We find the most relevant and interesting news from the day and provide the context and analysis that others miss. Focus: Ongoing and emerging conflicts.
BREAKING: Brazil bans social media platform X.
More: A judge in Brazil has ordered the suspension of the social media platform X after its owner, Elon Musk, failed to appoint a new legal representative for the country, according to a report from Bloomberg. The situation
URGENT Kursk Front Update
1. Russian Troops Expelled: Russian sources report that their forces were driven out of the village of Sverdlikovo overnight.
2. Encircled Russian Soldiers: An unknown number of Russian soldiers are nearly encircled in Oleshnya, with escape routes
Kharkiv Axis - The Battle for Kharkiv City is effectively over.
#Ukraine
has defeated
#Russian
forces and driven them far enough away from the city that there is no longer an imminent threat to the city or its occupants. The battle lasted from February 24 - May 11.
#Severodonetsk
- In a surprise move,
#Ukraine
has reinforced the city with heavily armed troops and the
#UAF
foreign legion & counterattacked
#Russian
Forces.
#UAF
has reportedly recaptured 20% of the city & Metolkine to the E. This was first reported by pro-
#RuAF
sources.
#Kharkiv
Axis Update -
#Ukrainian
forces have counterattacked
#Russian
positions with heavy artillery, tanks and infantry and made progress after intense fighting. The towns of Rus'ka Lozova & Kutuzivka, Kharkiv Oblast have been recaptured by
#Ukraine
.
#Severodonetsk
-
#Ukrainian
troops have successfully counterattacked & removed the
#Russian
forces on the
#Bakhmut
- Lysychans'k road and have started moving supplies W on the road again. This "Road of Life" is not the only route but it is the best one the
#UAF
has right now.
URGENT: New Ukrainian Cross Border Assault in Belgorod, Russia
Ukrainian troops have launched an attack on Russian defenses near the Kolotilovka checkpoint in the Belgorod region, deploying a tank platoon supported by small assault groups. Border guards and Russian armed forces
#Kherson
Axis Update -
#Ukrainian
Forces have reclaimed the towns of Blahodatne, Kyselivka & Klapaya in the direction of
#Kherson
as
#Russian
Forces were pushed back. This advance puts
#Ukraine
within 5 miles of an assault on Kherson and pushing 🇷🇺 back over the Dnipro River.
#Kherson
-
#Ukrainian
troops have pushed
#Russian
forces back towards Kherson & captured the towns of Pravdyne, Zelenyi Hai & Oleksandrivka.
#UAF
is currently assaulting towards Kyselivka along the
#Mykolaiv
-Kherson Highway & toward Tomyna Balka. Heavy shelling continues.
#Lyman
Update - The situation around
#Lyman
is rapidly deteriorating for
#Ukrainian
troops. Today,
#Russia
captured Novoselivka to the NW and may have captured Yarova. Lyman is now surrounded on three sides with only destroyed bridges over the Donets on the 4th side.
#Popasna
-
#Ukrainian
forces have successfully counterattacked & liberated the town of Komyshuvakha after expelling
#Russian
forces from it. This advance puts
#Ukraine
4mi/6.5km away from Popasna. This will likely relieve some pressure in nearby towns that are under attack.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Ukraine
made multiple advances in the area this week, pushing back
#Russian
forces to within 5mi/9km of the
#Russia
border.
#UAF
captured/attacked wide swaths of terrain and towns in the AO with the most significant areas highlighted in blue in the map below.
#Kherson
Axis -
#Ukrainian
forces have launched a counterattack aimed at pushing
#Russian
forces back to Kherson. Russian & Ukrainian sources both confirmed that
#UAF
is attacking Pravdyne, towards Tomyna Balka and along the Mykolaiv - Kherson Highway. Artillery duels continues.
#Kherson
Axis -
#Ukrainian
troops have launched a counterattack 40 mi/65km NE of
#Kherson
City with the stated goal of destroying
#Russian
supply lines to the N.
#Ukraine
has captured Davydiv Brid & has gained ground and possibly total control in Lozove, Bilohirka & Andriivka.
#Kherson
Axis - More information is coming out regarding the
#Ukrainian
#Kherson
offensive.
#UAF
is attacking from two directions & has liberated the towns of Lozove and Bilohirka. Davydiv has likely been fully recaptured as well. Kostromka, Bruskynske & Andriivka are contested.
#Popasna
Axis -
#Ukrainian
troops have once again re-entered Toshkivka, 11mi/18km S of
#Severodonetsk
, & are actively contesting the city.
#Russian
forces are putting up stiff resistance in the town, but this is the 3rd
#UAF
counterattack that has gained a foothold in Toshkivka.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Ukraine
liberated the towns of Rubizhne, Lyptsi, Verkhnii Saltiv, Borshchova & Slobozhanske as
#Russian
forces continue to retreat.
#Russian
forces along this axis have not had the equipment or manpower to hold back
#UAF
advances and have been withdrawing N.
BREAKING: A massive Ukrainian drone attack is currently underway in Kursk, Russia. While Russian air defenses have intercepted some of the drones, explosions are being reported across the region.
Southern Axis -
#Ukrainian
forces have assaulted
#Russian
forces 10mi/16km W of Velyka Novosilka and captured the towns of Novopil' & Novodarivka.
#Russian
forces managed to muster a counterattack w/in a few hours but were repulsed by
#UAF
.
#Ukraine
now controls both villages.
#Ukraine
has begun using the
#American
supplied M777 155mm howitzer in combat. This video, taken in an undisclosed location, shows
#Ukrainian
troops firing on
#Russians
somewhere in the eastern part of the country.
A Pro-
#Russian
rally took place in
#Austria
today. During that rally some pro-
#Ukraine
protesters were removed by police.
#Russian
supporters claimed that they were provoking the crowd. Austria has registered higher levels of pro-Russian sentiment than other
#EU
countries lately.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Ukrainian
troops have bridged the Donets River in 2 locations, moved a large assault force across the river and attacked
#Russian
forces 90km NE of Kharkiv along critical
#RUAF
supply lines.
#UAF
may have seized the town of Zarichne and are still attacking NE.
#Severodonetsk
is a must capture city for
#Russia
, no matter the cost. Therefore, it is highly likely that
#Russia
will dump any remaining combat power into the city ASAP to complete the capture.
#Ukraine
likely realizes this and is merely trying to inflict max casualties.
#Kherson
Axis - The first videos are coming out from the
#Ukrainian
counteroffensive in Davydiv Brid. The extent of newly captured terrain is unclear but
#UAF
is moving heavy equipment & troops across the Inhulets River to attack
#Russian
forces in the area. Videos in next tweet.
#Severodonetsk
- The battle for the city continued today.
#Russian
forces made small gains in the E & were geolocated to the thermal power plant and along the road to it. Rumors of a general collapse of
#Ukrainian
positions are false.
#UAF
continues a fierce defense of the city.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Russian
forces have declared the start of a new offensive to attack Kharkiv city. The short term objective is to capture the
#Ukrainian
defenses in Dementiivka and Rus'ka Lozova. There is reported fighting in Prudyanka, indicating that RU has recaptured Tsupivka.
#Severodonetsk
-
#Ukrainian
troops pressed their advantage in the city today & pushed
#Russian
forces back for a second day.
#UAF
is now in control of around 50% of the city w/ the entire industrial zone to the W & several portions of the residential zone under
#Ukraine
control.
Kursk Invasion: Day 5 Thread
Russian sources have confirmed that Ukrainian troops have entered and captured the village of Plekhovo. See map produced by Russians. This advance places Ukrainian forces just 5 km (3 miles) from the last Russian supply route into Sudzha, potentially
URGENT: Second Belgorod Assault
Another group of Ukrainian troops in armored vehicles is attempting to breach the border near Prilesye. A battle is currently underway between border guards and Ukrainian forces for control of the border.
Ukraine is advancing in small groups
This counterattack is evidenced by
#NASA
FIRMS 1 day data which shows fires in Metolkine & to the NE of previous frontlines in the city. The map below indicates that fighting has dislodged
#Russian
forces from their previous gains & that
#Ukraine
has recaptured ground.
#Izyum
Axis - It is confirmed that
#Ukrainian
forces bridged the Donets River in the vicinity of Protopopivka & are operating in the forests W of Izyum. We have not seen evidence to support the Izyum City Council statement that Zavody, Spivakivka & Prydonets'ke were liberated.
#Izyum
Axis -
#Russian
troops have breached the defenses of
#Lyman
in the SE corner of the city and are now fighting street to street.
#Ukrainian
forces have been destroying bridges to slow the 🇷🇺 advance. 🇷🇺 fully captured
#Yampil
and has entered Stavky to the N of Lyman.
Russian source Two Majors on telegram: "The next 24 hours will be difficult. The enemy has at least a motorized infantry battalion on the territory, up to two thousand personnel as a second echelon, uses many drones, and skillfully uses air defense and electronic warfare
#Mariupol
Update - The battle of
#Mariupol
and the defense of
#Azovstal
is likely close to its conclusion.
#Russian
forces are now taking ground in the main plant complex, which likely means the defenders are running out of enough ammo, manpower or both to hold the plant.
#Severodonetsk
Axis -
#Ukrainian
troops have reinforced the the town of Voronove 4mi/6km SE of Severodonetsk & counterattacked
#Russian
forces that were close to capturing the town.
#UAF
has driven
#RuAF
back to the edge of the town & are close to expelling them entirely.
A short while ago, several massive explosions rocked Kurchatov in Russia’s Kursk region, close to the town’s nuclear power plant. This town is 35 miles (56km) from the fighting ongoing in Sudzha as Ukraine assaults several Russian towns along the border. The Kurchatov NPP has
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Ukraine
has pushed to the E of Kharkiv, entered the city of Staryi Saltiv and likely captured it. Confirmation still pending but once 🇺🇦 troops breached the town,
#Russian
forces have to retreat N or be trapped against the Donets river due to a destroyed bridge.
#Popasna
Update - There is a growing risk that
#Russian
forces around Popasna may be gaining momentum against
#Ukrainian
defenders in the area. Today
#Russia
captured Nova Kamyanka, Stryapivka, Volodymyrivka, Trypillya & Druzhba to the W and Troitske to the S of the city.
#Severodonetsk
-
#Ukraine
suffered a major setback to its counterattack in the last day & has been pushed back into the industrial zone in the W of the city.
#Russian
forces have advanced forward of previous lines but a blistering artillery barrage from both sides is underway.
#Izyum
Axis - Reliable sources reporting that
#Russians
are very close to encircling the town of
#Oskil
and a large number of
#Ukrainian
troops still inside the town. 🇺🇦 troops may still have a window to escape S but most nearby adjacent 🇺🇦 troops evacuated S a few days ago.
Despite the mayor of Novorossiysk’s claims that the Ukrainian naval drone attack was repelled, multiple fires are burning in the naval port. The heat signatures suggest a significant blaze or several separate fires.
#Kharkiv
Update - It appears increasingly likely that
#Russia
is slowly withdrawing all its troops W of the Donets River out of
#Ukraine
.
#Ukrainian
troops have been retaking multiple towns a day as
#Russian
troops have abandoned them. RUAF may be giving up on Kharkiv entirely.
#Severodonetsk
- An interview with an English speaking
#Australian
and
#Georgian
who are members of the
#Ukraine
Foreign Legion as they prepare for battle in Severodonetsk. They speak to a reporter before heading into battle as part of the
#UAF
counteroffensive in the city.
#Mariupol
Update - Combat is paused in
#Mariupol
#Ukraine
as civilians are evacuated by
#UnitedNations
staff. The
#Azov
Deputy Commander confirmed that 20 women and children had been evacuated from
#Azovstal
. He further requested that wounded 🇺🇦 troops be evacuated as well.
Update: Russian sources are now stating that Ukrainian troops have advanced up to 15 km with a front spanning 10-11 km. As of this evening, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have secured positions in 11 settlements, including Lyubimovka, Obukhovka, Pokrovskoe, Zeleny Shlyakh, Tolstoy
#Kharkiv
Axis - The past several days have seen significant fighting in the N of Kharkiv.
#Russian
forces captured Ternova 2 days ago (yellow on map).
#Ukrainian
troops are currently counterattacking the town.
#UAF
has captured Vesele & Male Vesele (blue on map) 15 mi/24km.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Ukrainian
troops have expelled
#Russian
forces from Ternova and have full control of the town again. This follows 16 days of fighting over the city.
#Russia
has only been pushed into the woods on the outskirts of the town and will likely attack again soon.
#Bakhmut
#Russian
&
#Ukrainian
sources report that PMC Wagner is gathering an assault force to try to capture Bakhmut soon.
#RuAF
has relied on Wagner for intense urban combat in this area including the capture of
#Popasna
.
#RuAF
were reported on the Bakhmut - Lysychans'k road.
#Mariupol
Update - Starting to see credible intel that
#Russian
forces have entered the
#Azovstal
Plant and are actively clearing it. It may take several days to clear the complex, but it doesn’t look like there is much resistance left. Here are two photos from inside.
#Rubizhne
Update -
#Russian
forces completed the capture of Rubizhne today by capturing the town of Vojevodivka and forcing the remaining
#Ukrainian
troops to withdraw from the SE corner of the city. RUAF is now in the outskirts of
#Severodonetsk
. Video confirmation in next post,
From February 24 - May 11 the city was under the constant threat of cannon artillery shelling and assaults from
#Russian
troops on the outskirts of the city. Several RUAF assaults breached the perimeter of the city, but each time they were expelled.
#Kharkiv
Axis - Confirmed that
#Ukraine
has retaken the towns of Moldova and Staryi Saltiv from
#Russia
40km E of Kharkiv city.
#Russian
forces have retreated N to avoid encirclement at the Donets River. Video confirmation for Moldova in next tweet.
Why is
#Ukraine
struggling around
#Popasna
? Part of the answer to that question has to do with available troops, supplies, casualties and exhaustion. However, one often overlooked element that is working for the
#Russian
's and against the
#Ukrainian
's, is the area's topography.
#Sumy
Update -
#Russian
troops conducted a large probing attack in Seredyna-Buda, Sumy Oblast.
#RUAF
used the N to S railroad as cover to move towards the city. Once detected, they tried to advance under machine gun and mortar fire.
#Ukrainian
border guards repelled the attack.
#Severodonetsk
-
#Ukrainian
forces continued to advance today & now control around 75-80% of the city. Despite previous reports,
#UAF
is continuing to move supplies and reinforcements into the city.
#UAF
&
#RuAF
have both suffered significant casualties in the fighting.
Newly released footage from Russia's Kursk region reveals the aftermath and intensity of the fierce battles that unfolded as Ukrainian forces advanced through the area. The scenes capture the aftermath and scale of the conflict as it swept through the town.
#Popasna
-
#Russian
troops fully captured the villages of Novozvanivka, Kalyno-Popasna & Rozivka to the S, SW and W of Popasna.
#Ukrainian
troops have struggled to hold back advances in this area lately as
#Russian
troops continue to expand their territory here.
#Kharkiv
Update -
#Ukrainian
troops have driven
#Russian
forces back to the international
#Russia
/
#Ukraine
border following the capture of Ternova NE of Kharkiv. This provides
#UAF
an opportunity to establish defenses along the border and splits RUAF into 2 pockets, E & W.
#Severodonetsk
Update - Reliable intel reporting that
#Russian
forces are fighting inside the town of Pryvillya W of
#Rubizhne
.
#Russia
may have created another pontoon bridge across the Donets River and crossed troops to assault Pryvillya. This will pressure
#Severodonetsk
.
#Izyum
axis update. Ongoing
#Ukrainian
counter-attack has pushed back
#Russian
forces to west of Borova. Front lines shifting some but not stable right now.
The NASA fire data map provides an easy to see picture of where the fighting has taken place in the Kursk region of Russia. It clearly shows that Ukraine is targeting all the way to Sudzha.
#Russian
forces have launched a flanking assault through the forest to the E of
#Rubizhne
(red circle) to cut off
#Ukrainian
troops defending the SE quarter of the city. If 🇷🇺 can capture/pressure the 1 road to
#Severodonetsk
🇺🇦 will have to withdraw from Rubizhne or be cut off.
#Lyman
Update -
#Russia
has captured the town of Drobysheve 2mi/3km NW of Lyman. Lyman is now surrounded on 3 sides with the 4th side constrained by the Donets River 3 mi/5km SW.
#Ukrainian
forces have been preparing defenses for weeks & destroying bridges to slow
#RUAF
advances.
Russian forces have released a video demonstrating the deployment and glide of a FAB-3000M54 bomb equipped with a UMPC guidance kit. Watch the roll at 00:10.
#Russian
sources have released images that reportedly show 400
#Cossacks
departing for combat in
#Ukraine
. There are supposedly already 4,000 Cossacks in 🇺🇦 with another 1,500 headed there soon.
#Severodonetsk
-
#Russian
forces have successfully gained a foothold in the city after capturing the Mir Hotel and a few streets around it. Video released by
#Chechen
fighters shows them in control of, but fighting from the MIR hotel on the N side of the city. Video in next post.
FIRMS satellite data from today confirms multiple fires in Rus'ka Lozova & Kutuzivka, which confirms that these two towns were captured by
#Ukraine
after intense combat.
#Russia
has been slowly pushed back all along this axis for the past several days.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Russia
continues to devote a significant amount of manpower & resources to try to regain control of Ternova. Today,
#RUAF
attacked
#Ukrainian
troops from the forest in the NE & from the W side of the town. RUAF gained no new ground/territory and retreated.
Kursk Invasion - August 15 Update
A Tale of Two Invasions
Ukraine continues to make significant advances in Kursk, likely capturing close to 1,000 km² of Russian territory. Pro-Ukrainian information and propaganda efforts have primarily focused on the territory gained and the
However, eventually those troops around
#Kharkiv
were pulled away from this axis for other higher priority fronts. Eventually,
#Ukraine
mounted a slow creeping counteroffensive to assault occupied towns or capture those villages abandoned by
#RUAF
.
This video shows
#Ukrainian
troops moving into an already liberated settlement of Davydiv Brid. The lack of fighting or tactical posture means the frontlines are likely far away from this position.
#UAF
has made it's way across the river in multiple locations to hit multiple towns at the same time along the Inhulets River. Following that the
#UAF
bypassed main roads & went through fields to attack Kostromka & Bruskynske on the flanks.
#Russia
is moving reinforcements here.
#Lyman
-
#Russian
forces continue to advance in Lyman and have captured over 50% of the city. Photos of
#RUAF
have been geolocated to the E, W & N of the city. It is likely that
#Ukrainian
troops are withdrawing to the SW to avoid being trapped. Lyman will likely fall soon.
It also does not preclude a Second Battle of
#Kharkiv
either, as
#Russia
appears to be settling in for a long and drawn out conflict. However, if there is a new battle for the city it will be the second one, with the victor of the first being
#Ukraine
.
Russian sources report that the 22nd Mechanized Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has fully entered the territory of the Kursk region.
Ukraine continues to advance in several directions.
#Severodonetsk
-
#Russian
troops have made significant advances in the city today.
#RUAF
has advanced beyond the city concert hall & have captured government buildings in the city center. Geolocated videos show
#RUAF
in control of at least 50% of the city. Videos in next tweet.
#Russian
leadership is undoubtedly moving troops into the area to counterattack this surprise assault by
#Ukraine
. If
#UAF
can capture
#Vovchansk
they may be able to establish a permanent bridgehead on the E side of the Donets River and use it to attack
#RUAF
to the S.
BREAKING - Gunfire Erupts Across Russia
There are now three confirmed incidents of police coming under fire deep inside Russia. Current incidents:
1. Derbent, Dagestan - Two police officers are reportedly dead. At least six other have been injured. A church and synagogue were
#Russia
then took positions 5-10km away and began to pound the
#Ukrainian
forces inside with cannon/rocket artillery. For weeks the residents of
#Kharkiv
were told to remain inside bomb shelters at all times, with many residents moving into the subway.
#Kharkiv
Axis -
#Ukraine
made several moves in Kharkiv Oblast today. 21mi/34km to the NE of Kharkiv city
#Ukrainian
troops retook territory (no villages or towns just farmland) back to the international border, thereby creating two pockets of
#Russian
forces in the region.
A fire has reportedly erupted at the
#Sakhalin
Hydro-Electric Plant in
#Sakhalin
Oblast
#Russia
. The cause of the fire is currently unknown but another fire erupted at a pharmaceutical plant in
#Kurgan
yesterday. Sakhalin is an island N of Japan and 4000 miles away from
#Ukraine
.
In some places,
#Russian
rearguard put up stiff resistance to protect supply lines and the withdrawal of other units. As more units retrograded, these rearguard units, mostly made up of Russian proxies, have also started to move N and out of
#Ukraine
.
#Lyman
Update -
#Russia
began its ground assault on Lyman today that was prefaced with a rocket barrage filmed by
@NeilPHauer
.
#RUAF
is attacking from three directions and has entered the SE corner of the town.
#Ukrainian
troops are putting up stiff resistance to the attack.
#Ixyum
Axis Update -
#Russian
forces captured the town Velyka Komyshuvakha,
#Kharkiv
Oblast after several days of fighting.
#Ukrainian
troops retreated W and NW to Hrushuvakha & Petrivs'ke.
#Russia
has now expanded its perimeter from
#Izyum
to around 14 miles or 22km.
A UAV films its own demise. A UAV flying somewhere over the
#Donbas
is shot down by an air-defense missile, possibly a MANPADS (Man-Portable Air-Defense System). The top right of the footage shows the missile leave the ground and accelerate towards the aircraft until it hits.
Russian sources are now claiming that this map represents the approximate situation on the ground in Kursk region of Russia. Ukrainian troops are likely closer to Sudzha than indicated on this map.
This does not mean that the Battle for
#Kharkiv
Oblast is over.
#Russian
forces are likely to hold/defend areas to the E of the Donets River to protect supply lines to
#Izyum
& other defensible areas, but they won't be in a position to threaten the city.
Slovyansk Axis -
#Russian
forces have continued to advance down the SW bank of the Donets River and have captured Dohen’ke, Pasika, Bohorodychne in the last four days. Fighting was taking place in Dolyna 12 hours ago and rumors suggest that it was captured as well.
#Izyum
Axis -
#Ukraine
still controls the town of Dovhen'ke 13mi/20km S of Izyum. Conflicting reports suggest that either: a)
#Russia
never took the town but reported it as captured. b)
#Ukraine
has recently counterattacked and retaken the town.