Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦 @AndrewNoymer Twitter profile

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

5 years

Duck tape your underpants. 2020 is going to be a wild ride. #coronavirus #CoronavirusOutbreak

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

I've said this before but it bears repeating: In the 19th century when they sorted out that cholera is caused by waterborne germs, they didn't put London on boil-water advice. They gave Londoners clean(er) water in their home. Whether those water customers wanted it or not. ...

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Congrats, Great Barrington Declaration folks. You won. August 11th, 2022, you won.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

How do we explain all weird respiratory-disease (non-covid) epidemiology this fall (N hemisphere)? Covid fucks up your immune system. That's how.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

The covid situation in the USA is gonna be another shitshow in fall 2022 and winter 2022–23.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

cont'd Improving water quality at the source was an end-run around relying on each household to boil water. Improving indoor air quality will be the end-run around nonuse of masks. If we choose it.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Talked to someone today who has covid; their second case in two months. Sure, keep comparing the infection fatality rate of flu and covid. Nobody, fucking nobody, gets influenza twice in two months.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

In this thread, I will outline what CDC is doing to get a lid on the monkeypox outbreak:

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

covid reinfections are infrequent cov reinfections are infrequent cov fections are infrequent cov fe are infrequent cov fe infrequent cov fe frequent cov fe fre covfefe

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

This is really misinformation.

Vice President Kamala Harris

@VP

2 years

One shot, once a year—that’s all most people will need to stay protected from COVID year-long. Make a plan to get your shot at .

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

We need to speak more candidly about the covid vaccine effectiveness. This is the dashboard from UC, Irvine. To work here or be a student, requires being vaxxed AND boosted. Ostensibly, all of these — 408 active cases, of which 64 incident yesterday — are vaxxed and boosted.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

"The urgency of permanently giving up 2.5 years of life expectancy" just doesn't have the same ring to it.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

When I hear people talking about preparing for the "next pandemic". I look around and see a new covid variant (BA.2.86)... bringing uncertainty in THIS pandemic. And we're doing fuckall. "Preparing for the 'next pandemic'." Friends, please.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

To my fellow public health professionals: Shrugging and accepting a 1-year reduction in life expectancy at age 65 is normally something only tobacco-industry shills do... [ e(65) for my fellow demography nerds ]

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

You just can't make up this stuff. "Why is everyone suddenly getting sick?" Why indeed.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

The new-generation (non-replicating) smallpox vaccine — with presumptive cross-protection against other poxviruses — is a two-dose regimen. The first dose should be given to healthcare workers in the USA. Starting today. With initial emphasis on ED staff.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

This isn't 2020. All these fuck ups cannot be chalked up to "it's a new virus". No more free testing and vaccination? Unforced errors. This is on you: POTUS, Congress, CDC, HHS, and @WHCOVIDResponse .

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

My campus does not require masks for covid but will require students and employees who have not received the 2022–23 annual flu shot... to mask. Beginning 1 December 2022 and going thru the end of the flu season; date TBD. 🤔

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

I am weary of statutory regulation of "medical misinformation". The idea that 𝘏𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘤𝘰𝘣𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘱𝘺𝘭𝘰𝘳𝘪 causes stomach ulcer was once a crazy idea; now it's accepted fact.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

At the population level, there will be FOUR TYPES of #COVID19 #mortality : 1) Direct-direct 2) Direct-indirect 3) Indirect 4) Competing risks In this short thread, I will discuss the four.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

CDC: we're not tracking breaktrhu infections. also CDC: breakthru infections are exceedingly rare.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Cosmologists have confirmed today in a paper published in Science magazine that the lockdowns have accelerated the heat death of the universe by 100 trillion years.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

The pandemic is dead. Long live the endemic!

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

Yes, I still mask when I go to the grocery store. And, let me tell you... there are more people like me. There are dozens of us. Dozens, I tell ya!

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

630,000 deaths in the USA, in 18 months. This ain't no fucking flu.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

KN-95 masks with earloops are a huge part of the reason why we're going to conclude that "masks don't work".

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Y'all know that Winter 2022–23 is going to be hell, right? #covid

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

Let's drop the "Omicron is mild" narrative. Please and thank you. Any variant that spreads as fast as we're seeing with Omicron is, ipso facto, very worrisome.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Haven't moved on from the covid pandemic, because SARS2 hasn't moved on from humans. Split hairs about if it's still pandemic, or endemic; that aspect bores me. If we don't do source mitigation (clean indoor air...), we'll shave 1–2 yrs off period life expectancy, for decades.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Twenty four hours after the propaganda blitz that covid boosters are annual now... I'm still shocked and dismayed. It really shows what a 𝙨𝙞𝙩𝙪𝙖𝙩𝙞𝙤𝙣 we're in... 1/3

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Which "public health experts"? 👀

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

Because of herd immunity, influenza just gets milder and milder and milder, year after year. Right? Wrong.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Planes and tranes but not black-tie events.

Ashish K. Jha, MD, MPH

@AshishKJha46

2 years

Folks are wondering -- should I be wearing a mask when getting on a plane or in a train or mass transit? Answer? Yup. A high quality mask protects you and those around you. That's why the CDC recommends it But, there is another issue that's very important Short thread (1 of 2)

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

For those of you who keep asking, "Where are the deaths?" — we got your deaths right here: 142,064 Is that not enough? What the fuck is the matter with you? Sociopaths.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

I'm legit mystified by all these "will covid become endemic?" pieces. In April 2021, it seems like a strange hook. Covid is endemic, that ship sailed a long time ago.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

Can we please stop talking about handwashing as a covid prevention strategy? Thank you. Looking at you, CDC.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

We have zero evidence that the current boosters are going to "hold" for 12 months, and telegraphing that we're on an annual schedule now seems like a bureaucratic, not scientific, approach... 2/3

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

How about boxes of N95s, delivered monthly to the doorstep of every household in the USA?

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Sept. 22: Bivalent booster Oct. 22: Covid positive This is same booster that my employer is requiring of all employees and students, in lieu of a comprehensive approach to covid. (To wit, PCR testing shuts down on 10/28; info dashboard taken down on 9/22; CO2 >1,000 ppm, etc.)

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

I don't want to harsh anyone's mellow. But, you know, friends, if the vaccinated can still transmit: Then "vaccinated people can go maskless indoors" is actually about the worst-possible advice. Oh hai, @CDCgov .

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

5 years

Why does Italy have more #COVID deaths than the Republic of Korea? Partly due to #demography :

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

This also raises questions about the severity of the sanctions (...firing) levied against a relatively small number of hold-outs, IMHO. It's a big deal to fire someone. Doing so for such a leaky vaccine is not without its issues. I am vaxxed and boosted, myself; not abt me.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

"equivalent of a booster" only when you condition on survivorship and lack of long-covid. This is what happens when we have clinical medical people doing population health.

Bob Wachter

@Bob_Wachter

2 years

a) I've been considering a Covid infection to be the equivalent of a booster in terms of protection against reinfection & severe disease (hospitalization/death). These study results indicate that it is at least that good, maybe even a bit better... (2/7)

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

"Some people are not testing positive until four or five days after they start showing symptoms of COVID-19." @ronlin and @LukeMMoney have the story. ❦ Friends, this is what happens when we go all-in on rapid tests at the expense of PCR. cc: @alexmeshkin

Californians working while sick with COVID-19, fooled by mild symptoms

Health experts are noting that more people who are experiencing very mild illness are working anyway — exacerbating the coronavirus transmission risk.

www.latimes.com

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

"If it's so deadly, why aren't deaths increasing?" — because they are. Graph is for USA. Yellow box is last 2 weeks.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

The dorms at your university, 12 weeks hence.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Arguing that excess deaths come from "lockdowns" not covid, is pretty tenuous for 2021 and ridiculous for 2022, for the United States.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

@CDCDirector If you "only had mild symptoms", why did you take Paxlovid?

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

I'm seeing so much about how the protests might spread SARS-CoV-2. Friends, CROWDED RESTAURANTS spread it more,

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

But I'm not in favor of jabbing people every 8 weeks, either. Nor every 10. Nor ... That's not sustainable + is the sign of a failed vaccine. So, why not every 52 weeks? I just think being nimble is the name of the game. The current plan is not nimble, it's bureaucratic. 3/3

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

@redpriestown Yup.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Paxlovid, we barely knew ya!

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

So these cases are occurring in what's for all intents and purposes a 100% vaxxed/boosted group; as close to it as can be attained in the *real* *world*. Yet all these infections. We need to be more honest about this.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

@CarolineYLChen @TRyanGregory You are correct, the jargon "vaccine-derived polio" is confusing. There is such a thing as getting polio "~from~" a vaccine — and it has its own name, VAPP, vaccine-associated paralyic polio — but it's like 100,000,000× less common than vaccine-derived polio.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

One blunder of the 117th United States Congress was not investigating the origins of SARS2 with enough enthusiasm or energy. Whoever wins on Tuesday, I hope the 118th will take it more seriously.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

"prevent infection", don't make me laugh. I mean, reduce severity, okay.

Benjy Renton

@bhrenton

2 years

@maartoos Dr. Walensky has noted that CDC will evaluate these data for interval and no recommendations are currently available at this time. "The reason to get a booster now is to prevent infection now."

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Mid-2022; some "SciComm" ppl still haven't grokked that 𝐚𝐢𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐫𝐧𝐞 — as understood by general public — is any pathogen that you get by breathing. Let's please shelve arbitrary droplet/aerosol diameter cutoffs +agree not to say "it's not airborne" for respiratory pathogens.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

Breakthru infections aren't "very rare". Friends, you know this. They're not even rare. Everybody has a breaktrhu in their own personal network. Calling it like it is b/c CDC isn't. ❦ Thankfully, breaktrhu infections *are*, overwhelmingly, mild.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

Covid zero. That ship has sailed.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Reprehensible sophistry from @DrLeanaWen : "But are these Americans dying 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 covid or 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 covid?" This has been a troll talking point from day one. 1/3

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

If one person could go back in time to Jan 2020 to warn about covid, knowing everything we know now, I doubt it would make a damn difference. Honestly, even if we all knew then what we all think we know now, I don't think it would make a diff. Lines are drawn, camps are formed.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

Ending the pandemic by choking data down to a trickle. 🫠

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

The FAA still won't allow airlines to fly without a complete [per specifications] crew. Massive flight cancellations in three, two, ...

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Per @Worldometers dashboard, USA had 851,898 covid deaths on 31 Dec 2021. 1,051,946 today; we've exceeded 200k covid deaths in calendar year 2022, to date. If we want covid to kill fewer people than heart attack (about 100,000/yr), we have to shoot for 2023. We have work to do.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

The Black Death in 14th-century Europe went on for years. "T cells".

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

The first and last thing anyone wants to hear from @CDCgov on the Tuskegee syphilis study is contrition. Not this.

Mandy K. Cohen, MD, MPH

@CDCDirector

2 years

This year marks the 50th anniversary of the end of the Tuskegee syphilis study. Tomorrow, I will be joined by colleagues & #PublicHealth leaders as we honor the 623 African American men, their suffering & sacrifice, and our commitment to ethical research and practice.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

I walked past a gym tonight. It's open. SoCal hospitals are crushed, but 🤷🏻‍♂️. Don't @ me, "we're so locked-down" crybabies. You know who you are.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

It's libelous that he implies that @KatherineEban & @jeffykao are not "real journalists". Believe me, the LAST thing Scripps wants is for more of the world's best investigative journalists to train their sights on the lab leak hypothesis.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Would someone in the press please ask @AshishKJha46 (or @ashish_jha46 ) why there are no OTC cold meds on the shelves?

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

Let's talk influenza and COVID mortality (again!). THREAD. People keep bringing this up so I'd like to put this to bed once and for all (I hope). It is often said there are 60,000 flu deaths in the United States. e.g.:

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

We've had 46 (and counting) covid deaths in Orange County, Calif., in June. If that were influenza (in June), local public health folks would be on high alert. Is your point that we've just baked lower life expectancy into the cake, now, should take the L and move on?

Meaghan Kall

@kallmemeg

2 years

@farid__jalali If you choose to give a doctors opinion on how severe a variant is, that’s on you. People can accept it at face value or not. It doesn’t mean you are correct and you should be ready to be challenged on that without presenting evidence to support.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Y'all still think rapid antigen tests are going to save us? 🤔

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Virologists: we don't always talk epidemiology, but when we do, 𝘓𝘢𝘯𝘤𝘦𝘵 is a reputable journal. Lancet Covid Commission: Covid could be a lab leak. Virologists: 𝘊𝘦𝘭𝘭, 𝘚𝘤𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘤𝘦, 𝘕𝘢𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘦.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Someone said smth like: "immunosuppression is something we see post-measles, but it's clear; whereas with covid there is no evidence". ❦ Friendly reminder, measles known since antiquity, while post-measles immune suppression relatively recently understood. SARS2: 36 months.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

If lab leak is such a loony conspiracy theory, why do so many people invest so much energy pushing back against it? ❦ By analogue: I don't spend any time pushing against the idea that there is nanoscale microchip technology in the vaccines.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Can someone please post a link to a scientific paper that shows that annual infection-as-boosting is what formerly kept RSV in an unstable equilibrium of mild cases for most people >1 year old?

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

It's back to school time. You may have heard about monkeypox. If your child develops an unusual rash, seek prompt medical diagnosis. You may have heard MPX is a "MSM sexually transmitted disease" (men who have sex w/ men). It's not. Have rashes checked out without judgement.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

As far as I can tell the evidence still favors protection against hospitalization. I'm not complaining about that! But nobody should have a reasonable expectation that vaccines are protecting against infection, per se. Not in the face of the current variants.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

I don't think "immunity debt" is causing all these cases of RSV, but people will argue about it until fall 2023 / winter 2023–24. If there is another surge of RSV then — even after this — then it's not immunity debt. Until then, people will believe what they wanna believe.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

This is the third winter in a row in which people want to know if... YES THERE WILL BE A COVID SURGE.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

So, to clarify for some of you. Masking is a great way to avoid exposure to SARS2. KN-95 masks don't fit most people well, and I frown upon their substitution for N-95s with around-the-head loops.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Cautiously proactive ≠ panic.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

@maosbot Masks work, but they're bad for capitalism. They are a visible reminder that you just might be safer alone than out and about doing whatever it is you're doing (which sooner or later means money changing hands). Masking must be stopped therefore.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

As an academic specializing in mortality studies, I assure you that we don't tabulate deaths by voter registration. As a public health researcher, I find dunking on one political party b/c of its dead adherents (even if true, cf. above) to be utterly tasteless.People are people.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

What's the sound (four weeks from now) of thousands of "this is a new gay STI" tweets being deleted? #monkeypox

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

"covid reinfections are rare" is going to age like milk.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Don't bring a virologist to an epidemiology fight.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Anecdotally: the clinical severity of breakthru covid cases in my social network has been increasing of late. This fuels my anxiety about fall 2022 and winter 2022–23. We need boosters that have less epitopic distance to the circulating strains, and we need them now.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Ashish just repeated the 5 day CDC advice. I don't know why I bother. Don't watch this presser, you'll want to gouge your ears out.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

What do things look like when the burden of proof, instead of the weight of assumed validity, falls on the zoonotic theory of COVID emergence? It’s not unreasonable to say, “Prove the lab leak”...It is equally reasonable to say “Prove the zoonosis theory.”

Four things I want to know about the origin of COVID - Washington Examiner

A recent article in the academic journal Science has attracted attention for its detailed modeling of the initial post-emergence of the virus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease it causes, COVID-19. The...

www.washingtonexaminer.com

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

"At the current rate of deterioration, the EMS system may collapse unless emergency directives are implemented now." 👀

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

What are rapid antigen tests good FOR? Well, what are they good AT? Extremely LOW FALSE POSITIVE rate. If RAT is positive, stay home and isolate, end of. If RAT is negative, I'm sorry to say that you're in low information territory. We should be using RATs for their + not –.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Contours of post-covid immune dysregulation (PCID) remain to be seen, incl if concerns are disproportionate. But the comparisons below are simply bizarre. PCID is not (never has been) abt wholesale changes in epidemics of other diseases. h/t @fitterhappierAJ & @farid__jalali

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

@alexmeshkin Thank you for this 🧵. I am also anxious about the fall, winter. "We couldn't have known" is wearing thin. How can you follow "we have the tools" with "we couldn't have known". Altho I suppose those 🤡 have no shame...

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

4 years

I keep hearing that social distancing is from "an abundance of caution". Horsecrap. Extreme social distancing is *only* thing that we can do right now to save our hospitals from being crushed like those in Italy & Spain. "abundance of caution" is a legal CYA term. STAY SAFE!

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Holy shit. 🗾 🇯🇵 🧨💥

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

2 years

Life comes at you fast.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

3 years

This is really harmful rhetoric. It sets up a false hope. Also, polio is not eradicated. Smallpox is the only human disease ever to have been eradicated.

Robert Reich

@RBReich

3 years

We eradicated polio. There is absolutely no reason we can’t all get vaccinated and eradicate COVID. Saving lives never had to be political.

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Andrew Noymer 🇺🇦

@AndrewNoymer

1 year

The last time the USA had fewer than 55,000 deaths per week was 2019.

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