FPL Nik @AnalystNik11 Twitter profile | Pikagi

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FPL Nik

@AnalystNik11

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Trying to help #FPL managers one data point at a time.

Joined June 2020

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

⚽️Best 4.5m DEF pairs to rotate over the first 19 GWs!⚽️ Shown below are the 10 best pair of teams to rotate 4.5m DEFs over the first half of the season, sorted by weighted average clean sheets. Clean sheet predictions are taken from my team strength model! #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

I simulated the 22/23 Premier League Season 10,000 times. Here are the results.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

🥅 Best 4.5m GK Pairs to rotate over the first 19 GWs! 🥅 Shown below are the 10 best pair of teams to rotate 4.5m GKs over the first half of the season, sorted by number of clean sheets. Clean sheet predictions are taken from my team strength model! #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

This is what the average table looks like after 10,000 runs. This is sorted by points, not average finish.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

©️ GW1-8 xPts/EV captaincy matrix! ©️ Below are the top 10 predicted points scorers over the first 8 GWs, data from my xPts/EV model! #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

13 days

FPL's FDR is pretty good, but if I were to create a difficulty rating system, where the most difficult fixture=5 and the easiest=1, here's how it would look! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

🖥️ After 20 solver runs using @fpl_nathan 's solver on 0.85 decay, max 5 FT, custom xMins and data from my EV model, here are the players that show up most often in a GW1 team once you add noise to xPts/EV! ⚽️ #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Better late than never! Top 30 players over the next 8 GWs based off my points model!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

I simulated the 2022/23 PL season 10,000 times based on the xG results from each match! Below are several tables showing the results from the simulation, starting with the % of times each team finished in each position in the league!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

I simulated the 2022 FIFA World Cup 10,000 times! Here is a thread of the results!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

⚽️8 GW Premium Player xPts!⚽️ All data taken from my EV model, penalty takers, finishing skill, fixture difficulty all taken into account. Do you notice anything? Is it too early to say that Haaland 🇳🇴🤖 is nowhere near optimal? #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

This chart assumes places 1-4 qualify for the Champions League, 5-6 qualify for the Europa League, and 7th qualifies for the Conference League.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

GW7 Goal & Clean Sheet Predictions! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

I simulated the upcoming 23/24 Premier League season 10,000 times! Here are the results:

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

I simulated the upcoming 21/22 PL season 10,000 times on Python to help #FPL managers get a sense of the strength of each team. Here are the average results:

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

🟢📊FPL Nik's GW4 Thread!📊🟢 GW4 💪 Team Strengths 🥅 Predicted Clean Sheet % ⚽️ Predicted Goals ©️ Captaincy xPts Next 8 GWs 🥅 Predicted Clean Sheet % ⚽️ Predicted Goals 📈 Top 30 Players by xPts #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

Please note that the although the 9m combo of Brentford and Palace yields the most clean sheets (5.52), the 9.5m combo of Raya and a non playing 4.0 GK yields 8.54 clean sheets.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

⚽️Predicted Goals & Clean Sheets over the first 8 GWs! ⚽️ Data taken from my team strength model #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW1-8 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Sorted by a weighted average that places more emphasis on the nearest GWs.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Simply the best way to pick #FPL players

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Updated predicted # of matches until the end of the season. European + cup odds gathered from fivethirtyeight + bookies. Below is more info about GW33 + GW37.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

These are the team strengths I used heading into GW1. For a detailed explanation on how I calculated these numbers and how I simulated the season 10,000 times, please follow the thread below...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW1-8 Goals and Clean Sheet Predictions for #FPL ! Numbers derived from my team strength model which uses goal, xG and market value data to predict future outcomes.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

9 months

14 straight green arrows. 2m to 4k OR. Last red arrow was in October 2023. What a magical and lucky run it has been. My EV model has finally chosen a season to get positive variance in. Wouldn't be possible without fbref underlying data, fplreview xMins and FPL Nathan's solver.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

I simulated the 2022/23 PL season 10,000 times based on the xG results from each match! Below are 10 questions about the results of the simulation compared to the actual results of the season. Answers as well as a detailed analysis of the simulation will be posted tomorrow...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW1-8 captaincy xPts! Spent the last 3 days producing reasonable xMins. The xPts numbers are calculated in one Excel workbook which has over 360,000 cells with formulas. More than happy to defend my FPL model!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

I simulated the upcoming 23/24 PL season 10,000 times. I also created a Pokémon style trading card for each simulation. Would you be interested in having one?

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

...then each predicted goals number was assigned an actual goal integer based off a poisson distribution. Then I just stored all of the data and ran it 10,000 times with a macro. Thanks @theFPLkiwi for introducing me to macros in Excel.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Team Strengths heading into GW1 for #FPL ! Numbers show how many goals each team is expected to score or concede compared to an "average" Premier League team. GW1-8 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions will be posted tomorrow!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

The current #1 #FPL manager in Argentina, "Luis Scola", has multiple FPL team accounts! The only league they are in consists of other NBA players, however 12 of the 14 NBA players are currently ranked in the top 1 million...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

I generated team strengths for GW1 by taking each team's last 38 league matches and weighting the data by recency. Once I have npxG and npG data, I apply predicted penalties to get GW1 team strengths displayed in the table above...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Struggling to pick your perfect #FPL midfield? Here are the top midfield options over the next 8 GWs according to my xPts model! Historical underlying data from fbref is weighted for recency. xMins taken from FPLReview w a slight adjustment. xPenTaker factored into xG/90!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 months

⚽️Predicted Goals & Clean Sheets over GWs 2-9!⚽️ Data taken from my team strength model #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW1-8 Captaincy Matrix! Numbers derived from my FPL model which uses underlying stats from fbref, and xMins (with a slight adjustment) from fplreview!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 months

⚽️ GW1 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! ⚽️ #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

If you want to WC in GW28 and maximize points ONLY over the next 3 GWs, here's a short thread: Using my points model (which relies on @fplreview 's xMins and uses @fbref data), and @fpl_nathan 's Solver, here is the ideal WC 28 team with a budget of 100M and current player prices:

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Love seeing all the drafts on my timeline with 0 City defenders... Only a matter of time before fplreview is live and everyone owns Ederson + Ake

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW2 #FPL Team Strengths! Numbers show how many goals each team is expected to score or concede compared to an "average" Premier League team.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Thank you so much for the insane support (especially the Palace fans)! For those that are new here, for the upcoming FPL season I will be posting points predictions, goal predictions, FDRs, team of the week and much more! So stay tuned for the ride!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

GW17 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Thank you for participating in this quiz! The answers will be posted tomorrow along with charts and results from the 10,000 simulations. If you liked the quiz and want to see the results of the simulation, make sure to give this a like and follow me for more #PL content!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Predicted # of matches until the end of the season following Chelsea v Norwich announcement and European results and draws! Calculated using bookie + fivethirtyeight odds of advancing to next competition. Note that numbers will change following FA Cup matches.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Predicted Clean Sheets for GWs 3-10 for #FPL !

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

#FPL GW1 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Numbers taken from my FPL model which derives team strengths by using a mix of goal, xG and market value data.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

Here is the same chart, but it only shows any players that are within 1 EV of the best captaincy choice that week. Hopefully it gives you a clearer picture of who are the best captain options every week!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

GW33 & GW37 will be an odd mix of blanks, singles and doubles. Therefore I thought it would be useful to present the odds of each occurring in these two potentially tricky GWs.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW9 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW4 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

⚽️ Predicted Final Premier League Table 2024/25! ⚽️ Using xG and goal data from the last 38 league matches and current club market values, here is how I currently expect the 24/25 season to unfold! #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

What sort of numbers should I expect when FPL players play OOP? The table below shows the average npxG, xA and npxGI per 90 of different positions listed on @fbref . This table is compromised of individual match data from the last 4 seasons of Europe's top 5 leagues.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

...then since team strengths change over the course of a season, I had the team strengths change by a random number within a normal distribution that has a standard deviation of 0.031. Then I calculated the predicted goals for each fixture and...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW10 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Predictions made using my team strength model which uses a mix of goal, xG and club value data! #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

🔹Ran through solver 🔹8 GW horizon 🔹0.85 decay 🔹Set and forget (no booked transfers) 🔹Custom xMins 🔹xPts/EV from my model 🔹0.0 ITB

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW7-14 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Sorted by a weighted average that places more emphasis on the nearest GWs. Numbers calculated through my team strength model which takes G & xG data from the past 38 league matches and places more emphasis on recent results.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

4 months

I simulated the #euro2024 tournament 10,000 times! Here are each team's chances of reaching each stage of the tournament, including winning it all!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 months

📈Best upcoming FPL fixtures sorted by difficulty! 📉 Chart on the left shows the goals multiplier, so for example, in GW3 Everton are expected to score 1.12x more goals than average because they play Bournemouth at home. Chart on right shows the FPL FDR. #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW2 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW8 Predicted Team Strengths + Predicted End of Season Table!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

@FPL_Brandon @fpl_nathan The optimal GW1 team gives you this huge at the back draft where the plan is to roll all FTs until GW6 when you move Isak to Solanke. The idea is Arsenal defenders are benched in GWs 2, 4 and 5 where Liverpool defenders and Munoz play. Andreas with good GW2-6 fixtures.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW4 #FPL Team Strengths! Strengths measure how many goals and points each team should get against an "average" Premier League team!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

7 days

📊Here is how the big 8 teams rank in terms of upcoming fixture difficulty!📊 The bottom table shows my FDR of the upcoming 12 GW fixtures. The top table shows a rolling 8 GW moving average of the difficulty of the fixtures, where a value of 3 means an average set of fixtures.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Predicted Team Strengths heading into GW2! Numbers display how many goals scored, conceded and points I would expect each team to accumulate against an "average" PL team.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW5-12 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Sorted by a weighted average that places more emphasis on the nearest GWs. Numbers calculated through my team strength model which takes G & xG data from the past 38 league matches and places more emphasis on recent results.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Offensive + Defensive Fixture Strengths & Predicted Goals + Clean Sheets for GW11 - GW18! Larger images and short explanation are included below! #FPLCommunity #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

🟢📊 FPL Nik's GW5 Thread! 📊🟢 GW5 💪 Team Strengths 🥅 Predicted Clean Sheet % ⚽️ Predicted Goals ©️ Captaincy xPts Next 8 GWs 🥅 Predicted Clean Sheet % ⚽️ Predicted Goals ©️ Captaincy xPts Matrix 📈 Top 45 Players by xPts #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW3 #FPL Team Strengths! Aston Villa and Brentford the biggest improvers and Fulham and Everton have the biggest downgrade.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW1 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

GW 3-10 attacking + defensive fixture strengths & predicted goals for + clean sheet data! Using a 38 GW rolling average of goals and expected goals, with weights of .75 and .25, respectively. Larger pics are in the thread below! Data provided by @fbref . #FPLCommunity #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

Thanks for all the support and new follows! ❤️ GW1-8 EV/xPts captaincy matrix will be posted tonight, and best 4.5m Defenders to rotate over the first half of the season will be posted later in the week!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

🥅 Best 4.5m GK Pairs to rotate over the first 19 GWs! 🥅 Shown below are the 10 best pair of teams to rotate 4.5m GKs over the first half of the season, sorted by number of clean sheets. Clean sheet predictions are taken from my team strength model! #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

📈 Top 30 Players by xPts

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

GW4-11 Predicted Goals & Clean Sheets! Numbers taken from my team strength model which uses a mixture of goal, xG and club value data over the last 38 league matches.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Predicted Team Strengths for GW4! Numbers display how many goals scored, conceded and points I would expect each team to accumulate against an "average" PL team.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Attacking and defensive fixture strengths + predicted goals for and clean sheets through GW 1-8, sorted by the first 4 GWs! Using a weight of 30% goals and 70% expected goals. Larger table pics are posted below. Data provided by @fbref . #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

@ManOnPod_Dronuk A full season simulation would pop up anytime I reached the excel sheet. So I used a macro to just have excel refresh the sheet 10,000 times and store the data in a separate sheet.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 months

@FPLScofield So initially this would go against my instincts, only because npxG and xA has such a big influence on which defenders rotate best, and to ignore that would suck. However, seeing how well this post has done I see there is demand for more of this, so yeah I'll deffo take a look!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

GW11 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

13 days

Struggling to juggle premium #FPL players from big clubs? The below table ranks which big teams have the best upcoming fixtures. To put it simply, you want to hop on teams when they have a green set of fixtures and hop off when they have red. In depth explanation below...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

If you're still here reading, make sure to like and follow for more #PL and #FPL analysis for the upcoming season! Since you made it to the bottom of the thread I'll reward you with a GIF of a small portion of the 10,000 simulations!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Predicted Team Strengths for GW3! Numbers display how many goals scored, conceded and points I would expect each team to accumulate against an "average" PL team.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Like this post and drop a comment below with a number between 1 and 10,000 or "random" if you want to see one of the PL 23/24 simulations displayed as a Pokémon card!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Here is detailed info about GW33+37. Note both tables are rough estimates and I wouldn't take them as absolute givens. I would use these tables to complement whatever Ben Crellin says. That being said, until more news comes in, I stand by these numbers.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW5 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW4 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Offensive + Defensive Fixture Strengths & Predicted Goals + Clean Sheets for GW7 - GW14! Larger individual tables and an explanation of the numbers are posted in the thread below! #FPLCommunity #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

7 months

This is what Free Hit dreams are made of! GW29 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

29 days

⚽️Predicted Goals & Clean Sheets for GWs 5-12!⚽️ Data taken from my team strength model! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW10 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

2022 World Cup was simulated 100,000 times. Currently there are 0 perfect Round of 16 brackets. However, there are 10 brackets that have predicted all 12 teams to be in the Round of 16, just not in the correct group position. 8 of these 10 have Brazil and Portugal in RO16...

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 month

⚽️Predicted Goals & Clean Sheets for GWs 4-11!⚽️ Data taken from my team strength model #FPL #FPLcommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Offensive + Defensive Fixture Strengths & Predicted Goals + Clean Sheets for GW12 - GW19! Larger images and short explanation are included below! #FPLCommunity #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

3 years

Offensive + Defensive Fixture Strengths & Predicted Goals + Clean Sheets for GW16 - GW23! Short explanation of the numbers and tables are provided in the thread below! #FPL #FPLCommunity

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

These are the results of my analytical journey. Will continue to trust the process despite the outcome. Thanks for reading if you made it this far and I hope you have a great end to your FPL season!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW3-10 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Sorted by a weighted average that places more emphasis on the nearest GWs. Numbers calculated through my team strength model which takes G & xG data from the past 38 league matches and places more emphasis on recent results.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

9 months

🚨 GW29 Blank Probabilities! 🚨 % Blanks derived from my Premier League team strength model + team strength estimates of non-PL teams. If you have any questions about the calculations, please let me know!

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Planned tweets this week: Monday - Goals, CS, Offensive & Defensive FDR tables Tuesday - GW1 Goals, CS & Team Strength tables Wednesday - My model's points predictions Thursday - Explanation of the math behind my points model Friday - GW1 team of the week & Optimal 8 GW team

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

Haven't posted #FPL content in a while, but here is a team strength table indicating how many goals scored, conceded and points a team could get against an "average" PL team in this moment in time.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

11 months

GW13 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! #FPL

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

2 years

GW2-9 Goals & Clean Sheet Predictions! Sorted by a weighted average that places more emphasis on the nearest GWs. Numbers calculated through my team strength model which takes G & xG data from the past 38 league matches and places more emphasis on recent results.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

Predicted Goals and Clean Sheets for the first 8 GWs of #FPL ! Numbers calculated from my team strength model.

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@AnalystNik11

FPL Nik

1 year

New banner pic just dropped. Each team's position in the PL 22/23 season sorted by xPts based on xG results every #FPL GW. Sorted by xPts and not actual points because football is played on spreadsheets.

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