Michael Burry, the man who got rich predicting the 2008 financial crisis, warned us all in a tweet of potential Weimar Germany like inflation. Then the SEC paid him a visit. Let that sink in real good for a minute.
More evident now that we ARE in "Return to Normal" (highly abnormal) Stage of the Super Bubble. In this phase bubble chaser arrogance returns. Burry bashing is testament. Important to keep in mind that pride always comes before the fall.
Credit Default Swaps on Credit Suisse are skyrocketing. Bank is deeply intertwined with U.S. financial system. We're not being told the truth on potential for systemic risk.
In 1929 Market Cap to GDP (top indicator of overvaluation) was near 100%. In 2000 it was over 150%. Both preceded major corrections. Current 2021 super bubble is around 215%. Any questions?
Chart breakdown of Nasdaq big picture. "Return to Normal" phase of Super Bubble. Sometimes you just need to gain real perspective on how truly ridiculous/overpriced the situation.
In financial bubble of 2007, the "Return to Normal" stage preceeded a roughly 50% drop in S&P 500. Coincidentally, interest rates had just gone to 4.75%, same level hit recently in this much larger everything bubble.
Always good to remember that when CNBC brings on Top Signal Tom Lee, it means whales are desperate for exit liquidity. Don't forget it. Happened prior to 2008 bubble burst and S&P 500 went to 666.
Biggest landlord in U.S. is now the Fed. They bought $3 trill in MBS with printed currency they created from nothing. So, technically they own your homes and have bid prices up against those in the market to buy. It's a great scandal friends. Borrower is servant to the lender.
Return to "normal" (abnormal) phase of the Super Bubble is complete and has lured in every gambler remaining. In future retrospect, it will be known as "The Great Trap." The G.O.A.T. of "market" enticement. Right after rate hike and at extreme greed/overbought levels. Just epic.
In 1929, U.S. was in a major bubble. Market Cap to GDP was 100%. It collapsed.
In 2000, U.S. was in a major bubble. Market Cap to GDP was 150%. It collapsed.
In 2024, U.S. is in the Mother Of All Bubbles. Market Cap to GDP is nearly 200%. It...
Swiss Central Bank buys U.S. stonks like a fiat (inflation) printing hedgefund. Should be illegal. Something big is going on under surface and it's not just Credit Suisse. Multiple banks bidding U.S. $'s using Swiss as cover. Dollar system suspect. Something systemic is brewing.
Last time Fed Discount Window emergency borrowing skied like this was during 2008 financial crisis. S&P 500 went on to drop roughly 50%. Keep in mind, this super bubble is a lot larger, with raging inflation, and much more egregious debt levels.
FDIC is supposed to protect your account in bank failure up to $250k. Officially, it apparently has about 1.3% of cash it would need to replace all insured deposits. On a typical day, it has $50 bill. Current commercial bank deposits are nearly $18 trill. What does that tell you?
We've got Fed Chairs with $100 mill portfolios printing hog wild. We've got Fed President's flipping stocks. We've got members of Congress trading on inside info. Lunacy is out of control. It's a damn fugazi festival. U.S. needs a Teddy Roosevelt like figure to kick some ass.
Love him, hate him, or don't know him, Bannon is 100% right on this point about the Fed. People are starting to wake up on a larger level and it's beautiful.
Carl Icahn is apparently betting on CPLie coming in hot (release date is February 14th at 8:30am). Bought a $5 bill position (notional) in $SPX puts. 4050 strike that expires on February 17th.
Yellen says she "still believes that the U.S. economy (Stonk Matrix) could have a soft landing."
*Check out this New York Times headline from 2007 right before financial crash. "Fed Chairman projects soft landing for U.S. economy." It's a fools paradise.
The initial drop will be a swift 7% followed by a circuit breaker. Then it will quickly escalate to 15%. There will be no shorts to create a floor with buys to cover. Panic will set in after dip buys fail for the first time.
"A 45-degree angle in finance means one thing - fraud."
-- Harry Markopolos
*Wonder what he'd think of this 80-degree angle in the Staged & Political 500.
Tweeted a little while back on potential Head & Shoulders Pattern developing on S&P 500. Looking more like it may be setting up. Below is an updated version of the chart.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said the Fed is a "criminal agency, a vacuum cleaner for Wall Street to shift wealth upward to this Kleptocracy" and that "the Fed is captured by Wall Street."
He's 100% correct. Have preached on this for years via Twitter.
Market Cap to GDP (Buffett's top indicator of overvaluation) is now back to a crazy 175% - significantly overvalued. This is well beyond the peak of 2000 internet super bubble insanity. Fact is simple...anyone chasing the indices here is on a fool's errand by overpaying big time.
One of the biggest things nobody has talked about...Fed quietly reduced the Reserve Requirement from 10% to 0% in midst of Covid crash March 2020. Banks are no longer required to keep any cash in their vaults.
@CathieDWood
@thelastguevara
Cathie, you got lucky on the Tesla call and were a product of unprecedented euphoria and Fed liquidity. Just be honest with people.
@unusual_whales
Uh oh, another bailout baby crying for a treat. What's Cuban's exposure? He's supposed to be an entrepreneurial free market Capitalist.
Ahead of 1929 crash, celebrities were pumping stocks like no tomorrow and stocks were making all-time highs. No, they didn't have social media, but they did have radio. Sound familiar?
"Inflation is transitory." New Household Currency is up like 500% since Covid and not declining! Hyperinflation type activity. Most are saving that cash and using credit card debt instead. It's keeping velocity low temporarily. This is serious friends. Something's bound to break.
Wilshire 5000 is an index that tracks performance of entire U.S. stock "market." Other proxies contain as little as a few hundred companies or less (S&P 500/Dow Jones). Below is the big picture scenario...
As cautioned in past tweets, if everything is sound with the banking system, why did the Fed have to resort to a Zero Reserve Requirement stealth style in midst of the great Covid wealth transfer bamboozle?
Those chasing $AAPL must not have listened to the conference call. CFO said Q1 revenue will decelerate compared to September quarter. He also said Mac revenue will decline substantially in holiday quarter. So much for "forward looking."
On February 27th 2008, then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke said he sees "no recession." S&P 500 was at roughly 1400. It went on to drop over 50% to its 666 bottom in 2009.
NY Fed trading desks and Treasury Exchange Stabilization Fund are working hard to keep Ponzi afloat (much less effective) - QE style. Yellen's an ex-central banker and it smells political. Obvious intervention is testament that there's no "free market." It's prolonging inflation.
Michael Lewis (author of Flash Boys, Liar's Poker, The Big Short) said "U.S. stock market, the most iconic market in global capitalism, is rigged." When asked who is rigging it, he stated a "combination of the stock exchanges, big Wall Street banks, and high-frequency traders."
In 2000 super bubble burst S&P 500 dropped 50%. In 2008 financial crisis it dropped around 65%. It's only down 20% from highs here. Far worse for Nasdaq in 2000 (80%). Does Serfdom really believe a much larger everything bubble with egregious debt/inflation ends in anything less?
Inflation has never come down once above 5% without a Fed Funds Rate higher than CPI. There has never been a soft landing once inflation got above the 4.5% level. Let that sink in a minute.
Capitulation of Big Short's Michael Burry is one of the most bearish signs you could ever see. That's looking at the forest, not the trees. Most everyone is too hyperfocused on daily/hourly indices price action which entirely drives their sentiment. They're not seeing full scope.
Due to Fed Cat Bounce™️ Indices (Dow, Nasdaq, S&P) went from 18 RSI to 90 RSI (monthly) in just 5 business days - insane. Now in Downward Channel Pattern. Just like that it's back to extreme overbought territory.
Double Top Chart Pattern on S&P 500 in 4200 vicinity (if right side of Head & Shoulders was to not hold). Keep in mind, resistance is never a perfect science. It's often brought just above it for max trapping into rug pull.
Well, well, well, look at what we have here. It's time to start telling it like it is...The Stonk Matrix is rigged and the Fed is political. No more sugar coating it.
If a citizen steals a car, they get a prison sentence. If a central banker steals an entire nations purchasing power, they get a Nobel Prize in Economics.
Market Cap to GDP (Buffett's overvaluation indicator) is still higher than peak of the insane 2000 Internet super bubble before it burst at 150%. Inflation and debt levels were nowhere close to today. Let that sink in a moment.
One of the most bearish current signals of Mega Bubble top is perceived bears ZeroHedge and NorthmanTrader recently appearing to turn bullish. Highly characteristic of 'End of Cycle.' Never forget it.
In case anyone wonders why indices would prop green today with multiple bank failures...More treasury bids today (QE) and NY Fed was buying futures last night via their two trading floors at Chicago Futures Exchange. Fed is like a hedge fund with a digital inflation/debt printer.
Big jump in Charles Schwab $SCHW Credit Default Swaps is probably nothing. Animal Spirits should just bury their heads in the sand Ostrich-style and ignore it.
Market Cap to GDP is the top indicator Buffett uses to gauge an overvalued market. It's now a mind blowing 205%. This is far worse than the insane 2000 bubble. It was less than 150%.
Below chart is testament that Nasdaq IS the Money Supply/CPI (fugazi). Pay attention to what happened in 2000 and 2007 super bubbles after similar aggressive upward Rate of Change in Fed Funds Rate (bottom).
S&P 500 drops into red around 11:10 am. At 11:15 am there's a tweet that Fed bids on $13 billion in Treasuries. Not long after, Fed rate jawbone rhetoric from Vice Chair Brainard appears. S&P 500 goes green. This is pure mark manipulation folks.
What you witnessed today is just a small taste of what's to come - a warning shot over the bow. Wait until you experience a bidless algorithmic 7% collapse in a single day, with no shorts to create a floor. It's terrifying how the masses are totally out of touch with reality.
Sell your stonks.
Sell your real estate.
Sell your vehicles.
Sell it all.
These highly artificially inflated prices simply aren't real.
Soon people will see and it'll be too late.
Don't say Minsky didn't warn you.
@davidicke
Exactly David. The Order wasn't trying to take him out. They were trying to make him a hero for reinstallation. That's why a 20 year old actor from a Deep BlackRock commercial was used. As you know, The Order controls and plays both sides.
Imagine being a simpleton that actually believes inflation is "coming down." It's only risen hockey stick style since gold standard removal 1971 (perpetual and compounding).