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@Annatar_I

2 years

To give an example of the power of differential fertility, in 1950 Iraq had 5.7m people vs 103m in Russia, 1:18 ratio. 260k births vs 2.9m, 1:11 ratio, in 2022 Iraq had 1.34m births to 1.31m in Russia. In a single lifetime, 72 years Iraq has gone from 1/11 as many births to more.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

The UN 2024 pop proj. are clearly going to be wrong, they have Thailand at 591k births in '23, it had 518k, Colombia at 705k, it had 511k, Mexico at 2.038m, it had 1.7m - 1.8m, in most countries UN est. of fertility surpass reality, UN simply ignored last 5 years of TFR data.

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@Annatar_I

3 months

Notable how both Spain (1988) & Italy (1984) fell below a TFR of 1.5 permanently prior to Japan (1995), yet Japan for decades was the country focused on for low TFR, Italy went below 1.5 a decade earlier but not as many stories about its population issues until post 2010.

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@Annatar_I

7 months

Is it a coincidence that the 3 large countries in the EU with lowest TFR, Spain (1.13), Poland (1.15) & Italy (1.21) are all former catholic countries that secularized rapidly, I think it is plausible there is some relationship between these factors.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

It’s interesting how Christianity is declining faster in Anglo countries than Pew thought. Pew projection from 2015: % Christian in UK 2010: 64%, 2050: 45% 2021 census: 46% Canada 2010: 69%, 2050: 60% 2021 census: 53% Australia 2010: 67%, 2050: 47% 2021 census: 44%

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@Annatar_I

24 days

Most important demo. news of the yr is beginning of TFR decline in the DRC with TFR being 5.5 in 2023-24 down from 6.2 in 2017-18 because of what it implies about TFR decline in neighbouring countries. Uganda TFR being 4.5 in 2024 vs 5 in 2018-19 also fits in with this pattern.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

One reason political elites tend not to care about low TFR is because pop decline occurs last in big metro areas where they generally live. With low TFR, it’s rural areas that undergo pop decline first, exacerbated by migration to larger towns and cities as well.

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@Annatar_I

5 months

In 2022, White British births in E & W dropped below 60% for first time, were at 59%, decline since 2007 has been linear: 2007: 70% 2012: 67% 2017: 63% 2022: 59% White British births are on track to be minority by mid 2030's in England & Wales, across UK as whole by late 2030's.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Bulgaria TFR data for 2023 came out, 1.81, the highest in EU. What is notable is BG has one of the highest % of 25-34 year olds living with parents. A decade ago, there used to be an inverse correlation, weaker now, Italy & Finland have almost the same TFR for example.

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@Annatar_I

9 months

One thing in my view that histories of decline of European power post ww2 miss is how much is a result of smaller pop share. Europe had 22% of world pop in 1950, today 9% with 4.8% of global births. If Europe had 1.76 billion people today, would be far more influential.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

Interesting factoid is world TFR excluding Africa is just 1.7 rounded to nearest 0.05, by my est the exact figure is likely 1.73 as of 2022. If a country has a TFR above 1.7, than it is above the global TFR average excluding Africa, shows how low TFR is outside Africa generally.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

UN projection for 2100 for big eastern European countries in 2022 vs 2024. Russia: 112m > 126m Poland: 23m > 19m Ukraine: 20m > 15m These proj. are likely to be wrong as all long term proj. tend to be, in particular UN likely overest. pop level in all 3 countries in 2100.

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@Annatar_I

3 months

Differential TFR can lead to huge shifts in a single generation of childbearing. In 1990, 24m births in China vs 27m in Africa, almost equal taking into account higher child mortality in Africa. Just 33 yrs later, births in Africa are 5x China. 9m vs 46m.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

Looks like Spain will stop being the country with the lowest TFR out of all the large nations in Europe, Poland may be slightly below it. Interesting there isn’t more discussion of why Poland has the lowest TFR in Europe, countries like Italy & Spain still get focused on.

Birth Gauge

@BirthGauge

2 months

The new monthly birth update is out!

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@Annatar_I

11 months

Poland TFR was 1.26 in '22, on track for 1.15 in '23, lowest in its history and among the lowest in EU, will mean large pop decline post 2030, yet new PM doesn't seem to care at all. PL is one of those countries with very low TFR yet has a govt who isn't that concerned about it

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@Annatar_I

3 months

Ukr birth data 1H 2024 vs (1H 2023) 87,655 births (96,755) -9.4% Would mean 170k births if decline sustained through ‘24. Almost down to level of Netherlands. With 28m people, means CBR of 6.1/1000, similar level to Italy. TFR around 1.2 by my est.

Data distributor

Демографическая динамика на Украине в I полугодии 2024 к аналогичному периоду 2023 года Число рождений: спад с 96,755 до 87,655 детей (-6.2%); Число смертей: спад на 2,7% до 250,972; Естественная...

t.me

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@Annatar_I

2 years

In terms of an assessment of Gorbachev, it can be be said he was one of the worst leaders of the 20th century. He oversaw the complete disintegration and elimination of his state and unlike Hitler etc he did not even lose a war but instead stood back and let his country disappear

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Largest upward revisions for 2100 pop in 2024 UN Revision vs 2022 among more populous countries. Afghanistan: 111m > 130m Yemen: 74m > 110m Uzbekistan: 51m > 74m Changes are rational in light of countries halting TFR decline over past few years. TFR could resume anytime though

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@Annatar_I

2 months

Many people say Poland is an example of a successful country economically etc, but it is on track to have the lowest TFR among big EU countries this yr at 1.1, can a country's model be successful if it has the lowest TFR in its region.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Next UN pop revision should be released on July 11, considering TFR declines in China & Americas over past few years, peak of world pop is likely to be under 10B now, I think it peaks at around 9.8B in 2070’s.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

It's notable how long demographic facts that are not true appear to linger, many perceive France as a country with high TFR by EU standards, TFR of women born in FR proper was around 1.45 last year, births are down 1.9% so far this year, 1.45 is hardly a high TFR by any standard.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

Argentina's TFR decline over 2015-2022 matches almost exactly Russia's in 1987-1994. Russian TFR went from 2.22 in 1987 to 1.39 in 1994, 37% decline in 7 years. Argentina from 2.24 in 2015 to 1.36 in 2022, 39% decline.

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Another large scale example is Pakistan Europe, in 1950, 37m in modern day pakistan vs 550m in Europe, 1:15 ratio, last year Europe likely had 6.5m births vs 6.2m in Pakistan, likely Pakistan overtakes Europe in births in next few years.

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@Annatar_I

7 months

US 2022 final birth data, TFR (2021 TFR), all single races are non hispanic. US: 1.657 (1.664) (-0.4%) White: 1.568 (1.599) (-1.9%) Black: 1.639 (1.675) (-2.1%) Asian: 1.353 (1.352) (+0.1%) Hispanic: 1.97 (1.899) (+3.7%)

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@Annatar_I

9 months

RU demographic data for 2023, possible to assess impact of war, births down 3.1% to 1.265m, implied TFR down to 1.41 from 1.42, not much of an impact. Deaths down to 1.76m, implies life expectancy of 74. Infant mortality rate down to 4.2/1000 from 4.5/1000.

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Few people thought in 1950 that W. Pakistan with 37m people could end up with more people than Europe which had 550m one day but it looks quite plausible that might happen later this century. differential fertility which is an outcome of modernity is an extremely powerful force.

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@Annatar_I

28 days

There has been a growing difference in TFR between Ultra Orthodox Jewish women vs other Jewish women in Israel since mid 2010's, Ultra Orthodox TFR was 6.54 in 2015-17, 6.38 in 2020-2022. All other Jewish women went from 2.73 to 2.46. Ultra Orthodox TFR advantage is rising.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

The funny thing about this tweet is England has low life expectancy relative to income within Europe. Spanish are even poorer than English and live 3 years longer. If you plotted Spain on this graph, you would get Spanish living in poverty living as long as top 10% Americans.

John Burn-Murdoch

@jburnmurdoch

2 years

NEW: I’m not sure people fully appreciate how dire the US life expectancy / mortality situation has got. My column: And some utterly damning charts. 1) at *every* point on the income distribution, Americans live shorter lives than the English.

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Russia 2021 census results on ethnicity, among those who chose an ethnicity, share of ethnic Russians went from 80.9% in 2010 to 80.8% in 2022. Combined Russian, Belarusian & Ukrainian share went from 82.7% to 81.8%.

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@Annatar_I

1 month

An idea put forth often is undergoing rapid income growth would raise TFR, this is one reason put forth for why TFR rose in US post ww2. Well in EU we can test that idea, Poland has had fastest GDP growth of big EU states since 2000, will have lowest TFR at 1.1 among big nations.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Attributing the dissolution of the USSR to ideology or economics rather than the fact it was a multi ethnic state and like many multi ethnic states in the 20th C, it collapsed, 40 nations in 1900 > 200 in 2000 has led to decades of poor decision making & analysis in America.

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@Annatar_I

6 months

Fertility seems to be falling for 90's cohorts in metropolitan France, here is fertility by age 30, year of birth: 1973: 1.12 1983: 1.10 1993: 0.89 No change from '73-'83, big drop in '93 cohort, decline more severe if you move to younger cohorts, CCF for 90's cohorts may be 1.8.

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@Annatar_I

7 months

Quite plausible that Thailand will become the most populous country to go below a TFR of 1, Korea has 51m, Thailand 66m, had TFR of 1.04 last year, births down 10% in first 2 months.

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@Annatar_I

6 months

Notable how little Christian share of pop of West Asia fell from 1400-1900, and how it fell so heavily in 20th cent. emigration played a part but I think the emergence of a TFR differential was important, TFR seems to have declined among Christians before it did among Muslims.

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@Annatar_I

5 months

To give an idea of how much demographic change can occur in just over a century, this was how many of speakers of each group were enumerated in 1897 census. Latvian: 1.436m Estonian: 1.003m Uzbek: 726,000 The relative size of these groups is very different today of course.

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@Annatar_I

7 months

Interesting how rise in childlessness & growth of 3rd order & higher births have perfectly offset each other in RU. 1970 cohort: 7.7% childless, 12.5% 3rd order+, CCF = 1.6 1990 cohort: 20.8% childless, 21% 3rd order+, CCF = 1.62 1990 cohort is proj with data through to 2020.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

UN also continues assumption of TFR rising in all low TFR countries for which there is zero evidence, their pop figures make no sense, Iran's pop was revised from 89.4m in mid '23 to 91m, actual pop was 85m, same is true with many other countries. Egypt was revised to 115m etc.

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@Annatar_I

7 months

@FistedFoucault Europe transitioned to low fertility even when mortality was very high because they embraced liberal ideas like women's education and secularism very early. When the UK had the infant mortality Afghanistan does today, UK TFR was already 2 vs 5.4 in Afghanistan today.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

Interesting how much higher % of pop in metros >1m US has vs Europe, is measure of concentration of pop in big urban areas. US: 57% UK: 28% Russia: 27% Germany: 25% France: 23% For UK, FR & RU biggest single metro area accounts for 50% - 70% of total pop in >1m metro areas.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

The net impact globally by my estimation is Christian share of world pop is 28% now, Islam is next at 26%, Christianity will be overtaken in the 2030’s by Islam and its future is African. Democratic Republic of Congo is on verge of having more Christian births than all of Europe

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@Annatar_I

24 days

Beginning & acceleration of TFR decline in large sub Saharan African countries is important due to what it implies about future world pop growth, my est. of world pop was peaking at 9.8B, possible it only gets to 9.5B if TFR begins to fall rapidly in large African nations.

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@Annatar_I

3 years

Births in China down to 10.6m in 2021 vs 12m in 2020, 11.7% decline, my estimate for Chinese TFR is 1.15 for 2021.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

In these countries, Christian share in early 2020’s is already at or below where Pew thought it would be by 2050. Christianity is declining faster in Europe as well, Poland was supposed to be 87% Christian by 2050, is already at 72%. Latin America is also showing decline now.

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@Annatar_I

25 days

One outcome of rapid TFR decline in LatAm is Christianity will be even more African centric. As this century progressed, Christianity was on course to become heavily dominated by African nations, with rapid TFR declines in LatAm, Christianity will be even more based in Africa.

Anatoly Karlin 🧲💯

@powerfultakes

26 days

The case of East Asia is well known, but Latam TFR decline no less dramatic this past decade: * Argentina 2.25 to 1.25 * Mexico 2.11 to 1.45 * Colombia 1.94 to 1.21 * Chile 1.78 to 0.88. I expect to see this 2 to 1 transition in India and parts of MENA in the next decade.

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@Annatar_I

1 month

Decline of Mormon TFR shows up here, whites in Utah might soon be below whites in NJ in TFR.

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@ratavulIurE

1 month

@EurocentricTuga I got something similar a few days ago. New York may overtake Texas (big drop in NHW births in 2024) and New Jersey Utah this year.

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@Annatar_I

3 years

@Peter_Nimitz In Kursk, German forces committed 900,000 personnel on average and lost 50,000 killed or missing over 50 days of combat, averaging 1000 per day or 1.1 per 1000 men engaged per day. Armenia had 30,000 men engaged, 4,000 dead, 44 days, loss rate of 3 per 1000 men per day.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

A decade ago, there were countless articles about how countries needed to copy Nordic system, how Nordic countries were effective at combining parenting with work for women and so having higher TFR. Finlands TFR this year likely same as Italy, all nordic countries have collapsed.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

How fast can demographic change be, from early 5th century to early 6th century, 100 year period, share of Anglo Saxon dna in English population rose from 0% to 25%. From 1951 - 2021, 70 year period share of white British in England went from 100% to 74%, 26% drop in 70 years.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

To give an idea of just how old countries like Italy have gotten, on 1 jan 2023 there were 395,000 Italians under the age of 1, there were 413,000 aged 84. Italy has more people that are 84 years old than it does under 1, we have never seen societies like this.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Impact of ultra orthodox Jews is clear in NY now, share of NHW births was 48% in '10, up to 50% in '22, even as they have gone from 54% > 50% nationally. Despite being perceived as very diverse due to NYC, NY state is about to surpass the national average in share of NHW births.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Czechia TFR was 1.83 in 2021, 1.45 in 2023 and heading for 1.3 based off Q1 results, biggest decline over past 3 years of any country, however CZ TFR was always going to fall, has low 3rd order and higher births, high TFR was unsustainable.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

Interesting that Russia now has a lower infant mortality rate, lower homicide rate and lower suicide rate than the US, in 2021, IMR was 4.5/1000 in Russia vs 5.4/1000 in US, homicide rate was 4/100,000 vs 6.9/100,000 and suicide rate was 10.7/100,000 vs 14/100,000.

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@Annatar_I

26 days

One thing that Iran is similar to Russia in isn't its political system despite claims of an axis of autocracy but that its GDP has a larger than usual industrial sector. Iran consumes 80% more energy than the UK, makes 5x as much steel but has a much lower GDP overall for example

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@Annatar_I

2 years

For all the talk about Russia being a diverse country or a multi ethnic one, main ethnic group share of pop is higher than in UK or many Western European countries, 50 years ago Russia was more diverse then say the UK but Russia is more homogenous now than much of W. Europe.

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@Annatar_I

11 months

@nonebusinesshey One point I would raise is Hispanic net migration hence the Hispanic pop size are being underestimated, so Hispanic TFR in reality is lower. I think its likely by the end of the decade, white TFR overtakes black TFR, all the pro natalist religious groups in US are heavily white

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@Annatar_I

7 months

It seems remarkable to some that a small country like Britain was so dominant in say 1910, but in terms of share of world pop, it wasn't that low, in 1910 British Isles had 2.5% of world pop, like a country having 200m today, large base off which to be a dominant power.

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@Annatar_I

3 months

If you subtract natural growth from change in pop between each census, this is the est. of net migration per annum you get for US, I consider these figures more accurate than official migration numbers. 1980-1990: 0.53m 1990-2000: 1.56m 2000-2010: 1.03m 2010-2020: 1.03m

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@Annatar_I

29 days

Not clear in long run anti natalist programs result in TFR lower than without them. Chinese TFR is what one would expect in East Asia, absent one child policy it would be same. Iran had aggressive anti natalism yet TFR is around level of Turkey, where one would expect it to be.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

Some in Ukraine say it will become like Israel in the future, well in births its already there. In 1H of 2024, 86,485 births in Israel vs 87,655 in Ukraine, trend of 1H points towards Israel surpassing Ukraine in births as a whole for 2024.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

After rural areas, small towns begin depopulating, than small cities, only when the rest of the country is running out of internal migrants to provide do the large metro areas begin to decline, so pop decline is only noticed in the big metros long after it has begun nationally.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

This year marks 35th anniversary of end of communism in Poland, what has changed, in 1989 560k births with TFR of 2.1, this year 260k births with a TFR of 1.15, births & TFR half of '89 levels. From 1946-1990 pop grew from 24m to 38m, one of the fastest growth rates in Europe

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@Annatar_I

2 months

Globally the flow of migration is generally from poorer to richer countries but within countries, often it is from richer areas to poorer regions, NY GDP per capita of $114k, CA $102k, IL $88k all lose migrants to TN $75k, FL $72k, SC $61k,

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@Annatar_I

4 months

For example, UN projects births in Poland will not fall below 250k until 2047, will be in 255 - 260k range this year and might go below 250k next year to give idea of how wrong forecast will be.

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@Annatar_I

23 days

One of the main myths in US politics is CA was a conservative state that became liberal due to migration, Dems have controlled state legislature since late 50’s, was first state to legalise no fault divorce, post ww2, CA has always been one of the most liberal states.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

Uzbekistan is on track to become the first country in history to exceed a TFR of 3.5 this year after dropping below it. A lot of demographic theories about TFR decline have been proven wrong because of countries like Uzbekistan, Pakistan, Afghanistan etc

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Data on pregnancies in Ukraine, 68k in Feb 24 - Oct 6 vs 147k same period ‘21, suggests 110-115k births next year, even with emigration, would mean Ukraine would have lowest crude birth rate of any nation in recorded history.

"Жизнь пробивается сквозь смерть": в Украине уровень рождаемости выше количества смертей от войны

С 24 февраля по 6 октября в Украине забеременело всего 68 277 женщин. Это более чем в два раза меньше, чем в прошлом году.

zn.ua

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Chinese birth data for '22 out, 9.56m births, suggests TFR of 1.05, geopolitically, means US up to 38% of Chinese births, highest figure ever, India at 2.4x Chinese births now, 23m vs 9.6m, globally, China at 7.4% of all births vs 17.6% of world pop.

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@Annatar_I

3 months

One of the most intriguing aspects of modernity is vicarious nationalism, there are nationalists from England who go to be blown up in Ukraine for Ukr nationalism but they won’t fight and die for their own people, the same is true in other EU countries, it’s an interesting thing.

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@Annatar_I

3 years

@akarlin0 Russia has plenty of equipment and firepower, both vehicles and artillery shells but needs more infantry, Belarusian army will be of use in this regard.

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@Annatar_I

8 months

S. Korea increased its share of world GDP continuously from 1960-2020, now it is growing slower than world GDP for first time in 60 years, GDP per capita convergence is over, share of world pop declining so its share of world GDP will decline going forward decade after decade.

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@Annatar_I

9 months

Histories of European decline focus to much on ideological change post ww2 and not enough on demographic change, if UK had same share of world pop today as it did in 1950 for example, it would have 160 million people.

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@Annatar_I

9 days

East Asian culture is often seen as causing very low TFR, I think we have to consider Catholicism as another variable that causes very low TFR, outside East Asian culture influenced nations, lowest TFR’s are in catholic or former catholic nations such as Poland, Spain & Chile.

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@Annatar_I

5 years

High mortality in Italy currently maybe partially due to older Italians having poorer lung function.

Andreas B

@AndreasShrugged

5 years

1) Why does #COVID19 appear to be so lethal in #Italy (CFR close to 4)? Pre-existing conditions are likely to make things worse and I often read comments like "many smokers". Can data back this up? Below are peak expiratory flow (PEF) measurements of people aged 60-80 by country:

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@Annatar_I

1 year

@BirthGauge More evidence that when catholic countries secularise their TFR collapses. With Brazil down to 1.5 and Mexico down to 1.8 and falling, not long before US TFR is above the average for the Americas for the first time since the 19th century.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

People often say Deng was smarter than Mao, but Mao was smart enough not to buy into Malthusian nonsense, Mao believed no matter how many people China had, it could manage them as the Chinese people were innovative and smart, Deng believed in the false idea of overpopulation.

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@Annatar_I

5 months

White British will become a minority around 40 years after that point, so by the 2070's. Native ethnic group's share of births declining is a common feature across all large European countries except Russia, will make for interesting societies and politics going forward.

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@Annatar_I

11 months

A country like Argentina that has seen a huge TFR decline since 2015 is South Korea, was at 1.24 in 2015, headed for 0.72 this year, could be lower depending on how final months turn out, 42% decline, from 1.24 to 0.72 over 8 years. Has to be among fastest in world since 2015.

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@Annatar_I

1 year

To give an idea of how much demographics have shifted in Europe since 80's, in '83, 40 years ago there were 721k births in Poland vs 721k in UK & 748k in France. 807k in Ukraine vs 828k in DE. Today, UK & FR 670- 690k, DE 740k, Poland 300k, Ukraine under 200k, was at 270k in '21

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@Annatar_I

10 months

One thing war in Ukr has shown is how many “right wingers” in Europe are just low IQ types that you can easily convince to hate anyone you want. A point on which @powerfultakes is 100% correct. Many of these may one day serve as cannon fodder for the elites they claim to oppose.

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@Annatar_I

8 months

Jilin had 23m pop & 88k births, Niger is est to have 27m pop & 1.22m births, 1.2x the pop, 14x the births. TFR differentials existed pre 1800 to some extent, but large differentials are recent phenomena, TFR differentials for first time in human history are playing a big role.

Mark

@Mark57758864153

8 months

@BirthGauge China, Jilin Province (pop. 23,394,100) number of births 2023 - 88,400 (-13.58%) 2022 - 102,300 Crude Birth Rate - 3.77 (4.5 in South Korea in 2023)

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@Annatar_I

2 years

@BirthGauge Czechia births 2022: 2021: 111.8k 2022: 99.8k (-10.7%) TFR 2021: 1.83 2022: 1.66

Population change - year 2022 | Rychlé informace

The population of the Czech Republic increased from 10.517 to 10.533 million in 2022. The entire increase, almost 17 thousand, was due to the positive net migration. Compared to 2021, there were...

csu.gov.cz

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@Annatar_I

9 months

Estonia has TFR of 1.3, faces massive pop decline in coming years, yet is cutting child benefits. In order to spend more on getting ready to fight Russia. In low TFR country facing big pop decline, cutting child benefits for mil. spending makes no sense.

Estonian government finishes bill to cut back family benefits

The Estonian government has approved draft legislation to amend the country's family benefits regulation and will be sending it to the Riigikogu.

news.err.ee

Shashank Joshi

@shashj

9 months

I wrote on the planned Baltic Defence Line. “Estonian officials estimate their stretch of the border will need around 600 concrete bunkers, each 35 square metres, each capable of holding around ten soldiers and taking a hit from a large shell.”

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@Annatar_I

2 months

My own view is the low TFR of Poland like Italy and Spain is related to Catholicism and what happens in catholic countries when they secularise, Latin America in the future may resemble the catholic countries of Europe like Poland that have secularised in fertility terms.

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@Annatar_I

1 month

There hasn't been the deluge of migration from MENA into Europe which those like Steyn predicted resulting in Eurabia, people don't move in huge numbers unless there is a collapse in their country. What has occurred though is the ratio of births has risen in MENA vs Europe.

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@Annatar_I

1 month

Nations decline & increase in relative power over time, there are some ethnic groups that are disappearing from the face of the earth, not in the middle east though but in Europe, ethnic Bulgarians are down 29% since '88. Ethnic Germans have had deaths > births for over 50 years.

Tacos and Airplanes

@blob_watcher

1 month

The entire Islamic world is in a terminal death spiral, with Arabs and Iranians at the core. I don't expect these Islamic ethnic groups like Arabs and Iranians to literally disappear like Native Americans, but they're going to become so powerless that they might as well be.

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@Annatar_I

2 years

The amount of excess deaths caused by LE decline post 1991 is something that should be highlighted as well, there were around 13m more deaths in Russia in 1991-2010 then there would have been had LE stayed at 1980’s levels which it recovered to by 2010.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

Not surprising Macrons party did poorly, Macron has been one of the worst presidents in french history, gdp per capita growth averaged 0.5% 2017-2023, lowest in post ww2 era, debt to gdp 98% to 111%, highest in history, TFR from 1.86 to 1.64, 12% decline to lowest level post ww1.

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@Annatar_I

3 months

Some people try to compare the war in Ukr to the US in Iraq or Afghanistan, in demographic terms, there is no comparison, births were 6-7% higher in the 3rd yr of war in both compared to last pre war yr, Ukraine on track to be -38% vs 2021.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

Scotland is often seen as being very empty & Netherlands as dense but in 1900, pop density of Neth. at 122 was only 2x of Scotland at 58, taking into account arable land, was even, overall pop was similar, 4.5m in Scotland vs 5.1m in Netherlands.

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@Annatar_I

3 years

@Peter_Nimitz Armenian losses in terms of killed and missing were 3x as severe relative to amount of men committed and length of time as German losses at Kursk.

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@Annatar_I

2 years

@Fabian72380516 Nigeria could overtake China soon in births

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Add in excess deaths in Ukraine as well and Gorbachev’s failure resulted in 18m excess deaths in Russia and Ukraine in 20 years following USSR collapse, 2x as many people as died in famines and executions under Stalin.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

One aspect of UN forecasting which is most problematic is the idea of TFR rising in all low TFR regions, for example, in 2012 rev. Europe was proj. to have a TFR of 1.71 in 2025-2030, up from 1.54 in 2005-10. The reality, Europe's TFR is 1.4 and unlikely to rise this decade.

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@Annatar_I

4 months

People often attack the Qinq as being a bad dynasty but by the standard of success of pre industrial empires (pop growth & territorial expansion) it was one of the most successful in history, Qinq doubled pop in 18th c. from 150m to 300m and massively expanded territorial extent.

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@Annatar_I

8 months

Excluding countries at war, Moldova has held the world record for population decline since mid 2010's, population was 2.826m on 1 Jan 2016, declined to 2.513m by 1 Jan 2023, 11.1% decline over 7 years.

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@Annatar_I

2 years

Interesting how close both Russia & Germany have gotten to overtaking Japan in GDP, $4.8T for both vs $5.4T for Japan, both may overtake it this decade, story of Japan's relative decline

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@Annatar_I

3 months

Impossible to know if Ukraine will still exist as a nation in the future but the UN forecast of Ukraine having 15m by 2100 is based off 207k births this year, rising to 242k by 2026 and declining slightly post '26. Ukraine pop will be far smaller than 15m in 2100 absent migration

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@Annatar_I

6 months

@devarbol The post 2015 global fertility decline will be seen as one of the major events of the century quite possibly.

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@Annatar_I

2 months

@BirthGauge If Brazil and Mexico both go under 1.4 which is possible in the next few years, TFR in Latin America will go below Europe’s for the first time ever as medium sized Latin American countries are increasingly going far below 1.4

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@Annatar_I

1 year

20 years since counter jihad movement, mainly from the UK took off, let us look at its achievements. Christian %, England & Wales: 2001: 72% 2021: 46% Islam %, England & Wales: 2001: 3.1% 2021: 6.7% Christian/Muslim multiple 2001: 23x 2021: 7x Among 0-14 year olds: 3.2x

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