Senior editor, Carnegie Middle East Center. Author of The Ghosts of Martyrs Square: An Eyewitness Account of Lebanon's Life Struggle (Simon & Schuster 2010).
I've opened a Substack account, and my first post is a fascinating interview with the AUB's Tariq Tell, in which he talks about the legacy of the Tell family, including his uncle Wasfi al-Tell, and his own political trajectory. I do urge you to subscribe:
Absolutely. A shameful interview and interviewer
@JuliaHB1
. Covering her ineptitude by an ad hominem suggestion that Barghouti, an Arab, cannot deal with the fact she's a woman. Most anchors would be fired for such a train wreck.
Pretty devastating piece by
@LizSly
on how U.S. allies are appalled at the rout in Afghanistan and the absence of U.S. consultations with them, as well as the growing doubts about U.S. credibility with regard to its allies:
What seems to be happening (I could be wrong) is that the U.S. is slow walking Israel away from a full Gaza invasion, because they don't feel it will work, its objectives are unclear, civilian deaths will turn opinion against the U.S. and Israel, and it may spur a regional war.
So, after Israeli and U.S. officials told us that a Hamas command center was under Al-Shifa Hospital, suddenly that talking point has gone stone dead, after Israeli troops spent a day, in a “precise and targeted operation,” finding nothing. Admire the precision.
A memo from the Dutch embassy in Tel Aviv last November underlined that Israel “intends to deliberately cause massive destruction to infrastructure and civilian centres” in violation of the laws of war. It also saw ethic cleansing of the Palestinians in Gaza as "realistic."
Lebanon has reached a foundational moment with regard to Hezbollah. For a majority of Lebanese the party is the final rampart of the corrupt political class and the cause of the country’s regional isolation and disintegration. Hezbollah is trapped, it’s fate tied to kleptocrats.
The events in Beirut were likely a sending of messages, not unlike what happened in Khaldeh. The armed Amal and Hezbollah members were fired upon when they were about to enter "Christian" areas in Tayyouneh, as a way of saying these areas are off limits to hostile militias.
This only underscores how the amalgamation of criticism of Israel and antisemitism has emptied the term “antisemitism”—a term with great historical weight in the post-Holocaust world—of all meaning. It’s been instrumentalized by political charlatans to detract from their crimes.
There apparently isn’t a single head of government in Europe capable of saying very simply “The Israeli PM should shut the hell up. We’re tired of his deranged, dangerous nonsense”
The Hamas operation of yesterday was many things, but above all it was a hostile Iranian takeover of the Palestinian cause and an effort to make Hamas the sole legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. Mine for Diwan:
#Israel
#hamasattack
The instructions to stay indoors in Beirut are not very useful. In the radius of a kilometer of my apartment, all apartments have had their windows and the aluminum frames of their windows blown out. Tonight we’re virtually all sleeping outdoors.
#BeirutBlasts
@AssalRad
@aaronjmate
The Israeli explanation confirms it’s not a mistake. They openly admit they were targeting Hamas, truly or falsely, and say two Hamas members were killed; therefore, they knew precisely where the bombs would land, and the consequences. Everything else is irrelevant.
Reading the apocalyptic headlines in Lebanese newspapers today, one can reach certain clear conclusions. First, that the political class, starting with Hezbollah, has no clue about how to resolve Lebanon's escalating economic and financial problems.
For the first time a senior Lebanese figure strongly implies that what exploded in Beirut port on August 4 was a Hezbollah arms cache, a view privately shared by many people, against the government’s unconvincing official version:
I will be thinking of one person today: Wissam Eid, and ignoring another: Serge Brammertz. The first paid with his life for what the second should have done, and didn't.
Aoun wants a forensic audit, and he's right. But what kind of credibility can he have when he's covered for Bassil, and promoted him, for the past 16 years? This is a maneuver to save the wreckage of his presidency, so he can say, "I tried, but they just wouldn't let me."
I find this story full of question marks. I don’t doubt Hezbollah can use the airport at will, and has, but store material there? Why? To place arms in the first place Israel is likely to bomb? As for Karim’s skepticism about the whistleblower, I share it. Very fishy story.
The fact that Hezbollah controls the Beirut airport has been an open secret for the past twenty years.
But a mysterious “whistleblower” suddenly finding the urge to call The Telegraph and mention Hezbollah’s Security Chief could offer a perfect pretext for an Israeli bombardment
MTV picked up on my Beirut-Palermo article, without bothering to mention Carnegie or me. That's quite alright, I consider plagiarism to be the highest compliment.
My mother's cousin, Michel Bacos, captain of the Air France plane hijacked to Entebbe, Uganda, in 1976 has passed away at 94. The son of an Egyptian-Lebanese father and a French mother, his refusal to leave his passengers won him deserved praise:
International media now realize what has been obvious in Lebanon for weeks: Issam Abdullah and his colleagues were intentionally targeted. The fact that Israel targeted groups of journalists again on two occasions, killing two more, proved this:
Israeli officials are openly talking about the ethnic cleansing of the Palestinian population of Gaza, but otherwise it remains all quiet on the Western front, where the elites remain stalwart defenders of Israeli actions. Mine for Diwan:
Haaretz investigated figures for Israeli soldiers admitted into hospitals, and found a large discrepancy between those numbers and what the Israeli military announced. To the military's 1,593 injured, the paper found that more than 4,500 entered hospital:
Avi Shlaim has just published a revealing memoir, examining his Arab-Jewish identity, his move to Israel, before departing for Britain, all of which would lead to his becoming one of Israel's most prominent revisionist historians. I review his book here:
There is a growing view in Lebanon that the cabinet formation process is really a sideshow for something much more sinister, namely an effort to accelerate the collapse of the second Lebanese Republic and replace it with a new system.
I'm having trouble understanding why people don't want Gebran Bassil to go to Davos. I would have thought the real problem is that he intends to come back afterward.
Multiple accounts by released Palestinian prisoners, most of them teenagers, of physical abuse by their Israeli jailers, including up to the last day of their incarceration, as well as constant harassment. Yet their accounts receive much less coverage in Western media outlets.
Very interesting profile of Tariq Bitar, who like the late Wissam Eid has shown courage and perseverance against impossible odds. There yet remains a small core of public servants in Lebanon who retain self-respect and take their work seriously:
Forensic
@aaronjmate
article on U.S. hypocrisy in its reaction to the South African accusation of genocide against Israel, when the real purpose of the U.S. is simply to help Israel reimpose "its aura of power," after the security debacle of Oct. 7:
Key passage: “Kushner acknowledged that he might not be the one who finally creates peace in the Middle East, but said he at the very least wanted to “change the discussion.” Yes, let’s now normally proceed on the basis that Palestinians get nothing.
To understand why a long trial didn't reach a satisfactory verdict, you might want to read my interpretation of what happened, or rather what didn't happen, in the UN investigation of the Hariri assassination. It wasn't designed to find the guilty:
It would really help if EDL gave us electricity this evening, so we can clear up the devastation in our homes. But no one in this pathetic government actually thought about it,
@Hassan_B_Diab
or
@GhajarRaymond
. Shame on you.
It could just be a feeling, but I catch a sense of rising rage at what Lebanon’s vile political order, hardened by Hezbollah’s weapons, has created. A state of lies, corruption, intimidation, inequality, a system that has robbed people of their money, their children of a future.
We are at a major new juncture in the Middle East, as the revival of the nuclear deal with Iran appears imminent. It’s in this context that we need to understand the UAE’s invitation to Bashar al-Assad and the Gulf states’ decision to send their ambassadors back to Beirut.
Hasn't one item bothered anybody? Everyone in Beirut and the mountains heard aircraft at the time of the explosion. Isn't it odd that Hezbollah declared Israel innocent of the attack instead of saying that the presence of aircraft merited a closer investigation of what happened?
Good for Luqman Slim’s family to demand an autopsy by a private doctor. Let all the details of the terrible crime and the depraved behavior of the killers come out, not be buried by the officials of a Lebanese state that will do its best to cover everything up.
#LokmanSlim
Many headaches ahead. Mikati will only head a cabinet if Aoun accepts the Hariri conditions. Aoun and Bassil’s candidates will only be new Hassan Diabs. We’re in for a long interregnum as everyone awaits elections. Aoun has lost any chance of saving his disastrous mandate.
Hezbollah thought it dominated the state, but all it did was destroy it. The logic of the state cannot coexist with that of Hezbollah, based on feeding off the state and slowly killing it—no effort to deny the responsibility of the political class in this parasitic relationship.4
Hezbollah Has Trapped Itself: By trying to preserve a corrupt political order, the pro-Iranian party has become identified with it. The implications may be far-reaching. Mine for Diwan:
Why does Hezbollah suddenly seem to have so many enemies in Lebanon? They refuse to take into consideration the wishes of the majority of Lebanese, and the party's default status is hubris. Mine for Diwan:
What I’m hearing is that a senior Lebanese politician sought to transfer around $300m out of the country, and Vourakis refused to sign off on it. When bank officials did so, Vourakis resigned. The rumor requires confirmation but is what is circulating in the banking community.
What bothers me about the Twitter decision regarding Trump is that for years the platform took advantage of his handle and the followers it generated. Now it sees that this loathsome character is on the defensive and is trying to sell its ban as morally courageous. Hypocrisy.
Michael Aoun has wasted his presidency, entering office with not a single original idea or program. When Lebanon needs a leader who can help guide it out of its morass, don't waste your time looking to him for a way out. Mine for the
@TheNationalUAE
:
What did Riad Salameh effectively do three days ago? He placed a small nuclear bomb in the plate of the political leadership, telling them the state could no longer finance their subsidies-based patronage system that helped sustain their power and the cartels they controlled.
Why has
@MEAAIRLIBAN
stopped serving alcohol in economy class for the last 2 years, despite countless complaints from passengers that have been ignored? The prices they charge are sky high and they can sell alcohol if the aim is to cut costs. What a shame for a respected company.
I speculate here on how Hezbollah and Israel may behave as the tension rises in south Lebanon. While a conflict is definitely a possibility, both sides may share a desire to avoid an escalation that leads to a regional conflagration, for
@NationalComment
:
How many times have you heard the United States is disengaging from the Middle East? It may be more accurate to say that it is the Middle East that is disengaging from America. Mine for Diwan:
Mearsheimer's (
@MearsheimerJ
) summary is exceptionally powerful and accurate, and will doubtless anger many in the U.S. elite, much the same way as his highly accurate comments on Ukraine have:
As much as I sympathize with Syrian refugees, a major burden of responsibility for the resentment directed against them is on the international community and international organizations, whose sole policy has been to keep them in place indefinitely in regional countries.
I find quite puzzling the over-the-top reaction of some people to the simple assertion I made in a tweet that people with whom I’ve spoken, and who are reliable, insist that they saw aircraft bombing the port. Are they right? I have no idea.
Roadblocks are an act of sabotage, but blocking the government for over 4 months is not? Blocking the government for 2 years is not? Can someone wake him up for an hour and wheel him to the supermarket, so he knows what's going on?
#MarieAntoinetteAoun
Another interesting
@aaronjmate
piece on the fiasco of U.S.-European policy in Ukraine, and how a Russian intelligence coup against Germany publicized Western involvement in the country that many would have preferred to keep quiet:
After Israel concluded agreements with the UAE and Bahrain, suddenly Iran’s strategy of building forward operating bases against Israel in Lebanon and Syria has been turned on Tehran. Now the Israelis have, potentially, two forward operating bases in the Gulf to strike Iran.
The Quds Brigades of the Islamic Jihad have said they tried to infiltrate fighters into Israel from Lebanon. So Lebanon has, once again, become a platform to liberate Palestine, the heaviest price for which will be paid by the population of the south. History repeats itself.
Why were foreign rescue teams not allowed to come to Beirut today? Do the Lebanese government and those parties propping it up have something to hide in the port area? I'm open to a better explanation.
The Lebanon my generation knew died at 100. In its postwar decades it was mostly a system of plunder, but today it is a country without prospects of improvement, as the notion of a shared national community of sects is over. Mine for
@TheNationalNews
:
Helpless bystander or accomplice in the crime?
@aaronjmate
pens another hard-hitting piece at his Substack account, on the Biden administration's facilitation of the slaughter in Gaza:
In 2006, Luqman Slim flew back from the U.S. to Cyprus, from where he caught a ride to Lebanon under siege on a French helicopter, before returning to his home in Haret Hreik under Israeli bombardment. Yet are still worthless cretins today accusing him of having been a traitor.
Within a few hours of each other, Jabbour Douaihy and Fares Sassine left us--dear friends whose destinies were tied. For those who knew them the sorrow is immense and the vacuum they leave no less so. The only (modest) consolation is that neither knew the other had died.
Regardless of whether Ghosn was mistreated by Japan’s judiciary, if it’s true Aoun met with Carlos Ghosn, then the presidential palace has no one with an IQ above 30 to advise against welcoming an international fugitive. Madness when Lebanon needs sanity:
The most perfect criminal commonwealth is one where criminals take over state activities, while many don't believe their actions are criminal. For a long time this was Sicily, but today Lebanon has reached a higher level of perfection. Mine for Diwan:
Calls for
@Najib_Mikati
’s resignation make no sense. He has to resign for what a minister said before he became a minister? As if Lebanon could afford being without a cabinet again. The Gulf reaction goes well beyond Qordahi’s remarks, and nothing Mikati does will change that.
Pence signs Israeli ordnance that may cause the death of civilians. And this is a man who will bore you stiff on an hourly basis on his love of God and his devotion to the Bible.
"هذه المره مسؤوليين إمريكيين يكتبون أمنياتهم على الذخيره التي سيتم إطلاقها على غزه
أي إجرام وصل إليه هؤلاء.!
"نائب الرئيس الأمريكي السابق مايك بنس
اثناء زيارته لإسرائيل
يذهب لزيارة القوات الإسرائيلية على حدود غزه
ويقوم بكتابه أمنياته على ذخيره سيتم إطلاقها على المدنيين في غزه"
An FBI report says around 552 tons of ammonium nitrate exploded in Beirut port on Aug. 4, not the 2,754-ton figure usually cited. Had the criminals in power left the entire amount there, Beirut would have been Hiroshima, and most of us would be a memory:
The Biden administration’s approach to Israel has been both subtle and smart, despite condemnation in the Arab world. While backing Israel was always inevitable, a primary aim was to contain Israel’s reaction to Oct. 7 and avoid being drawn into a regional war.
In a week Hezbollah has found itself caught up in two sectarian clashes—in Khaldeh and now with the Druze. They will likely be contained, but this can hardly be reassuring to the party if it is looking for a domestic Lebanese consensus in the event of a conflict with Israel.
I'm relived the Israelis have held their promise to the Americans not to kill too many Palestinians. In 24 hours, only 184 people have been killed. Boy Biden and Blinken sure can strike fear in Israeli hearts, can't they?
So the Hezbollah strategy today to widen the front with Israel, using Hamas and Islamic Jihad, involves taking Lebanon back to the 1960s and 70s, when the road to Palestine passed through Lebanon? How many Lebanese—no, actually how many southern Lebanese—agree with this choice?
It’s very surprising that there seems to be plenty of electricity these days, even in the mountains. Why is that? Does it have something to do with the fact that less fuel is being smuggled in this time of profound crisis? Any other explanations? All views welcomed.
Everyone seems to assume that a Lebanon war is inevitable. In my latest for Diwan, I argue that while a war is indeed possible, Israel seems to have no military solution for its problems better than a negotiated solution or a return to the status quo ante:
If there is one interview to listen to, far from the breathless mainstream interpretations of the Ukraine war, it’s this
@aaronjmate
discussion with
@MearsheimerJ
. Brilliant, pretty merciless analysis:
As the Hariri tribunal gives way to other news, a question should linger in people's minds: What does it mean when a tribunal repeatedly cites lack of evidence in its judgement? In this case, given that a UN commission operated for years, it means no investigation took place.
“Ce n'est pas sous le mandat de Michel Aoun que l'on touchera à la souveraineté libanaise,” says Aoun, who, more than anyone else, has allowed Lebanon to become an Iranian outpost, and who 30 years ago in October only reinforced Syrian dominance:
Lebanon is preparing for another failed confinement, this time for 3 weeks, because the previous confinement of 2 weeks did nothing. Their policy is not based on science but on the idiotic notion that when something fails, it’s because it wasn’t imposed in a tough enough way.
It seems the U.S. has indeed approved sending gas via Jordan and Syria to Lebanon. A second aspect of this, a friend reports from Washington, is that Jordanian power will also be sent to Lebanon. That explains Nasrallah’s ploy, indicating Arab competition with Iran over Lebanon.
Erdan's arrogance is breathtaking. The Israelis won't accept that their illegal occupation of the West Bank (and the Golan), like their suffocation of Gaza, is the problem. Everything that happens to them comes out of the blue, for no reason, without context. That's shocking.
The shocking speech by the
@UN
Secretary-General at the Security Council meeting, while rockets are being fired at all of Israel, proved conclusively, beyond any doubt, that the Secretary-General is completely disconnected from the reality in our region and that he views the
Lebanon’s energy minister
@GhajarRaymond
announced with great fanfare a week ago that electricity rationing would be gradually reduced, and that by today this would be felt by the Lebanese. I’ve had 1 hour of electricity all day today. Mr. Minister, will the lies ever stop?
Nasrallah wants judge Bitar to present proof in his investigation of the port explosion, but opposes his efforts to question officials—presumably to get the proof he needs to advance his investigation. If Hezbollah wanted to look guiltier, it couldn’t:
Nasrallah's speech today, so soon after his comments last week, suggests genuine anxiety that (1) no one appeared to listen to him and (2) Hezbollah may pay a price for any profound transformation in Lebanon, so that (3) we may be moving toward an escalation by the party.
Photos and videos are circulating on social media in Lebanon today, showing trucks filled with fuel, paid for through Lebanon's dwindling foreign currency reserves, waiting to enter Syria through the Aboudiyyeh crossing so that the fuel can be sold at a higher price. Disgraceful.
The arrogance of the headline quote is remarkable. As if in the past half-century Lebanon invaded Israel twice, destroyed its infrastructure on multiple occasions, and occupied its land for a decade and a half. Israeli security requires our insecurity:
Smuggling to Syria is “an integral part of the resistance”, according to a cleric close to Hezbollah.
This is an acknowledgment that Hezbollah is engaging in the smuggling of goods to regime-held areas.
I don’t think the group has admitted that before.
Hezbollah's and Amal's tactics are becoming clearer: repress protests violently in Shia areas; demobilize protestors in other areas with fears of sectarian warfare; force Hariri's hand if possible; keep the corrupt, foul system in place against the majority of Lebanese.
Among the measures the Lebanese government may take is to tell public sector employees to stay home. Good idea, but I’m not sure how this changes things from the pre-coronavirus period.
What is it about these people that makes them live in an alternative, blindingly stupid, reality? They refuse to see that rejection of Bassil is profound and visceral. The FPM has no credibility and Aoun's mandate has proven to be a national fiasco:
Many want an international investigation of the Aug. 4 Beirut port explosion. If the Hariri assassination investigation is any indicator, the UN will avoid a serious investigation, will promote any investigator who fails to do his job, and will only betray the victims' families.
A number of Lebanese commentators in the U.S. are pushing for sanctions on Lebanon, oblivious to the fact that the consequences would be devastating for an economy on the verge of bankruptcy, while doing nothing to harm Hezbollah. In fact such a step would likely strengthen it.
U.S. policy confusion in Syria has pushed its allies to make deals with Russia. Trump is proving a continuation of Obama, in many regards, despite the rhetoric on Iran. Much sound and fury signifying nothing:
Please pinch me. Is he blaming the French for having organized international conferences on Lebanon’s behalf, when Aoun lived under French protection after having fled Baabda? How do you define ingratitude and “really not worth the bloody effort”?
As the call to prayer was being broadcast last night in the village of Budrus, in the central occupied West Bank, an Israeli soldier asked his fellow to film him throwing a stun grenade inside a mosque in the village.
The Beirut airport cafes and snack outlets are closing, which is excellent news for anyone who over bought anything from those thieves. They were examples of the abject, institutionalized robbery characterizing our country. Good riddance to bad rubbish:
Hezbollah’s Suicidal Red Line: The party’s rejection of an IMF bailout may ultimately mean the end of Hassan Diab’s government, and of Lebanon itself. Mine, at Diwan:
What’s happening on the Lebanese-Israeli border now appears to be an effort to shape a post-Gaza reality along the border. Both Hezbollah and Israel are flexing their muscles to enhance their position in future negotiations.