Contraction and expansion. Price always does one of three options. There is nothing else. Leading timeframe, expansion ends, balance (pause in trend), then expansion again.
@saxena_puru
I live in Norway. Society opens today, no more restrictions. Gov says Corona is now something we just have to live with, live flu and common cold.
$SPX Here is one alternative I proposed in June, and it is still valid. Market does what she wants. I see people calling for $2250. People were calling for 1200 in March 2020. My point is, you never know. Let price lead, and lose your bias. Market is close to fair value. 15%-ish.
$SPY Longer term view. I'm expecting a rally into recession. (1) History shows markets always do that, (2) there is still enough liquidity, and (3) everybody expects a crash. Tell me, if you know how to drive a car, how many times have you avoided a crash you saw coming?
$SPX If you take the 2008-2009 values, things become very funny. Is this what is in store for us? First correction a zigzag, a 13% bounce would meet rejection by the weekly MA50, exactly like in 2008. Then there is that 2018 diagonal, meeting price at 55% further drop.
$SPX I'm often asked for my long term outlook. I believe in an extended bull market well into 2030. We would currently be in a cycle 2 correction. No estimated targets. It should last until May 2022. Not a given, there are other alternatives too. I currently favour this one.
$NIO people think that I donβt like this asset. Many of you told me to hold at $55, others told me to enter at $29, then at $18. Now youβre telling me I should buy here. All the time I have said the same: downtrend, patience, wait for a reversal to make money. That is trading.
$NIO Using the 10day tf to filter noise. FVG drawn, next time price will slice through it to $15.18 or $16.69. Price is consolidating, gathering energy, so a break out would be sustainable. We have to be ready.
$NQ_F Cleaned up and sorted degrees. The red impulse would make everybody believe the correction is over. The target for this impulse wave aligns with the daily MA50 and the weekly MA20.
$NIO The bulls alternative is clear. We'll have to wait for the pending correction, and see what we get. If price stays inside the black channel, the correction could be over. If it moves outside, it will likely retest the blue channel. We shouldn't think that far ahead though.
$SPX This is what I saw, some months back. It is still a valid option. Alternatively, we turn here somewhere, but that is the most obvious path, and IMO the least likely to happen. Rally into recession, bullish into March '23, then head lower to find a bottom during '24.
$NIO Textbook break out. Not a lot of short interest prior, so no rush. This should hold supports now, and slowly start trending higher into the next few weeks. My stop is at $7.40, but I'll look for an exit if D1 EMA9 fails.
Tgts $9.22, $10.03, $11, $12.47, $13.96 and $16.17.
$NIO Someone asked me for my count. This is what I proposed, and it is setting up. If next week confirms a reversal, the push higher can be volatile.
Volatile waves are 3rd waves. C waves are third waves. Investors' best hope is to get a slow grind to invalidate this proposal.
$SPX Here are two scenarios, one considered bullish, the other bearish, that both facilitate a recession bottom in 2H23. The only difference is that the bearish scenario makes a lower low before 2H23, where in the bullish scenario, the roaring twenties are starting now.
$NIO Been a long time coming. We had the EMA21 bounce on the weekly, followed by the expected 3 waves lower. Now the daily EMA50 downtrend has ended, and we have a daily hammer. Converging stage next, reversal in progress.
$NIO En route. Weekly EMA50 downtrend has officially ended. 10Day EMA50 is flattening, opening the door like Bottas for any competitor. RSI strong. Lesgo!
$ES_F Cleaned up the chart, worked out the new style. I can't make it clearer than this. As for the macro outlook, I would say that the current setup is definitely confirming completion of triple extended impulse wave, and potential for a megaphone implies pending continuation.
Understand the pattern, draw the line, then wait for the setups, and play. Repeatable. Early entry the riskiest, reversal entry solid, break out entry the big chase wave, then the flag gives the short or continuation.
I want to say Happy Easter to all. Some of you have become a much appreciated part of my daily social life, even if all of us think we are anonymous. Keep taking responsibility for who you are in the digital world, and keep building community. Only together can we be the best. β€οΈ
$ES_F As I've pointed out in my plans of the past two weeks, each time we see a consolidation now, the get smaller. This means that the push is extending into the smallest timeframe, indicating that a top is near.
Today's sell off was the first time that price established
$SPX With its biggest holdings clearly showing potential for bounces, I feel confident that my call for at least a small bounce, is probable. As said, may dip lower first, but there likely won't be a straight line down from here.
$NIO Shaking out weak bulls. Retested the entry, and found more demand. Bullish close. The EMA50 push failed, technically, $5.02 and $5.06 are targets now.
$NIO Consolidating above break out level. Squeeze leg complete. Don't think you're looking at a wave 4 here. You're not. Push wave complete, and now it is ONLY about the technical levels. $4.58 the lowest, but to be immediately bullish, no lower than $4.85.
$NIO as said, US sells, China buys. Shorting this, competes with a Quantitive Easing economy. If you remember QE from the COVID dip, QE means βbuy all dipsβ.
Iβm not trading this blind, however, but long at support is the QE game. Pick the winners, donβt short the losers.
$6.09
$NIO Finally some relief for a lot of stuck good people. Remember who posted the levels.
$6.16 confirms a technical reversal, and above $6.88, the low is in.
$NIO Strong downtrend. Hourly charts show potential for a bounce, but has a clear path directly lower from here. I'm not keen on shorting here, but I see no reason to go long yet.
$SPX Price reached the green median. W3 reached 1.06 W1, W5 close to 1.272 W3. No overlaps, motive structure with 3 impulses. This C wave complies with the guideline of wave formation. Hourly sell candle, but otherwise strong close.
$NIO If $4.21 is breached, the weekly EMA50 push fails, and the weekly EMA9 reclaims. I'm still not a fan of that bottom, but the Hong Kong listing undercut it, which qualifies as a strong double bottom.
Break out confirmation above $4.62.
I'm not long this, but fingers crossed
For my $NIO friends. The break out is holding as the Chinese index finally broke out of a weekly base. We should expect to see higher highs for quality stocks like $BABA and $KWEB, but the QE tide should lift also some of the more speculative plays. $4.30 first hurdle.
$SPX I can't subscribe to the ABC view, because there is only corrective price action, and not an actual C wave. Besides that, my primary count is still valid and in play.
I'll be off then :-) Few places in the world are more beautiful than the Norwegian west-land. I am going salmon fishing in my beloved river, the secret fishing spot that nobody knows about, not even the fish. Have a great day, week, and see you next week.
$ES_F A thought that we have been discussing here. We can get a decent bounce, but the pattern looks far from complete. Of course, anything can happen, but for now, this looks like a great moment to lure retail back in, then continue downward during the second week of October.
$NIO I had a Denny follower tell me that letting a loss get bigger than 8% is no problem if the stock goes back to the highs in the future. These comments stuck with me, and I figured to show why I think that holding a bag with hopes to break even is not a good investment
$SPX Beautiful structure. I take pride in my work. Nailed this, taking the win. No guarantees for future work, It'll never be easy, so keep climbing the ladder.
What $NIO, $RIVN, $LCID, $TLRY, $CGC, $MSOS etc. (start ups in new industries) bag holders failed to anticipate, is that a high interest environment weighs heavy on loss making assets that depend on external financing to support their CAPEX and investment needs.
You see how
$NIO Ignore all the opinionated avatars and wait for price to lead. We've had three solid reversal setups in the past 3 months, and 2 of them paid handsomely, while the last one failed to trigger.
The next one will be the big one. It doesn't matter where it sets up. All that
$NIO The fact that it is holding while markets pull back, is a sign of accumulation. Break out retest in progress, with first pull back zone reached. Trading is boring. Just what it is.
$NIO This is the expect push. Now we learn if it goes higher, or not... This was the setup, the rest is beyond my control.
Don't wreck your account π
$NIO Target reached (already on Thursday) which was the green upper box boundary. If $4.85 is lost, buyer exhaustion confirms a failed break out. The red UTL represents the D1 EMA9 uptrend.
Price has to define an H4 range and hold while the leading EMA catches up.
Iβm going to start preparing my daily trade plan on Substack. It allows for many more characters than Twitter, sorts on date, and allows for many charts in a single post. Maybe Iβll share them here, if anyone is interested.
$NIO fair value is about $3.40. PE ratio -15.5, PB ratio 4.7 (industry avg 2.8), debt to equity ratio 44%, gross margin 18%, net profit margin -29%, expected profitability in 3 years. Adequate balance sheet, moderate financial health and high growth potential. 337% overvalued.
$SPY EW is a hobby. Gotta love the butterfly B wave. This is my trademark Powerpuff Correction. I still feel that the X wave is somewhat slim, but the larger corrections match in time and velocity. I'd love to see valid proposals with a different outcome.
Fact: around tops I claim weβre headed lower, and people get mad. Around bottoms I claim weβre setting up for a bounce, and people get mad. It is literally always the same.
$NIO Big win today, gapping up 10% into a daily bearish imbalance. This at least eliminates the prospect of immediate downside. Bears shorting daily reversal is playing with fire. Sell the rally until the average transaction price starts to rise. Congrats if you followed my lead.
$SPX All eyes on TA here. Hourly reversal attempt in play. C wave structure is very tough to interpret. It is trying really hard to look like an impulse wave, but breaking out would most likely make it a zigzag instead.
$ES_F $SPX $SPY I just closed all my longs at the top trend line of the fork. What a ride, what a move, what a week. Thanks for everything,
@Trading_Boxes
and
@stuart_rat89
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$NIO Markets just imploded today, but this held exactly where I wanted it to hold. If markets are green tomorrow, there is no reason for this to make a lower low. It is that simple.
$NIO At support. Hourly uptrend - which is what I mentioned I want to see. Just has to hold here, and then China will (likely) buy this higher again tomorrow.
$ES_F Broke out of the channel, suggesting that a new pattern at degree is in play. Depth of pull back will be of essence to estimate potential upside. Expecting a B wave, which should top out just about when all the frogs start screaming for a melt up.
$NIO A C wave to complete the proposed inverted ABC would sort that weekly bullish divergence nicely. After that, one more ABC would complete a bottoming formation. That second correction could close the gaps. Or not. Frogs have gone silent, so bottom is close. All eyes on price!