can even say nice things when they do something good.
Does the fact that this video, released by the RuAF, zooms in on the CF-18 with its hook down feel like shade to anyone else?
Help me out RCAF twitter, is there a reason a CF-18 should have its hook down during an intercept?
I always like seeing the FOLs getting some use.
The Inuvik FOL in particularly interesting as it's undergoing a $230m project to extend the runway (and complete other improvements) which is scheduled to complete in 2027.
A CF-18 Hornet detachment from the π¨π¦
#NORAD
Region is currently training at Forward Operating Location
#Inuvik
. Training at FOLs is essential to maintain our skills and be ready to defend the approaches to North America against potential threats.
@NORADCommand
@RCAF_ARC
@acoyne
Yesterday you were mocking the purchase of tanker aircraft, and contributing to the misapprehension that it was a purchase of personal aircraft for the PM.
That type of thing is a significant contributor to our political challenges, spending money on the CAF.
@BillBlair
@RCAF_ARC
@stbstvdan
This is an underrated initiative.
The runway extension means that the incoming CC-330 tankers can take off at their maximum capacity, extending the reach & duration of flights for other aircraft in the Arctic.
I think the next nearest airport you could do that from is Iqaluit.
If anyone believes this, I have a working tank to sell you.
But, presumably, if they're doing this level of damage control they also will pretty much never use that logo for anything.
I guess we can celebrate that quick decision as a win?
The Canadian Army has not changed its official logo. We remain proud of our official emblem.
The icon launched today is a supplementary design only that will be used in the bottom left corner of certain communications products and in animations for videos.
@ThomasWatsonCD
It's especially weird since the most reasonable way to do it is to transfer nothing, and let Albertans receive a pro-rated CPP benefit in retirement for what they've contributed up until now, and a APP benefit for what they contribute from now until they retire.
Canada really should be finding a way to become an integrated part of UKCSG deployments.
Canada needs to demonstrate our value to our allies, and the UK has programmed a shortage of both escort ships and aircraft into its force structure plans.
New UK Government confirm plans to deploy carrier to Pacific - The new Labour Government has confirmed that the Royal Navyβs Carrier Strike Group, led by HMS Prince of Wales, will be deployed to the Indo-Pacific region in 2025.
Reducing the number of systems a military has is valuable.
One of the risks for the CAF is that we do the opposite by acquiring one system under UORs for the force in Latvia, another for the rest of the army, and never reconcile those differences.
@Aviation_Intel
There's a part of me which loves chaos, who really hopes this is the only kill the F-22 ever gets.
It's possible, with it on its way out of service.
$70b in R&D and procurement costs... to pop one balloon.
I get that the RCN wants to pump up the River-Class, but why choose speed and endurance, which are (perhaps the only) two things that are a downgrade from the Halifax class?
27kn top speed and 7000nmi is not particularly fast or long range. Halifax was 30kn and 9500nmi.
The River-Class.
Designated as destroyers, the River-class will be fast, long-enduranceβ―warshipsβ―for conducting operations, escorting larger vessels and defending against threats.
I missed this thread when it was posted in June and, judging from the likes, lots of others did too.
But it's a truly excellent walk through of some considerations around tank size for the CAF.
If you follow me because you like my defence posts, you'll enjoy reading this.
Alright
#canmiltwitter
, Iβve stated a few times my belief that Leo2 and other modern 65-70t MBTs are not the right fit for our Heavy Cav force. While strategic mobility is a small part of it, it is far from the only reason. A long thread. 1/
Canada's relationship with Cuba is complicated, but our interests are well served both by the deterrence and relationship value of this visit.
The angle here should be that the RCN is doing a good job of balancing incongruous priorities to forward our interests.
I'll know we're in the funniest timeline if Canada gets nuclear submarines via a partnership with France, and AUKUS fall apart so Australia never gets any.
@nicholadrummond
@navalgroup
This is a pretty reasonable list for a general purpose frigate (though I'd argue you're wasting your money on a good radar if you only have 8 VLS cells).
But there are lots of ships with specialized missions, this makes no sense for.
It strikes me that there may be a connection between someone mistaking Soviet-made fighter aircraft for Western ones, and someone believing Nazis were socialists...
Apart from stupidity, I'm not sure what the connection is. But I think it probably exists...
Canada's not the only country experiencing runaway costs in shipbuilding.
Though it's worth noting that America's much delayed heavy icebreaker program, which started years after Canada's, is still expected to deliver a year earlier than ours.
@David_Moscrop
Their example couple says their plan was to rent it until they retired & made it their permanent home?
Unless there's additional information below the paywall, that plan means they're completely unaffected by the changes.
If this isn't BS, it's effectively a promise for another defence policy update.
When an update is announced, it puts us in limbo until it's complete.
Our last update took 27 months from announcement to completion, and was delivered 3 months ago.
π§
I don't get why anyone's shocked America hasn't done better in shooting at the Olympics.
Nothing about "gun culture which causes more school shootings than any other" makes me think of the kind of disciplined shooters that win Olympic medals. π€·ββοΈ
Considering this replacement program doesn't really exist yet, Vard really is putting a ton of energy into promoting its Vigilance program.
I don't mind. But I've never see anything like it in the Canadian defence space.
Discover how VARD Marine's VIGILANCE program is set to revolutionize Canadian naval defence, powered by key partnerships with Canadian industry leaders like DEW Engineering. π¨π¦
#TeamVigilance
π·:
It's a democratically elected parliament acting within long established democratic norms.
You don't have to like the outcome. But it's unambiguously democratic.
How is this democracy ?
The Liberal / BLOC have yet again thwarted the will of the people.
We no longer have a representative Government!
Itβs now all about Trudeau retaining power at any cost !
Disgusting!!
If America was serious about wanting its allies to have their own military industries, it would order from them.
With few exceptions, America's actions towards allied military industry has vacillated between begrudging acceptance and all-out commercial warfare to destroy them.
Nothing so complicated, or easy. Remilitarize & reindustrialize Europe until every European NATO member can field a credible (based on size), battle ready military force.
Redressing inequities in defense burden sharing between the US & Europe will mollify American skepticism.
Not surprising, but still perhaps significant, that messaging around this trip is emphasizing the industrial part of collaborating with South Korea on defence.
Not sure we'll get a major announcement on this trip, but one wonders if the groundwork for something is being laid.
Glad to be in the Republic of Korea for my first visit here as Canadaβs Minister of National Defence.
The Republic of Korea is one of our closest partners in the Indo-Pacific β and weβre committed to strengthening the relationship between our defence industrial bases.
Cruise missiles with a naval strike capability are one of the few justifications I ever saw for Canada to get the F-35.
We should ride the coattails of this program.
USAF F-35s Are Officially Getting Joint Strike Cruise Missiles That Fit In Their Bays
Joint Strike Missiles will give Air Force F-35A new options for conducting stand-off strikes, especially in the maritime domain.
Story:
@MidOfficer
The quotes from Leslie in this article do not impress.
It would help military discourse in this country immensely if retired generals who choose to leverage their experience into a second career in pontification didn't mortgage their credibility for attention.
@stphnmaher
It seems like the incident which caused this was the back to work order during the rail lockout.
Like, they want people who view politics through a workers lens to understand that. But don't want to say it because that decision was popular with almost everyone else.
The reality is that, since 2017, Trudeau's 88 aircraft requirement has been just as valid as Harper's 65 aircraft requirement was before that.
It might be *more* valid, depending on how you view the logic which was used to arrive at those numbers.
For a while now, I've been wanting to figure out approximately what the CAF might look like if Canada actually spent 2% of GDP on defence.
So, I spent some time in spreadsheets today and concluded: We can afford the force structure we have planned, but properly funded & staffed.
This article isn't nearly as bad as I expected when I read the title.
But it's weird to make the point that Canada can't afford new subs on a defence budget of < 1.5% without mentioning Canada's very public plans to increase its defence budget.
@MidOfficer
It was a real breakthrough for me when I realized most people don't intuitively grasp that Canada's army doesn't exist to defend Canada. That's a job for the Air Force and Navy.
The army exists to fight in other countries.
People's eyes light up when you explain it.
@CJOC_COIC
@JRCCTrentCCCOS
@JapaninCanada
@RoyalCanNavy
@CanadianForces
Good, prompt, social media post. Good work to the PAO team.
If you're not already doing it, this is a story you should expand on with more than this. Do a full press release. Push it to the media. Do your own video.
Show Canadians these ships doing valuable work.
@David_Moscrop
"But they've owned it for 30 years!"
So, the inclusion rate was 75% on the entire amount when they bought it? Sounds like they lucked out.
However, as far as I can tell, neither gov't ever made provision for this.
Maybe the plan has been to order as needed and just be unable to hit our targets while we wait for delivery. Maybe that was a fine idea in 2007 or 2017. But the world looks a lot more dangerous today.
Am I being unreasonably condescending in thinking that most people who responded "Have an elected head of state" don't realize how massively that would impact our political structure?
"Canada should..."
Have an elected head of state: 46%
Remain a monarchy: 23%
Don't care either way: 21%
Research Co. / March 10, 2024 / n=1002 / Online