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Noah Williams

@Bellmanequation

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Miami Herbert Centennial Endowed Chair, Professor of Economics @UnivMiami @MiamiHerbert

Coral Gables, FL
https://t.co/kWUa4xAMJz
Joined May 2009
Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
15 days
🚨New paper: "Stochastic Cycles"🚨 In stochastic environments, strategic complementarities coupled w/inertia can lead to stochastic cyclical fluctuations. I develop & analyze two models that have a unique, stable, steady-state equilibrium, but experience strong cyclical dynamics.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
A Phillips curve for Google searches on "inflation" and "unemployment" over the past two years looks about how you'd expect. We've been on vertical part since October 2021.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
6 years
Found on the roadside: @SpringerStats yellow book, beside empty vodka bottles & cigarette packs
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
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1 year
Tentative reading list for the Economics PhD math camp, which I’ll be teaching for the first time in years. Obviously not all of all of them, but this was whittled down from a much bigger pile.
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
Unlike the 2000s, this housing boom (& slowdown) was almost all driven by high credit score borrowers.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
Economists know all about the economy. It consists of, for all i=1,...,n and j=1,..,m: (i) a non-empty consumption subset of Xᵢ⊆Rˡ completely preordered by ≽; (ii) a non-empty production set Yⱼ⊆Rˡ; and (iii) resources ω∈Rˡ.
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@Bellmanequation
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@Bellmanequation
6 years
Best acknowledgment ever?
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
3 months
Sargent on the legacy of Lucas, occasioned by the recent memorial, is required reading.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
Started reading PhD applications & was reminded of my uncle. In college, he asked a professor for a recommendation letter for grad school, who agreed after a class. This was the letter in full (revealed later by someone at a school he applied to): "I do not know this person."
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
3 years
In Argentina, the price of a 500g box of Frosted Flakes is controlled. At a grocery store recently, buyers found signs apologizing that the cereal was out of stock due to delivery problems. Amazingly, the shelves were full of 510g boxes, the price of which was not controlled.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
5 years
I like to represent one dimension of variation on a line, not a 2D array.
@mooshakins
LaurieAnn 🧚🏻‍♂️💫
@mooshakins
5 years
I like E3 How do you like your coffee?
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@Bellmanequation
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1 year
Laying out the economic vision in a language economists can understand
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
5 months
“Grad school really wasn’t that bad…”
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@Bellmanequation
4 years
Bet on when the car falls through the ice: "1 ticket buys you 5 minutes. Of course we can't promise it'll go down in your 5 minutes, but the person who's closest stands to win $500." A tradition in my hometown which featured in "American Gods" by @neilhimself (who lived there)
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2 years
The big question for Labor Day: do you denote labor as L as in Solow, or N (or n) as in Kydland and Prescott?
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2 years
Happy to announce that I'll be joining the Department of Economics at @MiamiHerbert @univmiami . Miami is the most exciting city right now, and I'm looking forward to working with my new colleagues to help make The U an even greater university.
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Noah Williams
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2 years
Ok I’m late to Andor & it’s just the Macguffin, but I can’t believe the Empire pays its workers in physical cash that they keep in a vault. They control the universe but don’t have direct deposit?
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
Plane flight is a good chance to revisit a classic that’s relevant today
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2 months
Post Kolmogorov’s axioms in every classroom
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2 years
Ed did so much, but let me just mention 3 papers, each of which set an agenda in economics: Kydland and Prescott (1977) Kydland and Prescott (1982) Mehra and Prescott (1985)
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The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2004

The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel 2004 was awarded jointly to Finn E. Kydland and Edward C. Prescott "for their contributions to dynamic macroeconomics: the...

www.nobelprize.org
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
1992 Money & Banking Preliminary Exam for @UChi_Economics PhD. 3 hours + 1 hour to read. Problem #1 : linear-quadratic general equilibrium model with distorting taxes. "Carefully describe an algorithm to compute an equilibrium." Also identification w/time aggregation. (The font!)
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2 years
Adding this tweet to my CV
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3 years
For some reason today I was remembering my first-year PhD econometrics class with Heckman. First day of class he announced he'd end lectures 2 weeks early & then we'd have review sessions. Not only did that not happen, but the final lecture (normally 90 min) ran for 3.5 hours.
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3 months
Nobu Kiyotaki; “This is a Mickey Mouse example, but don’t underestimate the power of Mickey Mouse.”
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Noah Williams
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1 year
Sometimes at the end of extensive DSGE modeling and Bayesian estimation, you’re left with a random walk forecast
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@NewYorkFed
New York Fed
@NewYorkFed
1 year
The change in the forecast relative to March is very substantial. Output growth is projected to be much higher throughout the forecast horizon than in March (1.0, 0.7, and 0.4 percent in 2023, 2024, and 2025 versus 0.2, 0.0, and 0.0 in March, respectively).
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2 years
Tonight again shows it’s hard to beat this forecasting model: E_t X(t+1) = X(t)
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1 year
I've always recalled Bob Lucas's wistful recollection of his family trip to Quebec. I don't think any other paper in economics has a conclusion like that.
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4 years
“Home haircuts probably won’t get you arrested.” Probably?
@Schreibernews
Jason Schreiber
@Schreibernews
4 years
NH law makes it illegal to cut hair without a proper license, but people who have resorted to home haircuts during #COVID19 shouldn’t worry about criminal charges, an official said.
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Noah Williams
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4 years
Choose a field of study you love and you won’t work a day in your life because there will be no academic jobs.
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
Update: we didn't get through all of this, but we did cover a lot. And honestly was one of the best teaching experiences of my career.
@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
Tentative reading list for the Economics PhD math camp, which I’ll be teaching for the first time in years. Obviously not all of all of them, but this was whittled down from a much bigger pile.
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Noah Williams
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3 years
The “Ackshually, price controls are good” take we’ve been waiting for
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Opinion | Fighting Inflation Means Taking On Corporations (Published 2021)

Easing spiking prices will take more than raising interest rates.

www.nytimes.com
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
New paper: "A Learning Model of Financial Instability" I show that learning about risk and return in a simple asset pricing model generates endogenous booms and busts like Minsky's financial instability hypothesis. Just sneaking under the wire for 2022.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
Fundamental dynamic instability in learning from prices leads to Minsky-type financial instability. Goal of completing the draft by year's end is in sight -- just have to proof before posting.
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11 months
The preamble of my LaTeX files is an accumulation of 25 years, littered with detritus and vestigial growth. I have no idea what may of these \usepackage commands do anymore.
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
JEDC Plenary talk by @ben_moll on “Heterogeneous-Agent Macro as a Gateway to Behavioral Macro” at #CEF2023 Slides here:
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4 years
Nice tribute from @UChi_Economics to Yiran Fan, PhD student who was killed in January.
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6 months
New paper: "Collusive Outcomes Without Collusion: Algorithmic Pricing in a Duopoly Model" w/ In-Koo Cho, now available here: We develop a model of algorithmic pricing which shuts down every channel for collusion yet still generates collusive outcomes.
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3 years
Gem I found when cleaning my office: print copy of Journal of Economic Theory, June 1972 (almost 50 years!) - Brock & Mirman optimal growth (predecessor to RBC) - Bewley GE with infinitely many commodities - Groves and Radner teams model I may have inherited this from @sndurlauf
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2 years
“Econometrics and Quantitative Economics” is the fastest growing master’s degree and second fastest bachelor’s degree program, via @HanoverResearch
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4 months
Measure theory is polarizing. Tentative results of follow up survey on Econ PhD math camp after now completing first year: 1. What was the most helpful topic we covered? 50%: measure theory & integration 2. What was the least helpful topic? 50%: measure theory & integration
@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
Tentative reading list for the Economics PhD math camp, which I’ll be teaching for the first time in years. Obviously not all of all of them, but this was whittled down from a much bigger pile.
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1 year
“Economics is fun. Learning the language of economic theory is hard. Best wishes, Edward C. Prescott 8 April 2010.” Inscription on signed copy of SLP for sale at a rare book site.
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1 year
Half of the Fed @federalreserve balance sheet shrinkage (QT) over the past year undone in a week
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
4 years
One of these states is in lockdown, one is reopening, one never locked down
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1 year
Bob was amazing and had such a huge impact. To get just a glimpse, read Tom Sargent's "Learning from Lucas"
@TimTkehoe
Tim Kehoe 🇺🇦
@TimTkehoe
1 year
Today is a sad day for economics. Robert E. Lucas, Jr., a great researcher and teacher died this morning.
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6 years
"Data seldom, if ever, speaks for itself. To use data effectively requires valid and revealing conceptual frameworks for understanding and interpreting patterns in data. [...] You have to do that through economic analysis."
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A Nobel-winning economist’s tips for how to deal with a more uncertain world

Lars Hansen says all financial models are wrong to some extent, but we can learn from building better ones.

qz.com
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Noah Williams
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7 years
About as much Madison as a photo can capture
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1 year
Updated Google Search Phillips Curve: • Inflation search interest peaked in August 2022 and has dropped to about half that high by May 2023. • But inflation search interest is still about double levels of 2019 & 2020 • Unemployment search interest remains low
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
A Phillips curve for Google searches on "inflation" and "unemployment" over the past two years looks about how you'd expect. We've been on vertical part since October 2021.
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2 years
So much gold in Sargent's "Learning from Lucas," "One morning in early 1973, Neil [Wallace] popped his head over the partition between our offices and said ‘Tom, our project is fatally flawed and over.’ Neil told me that he had read... (Lucas, 1972a)."
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4 years
How much of my life has been spent looking for a misplaced or missing } in LaTeX
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3 months
Communicated by J. von Neumann, 72 years ago: Bellman: "We are interested in a class of mathematical problems which arise in connection with situations which require that a bounded or unbounded sequence of operations be performed for the purpose of achieving a desired result."
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8 months
Rise and fall of the AEA winter meetings, 1980-2023
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3 years
Lesson from Debreu: Dynamics are a special case of statics, and uncertainty is a special case of certainty. It's all about defining the commodity space.
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3 years
@ben_golub Bob Lucas, arguably responsible for the most new ideas in macro in the last 50 years, told me, "New ideas are hard and people don't like to learn new things." The point being to fit in a new idea into something people already know, or a revision of what they think they know.
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1 year
Incredible panel on @JohnHCochrane 's great book: Barro, Sargent, & Leeper. Around the year 2000, Tom told that there were about 3 people in economics who liked the fiscal theory. The number is certainly higher now & John's book will increase it further.
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How Do Government Deficits and Debt Drive Inflation? | LIVE STREAM

What is the fundamental cause of inflation or deflation? The fiscal theory of price level argues that the amount of government debt, relative to long-run fis...

www.youtube.com
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1 year
When I teach economic growth & do growth accounting, following Young (& Krugman) I have long discussed Singapore as a case study. But now it's time to talk about Italy: • level of TFP down 17% since 2000 • In 1980, Italy was 20% more productive than US, now 27% less productive
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3 years
Building permits for housing units jumped 6% in 2020 & are up 40% since 2014. States like Idaho, Utah, Texas & Florida are seeing population growth but even more rapid housing growth, while California, New York, and Illinois have seen new housing decline relative to population.
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3 years
On price controls in @thedispatch w/ @alex_horenstein : "While limiting price increases seems like a straightforward remedy for inflation, a look at how price controls have worked in South America shows why such measures bring more problems than solutions."
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2 years
"Reject & resubmit" means what exactly?
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2 years
Always amazed to see students for the first time at the final exam.
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1 year
Four academic generations: 1. Lars Peter Hansen @UncertainLars 2. me (student of Lars at Chicago) 3. Chang Liu @changer_1 (my student at Wisconsin, at right) 4. Joseph Hoon & Zhongxi Zheng (students of Chang at NUS, at left)
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8 years
Frmr @Stanford Prvst: "intellectual intolerance, political one-sidedness, antithesis of what univ. should stand for"
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1 year
Without job market interviews, the winter AEA meeting is quickly becoming obsolete. Less than 6000 registered participants for a whopping 510 sessions. (taken from Jarda Borovicka on fb)
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5 years
Declining funding of public universities has led to: 1. Research univ: Higher tuition & more out-of-state enrollment 2. Other univ: Higher tuition & cuts in expenditure 3. Reduced degree attainment both undergrad & grad Unsurprising, but well documented.
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1 year
Econ folks, especially macro: If your model has no market clearing conditions at all, then it is a decision problem, not a partial equilibrium model.
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1 year
There is no gap between average pay and productivity
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@DonFSchneider
Donald Schneider
@DonFSchneider
1 year
There is no gap between average pay and average productivity as I explain here:
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3 years
I still don't think people understand the scale of this: the state of Wisconsin is now projecting a $2.1 billion surplus this year. That could finance a rebate of 22.7% of all income taxes paid.
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Wisconsin projects $4.4B more in tax revenue by mid-2023 following 'unprecedented' tax collections

New projections open up massive opportunities as the GOP-led budget committee looks to finalize the 2021-23 biennial budget by the end of the month.

madison.com
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2 years
“The Fed lost control of inflation by abandoning its decadeslong strategy of pre-emptive restraint—tightening before inflation takes hold. That policy, promoted by Fed Chairman Paul Volcker in the 1980s, has delivered price stability for nearly 40 years.”
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Opinion | Volcker, Powell and the Price of Amnesia About Monetary Policy

The Fed should have heeded the lessons of 1980s inflation.

www.wsj.com
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2 years
@JoeVavra R.I.P. to Ken Arbitrage-free Regionalized Options on Weather
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2 years
The “micro” approach to inflation was always mistaken, spinning stories about special factors while broad-based trends took hold.
@Neil_Irwin
Neil Irwin
@Neil_Irwin
2 years
I keep looking at the line item breakdown of the CPI report searching for silver linings and I just don't see any. This report is a disaster if you're a Fed or Biden administration official hoping this inflation will go away without a serious downturn.
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1 month
The University of Arkansas commemorates that Hayek accepted a one-year visiting position there to take advantage of the more lax divorce laws in the state.
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6 years
In 2014 Minnesota began a series of minimum wage increases, while it’s been constant in Wisconsin since 2010. Fast food restaurant employment in Minnesota (blue) and Wisconsin (red). #FRED @stlouisfed
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4 months
The stack of books that I’m drawing on in recent work is getting too high
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5 years
@RichardRubinDC 2018: 6.66%, the Audit of the Beast
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4 years
In the aggregate, increased government transfer payments over the past year have been accompanied by increased savings. (Correlation approx 0.98.)
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6 years
@aaron_hedlund @SpringerStats Drinkin’, smokin’, & Support Vector Machines
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2 years
Ben Bernanke to Milton Friedman in 2002 (on Friedman’s 90th birthday)
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2 years
We are relaunching the Economics PhD program at Miami @MiamiHerbert @univmiami in Fall 2023. We have redesigned the program & are excited to welcome a new class. Apply & join us in Miami! More info here: Feel free to reach out with any questions.
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6 years
Per capita GDP in Venezuela is down 46% since 2013. "The country has the world’s highest inflation, crime is rampant and academic surveys show many Venezuelans are unable to get enough to eat."
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1 year
Transitory just means an AR coefficient <1. Could be 0.999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999
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1 year
It's never the time to worry about moral hazard, apparently
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4 months
Misread this as DSGE, which was more interesting. “Professor Woodford, please report to the DSGE Headquarters for your latest assignment.”
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7 months
Comparative advantage for @MiamiHerbert : dinner outside with a job candidate in January. (lomo saltado & ceviche)
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1 year
Everyone moving to Miami. (Want to join: we’ll be hiring in economics at @MiamiHerbert this year, and recruiting another class of PhD students for fall 2024.)
@MorningBrew
Morning Brew ☕️
@MorningBrew
1 year
BREAKING: Messi chooses to join the MLS over the Saudi League and Barcelona. Will be joining Inter Miami, per multiple reports.
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2 years
Closing that door for the last time.
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2 years
Last class at @UWMadison ✅
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4 years
Coins now worth 5% over face value. Monetary history repeating...
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A local bank wants your coins, and it will pay you above face value for them

Community State Bank is giving both customers and non-customers an extra $5 for every $100 worth of coins they bring into the bank.

www.jsonline.com
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Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
3 years
In the January @JPolEcon out today. R.I.P. Alejandro
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
5 months
“I’m not able to learn mathematics easily, I have to work. It takes a very long time and I have a terrible memory. I forget things. So I try to work, despite these handicaps, and the way I worked was trying to understand really well the simple things.”
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Mathematician wins 2024 Abel prize for making sense of randomness

Michel Talagrand has won the 2024 Abel prize for his work researching probability theory and the extremes of randomness

www.newscientist.com
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
Applications for the Economics PhD program for Fall 2024 at @MiamiHerbert @univmiami are now open. We welcomed our first class in our revised program this fall and are excited about continuing growth with a new class. Apply by December 15. More info here:
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
3 years
Total factor productivity growth 2000-2019: US 11.9%, France 0.1%, Spain -3.8%, Italy -15.6%. (h/t: @JohnHCochrane by way @ChadJonesEcon and @lee_ohanian ) Cf: , which I'd missed
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
3 months
Me, asking Emi Nakamura a question at Midwest Macro
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
2 years
Books unpacked ✅ (at the office anyway)
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
This is a classic Sargent slide
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@a97xr
Alex Hughes
@a97xr
1 year
@ArashMV @changer_1 @DannyQuah @Bellmanequation @oo7zsx @ArashMV @Furno_Francesco slides from a Nov '22 presentation of the same name:
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
4 months
Today at the Networks conference: @JacksonmMatt presenting on supply chain disruptions, and @ben_golub presenting on multiplexing and diffusion
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
6 months
I really should have known the origin of the word “statistics”
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
3 years
Oh yes - With one second to spare! @runSRA_CIM
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
1 year
The original Euler equation from Euler (1744): N - dP/dx =0 Translating his notation, for a flow cost function F(t,x,ẋ) this is: ∂F/∂x - d/dt (∂F/∂ẋ) = 0. Same book has first use of (Lagrange) multipliers
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
7 years
. @TheInspiroBot is the best thing on the web right now.
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@Bellmanequation
Noah Williams
@Bellmanequation
7 months
Preview of coming attractions. Paper to come soon.
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