Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd @1874Pritch Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

@1874Pritch

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Data Science, analysis & visuals with tactical context. Subscribe to my Substack! Available for freelance analysis & writing, just DM. He/Him

Brummie in Germany

https://t.co/y0Ia7rVfPR

Joined August 2021

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 months

If anyone looking at my feed happens to be in a position to hire someone with a data science, analysis & visualisation skillset for sports I'm available and happy to chat. Currently finishing up my PhD thesis, speak working level German, and I don't think I'm an awowriter either.

@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 months

@SamWallaceTel There's a lot of things for England to fix that would make this a good shift if we can solve them. Like the article, and appreciate the visualisation even if it was a bit rough. If you or the sports department at the @TeleFootball are looking for someone to help with them DM me.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

So I've seen a few times (particularly when we lose) that #AVFC under Gerrard don't have an identity, which in my view is kinda nonsense. It's got some way to go both but there are clearly patterns emerging. Going to do my best to talk about it a where I think it will go. 1/Long.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

So as someone from Birmingham I do care enough about #BCFC to call bullshit when I see it and ss a Villa fan I don't care enough to sugercoat it. That stadium is either another smoke & mirrors move by another crap Blues owner or it will be the cause of the club's liquidation.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

#AVFC Vs #BAFC post mortem. We're back! Not with a bang but with a whimper. I'm not going to dress up a poor result and performance, but I am going to play down some of the extreme reaction that happens whenever Villa lose to an opponent like this.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

So summer is coming & PSR means we probably sell one bigger name, but who? I want to look at what this squad needs to refresh & progress while keeping costs low and prioritising homegrown players due to Brexit & UFEA squad registration. #AVFC squad planning long read🧵.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Quite literally a small announcement. I've been a little inactive for a few days settling a new little Villan into life at home! Though my brother-in-law has already gotten him Gladbach membership so he's going to have to split loyalties.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

#AVFC data scouting for number 8. Now that Bissouma has dropped off the radar, and with Luiz unlikely to stay, Villa are in the market for a new 8.

@greggevans40

Gregg Evans

2 years

#AVFC may still look for a new No.8 this summer, but #BHAFC Yves Bissouma is no longer on the list. Villa have moved on. Unlikely to sign another CB this summer, either.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

4 months

Jhon Durán, 7 goals, 8 yellow cards in all comps, absolute box office. Love him. There's air in his numbers (≥4 xG) & substitute effects for sure but he's getting all the right production I look for in developing forwards. Particularly his shot production, really good sign.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

NEW #AVFC FORWARD JHON DURÁN 🧵. A signing that signals a much needed change in recruitment strategy and looks very interesting. Will start off with the stats, though how they will scale to a PL level will require some PA and frankly I'm no MLS expert, will see what I can do.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

6 months

@AVFCStatto Could do with prime Gareth Barry with Kamara out. God with working knees gets into any Villa XI too.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Last night was pretty horrible. After the Mings' injury I don't think anyone on the Villa side wanted to continue so once the injury happens a 3rd felt inevitable, as the collapse afterwards (see @markrstats ' xG timeline). Looks like a long term rethink.

@markstatsbot

markstats bot

1 year

Newcastle 5 : 1 Aston Villa ▪ xG: 4.05 - 1.77 ▪ xThreat: 1.92 - 1.34 ▪ Possession: 52.4% - 47.6% ▪ Field Tilt: 53.7% - 46.3% ▪ Def Action Height: 43.6 - 49.5 #msbot_eng #epl

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

3 months

@mattlyynch The deal would probably be a psudo-swap. On paper Juve buy Luiz for 60m or so. On paper we buy 2 players for 20m each and amotise the fees over the length of the contracts + salary. On the books that's around a 50m profit assuming 5 year contracts & if I understand PSR.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

@Jon_Mackenzie Watching Jon get through this match analysis without without saying the word lucky

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

@tdnightingale Other mid table clubs would kill for a 1 in 3 striker with his workrate and off ball upside.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

10 months

So 🧵 about Villa's underlying numbers. Here's the 10 game rolling xG and we're looking good. Season has seen our chance creation come close to 2 goals a game, and the difference to our chances against is growing. But, we're still conceding quite a few which is a big ❓.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

The final tl;dr of this is, #AVFC aren't actually that far away from looking quite good. Good recruitment and fine tuning is key, but next season I expect to see: A more intense press. A higher defensive line. A more possession focused midfield. And hopefully more points #UTV .

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Now that Villa twitter has calmed down about this. Kev's done a good summary of what's going on right now at #AVFC , Unai isn't some probability altering magician, he's a manager who has gotten his side into great form. Back Emery to turn our form into sustainable performances.

@Edit_Kev

Kev Lawson

1 year

#NUFC 's next opponents #AVFC results are pretty great atm & no doubt the game at Villa Park will be tough. But looking at the xG diff vs. their actual Goal Diff suggests shows that it'll be pretty hard to sustain in the longer term. 👇 1/

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

McGinn has been so vital without Kamara for covering that right side space between Konsa & Bailey or Diaby both on & off ball. Great again yesterday, win the ball & move it 👌. Examples from the last couple of matches where 4/6 points is what I wanted going in for 4th spot.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

8 months

👀 A replacement for Dendonker who better fits our game model to back up Luiz and Kamara was top of my list for this window. The knock on effects to the starting 11 without Kamara (Carlos in, Konsa RB, Luiz/McGinn pivot) make us significantly worse without him.

@David_Ornstein

David Ornstein

@David_Ornstein

8 months

🚨 EXCL: Napoli in talks with Aston Villa to sign Leander Dendoncker on loan. Not done between clubs or with 28yo Belgian midfielder but #Napoli progressing with deal until end of season. Joined #AVFC from Wolves in 2022 - contracted to 2026 @TheAthleticFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

*Data viz on #AVFC 8s again* So talk of Porto's Otávio has picked up and I'd like to get into more detail on him. Thought I would also look at the data for the players suggested in @TifoFootball_ 's sensible transfers. So here's our trusty scattergram! (No one is trapped in it)

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Sticking my head above the parapets once again to point out that maybe people shouldn't take what Emery says about transfers in interviews as gospel. He said this about Sanson then shipped him out, not going to say Olson's shit is he?

Morgan Sanson 'a good player' as Emery confirms changes vs Man Utd

Unai Emery was asked about Morgan Sanson and what he could bring to Aston Villa given he has been frozen out under previous managers

www.birminghammail.co.uk

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Tactics/squad planning🧵 Interesting to see what Villa do now. Highlights the need to be flexible on the pitch & in the market if you're not a top club. I.e. We're probably not going to spend £40m+ on a SS and aRW, then add a RB/RCB so have to find solutions in the squad.

@FabrizioRomano

Fabrizio Romano

@FabrizioRomano

1 year

Aston Villa are advancing in talks to sign Pau Torres. Deal not completed yet but progressing to key stages between the two clubs. 🟣🔵🇪🇸 #AVFC Bayern decided to go for Kim as priority and Villa now pushing to sign Pau — as Unai Emery wants him.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Nice work from @pgr_analytics here. It's an interesting link, the pizza plot would indicate Merlin is more involved in buildup than Digne. The buildup into the dual 10s was only downside of the Targett to Digne upgrade. Could be a real asset to have that from the bench.

@pgr_analytics

PGR

2 years

A comparison with Lucas Digne here… Learning from Digne who will be approaching his prime years as a professional at Villa could be very helpful for his development #AVFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I'm lukewarm on Barnes tbh. Not sure what he really offers beyond pace and shots, kind of a pure end product player. But there's definitely a case for a player who can rotate in and stretch things on the left wing, maybe Emery can see him on the right too 🤔🤷.

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@villareport

villareport

1 year

Aston Villa are leading the race to sign Harvey Barnes. They are currently seen as the likeliest destination due to a strong package the club can put together. It’s also understood that being able to maintain connections to the area could be attractive. @MiguelDelaney #avfc

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Good performance if not the result we wanted. Improving but not the finished product. Didn't meet Tom Hanks but @danbardell was a close second 😉. #UTV

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

It seems from the outside that Gerrard and Beale are a classic manager coach partnership (think Fergie and his number 2). Gerrard sets overall vision, standards, and mentality. Beale coaches the shape and tactics. Perhaps Gary Mac makes a cracking cuppa, I don't know 🤷.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

So as I've been banging on about the youth development upside of European qualification (which is not guaranteed), I thought I'd look at the output (and just that, I've not been watching the EFL beyond highlights) of our championship loanees, and how they might scale at #AVFC .

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

9 months

Hot take apparently: Villa are fine and sometimes you get footballed. Got counter pressed into giving up too many shots sure but Utd covert the only 3 in a dangerous area, happens 🤷. Much weaker buildup unit without Kamara and bad ball retention leads to shots.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Even without his goal Sanson has probably been Villa's stand out performer. He's often been the one to look to run in behind and get beyond the back line. Not sure if it's part of Emery's plan but his tendency to move wide gives the 433 the width of our usual 442. A Mezzala role?

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Positives, Kamara is good isn't he, intelligent positioning and breaks up the opposition play really nicely. Outside of his crossing Cash was great, he was beating players on the outside and progressing the ball through the lines, we've needed more of that from the FBs.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

I'm seeing it being celebrated when it's hugely concerning when you actually think about the financial reality. Can Blues' income support building a larger stadium ❌. Will it be full enough to pay off ❌. Will a hedge fund personally fund it ❌. That means loans, bad ones.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I'm seeing a lot of people dunking on this like Ultras are beneath us? Ultras hold their club to account when they raise ticket prices 30% or put hospitality into their kop end. We could learn a thing or two from ultras. It is crap that Villa don't allow you to express fandom.

@blocksevenhibs

BLOCK SEVEN

@blocksevenhibs

1 year

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Well I promised it so here's a 🧵 on AVFC's underlying chance creation numbers. 🦁Stability under Emery but Europe? Maybe but not likely. 🦁Understanding an xG timeline. 🦁Was SG unlucky?/Why context is important.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

Right muted notifications now. For the Blues fans I hope it works out, genuinely, Wolves is not a proper derby. Was born & raised local, plenty of Blues friends and family & am sceptical of investment firm promises. I think you should be too but you do you.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Villa running into the same issue as our previous managers (and every midtable side), when we open up and look to control a match (particularly at home with fans) we're also too open at the back. Difference this time is Emery has shown himself to be an excellent problem solver.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

In the end I'm just glad we have an elite level problem solver in charge because losing Mings is big. Wouldn't want anyone else but Emery to oversee this.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

3 months

If as an #AVFC fan you're not thinking about this summer in terms of: 1. The wage bill cannot cannot go up. 2. The squad's age must come down. 3. We will have to be clever to find more production cheaply. 4. Last season was the peak of our squad. Then you will be disappointed.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

8 months

"When history sees Isildur, they see a hero who is worth a legacy. When I see Isildur, what I see is an imperfect understanding of where heroism comes from. Guy's got a great sword, he cut the ring from Sauron's hand but is he worth how Gondor is mythologising him, no, no."

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@HeylKatme

QQ

9 months

Elrond putting together the Fellowship roster

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Too little pressure for the line we want to play, very Newcastle. Particularly on Trent who can ping it where he wants. Ramsey, Buendia & Moreno are big misses the former for their energy in the press, the latter for recovery pace on the left. Set pieces without Mings 😬.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

7 months

I think we'll start out with McGinn/Luiz with Tielemans or Diaby in the 10. Could really do with the latter picking up some form. But give Iroegbunham minutes and we could have a press resistant DM allowing McGinn to thrive for the final run in. 🤞

@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

8 months

Here's a previous thread I did in the summer on Iroegbunham. I'm someone who thinks the top PL clubs overlook the talent in the EFL. Emery/Monchi chasing Rogers shows they think similarly. If Tim had been brought this window for £8M I'd be excited.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

@Alex_Berwick Doing a 🧵 in the week on some early season data trends but in seems Emery is kinda using Cash to replace Ramsey as the box crasher. Kamara dropping in frees him to get into the space left by Diaby. 2nd in minutes played and npxG. 3rd for touches in the box & shots.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

8 months

Quick #AVFC squad planning thoughts this January. So far we average 0.5 more xG than our opponents, should be enough to secure a CL spot. We can concede less and score less or be open at both ends. I think it would take some major upgrades to improve that that difference.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I hope the relegations doesn't effect Dean Smith job opportunities much. Both seemed to have looked at Villa's survival and decided the English man manager is a relegation & promotion specialist guy. Whereas he's more of a maximise young talent to establish a new project guy.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

10 months

I am/was ok with Multi-Club models and trading between them as long as shared resources benefit all clubs and they retain identity (🐮🪽👀). But there's such a huge difference between that and the KSA owning an entire league in their absolute monarchy to trade with Newcastle.

@David_Ornstein

David Ornstein

@David_Ornstein

10 months

🚨 Premier League clubs to vote on banning loans between associated party for January window. If approved, potential deals like Ruben Neves from Al Hilal to Newcastle will be blocked. Temporary measure until longer-term solution agreed @TheAthleticFC #NUFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

8 months

Emery's comments on Iroegbunham give me some pause on getting a new DM in. At an age where he needs minutes, and a backup we don't use isn't a backup if we will just go to McGinn/Luiz when Kamara is out. Hope he and Kesler-Hayden get a run at Chelsea and push for minutes.

@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

8 months

👀 A replacement for Dendonker who better fits our game model to back up Luiz and Kamara was top of my list for this window. The knock on effects to the starting 11 without Kamara (Carlos in, Konsa RB, Luiz/McGinn pivot) make us significantly worse without him.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Villa need a deep 8 to control the play with Kamara if we're to get the best out of this system and McGinn. I understand why we haven't moved given the bloated squad but the market is getting thinner for that type of player. Ideally that player has areal presence too 😬.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

3 months

Here's my backup Watkins if Duran leaves hot take (or the case for Cameron Archer). Don't, like don't try to get bench-Watkins, don't spend money and wages on a CF 'just in case'. Look to the squad & find another way to get shots, here's a hypothetical way or doing just that.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Me and the little fella have travelled to the bummie homestead this weekend and @KathrinStrauss has him prepared for Matchday 🥹. I'm excited to see Emery's tricky Villans in person for the first time later #UTV !

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Pau is your long term left footed CB option, brought in for a lot of money and familiar with the system. Rather than looking to replace Mings outright (which never really works out) look for a long term partner for Pau. Aerially dominant, aggressive, mobile, on ball is a plus.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Quite an exciting signing for #AVFC . We've leaned too heavily on opportunity signings and it's left gaps in the squad so it's nice to see that change. The MLS isn't the retirement home it once was and is developing young talent from the Americas. Duran won't be the last to the Pl

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Player 1 is #BVB 's Mahmoud Dahoud. 26, one year left on his contract. As you can in this radar plot he has a good mix of everything we're looking for here, particularly his metronomic ability, and SCAs which are the cornerstones of a deep 8. His expected assists are a nice bonus.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

@TheHolte1874 I really think the 5 subs will benefit the winger types like Bailey (and maybe JPB). Being able to add width and pace against a low block could be very beneficial. Convinced the if he was available for Coutinho against City we would have still gotten something from that match.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

But I fear that this is all load of loud hot air because that's what it looks like. This side is in real danger of league 1 football because of decisions these guys made & they're talking about a Mega-Projects with 0 basis in sporting & financial reality? Worrying stuff.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Because I'm good at this social media thing I managed to put out my thread during the hour we were maybe getting Harrison. Personally hope Philogene will earn himself a start before the international break 🤷. The thread is about replacing Mings' essential attributes 👇.

@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Last night was pretty horrible. After the Mings' injury I don't think anyone on the Villa side wanted to continue so once the injury happens a 3rd felt inevitable, as the collapse afterwards (see @markrstats ' xG timeline). Looks like a long term rethink.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Ok we've had a look at the table now let's look at #AVFC . Our final position last season was a result of genuine improvement under Emery & good form at the tail end. The goal then is to maintain that position sustainably. Our attack was pretty behind, and it's way up now (2).

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

9 months

@Jamorushton It's been coming. The difference between, "nice to see them doing well" & hate is how dangerous you are to damaging the status quo. We're not challenging City's League dominance but we could disrupt Arsenal, Tottenham & Chelsea and we're seeing the difference in reaction.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 months

It's quite incredible that all the bad contracts (not necessarily bad players) that Villa want to shift to progress came from just 2 windows under Gerrard/Purslow's win now push. Stick to the plan, don't sideline the front office, that's what it's there for.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

3 months

@Jon_Mackenzie Holding out for Wharton to get minutes. I don't like watching Southgate struggleball but Wharton would make it work if that's what you want.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

I've been playing around with ternary plots (triangle plots) for an upcoming article so I decided to take a look at Villa's midfielders on and off the ball here's what I found. #AVFC #dataviz

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Having a quality holding middie at #AVFC 🥹.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

The Durán signing has somewhat changed my view on this. Ings' role as a late finisher/ST competition has already been replaced with a more focal presence. We don't need to find a replacement for Ings we need competition for Bailey Ings is never going to be more valuable than now.

@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

So a lot of discourse over Ings should he be starting or sold? As it stands neither for me. He's the squad's only 'natural finisher' and has more to his game buuutt he's also 31 this year with a big injury record. Maybe his mostly off the bench role maximises his impact 🤷.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

3 years

If Villa are scoring goal of the season contenders from throw ins 10 minutes after employing a set piece coach, I'm very excited about what's to come this season. #AVFC #AVLNEW

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Early season data trends 🧵. So 5 games in and we can start to see some patterns. I'll have a look at the league as a whole and get into Villa this evening. The caveat for this table is that the bottom 8 are quite bad this year so xG is more skewed by schedule after 5 games.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

“Good job invalidating Gary's criticism team. Early lunch?”

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@BBCBreaking

BBC Breaking News

1 year

Gary Lineker to step back from presenting Match of the Day until agreement reached on social media use - BBC statement

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

First pick is Tosin Adarabioyo (26), covered this in the podcast but Tosin is a good fit next to a defender like Pau and while I would expect some time to adjust to our style of buildup he's hardly alien to it. First contact aerial duels are a squad weakness he would address.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Got to sit down with @FrankieMaguire for @VillaNoFiller and chat Emery's approach in pre-season. And it was such a good chat we recorded it for all of you. #AVFC

@VillaNoFiller

All Villa No Filler

1 year

New episode! Great to chat with @1874Pritch to discuss Aston Villa's tactical evolution during the summer. 🟣 Emery's tactical approach 🔵 New signings / New Season thoughts 🎙️ 🎥 #avfc #utv #vtid

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

7 months

@Alex_Berwick Utd finally dropping points when conceding relegation levels of chances feels great and all

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

In a world where the small and defensively lightweight Diaby is your RW then CDK alongside or behind Watkins just makes a lot of sense. Emery has a history of getting the best out of attackers And from a data viz perspective Ben's version of a radar plot is just top draw, 😙👌.

@BeGriffis

Ben Griffis

1 year

Charles De Ketelaere just needs a reset. More playing time. He didn't do enough to earn more time at Milan, and should definitely move to where he can play more Drop a level, either to a top team outside the T4 leagues, or into a mid-table T4 club He's got so much to offer

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Might be the most important thing I've written, so thanks to @7500toHolte giving me the space. Tired of seeing #AVFC (& other teams) looking to wring every penny out of its fans. So let's try to do something about it #sponserthecommunity . Time they showed us we're appreciated.

@HoltecastPod

Holtecast

1 year

With the Premier League’s ‘ban’ on gambling sponsors being lax amid a culture of profiting from fans. 7500 to Holte takes a closer look at Villa’s relationship with BK8 and asks how they might give something back to the community. @1874Pritch | #AVFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

#AVFC 's managerial search (men's) is a really difficult one. We need someone who will get the best out of the current playing squad, but it is a team that has lacked a distinct style to use to find similar candidates. Someone who is going to work with, not against Lange.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

#AVFC Vs #LFC post mortem. Good one for Villa, it shows why I've been hoping to see a McGinn-Nakamba-Luiz midfield 3. The match was really a story of the midfield battle, which was eventually lost without Marv (see plot). But for 65 minutes Villa battled Liverpool well.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Looks to be a bit of forward thinking from Villa too. Target forwards have before rarer but are becoming vogue again with defences increasingly geared for pretty playing out a big forward can reak havok Look at Haarland and Núñez for examples, modern principles, old physicality.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I really hope that #AVFC make a serious European push in this last part of the season now that it's actually on the table. It would solve a lot of questions about our recruitment come the summer.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

For first impressions I usually go to whoscored which provides a nice summary of stats, play style, positions, etc before going into the numbers themselves. He seems to be a 19yo 6'2 target forward type of the sort Villa haven't had for a while, and fans love. Good start.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Wrote a long read about Ollie Watkins' form under SG and refined role under Emery. As well as looking at what makes a clinical forward in the first place. Watkins has been and imo will be in #AVFC 's best xi for some time. So to look at why & Villa's attack further here's a 🧵.

@HoltecastPod

Holtecast

2 years

CLINICAL WATKINS: With 5 goals in 5 matches, Ollie Watkins has never looked better in claret and blue, but is this just good form or is he still the poor finisher his critics label him as? Let’s dig into the data... @1874Pritch | #AVFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I think Villa are currently playing at the top of their range under Emery, it's what a good coach can do. Recruiting quality > quantity in the right places will be the key to raising both the ceiling and floor of that range. Newcastle are in a similar boat (more stability tho).

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Juan Foyth is the obvious choice not bad aerially at all and knows Emeryball and very expensive. My data based choice is Konstantinos Mavropanos of Stuttgart who, having been at Arsenal also knows Emeryball. Played in a 2 or the outside right of a 3 he wins < 70% in the air.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

😐 I believe new owners are allowed to invest a certain amount in the PSR rules, not sure if that's the case for minority stakeholders. Be prepared for more price hikes and charges for previously free services though. Investment funds aren't in this for love of the game.

@AVFCOfficial

Aston Villa

5 months

V Sports S.C.S., a joint venture of Nassef Sawiris and Wesley Edens and the owner of Aston Villa FC and Aston Villa Women FC, announced today the completion of the previously announced agreement with Atairos under which Atairos will become a minority partner in V Sports.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Carney Chukwuemeka potentially staying is probably the only reason I don't want Villa to go all in on Manu Koné this summer

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

This doesn't help either though. Kamara drops between our CBs in buildup to push the FBs on. But the 8s are both fairly wide and static. They can just sit in their block, no decisions needed. A deeper 8 needs to drop in to offer an option, try to force blockers out of position.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

10 months

Potentially a good time to be playing Tottenham on their patch if Maddison is also out. Villa can focus in Sarr & Kulusevski to deny Spurs' creativity to Son and reduce shots. Another big team away and we can't keep getting whacked in those situations.

@Matt_Law_DT

Matt Law

10 months

Fears that James Maddison's injury is worse than first expected. Ange to give fitness updates later. Story with @JPercyTelegraph #THFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I take bet B personally and spend £40m+ on an exciting piece like Jonathan David or Mohammed Kudüs and raise the squad floor with a few cheaper deals/see if a good opportunity in the market comes along.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

@KatyMontgomerie Me: Is this hate speech? Musk's Twitter: Only if there might be legal consequences 🤷.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

1. Pressing. I saw lots of this, closing down in a straight line as opposed to curving the run. The curve typically blocks a passing option like here. That we aren't doing it all the time is a coaching issue, if we do want to suppress teams and win the ball high then we need to.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

I had a really good time chatting Villa's squad after the window with @TheHolte1874 on the @AVFCFaithfulPod ! We got into the weeds about the wildness of the market this summer and how Villa actually managed to find relative value navigating it + plenty more.

@AVFCFaithfulPod

The AVFC Faithful Pod🎙

@AVFCFaithfulPod

1 year

🚨 Guest Episode 🚨 James was joined by the excellent @1874Pritch to analyse and assess the Villa squad post transfer window and any potential tactical/personnel developments we may see. Hope you all enjoy it! #AVFC

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

@Jon_Mackenzie Where can I find this!? Not sure where I'll find the time but I'm sure my 1 year old will love it right?

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

@Alex_Berwick Digne staying is more to do with Sevilla playing hardball for Acuña than Digne having a bunch of space and looking really good for a few matches. But the two coincided and so we have that narrative. I expect he'll be out in January, hopefully for a longer term LB.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

To sum this all up our loanees show a fair bit of promise but only Archer and Iroegbunam seem to have the clearest shot at making the squad next season. But the final decision will be down how Emery see's them when they return to Villa and not what the did for other clubs.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

So to the market then. Another option is to accelerate any plans to succeed Mings which the club should have in mind anyway. But that option ranges from driving a dump truck of money to Palace for Guehi to asking to loan Max Kilman. Smart money is on rethinking the role.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

So here is a very early version of some #dataviz I'm working on to scout players for #AVFC 's deeper 8 position. I decided to include #LFC 's Thiago as a comparison... Wow, just simply wow. Back to the drawing board on that idea I guess.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Wonder if this means Tomiyasu might be available for the right price? 🤔

@FabrizioRomano

Fabrizio Romano

@FabrizioRomano

1 year

After Declan Rice, Arsenal complete also Jurrien Timber deal as expected — never been in doubt. Direct call today to agree on €40m deal plus €5m easy add-ons. Timber will sign until June 2028 and he only wanted Arsenal, super excited about the project. Here we go 🔴⚪️ #AFC

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Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

That field tilt counted for little though as we pumped in effective crosses into the box. I think the unfamiliar setup didn't help, here was a classic situation, Bailey & Cash both on the wing, no one in the right half space to create a passing triangle to work it into a cutback

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

As I've kinda become the holistic squad planning guy I'll list what options we have without Mings in order of what I think is most viable. Imo that should be the priority as I think we will still create enough chances without Buendia until Ramsey & Moreno come back.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Not sustainable long term means good form doesn't last forever, it's not a prediction that Villa will implode this weekend. Kev literally says Villa are a tough team! Arsenal are over their xG, so were Liverpool when they won the league. 38 games isn't a huge sample size.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Generalities first. Unsurprising for a group of coaches from the Liverpool youth system Villa set up with a 4-3-3 settled defence and a 2-3-5 attack. The wide forwards are in the half spaces, wing backs add width, midfield covers them. This is regardless of the shape on paper.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Getting two deep midfielders and playing only one of Ramsey or McGinn with a solid platform behind them and this could look great. Midfielders who do it all are rare and out of Villa's reach but a destroyer and a deep playermaker would instantly push this side up the table.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

5 months

Loans would have bad repayments because Blues do not have the income to support building the stadium themselves, are a relegation risk (lowers income), and owners won't put up assets as collateral. Look at Everton, breaking PSR to afford a barely above relegation level squad.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

In principle I really think West Ham have spent the Rice money well. They've raised the level across the pitch rather than focused on midfield & look top half for talent level. Whether this group of players suits Moyes' strengths as a coach is quite another question though 🤔.

@SkySportsNews

Sky Sports News

1 year

West Ham United are finalising details on a deal worth £38m for Ajax midfielder Mohammed Kudus 💰 Another Premier League club is thought to have come in late, but the player wants to go to West Ham ⚒️

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

1 year

Carlos is the only other aerially dominant CB. You can hope a narrow 3 without him mitigates that in play but set pieces are a big worry. Carlos is a question mark after a season out. & the variation on this is Pau LB with Cash RWB but also ❓ Not a big fan of this long term.

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

As @jj_bull says in tifo videos the numbers don't really matter. Villa don't look particularly cohesive, I think that's both personal and coaching, so where's this going? What does it look like with a full pre-season and some recruitment?

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@1874Pritch

Dan Pritchard - I will finish this PhD! data nerd

2 years

Villa could do with another on ball controller in the middle here, can see why we're targeting Guendouzi as that's not Sanson's game. Can also see why Buendia is starting over Coutinio with his off ball presence. #AVLLEE

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