Zenolytics @AMeshkati Twitter profile

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

8 months

Miners are going to compact months worth of gains into 4-5 trading days. Key is to realize that everything up until that point is a shakeout in preparation.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Consolidation that has developed in the SPX is setting up for a move to 3500-3600 in the near-term. Market remains on an accelerated schedule. Looking for this target by mid-August.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

We just had a successful retest of the June lows. Unfortunately, most investors won't grasp this until we are above SPX 4000 in the next few weeks.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Mass induced bearish psychosis is the most powerful ally this market has in the months ahead. Every rally will be considered a selling opportunity until new all-time highs. Lots of fuel for surprise upside. 4500 SPX should arrive quickly.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

My greatest joy over the next several months will be watching the markets move up consistently as a vast majority keep chanting the "but the Fed" mantra like they are on a spiritual retreat in the Himalayas.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

I'm very bullish into the end of Oct after what I saw yesterday & today. A crash UP over the next couple of wks. Past two days of trading was the market preparing. Mind blowing volatility incoming.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

3 months

They only shake the tree hard when there is something good at the top.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

And let's not forget, this move is occurring right after we saw a once in 20 year pessimism spike on the equity put/call this week. Nobody is positioned for this. In fact, quite the contrary. Markets won't accommodate.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

7 months

Targeting SPX 5350-5400 by week of Apr 29-May 3.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 month

A 25bp cut Wednesday creates a dull edge to this topping pattern with considerable downside into November. A 50bp cut Wednesday creates a sharp edge to this topping pattern with even more considerable downside into November. The die has been cast.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

VIX with its first close today below 200 day ma since the start of virus crisis in Feb. Type of technical event that brings a wave of institutional risk on buyers next week, as they just lost a key pillar of their risk off argument.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

There is an extremely low probability of investors being able the buy the S&P anywhere below 5000 once the Fed stops raising rates. Markets rally into Fed pauses/recessions. Those waiting for the VIX to explode will watch it explode when the mkt falls from 5500 to 4000 next yr.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

11 months

Increasing evidence that the shock and awe stage of this bull run is imminent. Once 4610 falls, 4850-4900 is the target. Expect new highs no later than mid-January.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

9 months

Current pullback will appear as a blip a week from now. If you are looking for a top, it won't happen on earnings and the Fed. 18000 NDX is a magnet. Coming soon.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

9 months

Markets aren't going to pullback until they see the CPI, which will more than likely be a bullish catalyst, turning attention towards NVDA earnings on the 21st. If you're looking for a sustainable top, as it seems so many are (eye off the ball, PTSD) Feb 22-27 are your dates.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

The way this market keeps sucking bulls in on elementary level reversals as it makes progress downward with little fear translates into a market with nefarious intentions over the next several weeks. Extreme caution required.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

9 months

Seeing so many who were once bullish flip bear in recent weeks because they can't shake the 2022-2023 mindset. This is what steep corrections do to investor psychology. A warped mindset that doesn't grasp secular bull market cycles, their stages and how sentiment is the hook.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 months

The most consequential speech Powell has given this year is tomorrow and the SPX decides to park itself right at the most consequential technical point of the current bull run. Couldn't script it any better. Tomorrow is guaranteed to be explosive.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

6 years

Formula for having top track record in the hedge fund world over past 5 yrs: 1 Realize individuals enjoy streaming movies 2 Forget about asset allocation of any kind 3 Take naps all day to avoid being shaken out 4 Severe inebriation remainder of day to forget about valuation

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

You couldn't draw up a better consolidation near recent highs after the June rally. Given how, when and where the markets are consolidating, the next leg up is going to make all other rallies we have experienced in 2023 to date seem like kindergarten recess.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

As is typical at the beginning of every major uptrend in growth, semiconductors are seeing significant accumulation. The mkt is doing a good job masking this as evidenced by the fact that investors are focusing on everything else but this single most relevant indicator of a turn

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Fed will be finished soon. Breakdown in rates confirming the end game. Recession remains a ways off. Entering the sweet spot for risk. Very few are properly allocated for what is coming. Illiquid environment amplifies everything. Upside for equities tremendous.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

$NFLX $UAL are just the first glimpse of how wrong analysts and investors got Q3 earnings. This will be a recurring theme throughout Q3 earnings season, as well as the catalyst for a historic Q4 rally that investors will remain bearish on the entire way up.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

S&P hasn't budged since May. All the meanwhile, excesses in the mkt have been rinsed, while bears have had everything from threat of nukes, soaring rates & a hostile Fed as their ally. Same spot as May. An absolutely epic failure by bears while mkt prepares to roll them up.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Other than the timing of the vertical ascent that lies ahead, there are no changes to the bull thesis. We have been rangebound since May with multiple attempts at baiting both bulls & bears. This is a complicated bottom that will surprise on the upside in the months ahead.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

This one month long consolidation is nothing more than the major market averages coiling to take out multiple significant areas of resistance in an extremely short period of time. Upside velocity in the weeks ahead will have a lot of shock value.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Between now and year end, the shock value will become apparent.

Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

This one month long consolidation is nothing more than the major market averages coiling to take out multiple significant areas of resistance in an extremely short period of time. Upside velocity in the weeks ahead will have a lot of shock value.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 months

A shift in character taking place today for the markets as the SPX is rallying with bonds and BTC accompanying the move. The Fed liquidity trade warming up the closer we get to Jackson Hole.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

During the 90s front running split announcements was so profitable that there were services dedicated to finding companies ripe for a split. Expect triple digit priced tech companies to take note of what is occurring with AAPL & TSLA, with a surge in split announcements ahead.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

11 months

The last bastion of bearish hope lies with Powell tomorrow. Once this final glimmer of desperation is dashed, there will be nothing left to cling onto except for random ill conceived technical dart throwing. A crescendo of buying awaits in the wings.

Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

11 months

Increasing evidence that the shock and awe stage of this bull run is imminent. Once 4610 falls, 4850-4900 is the target. Expect new highs no later than mid-January.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

The default reaction to a neutral report out of TSLA will be to cover shorts. There are a lot of trapped bears that thought the report would bail them out. Tomorrow they begin to trample one another searching for an exit.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

Have to go back to the full blown panic days of March 2020 during the height of the pandemic to find a volume bar compared to what we saw today in TLT. Bearish types now discussing 10% rates on the ten year very casually. Reversal imminent.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

Former resistance now being carved out as support. The next leg up awaits. Looking for SPX 4650-4700.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

6 months

"Sell in May and go away" mantra has disappeared from Fintwit in the first 10 days of the month. Expect it to be trending by month end. A hollowing out of bidders into CPI, NVDA earnings and PCE at month end. May is a tale of two months. 4850 is closer than most think.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

All we did today was confirm that the SPX wants to use the 200 day ma as support moving forward while coiling to take out trendline resistance at 4090 & 4120. More importantly, rates & USD are getting absolutely pummeled, setting the table for what's to come. Pucker up.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Another pathetic volume day as the markets remain rangebound while crash callers expand their horizons with all sorts of imaginative scenarios. Greatest amount of mkt noise will always come following periods of extraordinary mkt stress. Fog of war.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

10 months

Once the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024 two problems will immediately arise: 1. Expectation problem - the markets and economy will demand greater stimulus in order to react, forcing the Fed into QE. 2. Forward inflation expectations - inflation expectations will spike as the

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Ratio of NDX to equal weighted NDX is at its most oversold going back close to 20 years. Once the rate decline begins to gather momentum the catch-up trade in mega cap tech will be one for the history books.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

Some random thoughts: - Being dismissive of AI shows a lack of understanding for how these trends evolve and mature over time - Markets have a good shot of running right into Q2 earnings season into late July - early August. - The wall of worry remains substantial although a

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

The more markets fail to appeal to your instinctive desire for safety & logic, the more you should find them appealing. The more markets lure you into a feeling of security & optimism, the more suspicious you should become. We remain squarely in the "fail to appeal" phase as

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

1+ month range on the S&P not going to be able to hold for much longer. Stress is building. Dam about to break. 3430 first upside target.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Low volume rinse today. Might be one of lowest volume days of the year. Remain rangebound in major market averages as consolidation for the next leg up continues. This week will likely end a lot different than it started.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

Should the markets make new highs at some point in 2023 it will serve as confirmation of 2022 being an extraordinary pullback in both duration and velocity within a long-term secular bull market. This is important because we can then determine with a good deal of certainty that

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

The moves market is making in a few days in 2020 would normally take weeks, months and years. This market remains on a significantly accelerated schedule. Have to adjust decision making to this pace or else you may as well spend your day playing checkers.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

11 months

Blowoff tops don't typically consolidate for two years prior to entering a bear market. However, bull markets that are preparing for their next monster upleg certainly do.

Bespoke

@bespokeinvest

11 months

S&P 500 close on 11/30/23: 4,567.80 S&P 500 close on 11/30/21: 4,567.00

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

You can't flinch on the first reaction day after a rally of this nature. Today was a shakeout. Do I want to get overcommited on this dip? No. At the same time, bonds baited investors into selling today which is bad news for the bears as we don't have much in the way of

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Cut short exposure to zero this week. All the assets that you would expect to be confirming a stimulus bill will be passed (long yields, USD, metals, crypto) are giving the green light. Bears window to take the market down into election has closed.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Until we get above 5000 on SPX, moves in the market will continue to be very lumpy. The nature of this rally is throwing everyone off. Prolonged pause/consolidation is causing investors confusion, feeding their greatest fears. All while accumulation patterns are growing.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

History rhymes and so do market tops....

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

10 months

A steep bull run into rate cuts, with the start of rate cuts marking the top of the run would serve to trap the greatest number of investors next year. This time last year it was a completely different trap. From a year ago.....

Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Sitting in bearish positions whether aggressively so via shorts or conservatively so via cash expecting either "follow the Fed" to keep working or even worse, expecting the market to jump from inflation bear market to recession crash is THE pain trade.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

8 months

Looking back , investors will be most surprised in the future to discover that what many perceived as entering an asset bubble was actually the beginning of the most potent phase of the long-term secular bull market cycle.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Consolidation of the past month right beneath key resistance insures that multiple points of overhead resistance fall in short order. We should move to the upper band at 4300 by Monday, at the latest, before consolidating in preparation for a move to my year end target of 4500.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

I'm giving everyone their fair share of bullish ammo going into the most perversely bearish Thanksgiving table of the past 100 years. Fight on.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

As far as perfect consolidations prior to the next leg up, this one has everything you want to see, including volume contraction, price contraction and the consolidation level.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Volume says we are getting ready to launch. Resistance turning to support in the weeks ahead. Expecting 4300 to come quickly.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

8 months

Imagine being able to participate in one of the greatest tech trends in decades, and you turn to accounting fraud and shell companies as your reasoning for not just passing on the investment, but shorting the stock. Human psychology never ceases to amaze.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

5 years

New Zenolytics Post: It's Time For Investors To Go All In On Equities

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

9 months

In a couple years it will be clear to everyone that the breakout we are currently in the process of experiencing in both the SPX and NDX was the beginning of a massive uptrend as opposed to any conceivable end. An overwhelming majority still don't get what is happening here.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 months

There is a sense of dismissiveness in the air. Market pundits are perfectly fine with the current decline, figuring it will be a routine midcycle correction, moving down no more than 10%. This market continues to exhibit devious characteristics. Those who think this pullback

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

If you are listening to everything that Powell is saying and you are bearish on asset prices from here, then you are listening to nothing Powell is saying.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

6 months

We have a Fed that has been looking for an excuse to cut rates. This unforeseen crisis in the Middle East provides the perfect cover. Whatever black swan is being expected with this conflict will be mitigated by a wave of new liquidity. Only question is when to go heavy.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

3 months

Still 130% long. Only thing that has changed is rotated some mega-cap tech exposure Monday at the open.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

7 months

An inconsequential day today that is attempting to have investors believe its important. In other words, a shakeout. Seems to be working.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

In case you are left wondering after today's Powell speech, he's getting ready to slow rates to 25bp and then nothing at all by end of Q1. Data over the coming weeks and months will only further embolden the markets of this path forward.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

As solid a setup as bulls would want heading into another challenge of significant overhead resistance for NDX & SPX. Change in price behavior versus all of Q4 took place today in NDX as the mid band (red) didn't create further velocity to the downside. 12500-13000 comes fast.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

One helluva setup to go straight to 4200 shattering key resistance. The sooner the SPX moves into the red bands at 4200-4350 the better the chances of a continuation from there to 4500-4600. Speed of ascent is key now as is moving above 4200 with a sense of urgency.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

The trap is set. A fairly standard rinse during first week of tech earnings that is causing majority to believe earnings are factored into price. The bull has a long ways to go still. Expect July to end with Nasdaq at all time highs.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Parabolic runs always start with the biggest, brightest, most recognizable names and then like a wave, investors move down the market cap ladder, creating similar runs in smaller companies. We are closer to a beginning of this process taking place than an end.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Bull are picking up pennies in front of a steamroller with a Lamborghini engine.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

8 months

@BeastfromP Very soon.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

It will be a mistake to confuse a shakeout in a market littered with overleveraged, emotional participants as anything more than that. A pristine buying opportunity in high quality growth. Nasdaq at new highs by the summer.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

The past couple days with the FTX drama paired with exaggerated CPI fear was perfectly timed to get everyone to lean the wrong way into this friendly inflation print. Hivemind of the market never ceases to amaze in its ability to manipulate and deceive.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Buyers at 4500 will be "what about the bear market?" guys. Buyers at 5000 will be "what about inflation?" guys. Buyers are 5500 will be "what about recession?" guys.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Wonder what the bears will be saying in a couple weeks when the VIX is below 20 and the SPX is above its 200 day ma going into the strongest seasonal period for equities? Sure to be entertaining, at the very least.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Today is different. Risk on assets...software, precious metals, semis, crypto all reversing in unison while yields are moving up. Type of dance we haven't seen in a long time. Hints at some noteworthy shifting of capital. Have moved to a significant cash position.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

$SPX with a very obvious magnet to 4100 as both the 200 day ma and trendline resistance (soon to be support) are now in play. I expect that most of November will be spent between the 4100-4300 range, before moving up to 4500 to close out the year.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

7 months

Coming from one of the very few who has called this market rally correctly from the very beginning makes it all the more appreciated. A rare breed.

Ryan Detrick, CMT

@RyanDetrick

7 months

@AMeshkati You've been so right. Nicely done my friend.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

10 months

I have been sharing this 100 year Dow chart on X periodically for many years. It's the guiding light for a secular bull market. Secular Bulls are getting longer/steeper. As we enter 2024, take the time to understand what this means for the years ahead.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Now if the Dow can do 20% in two months during what remains an uncertain time, put your thinking caps on and consider what the Nasdaq can do in two months while rates plummet in the months ahead. Whatever your number, it's too conservative.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

11 months

I have a watchlist of 315 names. These are the top 10 gainers for today. Monthly gain is the next column over. Spec wave has arrived. What most investors don't get is that it is closer to a beginning than any conceivable end. Throw away your 2021-2023 playbook.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

9 months

Investors are often baffled by how quickly I can change my mind with respect to mkt bias. I trust my signals more than I trust myself. This comes from 30 years of watching moves play out & the only obstacle being my own bias. So now I don't have a bias. I just have signals.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Sitting in bearish positions whether aggressively so via shorts or conservatively so via cash expecting either "follow the Fed" to keep working or even worse, expecting the market to jump from inflation bear market to recession crash is THE pain trade.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

3 years

Market has put a lot of energy into the shakeout this week in growth. Number one rule of the jungle: They only shake the tree hard when there is something good at the top.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

9 months

Close over 4900 today sets the market up for a vertical move next week. Dips are getting devoured. Earnings and Fed will fan the flames. Blowoff type potential.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Next phase of the rally, during the next 4-6 weeks, is going to blow out the numerous bearish camps, while institutional capital floods a relatively thinly traded market simultaneously.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

What is most shocking is how many investors actually believe that they can simply wait around for the Fed to pivot, and then ride the markets up from there. This isn't your mother's kitchen. Markets aren't here to make things as comfortable as possible. Au contraire...

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

8 months

Prior to NVDA preearnings shakeout I would have put the probability of 746 high being THE top at somewhere in the 5%-10% range. With this shakeout you can move that down to less than 1%. Bears have a problem now. Price structure & today's earnings catalyst no longer line up.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

The recent consolidation increases the probability that 4100 becomes an acceleration point for price instead of a stopping point. This is the only thing that has changed versus last week.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

3 months

They actually threw every single technical trick in the book from M-W at investors prior to today's liftoff. A very impressive and commendable effort to get the maximum number of participants off balance. It has been awhile since I've anything like the past few days. There

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Mkts rally into YE irrespective of what we observed today. While Powell was more hawkish than anticipated, mkts have bottomed & will rally to new highs well before Fed is done raising rates. Those waiting for Powell to give them OK before buying stocks will be buying at SPX 5k.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

The lower VIX goes, the greater the pressure on investment managers to allocate their large cash allocations. As an institutional investor, when you get to a VIX below 20 while holding onto to a large cash balance for fear of another leg down, you're unemployed or close to it.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

7 months

98% have no idea this resistance level exists. 99% cannot grasp the bullish consequences of continued momentum from here, instead focusing on "but the market is already up so much the past few months." Secular bull market resets create price trends that seem unbelievable.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

1 year

Want to get insanely long equities? You do it on the capitulation spike over 5% on the ten year into the November FOMC as everyone simultaneously throws in the towel on a bottom in bonds AND a year end rally. Time and price will come together wonderfully soon. Patience.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

The perception that the market can only run with Fed QE/easing tailwind at its back will be the most harmful mental framework of all in the months and years to come. Erase 2010-2020 from your minds. This is a completely different animal.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Call for 3600 on the S&P isn't anything new. I was calling for it in early April by late Q3/early Q4. The only thing that has changed is the market is on a far greater accelerated schedule than I anticipated. Mid-August now seems more appropriate.

Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

5 years

New Zenolytics Post: Here Is Where The S&P 500 Is Headed For The Rest Of 2020

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Remember...they only shake the tree hard when there is something good at the top.

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@AMeshkati

7 months

Most investors are missing why volatility has disappeared from the NDX and SPX at these levels. A rare confluence of key levels in both major averages and megacap tech names is set to propel the markets significantly higher in what has a high probability of being the steepest

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

2 years

Today's signal of the ongoing upside continuation pattern being formed is the carefully constructed close at 4016 on the SPX, close to 1 full point higher than last week's intraday high. Market continues to use former resistance as support. A big change from most of 2022.

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Zenolytics

@AMeshkati

4 years

Only in the market of 2020 could one of the largest tech vc firms buying billions of dollars of calls in tech names be interpreted as utterly bearish news, guaranteeing a market downturn Goes a long ways towards revealing what remains pervasive, ingrained bearish investor bias

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@AMeshkati

2 years

Bond yields are still in the process of carving out a topping formation. Downside momentum in yields is yet to begin. NDX gets to 15,000 quickly during the next stage of yield decline.

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