I simulated 5 different tables for the 22/23
#Bundesliga
using a Monte Carlo simulation, and a model taking into account xG, xGA, GD-xGD, and the opponent's xG, xGA, GD-xGD.
Here's the first table.
See the thread for more info!
👇🧵
Incredible signing for
@Holstein_Kiel
! This is a steal. Shuto Machino is one of the hottest prospects in Japan
Let's have some data shall we? 😉
First up is a radar. He's a really good striker, and particularly strong at facilitating attacking moves
#KielAhoi
#Bundesliga2
Who might be some of the best players in the league this season, within a sample formation & role?
Does anyone here surprise you? Any notable omissions?
#Bundesliga
.
@borussia_en
's young
@USMNT
fullback,
@jjscally_10
, has been 🔑 this season:
Scally has the most touches of all
#DieFohlen
players (316), the most touches in the attacking third (78), & the most progressive carries (26) 💪
Here's some of his stats compared to
#Bundesliga
DFs
Is Michael Zetterer the best GK in the Bundesliga this season at long goal kicks? 🤔
If we look at their team's ability to *retain* possession after a long goal kick, regardless of what team touches the ball first, Zetterer has the best rate
37% of his long goal kicks retained
Hello
@scfreiburg
Your entire club is a class act. Streich is a wonderful human being on top of being a top manager.
Thank you for existing and being such a well-run community club, an example to people everywhere 👍👏
Winter Break performance check in 🧵
6 graphs diving into team performance this season, both attack & defense
1) Territory covered/conceded
This graph shows ability to cover ground with their possessions & how much territory they tend to concede to opponents
#Bundesliga
Super smart stuff by Alonso...
Leipzig want to invite one of the front 2 to press GK Blaswich when building up so deep
Instead, Leverkusen completely stop moving when he gets the ball and instead make it exceptionally difficult for Blaswich to play any pass
👏👏
Bayern Players' average territory of all actions tonight
Almost a 2-4-4 (most these events are in-possession) with Musiala pushing up & left, Kane shifting right
#SVWFCB
#FCBayern
#Bundesliga
I simulated 5 different tables for the 22/23
#Bundesliga
using a Monte Carlo simulation, and a model taking into account xG, xGA, GD-xGD, and the opponent's xG, xGA, GD-xGD.
Here's the first table.
See the thread for more info!
👇🧵
Rafał Gikiewicz recorded the highest proportion of saves made with his feet in the
#Bundesliga
this season
16.5% of his saves were with his feet
Here's his "save style" radar. The bars represent his percentile rank, and the number is his actual number for that metric
#FCA
Which 2. Bundesliga players might create the most danger, most consistently, with their passes when adjusted for team possession?
🥇 Florent Muslija
#scp07
🥈 Branimir Hrogota
#kleeblatt
🥉 Lars Stindl
#KSCmeineHeimat
#Bundesliga2
Most teams play with 10 men in the outfield
Christian Titz played with 11 in their 1-2 loss to Düsseldorf this weekend
GK Dominik Riemann split his CBs often to add an extra man in buildup!
Here's where he made his short passes from. Amazing
#Bundesliga
#FCMF95
#EINMALIMMER
I’ve not posted a lot recently. My apologies.
But I’ve been thinking, and I want to open this account up to post analyses, tactical or data, on 🇩🇪 ⚽️ from anyone. I do many other things myself, and want to make this a collaborative fan-run analysis account
🧵 for more info 👇
The Expected Goal Difference flow for
@HerthaBSC_EN
tells us something interesting.
Of the last 50
#Bundesliga
matches, they've only won 3 they were expected to draw or lose... But they've lost 8 they were expected to draw or win.
#GemeinsamHertha
#HaHoHe
This season, I'll be posting post-match reports of all the
#Bundsliga
matches, possibly for 2. Bundesliga as well.
This thread is MD 1 🧵
(will be updated with all games when data is available)
Starting with
#SGEFCB
1-6
#SGE
#FCBayern
Good luck in the Premier League, Moussa Niakhaté! 👍
This chart shows his playing profile (more defensive-minded that carrying/ball playing) & relative ranking to other Center Backs who played at least half the 21/21
#Bundesliga
.
#NFFC
#PL
Who has Granit Xhaka passed to most frequently this season & where are they usually when he passes?
Here's Xhaka's passing solar 🪐
"Planets" size & color represent all players with at least 50 Xhaka passes
"Moons" are the standard deviation of their location
#Bayer04
📊 Which
#Bundesliga
teams have the most equal/unequal spread of ball touches?
Calculating a Gini Coefficient for each teams' total touches this season shows:
✖️
@VfB_int
have the most touch inequality ⚪️🔴
✅
@borussia_en
have the most touch equality ⚫️⚪️🟢
I feel like I need to translate my post-match reports into German for you guys 😅 I feel bad that so many of you that QT it, are speaking German hahaha
Ich brauche mein Deutsch verbessern 😝
Which players rank the best in several important attacking metrics so far this season, after Spieltag 7?
🥇 Leroy Sané
🥈 Sadio Mané
🥉 Jamal Musiala
Any players you either see or not see that surprise you? 🤔
#Bundesliga
#FCBayern
[📊:
@egudi_analysis
]
Re-watching Schalke 1-6 Union...
Dominick Drexler has the assist of the season on Janik Haberer's goal right?
Wish we could post a highlight but just imagine the best assist you've ever seen. But to the wrong team.
Here's my artist rendition 🎨
#S04FCU
#fcunion
@fcunion_en
Some interesting numbers here..
Throw-ins into the box, 2. Bundesliga
Holstein Kiel, Hertha, & Hansa Rostock attempt the most throws into the box, all close & above 80
Holstein Kiel's throws into the box have directly assisted 7 shots!
Let's dig more...
#KielAhoi
I've been tweeting a bit about throw-ins into the box recently...
Here's another way to look at it. The percentage of all throw-ins in the final third that a club throws into the box
Holstein Kiel & Hertha are the clubs with over 50% aimed at the box
#KielAhoi
#HaHoHe
HSV & Magdeburg both push their GK up in buildup, having them play almost as a center back
It's apparent in their pass maps, with the keepers' position usually outside their box
Here are both teams' passing networks in all games this season
#HSV
#EINMALIMMER
Xabi I love you but I hope you don't go unbeaten in all competitions because I need a 2.Bundesliga/3.Liga side to win the Pokal
Thanks.
Sincerely,
Every neutral
Thanks for sticking with us despite the fairly sporadic post-match reports and other content lol
I solved an issue I had when Twitter API went to V2, so I can auto-tweet from my code now
Means it’s much much easier to post post-match visuals 🤌
Stay tuned for some break posts
Recently posted about the 1. Bundesliga's center back profiles...
Here's the profile of 2. Bundesliga center backs who played at least half the season.
#scp07
's Uwe Hünemeier has the highest total score, followed by
#fcsp
's Jakov Medić &
#HSV
's Mario Vušković.
#Bundesliga
What players may have started some of their team's "best" possessions, in terms of expected goals (xG)?
xG Launched is the sum of xG resulting from the possessions that a player started
Here is the ranking for
#Bundesliga
players this season, sorted by Open Play xG Launched
Taiwo Awoniyi 🇳🇬 Wow. If true...
Congrats on staying in the Premier League, Nottingham 😉
Clinical finisher. 0.54 non-penalty goals per 90 for
#fcunion
, certainly hit another level this season.
#Bundesliga
#Eisern
#NFFC
❗️X News
#Awoniyi
: He will join Nottingham! The deal will be finalized in the next hours. Verbal agreement since days. Union Berlin will receive €20.5m transfer fee!
@SkySportDE
🇳🇬
The
@Bundesliga_EN
detailed 10 key U21 players to watch this season in the 2.
#Bundesliga
...
... So let's have a look at their stats last season, shall we??
📊🧵
.
@fcunion_en
have signed
@scfreiburg
defender Dominique Heintz
Heintz was solid for 3.5 years at Freiburg, but only featured once this season―29 mins
Heintz is a reliable CB, but shines more going forward than staying back. His stats & progress from 20/21:
#Bundesliga
#fcunion
I don't think we'll ever see something as impressive as this Leverkusen season again. This is almost unfathomable
Coupled with this win sending ***Heidenheim*** into Europe?
Remarkable.
Herzlichen Glückwunsch
Bayern have a better goal difference (+24) after 11 games than they have points (22).
Should probably work on turning some of those draws into wins, instead of turning wins into massive wins 🫥
My recent Hertha xG/xGA graph got me thinking...
Here's how GKs Marcel Lotka & Alexander Schwolow compare to each other this season, both among just
#Bundesliga
keepers (1st image) & also all top 5 leagues (2nd image).
Lotka is moving to
#BVB
after this season.
#HaHoHe
So, here's the 2nd table. Leverkusen again win!
Leverkusen is quite good in these simulations because I think Wortz/Hlozek/Schick will be very dangerous. I'm expecting them to be of the best teams on average for xG
How have the
#Bundesliga
GKs fared so far this season?
Yann Sommer has kept out the most goals/90 vs expected, and is good at stopping crosses as well as performing a fair amount of defensive actions outside his box!
Where's your club's GK? 🧐
#dieFohlen
[📊:
@STFootball10
]
Now that Sadio Mané to
#FCBayern
is official, here are two radar charts showing some key attacker metrics & how he ranked vs Premier League strikers (1st image) & wingers (2nd image).
What. A. Signing.
Welcome to Bayern. Welcome to the
#Bundesliga
#ServusMan
é
#MiaSanMia
Which non-strikers have the most dangerous shots & shot assists, on average?
Leverkusen's Jeremie Frimpong has the highest xG per shot, while Bayern's Benjamin Pavard has the highest xA per pass leading to a shot
#Bundesliga
Dortmund and Werder Bremen's xT originating from 30 zones
Top 3 players by xT this match:
🥇 Raphaël Gurreiro (0.334)
🥈 Marco Friedl (0.257)
🥉 Leonardo Bittencourt (0.196)
#BVBSVW
#BVB
#werder
The 22/23 season starts TOMORROW!! 😍🥳
2. Bundesliga action kicks off with newly-promoted
@Rote_Teufel
hosting
@Hannover96
Here's a quick look at the profiles of forwards, midfielders, and CBs from last season
Get pumped, it's always a bumping league 💪
#Bundesliga
#FCKH96
Shuto Machino has attempted 4.6 throw ins into the box per 90' this season 👀💪
His 37 rank 2nd in the league behind Fabian Reese, who has 57, but 3.8 per 90'
4 of these have lead directly to a Holstein Kiel shot
#KielAhoi
#Bundesliga2
Here's my predictions for the upcoming 2. Bundesliga season 🔮
Based on 5 simulations using xG, xGA, & GD-xGD, I'm prediction
#HSV
&
#sv98
to win promotion the the
#Bundesliga
.
#f95
in the promotion playoff
Sandhausen & Braunschweig, predicted relegation.
What do you think? 🤔
What leagues might be the most similar to the 2. Bundesliga? 🤔
The MLS comes out as the most similar, followed by La Liga SmartBank & J1
Any league surprise you? Is there another league you'd say is a similar level but not shown?
Some basic style info on how Xabi Alonso's Real Sociedad B side played in the 21/22 Segunda División
First off, this team was relegated. Having such low goals, npxG, etc makes sense, and doesn't mean Leverkusen will be 30th percentile goals for ex.
Context is needed for this 🧵
Post-Match 📊
#SGEFCB
Bayern opened the 22/23
#Bundesliga
in style, beating Eintracht Frankfurt 1-6
#SGE
found it difficult to deal with
#FCBayern
's sliky, frequent attacks. A fluid 4-4-2/4-2-2-2 really unlocked Bayern's players
Here's a dashboard with some selected metrics 👇
Taiwo Awoniyi 🇳🇬 Wow. If true...
Congrats on staying in the Premier League, Nottingham 😉
Clinical finisher. 0.54 non-penalty goals per 90 for
#fcunion
, certainly hit another level this season.
#Bundesliga
#Eisern
#NFFC
Welcome back to the
#Bundesliga
Jonjoe Kenny! 👋
@HerthaBSC_EN
strengthening their squad with a solid right back with past Bundesliga experience
Here's how some of Kenny's stats compared to other fullbacks in the Premier League this season
#HaHoHe
#GemeinsamHertha
(cont'd)
A deep dive into Xabi Alonso & Leverkusen's efficiency/playstyle changes from last season to this season, according to data
Leverkusen perhaps more efficient & better in possession while playing differently, and similarly good out of possession
#Bayer04
#Bundesliga
Been lots of talk around Xabi Alonso & his Leverkusen. Figured I'd compare this season & last season's Bundesliga data in a few key metrics I think give decent insight into style/performance. As well as how he's developed & changed
Expansion in the thread 🧵
Hope this was fun for you all!
Again, I'll make more simulated tables with more confidence closer to the start of the season. At that time, I'll have researched new players/managers more & teams will have signed more players/replacements 😁
Post-Match Report
Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-3 Bochum
Bochum reverse a 3-0 1st leg loss, winning penalties to secure safety in the
#Bundesliga
next season! Hats off to F95 for a great season; heartbreaking to lose in this manner
#F95BOC
#f95
#meinVfL
#DUUNDDEINVfL
Post-Match Report
Bochum 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf
Fortuna bring a massive advantage with them back to Düsseldorf. This is the largest margin of victory for a 2. Bundesliga side since FC Nürnburg beat Energie Cottbus 0-3 in Cottbus in 2009 😳
#BOCF95
#meinVfL
#DUUNDDEINVfL
#f95
A Tale of One City.
Berlin clubs and rivals
@fcunion_en
&
@HerthaBSC_EN
had drastically different seasons, and especially different emotions in their final matches.
This chart compares their table positions at the end of each week
#fcunion
|
#HaHoHe
|
#Bundesliga
What type of profile did
#Bundesliga
midfielders have this season? 🤔
Players near the center rank equally in all 3.
Players near a corner rank mainly in that aspect.
Players near a line rank in those 2 aspects.
See your team’s players?
Zoom in 🔍 it’s high quality! 👍
FYI for those smack talking the league today because of a single scoreline...
In a certain other league would the home fans have even stayed past halftime? Would they have seen their team's goal?
So much more to 🇩🇪 football than a scoreline
The TV shots near the end showing the Eintracht Frankfurt fans in the Nordwest Kurve bouncing up and down & again after the final whistle, tell the story of German fan culture magic. No one can match this & without it, we’re just like everyone else.
So, that leads us to this... Shuto Machino's best role is as more of a "playmaking striker" rather than that focal-point, Haaland-esque striker.
I believe his goalscoring form is worse than it normally should be, but he is still a really good facilitator of all attacking moves
3rd table is another relegation for Freiburg. Interesting. Another title for Leverkusen as well, but just barely ahead of Bayern. Leipzig miss out on Europe again too
Daniel Batz comes into
#Mainz05
as one of the best shot-stoppers in 3. Liga last season
Freiburg II's Noah Atubolu had almost the exact same prevented goals per 90 and save % as Batz, but ever so slightly higher
Batz saved 0.31 goals per 90' above expected (Atubolu was 0.32)