Twitter is where actual millionaires go to get yelled at by some twenty-something dumbass with a five figure portfolio and a screen name like True Investing Capital
@DividendDaddy1
You're absolutely right but also I only recently got enough status to get into lounges so that's basically me. I'm the unwashed masses!
My favourite Seeking Alpha comment guy ever is Buyandhold2012.
He took a $4k investment (plus reg. contributions) and turned it into an $87M fortune.
His rules:
- Buy dividend growth stocks
- Never sell
- Store physical stock certificates in a safety deposit box
❤️ that guy
An updated version of Jim's portfolio, a plumber who retired when he was 50 in 2021.
He tells me his portfolio income has increased from $120k to $136k/year and and after "going a little nuts" in his first year of retirement, he spends about 50% of his dividends each year.
Garth Turner launched his blog warning Canadians of an upcoming housing collapse 15 years ago.
In that time, the average Canadian house has increased from $289k to $716k.
And yet, despite this abysmal record, thousands still read his blog. Religiously.
Utterly fascinating.
Once met a homeowner who spent $50k on a geothermal heating system to save $100 per month in heating costs.
When I mocked his return on investment he immediately defaulted to the environmental argument.
This is ESG investing in a nutshell.
Today I learned there isn't a single analyst covering A&W.
Last conference call the only questions came from a shareholder.
Canada's second-largest burger chain. $500M+ market cap. And not a single analyst regularly covers the stock.
Amazing.
Canadian inflation:
June 2022 - 8.1%
May 2023 - 3.4%
Despite this, my feed is absolutely crammed with permabears saying rates are going to keep marching higher.
Macro guys, tell me what I'm missing here?
Met a subscriber a couple weeks ago with a $3M+ portfolio and $120k in dividend income. Asked him to do an interview and he's not sure.
If you'd like me to interview him, like this tweet so I can use it to pressure him into accepting.
I had a WFH job years before anyone else.
Was in the top 10% of employees based on KPIs. Did everything they asked, went above and beyond regularly.
Despite all that, was passed up for multiple promotions for people who worked in the HQ.
Visibility matters, guys.
I used to own physical property, and now I own REITs. Hands down, REITs are better:
- Instant liquidity
- Zero work
- Good yields
- Diversification
- Great deals in public markets
Still happy I exited the rental game.
Don’t understand all the anti-Canada rhetoric on here.
Do we have problems? Of course
Is real estate too expensive? Sure
Is government inefficient? Duh
But overall Canada is a great place to live, and I definitely won the genetic lottery by being born here.
Mexican airport stocks are buy and hold forever names for me.
- Monopoly businesses
- Great ROICs and ROEs
- Terrific margins
- Multiple growth avenues
- Very reasonable multiples (13-15x earnings)
- Great dividends
Nice entry point today too, IMO. $PAC $OMAB
At its peak in 2021, $NKE traded at 45x+ earnings.
It's a quality company, good mgmt, high ROIC, solid growth, etc.
A few years later that investment ended in tears. The issue was simply paying too much.
Currently, $COST trades at 50+ earnings... you can fill in the rest.
I keep hearing there's no such thing as safe high yield stocks (high yield defined as anything with a 5%+ yield).
I couldn't disagree more. There are a bunch in Canada, and even more in other markets.
Thought I'd put a few together in a 🧵to give y'all some ideas.
Here goes:
Private companies I’d buy in a heartbeat if they ever became public:
1. Five Guys
2. Lego
3. IKEA
4. In-N-Out
5. Cadillac Fairview
What’s on your list?
These are the cheapest places to live in Canada:
10. Regina
9. St. John
8. Lethbridge
7. Red Deer
6. Thunder Bay
5. Cape Breton
4. Trois-Rivieres
3. Medicine Hat
2. Quebec City
1. Edmonton
Avg house price < $350k and ample job opps in each market.
Any I should add?
If you think about how the dumbest rich guy you know accumulated his wealth, chances are it's either via
1. Real estate
2. Boring blue chip stocks acquired over decades
Yet so many of us try to reinvent the wheel and make it needlessly difficult.
I think about this a lot.
I've owned both physical real estate and REITs, and hands down REITs are better:
- Zero work
- Comparable yields
- Can find great deals in public markets
- Instant diversification
- Liquidity
Happy I got out of the rental game.
A few years ago I went from owning physical real estate to owning REITs, which are massively better:
- Zero work
- Solid yields
- Diversification
- Instant (and basically free) liquidity
- Periodic great deals in public markets
Should've exited the rental game years sooner.
Stocks that pay out 3-5% dividends combined with 6-10% growth are my kryptonite. What a sneaky good way to compound over long periods of time.
"But Nelson, these stocks don't exist!"
Here are five right now: $RY.to, $IAG.to, $QBR.b, $CPX.to, $CNQ.to
The Buffett rule about when to buy a stock is so powerfully simple:
- Under 15x fwd earnings
- 90% confidence it will earn more 5 years from now
- 50% confidence it will compound by 7% per year
That's it. Buffett limits himself to the S&P 500 but you don't have to.
Why would anyone possibly be bullish on marijuana stocks?
Commodity product, virtually zero barriers to entry, subject to supply gluts, users can easily grow it on their own…
I wouldn’t invest my worst enemy’s money in pot.
I've done dozens of merger and odd lot arbitrages over the years.
I always had three rules:
1. Avoid huge spreads. The market is telling you something.
2. Avoid big publicity cases.
3. Don't play with something you wouldn't own if it goes south.
$SAVE broke all three rules.
Returns of the six largest Canadian banks over the last 25 years (incl. reinvested divs):
$BMO - 9.62%
$BNS - 9.94%
$CM - 9.41%
$NA - 13.35%
$RY - 12.08%
$TD - 11.91%
Imagine not owning these because you're worried about the economy in the next 6-12 months.
Your great, great grandfather: I'll uproot my family, cross an ocean on a rickety wooden boat and go to an unknown land to seize some vague opportunity to get ahead.
You, 120 years later: I couldn't possibly move from Toronto to Winnipeg to be able to afford a house.
Another wildly unpopular opinion I have is you'd be nuts to own $BRK after Buffett is gone.
Nothing against Greg, Todd, and Ted, but I'm highly skeptical capital allocation by committee will perform anywhere close to the greatest of all time.
Canadian bank stock moves from the October lows:
$CM.to: +34.9%
$BMO.to: +26.9%
$RY.to: +23.6%
$NA.to: +18.41%
$BNS.to: +14.8%
$TD.to: +12.4%
(Excluding dividends)
This is why I can't bring myself to sell the laggards. They often do quite well in rebound scenarios.
My early retirement withdrawal strategy is really simple.
My portfolio has a ~4% dividend yield. I withdraw 3% for living expenses and reinvest the other 1%.
This, combined with dividend raises, ensures I can keep up with inflation.
Simple. Easy. And it works.
It’s finally here. How Jim retired at 50 with $3M+ and $120k in dividend income.
Free for all to read.
I really enjoyed doing this interview. I hope y’all like reading it too.
Periodic reminder: You and your spouse can earn a total of $142k annually ($71k each) from dividends and pay zero taxes.
Assuming you have no other income. In most provinces too.
The Canadian tax code loves early retirees.
From the always excellent Tax Tips dot ca.
If y'all are upset about missing Dollarama, let me introduce you to Pesorama $PESO.V
- Owns 20 dollar stores in Mexico City
- Huge growth potential
- Profitable its latest q
- 41% gross margin
- ~15% insider ownership
- ~20M market cap
I'm still really bullish on Alberta over the next 5-10 years:
- RE is cheap (especially outside Calgary)
- Growing quicker than any other province
- Low taxes/no PST or HST
- Diversified away from energy
- Many well-paid jobs
- Weather is better than you think
The TSX Composite was down ~3% last week and more than 6% in the two months, mostly on fears higher interest rates are here to stay.
I think it represents an excellent time to start buying Canadian stocks, so this week on here I'm going to share 20+ stock ideas.
Stay tuned!
After many requests, it's finally here.
A year (plus) in the making.
My FIRE journey, 5,000+ words on how I retired by 40 -- without a college degree or anything better than a middle class job.
One of my best pieces yet. Bookmark it now, yo.
Even minor recessions are devastating events.
- 1000s will go bankrupt
- Millions will lose jobs
- Millions more will stress about their finances
It's a proven fact. Recessions kill people.
And yet, there are many people on this app openly cheering for a recession.
Gross
I'm amazed at how often even boring, low-beta, blue chip stocks move by 20-40% in the course of a year.
It's one of those things that once you see it and realize how common it is, it makes it much easier to sit and wait for a stock to hit your price.
My top-five list of companies I'd buy in a heartbeat if they ever became publicly traded is:
1. Lego
2. Five Guys
3. Bloomberg
4. IKEA
5. Jim Pattison Group
What are your favs?
Canada's banks are so cheap today that I can't justify adding to $BNS or $CM when I can buy $RY, $TD, or $NA.to at under 10x 2025 earnings.
A great opportunity to buy the best at a nice price.
However, I'm still not ready to give up on the laggards. Own both. Just not adding.
Once met someone with a $1M+ TFSA.
I verified it. He showed me on the Questrade app.
How'd he do it? Went 100% into $WEED in '15 & rode the wave. Managed to get out near the top.
He admits he got lucky & he's trying not to screw up his windfall. Invests very boring now.
Alberta established their Heritage Fund, oil money put aside for long-term investment, back in 1976. It was worth $21B in 2023.
Norway did the same thing in 1990. Their fund is worth CAD$2T+.
Alberta spent its profits. Norway reinvested them.
What a massive L for Alberta.
Amazed at the number of people who legitimately think running a successful business is the only way to get wealthy.
There are 1000s of millionaires who did nothing more than get a job, live below their means, and invest wisely.
All without the headache of owning a business.
TC Energy $TRP.to:
- Trades at 10x 2023 earnings
- ~5-7% EBITDA growth annually going forward
- Coastal Gas Link 98% complete
- 85% debt fixed rate, 19 year avg. maturity
- 7.9% well covered dividend
Sometimes you don't have to dig very deep to find great opportunities.
Recently spent some time revisiting all the sell decisions I made in my portfolio over the last decade.
Almost universally I would've been better off punting losers quicker and holding winners longer.
I think about this a lot.
Average annual returns over the last 25 years for Canada's top banks, including reinvested divs:
$NA.to: 14.29%
$RY: 13.04%
$BMO: 10.32%
$CM: 10.26%
$BNS: 9.92%
$TD: 9.18%
An equal basket of all 6 would've returned ~11% per year.
Forever stocks in my portfolio.
Periodic reminder.
For 2023, both you and your spouse can earn $68,000 per year in dividends and pay zero taxes (assuming no other income). In most provinces, anyway.
From the always excellent .
The problem with deep dives is I've yet to find an investor who researches a stock for hours and hours who ends up passing on the name.
This also includes a deep dive writer I know really well -- me.
The longer I'm on this app the more I realize a simple truth:
Most people on Fintwit don't like buying stocks when they're down. They'll invent all sorts of reasons to justify it, too.
Potentially unpopular opinion:
You should be able to retire quite comfortably on $1M in investments, a paid off house, and CPP/OAS.
Most who can't do it have a spending problem.
$BCE is back to within 3% of its 52-week low, if that tickles anyone's fancy.
7.5% yield that should grow at or slightly above inflation over time, and 12x forward free cash flow.
I used to spend a lot of time analyzing insider buys/sells for every stock I was looking to invest in.
Now I follow a simple rule:
Insider buys: bullish
Insider sells: meaningless
I used to look for home runs when investing.
Now I realize it's consistent walks, singles, and doubles that represent the easiest path to wealth for an average person.
Steady investments in boring companies over decades = massive success
Periodic reminder: you can earn $65k (and your spouse can earn another $65k) in dividends each year and not pay a nickel of taxes.
In most provinces. And assuming you have no other income.
Calculations from the always excellent .
Canadian bank stock returns, Jan 1 - Dec 29th, 2021 (including dividends):
$RY.to - 31.37%
$EQB.to - 32.34%
$BNS.to - 38.97%
$TD.to - 39.15%
$NA.to - 40.42%
$CM.to - 41.90%
$BMO.to - 46.82%
No matter which ones you own (I own all 7 btw), a very good year for bank investors.
A few weeks ago I shared a thread that highlighted 11 Canadian stocks that were selling at or very close to 10-year low valuations.
These were solid blue-chip names that are still good businesses.
There are so many cheap stocks in Canada here are 11 more:
Boring specialty grocery Northwest Company $NWC.to quietly put up a 1,254.35% return over the last 20 years if you reinvested your dividends. CAGR of almost 14% per year.
Not expensive today either, stock trades at just 13x forward earnings.
Boring really is beautiful.
Blackrock's retirement whitepaper found most retirees still had 80% of their pre-retirement savings after two decades of retirement.
Almost 40% had *more* than they retired with.
One of the many fascinating findings of this great report.
CIBC is the reason I own all six large Canadian banks in a nutshell.
12-18 months ago nobody liked it, it was falling, was labelled a terrible bank, etc.
Now it's up 5% today alone, close to an all-time high, and everyone loves it again.
Buy em' all and chill. Simple. $CM.to
A ridiculously simple investment strategy I like more and more over time:
1. Identify excellent companies
2. Which have a history of growing dividends over time
3. Wait until they hit 52-week lows
4. Pounce
I followed McDonalds for months in 2003. Watched it fall from $20 to $14.
I was going to get in at $12. It hit $13(ish) and immediately rocketed higher.
My short-term greed caused me to miss out on a great investment.
20 years later and I still think about this a lot.
CDI stock idea 5: TD Bank
- Close to a 52-week low
- Flush with cash after the failed First Horizon bid
- Big share buyback (30M shares) approved
- 9.8x trailing P/E, 9.4x forward P/E, lower than average
- 4.9% (!!) yield, highest since 2020
This is a lay-up, IMO $TD
This time last year I was tweeting about buying boring, old-school companies like $FTS.to, $ENB.to, and $NWC.to, whose short-term outlooks were dicey because of higher rates.
I got dozens of replies telling me to buy government bonds or GICs instead.
Sure glad I didn't listen
2022 returns, Cdn energy companies. Including divs, through Dec 29th:
$SU.to: +33.91%
$CPG.to: +36.18%
$WCP.to: +41.17%
$IMO.to: +42.57%
$BTE.to: +49.12%
$CNQ.to: +49.32%
$MEG.to: +49.32%
$ARX.to: +55.61%
$CVE.to: +63.35%
$ERF.to: +71.16%
$TOU.to: +83.31%
Great year for energy
Ingles Market, a regional U.S. grocer, is the cheapest grocery stock in North America:
- 6x trailing earnings
- Buying back shares
- EPS up 5x since 2016
- Owns about 80% of its real estate
- Solid balance sheet
- Founding family controlled
$IMKT.A
Discount to fair value, as per Morningstar:
$T.to: 37%
$RCI.b: 35%
$QBR.b: 29%
$NTR.to: 29%
$BCE.to: 28%
$TRP.to: 18%
$TD.to: 16%
$ENB.to: 15%
$BMO.to: 14%
$BNS.to: 13%
Nice to see I'm not the only one who thinks there's lots of value in telecom.
I recently passed 10,000 followers on this app.
It's pretty cool that so many people find what I have to say compelling enough to follow.
I do my best to only put good stuff in your feed, too. Hopefully I'm succeeding.
Thanks, y'all. See you at 20,000.
Canadian REITs and preferred shares look fantastic right now, especially with rates quietly dropping. If I was a Canadian DIY income investor I’d looking to buy more.
Oh wait. I am. And I am. I just wish I had more cash.
Our banks are posting solid domestic results considering the narrative on here about Canada's economy.
$TD.to Canadian earnings were up 13% YoY, $BMO.to Canadian earnings up 5% YoY, and $BNS.to Canadian earnings up 6%.
Not bad for such a crummy local economy.
The longer I'm in this game the more I realize investing really does come down to simple stuff:
- Buy good companies
- For decent prices
- Patiently wait & collect dividends
- Don't sell
The rest is basically just details.
20 years ago I purchased my 1st stock, 100 shares of $TD from a (gasp!) full service broker.
It cost ~$2,700 and paid $56 per year in dividends.
Fast forward a couple decades and I get that much in dividends every 8 hours.
I really can't believe it only took 20 years.