Avi Gilburt is an Elliott Wave market analyst & founder of ElliottWaveTrader®, a registered service mark of ElliottWaveTrader LLC. Tap "View more" for terms.
As we approach our target for wave iii of 3 in
#silver
, I am expecting a bounce to begin in the near term for wave iv of 3. It is during this bounce that we begin to see positive divergences developing on the 144-minute MACD. So, let's have a bit more patience and allow a
Bigger picture time. I am seeing signs of bottoming across the board. Whether we need that lower low or not, my expectation is that we are setting up a nice "bounce." Furthermore, as long as this drop does not directly take us to the 4205SPX region (as I explained in today's
Bigger picture time. As they say, the easy part is now done. Off support, we expected a rally back to 4300+. And, it seems to have happened quite quickly. Now, this is going to get tougher.
Yes, I am expecting a pullback. I am still not sure if that pullback will begin from
I know everyone wants to get the absolute lower price for a trade when they have a plan. But it is not often that you are able to grab the absolute lowest price to the penny. For this reason, we scale in and out of positions. So, when you are making decisions on your
#silver
EWT's
@LynAldenContact
presented at the Virtual
@MoneyShow
this week analyzing $SPX valuations based on multiple methods. View the recording of Lyn's presentation: "Is The S&P 500 In A Bubble?"
We hit the 222 target in $IWM . . . and, yes, it still can extend just north of the 225 region in the 1.382 extension region. But, it is now due for a 4th wave pullback. 213 region is now the .382 support for green wave (iv).
Posted earlier to our members: "However you want to look at this - whether we need one more lower low or not - the MACD is more oversold on the 60-minute $SPX than it has been in a long time. And, since we do not have a clear 5 wave decline off the highs, I am assuming we are
#Silver
is playing out rather well. As long as we hold this support box, the next time we take out those recent highs and move through the box will likely put us into the 3rd wave of wave i of 3. And, of course, if we break the support, it opens the door to the dreaded lower
This decline structure in ES (Emini S&P 500) has been following the script almost perfectly for some time. So, as long as we do not see a break out through the resistance box, I am looking for a lower low in wave (v) of 5.
Of course, should we break out through that resistance
In her latest “Where Fundamentals Meet Technicals” series for our Stock Waves service at EWT,
@LynAldenContact
looks at an energy stock and a Chinese stock, which also do a good job of representing their sectors in her view.
Clearly, the next step for $SPX is to take out the pivot. Once we get through the pivot the ideal target for wave (iii) is the 100 extension in the 5220SPX region, and the pivot box will then become support for wave (iv).
Bigger picture in $SPX: While we have broken below the uptrend channels, and the positive divergence has broken, we are still over 5091SPX - for now - and the MACD is still within its support region for this uptrend. So, again, it highlights how important it is for us to see a
I have made it no secret that I am expecting a long term bear market as we look towards the 2nd half of this decade, which can potentially last well into the 2030's.
But, the question that still remains unanswered is if it has already begun, and if we are setting up for a market
Where Is The Market Heading For The Rest Of 2021? Join
@LynAldenContact
and myself tomorrow as we discuss where U.S. equity indices, precious metals, energy stocks and more are headed for the rest of 2021 and beyond. Register here:
ES is continuing to extend, but it really does not change the overall view. I think this is likely the (a) wave start to the bigger wave 4 pullback. So, once we do get a bottom to wave 3, I am still expecting a 4-5 to complete the c-wave of the (a) wave.
Due to the manner in which
#Silver
futures (SI) reacted right at the top of resistance, I would have to assume that the probability for the yellow count has now increased. Therefore, we would need to break out over today's high to make that a significantly lower likelihood.
Big picture time again. We are approaching the MAIN resistance now between 4375-4401 $SPX. This is the main resistance which must be overcome to suggest that the green count is about to go to the trash heap. Of course, I need to a further move through 4551SPX to invalidate it.
No surprises in
#silver
yet. But, if we take out yesterday's high, it could mark a bottom. Again, I need to see us getting through 24.30 still . . assuming we do not get a lower low. For now, lower low remains the expectation.
It would seem that people do not want to hear that their banks have any issues. This tells me that most market participants are still quite oblivious to the issues we see in the bank balance sheets or are simply choosing to ignore them. Therefore, it seems that there are very few
From yest's "Market Update": As I outlined our expectation last week and over the weekend, we have now reached our next resistance region in the 4540-4560 $SPX region. And, I would reasonably expect a pullback from here. However ...
With $IWM looking like 5 waves down off today's high, I am seeing the yellow path taking the lead here. If we see a corrective bounce today then we are looking for a drop to complete a 4th wave flat.
$DXY finally closing in on my 105-106 target for this b-wave, despite it taking the scenic route. And, impulsive drop below 103 signals that the c-wave down is in progress.
Folks, I am keeping a close eye on the $IWM now. This structure really looks like a (b) wave triangle. While I am yet sure if the e-wave is done, I would certainly prefer one more lower low before it is completed. And, as long as we remain below the 181/182 resistance, that is
Is that all the b-wave bounce we get in $SPX? I don't think it is likely, but it is certainly possible. A sustained break down below yesterday's low would increase that potential. But, it just seems to0 small and to0 shallow for it to be all of the b-wave. (From EWT room
The $DXY has still not broken down micro support outlined by the red line on the 21 minute chart. This still leaves the door open for an extension towards 106. But, for those focused on the bigger picture, we should be starting the c-wave down in the not too distant future.
On 2/27 Lyn Alden Schwartzer wrote in her weekly "Where Fundamentals Meet Technicals" column that high valuations supported the technical view that the correction should go a lot deeper. See article...then add our Stock Waves service at EWT to follow Lyn:
From earlier today on $SPX: If the (b) wave done in shallow fashion? Maybe. Still not a lot of solid structure to work with just yet. But, as long as this continues to look corrective, it supports the bottom being in place.
#Silver
$SI hit the 1.00 extension down . . . now it is a question if all bounces hold the pivot resistance . . . for if we take it out in impulsive fashion, that tells me we are getting that higher high in wave 5 of i. Key point over the next 24 hours.
Bigger picture I think we are in a b-wave rally in a larger degree 4th wave which still has lower downside targets to attain. On the micro count, my primary expectation is a drop below 2600 $SPX for a [b] wave pullback within this b-wave rally.
Delighted to announce that Carolyn Boroden (aka FibQueen) will be joining our ElliottWaveTrader analyst team! She will be providing charts and videos on U.S. equity indices, metals and stocks based on her Fibonacci time & price analysis
As long as we remain below 2755 in the Emini S&P 500 (ES), I am expecting this rally to set up the decline in the c-wave of the green (b) wave on the 5-min chart. Though still expecting to reach the 2820 $SPX region after that (see 60-min chart).
Here is a cleaned up version. If the (a) wave continues to push higher, I will have to adjust the target/support box for (b). We need a sustained break down below 4340/45 $SPX for an initial signal that the [a] wave has indeed topped.
If you follow mainstream financial media, you have probably noticed that most of them are saying that the liquidity crisis in the U.S. banking system has ended and is unlikely to repeat. In fact, Jerome Powell just said that "banks are generally well capitalized and highly liquid
This 4th wave should take at least several more wks, even potentially til May. But since our larger degree target for this pullback is 2424-2539 $SPX, I'd be strongly looking to buy stocks I want to ride in rally to 3000+ once our cash index target is hit
$SPX has to break down below 2575/80 support to suggest it's in (b) wave pullback in larger b wave up-move (see 60-min chart). Should see another rally into spring before completing rally off Dec lows.
EWT crypto analyst Ryan Wilday writes (from last night): "
#Bitcoin
has solidly moved into my previous red count which is now black. And, the new red count is a more bullish alternative....With a sustained break over $42K, it is clear that Bitcoin is at least in my previous red
As we came into 2020, my primary expectation was for the stock market to top out, and provide us with a c-wave decline towards the 2200 $SPX region. Let's take a look at how our expectations played out and where we're headed next:
#elliottwave
EWT senior analyst Mike Golembesky on the $SPX/ES: "We are trading flat this morning but consolidating overnight. So I think it is likely that we will continue to push higher today, and as long as we can hold over the 5230 level on the SPX I will continue to look higher. We
On Nov 13, our metals analysts added long Wave Setups in gold $GC and silver $SI futures.
@ZacMannes
noted that GC, which was trading at $1939 at the time after retracing in a b wave off its October high, "ideally should hold now as all of b," which in fact it did. Gold
This from EWT senior analyst Mike Golembesky: "ES - I am moving resistance down to the 4992-5003 zone. As long as we remain under that zone the near-term pressure remains down. Otherwise, there is no change to the count."
$SPX today confirmed the start of a larger pullback we've been expecting, after just days ago striking within pennies of the ideal target I outlined over the last few weeks in the 3234 region.
#elliottwave
You should ALWAYS focus your efforts on the primary trend, and ONLY trade counter-trend when you have a low risk set up in place. This brings me to where we now reside in the $SPX -- view article:
#elliottwave
EWT's Rida Morwa writes: "We are starting to see conditions that indicate a recession might be near. What has been unclear is what the catalyst will be. The economy is getting precarious, valuations of large-cap companies are excessive, the burden of Fed rate hikes is starting
Due to the break of the pivot yesterday, the market has left us in a very complicated posture. I am going to try to explain the potentials so that you can understand the difficulties.
#SentimentSpeaks
... Many do not view a very long-term bear market as a possibility, but
#ElliottWave
analysis suggests that an upcoming
#bearmarket
can last between 7 and 20 years.
I've been harping all week about how important the 3115 $SPX support is. Until we actually see a sustained break of that important .618 extension -- off of which the market bounced today -- the market retains potential to rally much higher in coming weeks
EWT members were alerted to this yesterday: "I want to caution you that if this set up triggers over the coming day or two, we could very well see a 2-3% down day once we break down below yesterday’s low."
Let’s put this market into appropriate context: For the last two and a half months, we have been playing ping pong within the same region as we bounce between 2820 and 3000 on the $SPX...
Late morning on Thursday, we wrote: "Just stay on your toes, as once this downside completes, assuming this is indeed an ending diagonal for this 5th wave, we should see a very strong reversal which can take us back towards the ellipse overhead.” See $SPX chart at the time and
EWT senior crypto analyst Ryan Wilday
@rwilday
writes: "
#Bitcoin
has gone sideways for four months, causing many to wonder if the bull market is over. While no one can predict the future, so far this action is a run-of-the-mill bullish consolidation that provides the launch pad
From Monday's MarketUpdate: "I have added pivots to the chart, as well as a support on the SPX chart between 3875-3915...As long as we now hold over support, and then break out through the pivot, we have the potential to continue higher towards 4150+..."
For months, I have been looking for the $DXY to take us up to the 99/100 region to complete this corrective [b] wave rally. And, we may finally be on our way to striking that top.
To say that I feel blessed truly does not express my deepest feelings of gratitude at this time as we now celebrate our 12th anniversary at Elliottwavetrader....
The
#bondmarket
is finally bottoming out over the coming months and should begin a major rally into 2023, as we discuss in our latest
#SentimentSpeaks
article ...