Shubham Garg @WhiteTundraSG Twitter profile | Pikagi

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Shubham Garg

@WhiteTundraSG

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Founder/CEO @ White Tundra Investments. Betting on the world's growing thirst for Energy. I am not an investment advisor.

San Diego, CA

https://t.co/7M0dIzJYtE

Joined October 2021

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

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@WhiteTundraSG

Shubham Garg

1 year

White Tundra's next chapter begins today with White Tundra Petroleum, which has received AER approval to hold licenses for mineral rights + O&G wells! It's now go-time on a goal/journey towards running an E&P that started alongside my Petroleum Engineering studies in 2013. 🛢💰

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@WhiteTundraSG

Shubham Garg

2 years

Very happy today to launch White Tundra's 2022 Price Targets which calculate fair share prices 12-months out at a variety of WTI/AECO pricing scenarios!! Tracking 57 companies based on my 8xFCF model and updated every quarter, best viewed on desktop. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

10 months

Extremely happy to share that White Tundra Petroleum has signed a PSA to acquire 34 wells, 7 facilities, and 15 pipelines totaling ~90 boe/d (65% liquids)! This marks our first asset acquisition and consists of the Provost and Wildunn properties. 🛢💰

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White Tundra Petroleum Announces Acquisition of Oil & Gas Properties in Provost and Wildunn

White Tundra Petroleum Ltd. is pleased to announce that it has signed a binding purchase and sale agreement to acquire producing oil and gas prop ...

www.newswire.com

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@WhiteTundraSG

Shubham Garg

3 years

OPEC+ sees $100 oil and their rig count starts dropping! They are no longer going to subsidize the world with cheap energy whilst draining their reserves/coffers and getting called polluters and planet killers to boot. US shale has the same mindset. Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Global onshore crude inventory is down 66MM barrels over the last 7 weeks = drawdown rate of 1.3 MMBpd. Oil is world economy's lifeblood, and it can't be printed. The longer crude prices stay <$80-100, the higher they reach on the other side and sustain there for longer. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Pioneer Resources, the biggest producer in the Permian just brought 15 wells onto production in their core Midland basin asset. 10 out of the 15 wells came in with IP24's below 1,000 boe/d and overall, these 15 wells averaged IP24's of just 885 boe/d. 🧵

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@WhiteTundraSG

Shubham Garg

3 years

Jan - Feb 2021 was life-changing. Jan - Feb 2022 built generational wealth. The oil industry has given me everything I have and is responsible for people enjoying a higher quality of life and getting out of poverty all across the world. For that, I will always be grateful. 🛢💰

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@WhiteTundraSG

Shubham Garg

2 years

Reasserting my bullishness today at the Wall Street Bull after an amazing 2 year run in oil markets! Investing in Oil & Gas since 2013 has been very profitable but also humbling, with significant runway (and volatility) ahead. Grab the bull by the horns and buckle up! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Final numbers are in, and White Tundra portfolio ends 2022 ⬆️ 143% after a dynamic and high volatility year! Many learnings last year on the way to better understanding O&G macro conditions and better portfolio allocation/construction as structural bull market progresses. 🧵

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Shubham Garg

2 years

EIA Drilling Productivity Report is out and another significant downward revision in oil production estimates. August production was adjusted ⬇️ 160k bbl/d with Permian accounting for 73% of it. What happens as the world slowly accepts the fact that peak shale is here? 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

European natural gas prices are down to 'only 2x' what they were 2 years ago. All it took was doubling LNG imports, panic-filling inventories above $50/mmbtu, industrial consumption down 30%, and a 2SD warm winter. This structurally bullish Energy cycle is just beginning.. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

After 10 consecutive weeks of builds, Chinese onshore crude inventory drew last week as the country reopens from Zero-Covid policy. Increased consumption within China is set to further strain an already tight oil market, taking prices up with it. The trend is your friend. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Price targets have been added for companies that have now released Q4 results since the last update! Also updated FCF yields to match current strip pricing. Corporate presentations page now has the latest files for all companies as of today. Thanks!! 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

After losing money for 11 years straight, American shale finally figured out they can just price gouge instead and make tons of money. Funny they didn't think about doing this earlier. Or maybe it's the global oil market that dictates pricing, not companies themselves... 🤔🤔

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Chinese seaborne crude imports are ticking up strongly with the last 3 weeks representing 3 of the top 7 weekly import numbers all year! Despite this, 🇨🇳 onshore inventories still drew by an average of 400k bbl/d over these 3 weeks. Trust data, not narratives. #BullishAF 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

8 months

The last 3 months have been well spent on rest and recovery, time with family + friends, exploring SoCal, and of course consuming gasoline in 🇺🇲 V8's! Work on White Tundra Petroleum continues behind the scenes and now back actively posting content + hosting seminars! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Big props to @trentkelp for sharing the White Tundra story on his billboard trucks up and down the Vegas strip!! Solving energy ignorance one person at a time and getting the word out on Canadian O&G at the same time! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

9 days into 2023 and 🇨🇳 seaborne crude imports have continued to increase, now well above any month in 2022 and at 2nd highest monthly reading ever! The trend is your friend and this trend is #BullishAF . 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Oil market is now closed, and Jan 29th will mark WTI staying below $100 for 6 consecutive months. The market has proven me wrong on this call. My structural bullish oil cycle thesis, backed up by data, remains unchanged and my portfolio is even moreso allocated accordingly. 🛢💰

@WhiteTundraSG

Shubham Garg

2 years

@anasalhajji @calvinfroedge @JaswalRoger I said it on that Spaces and I'll say it again. WTI will not stay below $100 for any consecutive 6-month period ever again. My portfolio is allocated accordingly. Last $100 was intra-day on July 29th. Happy to publically admit I was wrong if we don't hit $100 again by Jan 29th.

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Despite WTI averaging $95/bbl in 2022, O&G market volatility + changing mindset around FCF allocation = FID (final investment decision) of only 20B boe last year. The world now consumes 60B boe per year, meaning we have been in investment shortfall for 9 years running! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

3 years

Saudi Arabian oil inventories are down 33% in last 3 years. American oil inventories are at 14 year lows and American SPR at 20 year lows! What happens when demand keeps rising, supply can't keep up, and inventory has already been drained? Prices go ⬆️📈.. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Drilling rig count in 🇺🇲 accelerating its freefall as current oil prices are not supportive for high-cost and high-decline shale wells. Capital discipline playing its part and each rig dropped compounds legacy declines + restricts growth, especially given DUC exhaustion! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

🇲🇽 oil production has fallen 50% from a peak of 3.2 MMBpd in 2004 to 1.6 MMBpd this year and expected to further drop by 500k bbl/d by 2028. Decline rates never sleep and any new oil production worldwide must first mitigate legacy declines before adding incremental supply. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

5 months into $100+ WTI environment, supermajors continue to be exceptionally disciplined with $XOM and $CVX running 75% less rigs in shale plays vs. 2019. These companies hold the best remaining acreage but have no interest in aggessively developing it. Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

🇨🇳 crude imports hit 11.1 MMBpd last month = highest level ever! Total crude imports for Q1 were ⬆️ 9% vs. 2022 and ⬆️ 13% vs. 2019. Global oil demand is off to a good start in 2023, especially as international jet travel continues to accelerate. Trust data, not narratives.🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Sunday's session on Q3 Preview discussing all 57 Canadian O&G companies on coverage list is now on YouTube with timestamps! Thanks to everyone who attended and participated, appreciate your continued support and sharing the content!! 🛢💰

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Canadian Oil & Gas Q3 Preview Session

Canadian Oil & Gas Q3 Preview Session - 3 minutes on fundamentals, financials, catalysts, and risks of all 57 companies on White Tundra's coverage list00:00 ...

www.youtube.com

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Onshore crude inventories have moved around to begin the year, with 🇺🇸 stocks building and panicking O&G investors whereas 🇨🇳 inventory is ⬇️ by roughly the same amount! Rest of the world is flat at exactly 2.204B barrels while demand continues to rise. Invest accordingly. 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Great day for the oil bulls and great performance in 2022 YTD for energy investors! Congrats to all who stuck with the thesis, and setting up for further outperformance as we head into the summer at record-low inventories with rising demand in the face of rising prices. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Current energy bull market is progressing nicely with recovery in 2020/21, incredible outperformance in 2022, and slight pullback + bounce in 2023. Structural changes of OPEC back in driver's seat and US shale growth behind us = major tailwinds as the cycle continues along! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Top 5 🇺🇲 oil producers + $XOM $CVX have reported Q4, extending the trend of flat production profiles! After collectively growing 500k bpd per year in 2017-2020, supply from these E&P's has plateaued. Well productivity ⬇️, DUC's are exhausted, and DCET inflation hitting. 🤔🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

70% of all active O&G wells in Alberta now produce less than 10 barrels per day with only 1.5% of wells making more than 100 bbl/d and an even rarer 0.1% produce above 1000 bbl/d. All continously fighting declines in an effort to meet the world's growing thirst for energy! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Gas-oil ratios continue to rise sharply in the Permian's Midland Basin = further signs of a maturing basin and production plateau moving forward. Boundary dominated flow + bubble-point death are becoming more and more evident by the month, Geology always wins in the end. 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

🇺🇸 oil production's high-decline nature becoming obvious in rapid fashion with volumes now ⬇️ to Sep 2022 levels! Well productivity degradation, lack of inventory depth, DUC exhaustion, and political manipulation have together punctured dreams of continued US supply growth. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

2014-2022, 🇮🇳 went from 70 to 140 airports. In the next 4 years, another 80 airports are scheduled to be built! Emerging markets want what the developed world has and their accelerating growth phase will be fueled by rapidly rising oil consumption. 🛢💰

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India to add 80 more airports in next four to five years, 21 greenfield airports | Today News

The Government of India plans to add around 80 more airports in next four to five years and has also given approval to 21 greenfield airports

www.livemint.com

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Shubham Garg

2 years

OPEC+ exports continue to decline due to production issues, lack of proper maintenance, and internal consumption increasing as powergen and cooling demand come into play. Setting up for a serious oil supply crunch this summer at a time of booming demand.. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

WTI averages $110 for March and American drilling rig numbers are flat for the month.. Whether it is producer discipline, supply chain issues, declining well productivity, or weather impacts, reality is that 2022 American oil production/supply is off to a very poor start. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

OPEC+ exports at their lowest level since Aug 2021 Russian exports at their lowest level since Dec 2022 Iranian exports ⬇️ 500k bbl/d MoM Oil price action allowing imaginations and narratives to run rampant, whereas the data and OPEC+ cohesion couldn't be more apparent. 🧐🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

6 months into 2023, 🇺🇸 oil production has flatlined as new wells simply make up for legacy declines and struggle to add any growth! Now drilling rigs are ⬇️ 10% YoY, frac spreads are ⬇️ 8% YoY, and normalized well productivity is ⬇️ 10% YoY. 6 months of declines ahead? 🤔🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

🇨🇳 oil inventory is ⬇️ 1 MMbbl/d last week after a monster ~3 MMbbl/d draw the previous week = 27 MMbbl drawdown in 2 weeks! Global crude inventories are 6% below 2019 levels despite refining maintenance and as global product demand continues to tick up. Invest accordingly. 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Permian production is now flat over the last 10 months as lack of quality acreage and continued productivity degradation majorly impact the basin's capacity to grow! DUC's are fully depleted, most PE-backed growth E&P's have been acquired, and decline rates never sleep. 😈🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

For those invested in oil equities, zooming out to 6 month timeframe shows a clear uptrend and makes the painful drawdowns difficult to identify! Any drop on political jawboning or negative headlines has been quickly bought up as fundamentals are now running the show. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Today's session on O&G Macro Outlook and update on US shale has been uploaded to YouTube! Appreciate all who joined and for the great questions, and have an awesome rest of the weekend. Cheers! 🥂🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Against pipeline constraints and shale's heavy decline rates, Appalachia production has now dropped below 2019 levels! The days of unrestrained growth in both 🇺🇸 shale oil and shale gas are behind us, setting us up for a new O&G regime going forward. Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

OPEC+ showing an intense commitment to voluntary cuts with seaborne crude exports ⬇️ 3.4MMbpd last week vs. April average! Saudi Arabia in particular is tightening the screws with their exports ⬇️ 1.7MMbpd vs. just 5 weeks ago. Trend is your friend, Invest accordingly! 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

10 months

Excellent trip to Houston this week meeting O&G investors, visiting service providers and their workshops, and discussions with M&A advisory individuals! White Tundra Investments/Petroleum continues to build strategic connections and advance on a variety of initiatives. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

During structural bull cycles in commodities/oil, they outperform every other asset class by an incredible margin as seen in 2000 and 2002. 2021 saw commodities top a bullish broad market and 2022 so far has been the year of generating Alpha beyond belief with more to come! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

150+ slides later, PowerPoint is ready for tomorrow's macro outlook session!! Join us at 12 PM MT as we take an in-depth look at oil pricing, inventories, supply, demand, emerging markets, and impact of renewables. Zoom link on website or DM me. See y'all there! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

After peaking at 3.5B barrels yearly production in 1970's, 🇺🇸 conventional oil is following Hubbert's curve and ⬇️ 80% to 0.7B bbls per year! Alaska and GoM require higher pricing, whereas shale oil ramped up massively and will drop-off just as quick. Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

EOG Resources' 2022 drills show a substantial decline in normalized well productivity as reality bites on their 'Double-Premium' well inventory!! Shale wells have now started degrading rapidly, especially for companies that continue to overcapitalize their core acreage. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Lea + Eddy county, responsible for 50% of Permian's production increase over the last 2 years, look to be suffering from an almost comedic well productivity degradation! Longer and longer laterals + overcapitalization meet the laws of physics and reservoir fluid dynamics. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

China's 5 biggest airports have ramped up sharply in the last week after reopening from a short slowdown! On the horizon is 1 MMbpd+ of additional oil demand from Chinese domestic flights, business travel into China + Chinese tourists restarting travelling around the world. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Oil & Gas companies are entering Q2 earnings season with excellent balance sheets, strong capital discipline, and active dividends + buybacks. Revenue growth in this sector results in an outsized impact on margins and an even bigger impact on earnings. Exciting weeks ahead! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

The world's oil cost curve continues to steepen as poor exploration success rate and massive shale reserves writedowns further impact future supply outlook! Significantly less volumes available to develop + materially higher breakevens across the curve. Invest accordingly! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Yesterday's session on Q4 Review and 2023 Junior E&P Outlook is now processed and uploaded to YouTube! Appreciate all your support and questions throughout the presentation, certainly heightens the depth of discussion and keep em coming. Cheers! 🛢💰

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Canadian O&G Q4 Earnings Review + Junior Company 2023 Outlook

Canadian O&G Q4 Earnings Review + Junior Company 2023 Outlook00:00 Intro12:28 Macro31:43 Advantage Energy (AAV)45:00 ARC Resources (ARX)1:00:23 Athabasca Oil...

www.youtube.com

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Shubham Garg

2 years

@POTUS @TheJudge44 Next history to make will be All-time high oil price. Coming soon. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Chinese crude imports continue to rise with past 7 days averaging 12.6 MMbpd, ⬆️ 2+ MMbpd from an already strong October average. Paired with future crude import fixtures also rising, these are signs of a change in the implementation of 'Zero-Covid' moving forward. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Western Canadian natural gas storage deficit continues to grow despite all-time high production. Intra-Alberta demand is running well above seasonal trends and pipeline flows to Eastern Canada and USA are also incredibly strong. Great for Canadian natural gas producers!! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

3 years

"Let's try replacing the highest energy density fuel with the lowest energy density fuel." 😂 Math, Physics, and Chemistry seem to be getting in the way of Electric Vehicle sales pitch. #OilBull 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Crude oil and products inventories are pretty much flat YTD including onshore, floating, and in-transit volumes. What happens as China eventually fully reopens (+2 MMbpd), Russian barrels ⬇️ when winter hits (-1 MMbpd), and SPR stops subsidizing commercial inventories? 🤔🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Consensus is building around declining shale productivity with @RystadEnergy showing sustained declines over past 18 months! Along with heavy legacy shale declines, this double whammy is set to materially impact shale production in 2023. Pay attention when trends reverse. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

O&G Macro Outlook + US Shale Update session is now uploaded in HD and 4K quality! Presentation slides are available in PDF form on the website homepage as well. Enjoy! 🛢💰

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Oct 30 2022 Macro Outlook + US Shale Update

White Tundra Investments' seminar: October 30, 2022 Macro Outlook + US Shale Update00:00 Intro07:30 Commodity Pricing14:12 Inventories51:28 Demand2:19:50 Bre...

www.youtube.com

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Flights at Beijing Capital airport are rising rapidly, pointing to a strong resurgence of 🇨🇳 consumer travel. As global (especially Asian) aviation market continues to rebound/grow, flight schedules are showing 1+ MMBpd of jet fuel demand growth over just the next 2 months! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Energy ETF's have seen $4B net outflows over the last year as investors booked profits while very little new money entered the sector. After outperforming for 2 years in a row, 3-peat is on deck with cash flows and buybacks running the show + possible tailwind from inflows! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Average new Oil & Gas developments in offshore Europe are now 10% the volume vs. 1960/70's when petroleum was initially discovered in this area. The World's easy oil has been discovered, produced, consumed, and in terminal decline. Geology 101, Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Latest price targets based on Q2 results are now out! As debt is paid down and share counts reduce, equities are moving towards higher floors and higher ceilings! Adding coverage on $CEI.V $PEA $PEI.V $TPC.V $VUX.V whilst $TXP $LOU $CNE were removed. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Slides are ready and we are set for tomorrow's session on Q3 Preview for all Canadian O&G companies under White Tundra's coverage list! 57 companies and 3 minutes on each discussing fundamentals, financials, catalysts, and risks. See you there! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Most of Russia's untapped oilfields require massive upfront capital and have breakevens above $50/bbl. Limited access to equipment/expertise, heavy declines on current production and forced to sell oil at below-market pricing are major headwinds for Russian oil production. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

3 years

Even with the most optimistic Electric Vehicle sales, number of gasoline/diesel vehicles on roads continue to grow and do not peak till 2038! Now add in the fact that we don't have anywhere close to the battery metals required to produce this many EV's. Thx @anasalhajji 🤔🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

🇨🇳 oil demand running well-above expectations at ⬆️ 1.2 MMbpd vs. January, with further upside ahead from surging air travel + growing gasoline vehicle fleet + petrochemicals recovery. Beware of those portraying slightly slower demand growth as some sort of demand collapse! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

2 billion people represented by these 7 countries, all on the right part of S-curve and all with significant growth in petroleum consumption. At the same time, their combined crude oil production remains in terminal decline = growing import requirements for years to come! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Chinese onshore crude inventories have largely worked off all excess storage accumulated in 2020. Over the last 12 months, their floating storage is also down from 50MM barrels to 13MM barrels thus setting up 🇨🇳 for a major increase in crude buying and importing in 2023! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Despite calls for its demise, global diesel demand is ramping up buoyed by exceptional strength in Asian reopening + European resurgence! North America has stabilized on trend, and South America continues to grow transportation + farming demand. Trust data, not narratives! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Structural oil bull market continues to develop and #COM has taken the bull by its horns!! Higher highs, higher lows. Follow the data, not the narrative. #BullishAF #LFG 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Q3 update on White Tundra portfolio with a chart of extreme volatility YTD and ending September at +106% for the year. Q4 began on a positive note today and features SPR barrels ending + Russian oil production dropping + oil demand so-far unfazed by recessionary fears. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

3 years

"Ghawar, we have a problem!" Water cuts keep increasing, no place to infill drill more wells and 70+ years of oil production history means Arabian granddaddy Ghawar is in terminal decline. Roaring demand + declining supply = 🛢 💰⬆️

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Canadian oil companies enjoy much higher 'free cash flow' during times of high commodity pricing when compared to peers in other countries and state-affiliated companies. Large tax pools further reduce the tax burden and make a very compelling case for investing in 🇨🇦 O&G. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Another month of OPEC+ unwinding their production cuts, and another month of declining exports. Rapid internal demand growth + Fuel oil consumption for summer power-gen will further reduce volumes available for export and add pressure to an already tight physical market. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

After increasing steadily for the first 9 months of 2022, 🇺🇲 rig counts are struggling to maintain this pace and have even begun to drop recently!! Intense oil pricing volatility, supply chain and labor issues, and now declining well productivity all playing their part. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

3 years

This is what conventional oil production in terminal decline looks like. ~70% of current world production comes from conventional reservoirs with a consistent slope downwards and requiring significant capital just to hold production flat. Supply ⬇️ + Demand ⬆️ = 🛢💰💵

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Excited to share my latest thoughts on energy and oil markets as a guest on @finding_finance podcast! Check out the recording at where we discuss supply/demand dynamics, recessionary fears, current and future catalysts, and Canadian O&G companies. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Historically, E&P's raise CAPEX in an undersupplied oil market only after their valuations rise. This time, valuations are still at record-lows + investors are demanding capital restraint + world is already $2T+ behind in supply investment = 'Higher for longer' bull cycle.🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

After 50+ years of producing oil from prolific conventional reservoirs for <$5/bbl, production costs in OPEC such as Kuwait are continually rising as their fields mature. World's 'easy oil' is becoming more expensive to produce and in terminal decline. Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

$SGY extracting immense value from 2021 SE Sask acquisitions with 5 out of top 11 wells by total monthly production and top 4 monthly liquids rate per 24 hour period! Technical review session upcoming on Sunday of all Surge's assets including $ERF acquisition. See you there!🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

11 months

Global onshore crude inventories are ⬇️ 115 MMbbl over last 90 days (1.3 MMbbls/d) as OPEC+ cuts + lack of supply growth + strong product demand all play their part! All excess + insurance policies being worked out of the system = stronger and longer structural bull cycle. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Oilfield marginal cost of production continues to go up + investors requiring higher risk premiums to make up for commodity price volatility and political interference. Welcome to a new era of oil supply where not many are interested to 'drill baby drill' even at $90+ WTI. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

White Tundra price targets now has the ability to input 3 different WTI/WCS/AECO prices at which the spreadsheet will calculate 8xFCF model targets. 3 separate sheets allow multiple users to compare equities/torque at desired commodity prices. Enjoy! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Here is an example of why shale will have an extremely difficult time adding barrels in 2022. Wells throughout 2021 were engineered for massive IP90/180 rates followed by insanely steep declines. Tough to maintain/grow production when the shale treadmill is so steep. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

After a strong start to 2023, Permian oil production is on a declining trend and ⬇️ 250k bbl/d over the last 6-8 weeks, back to October 2022 levels. Lower oil prices have a real impact on supply, especially in short-cycle shale where decline rates are steep and never sleep! 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

India's electricity consumption continues to rise and hit all-time highs as the country modernizes and its economy grows at an incredible pace. Watch for emerging markets' energy/petroleum demand to grow much higher than analysts expect and thus push oil prices up with it. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

🇨🇦 onshore crude inventories are at multi-year lows and at operational minimums as tight WCS differentials + tight sour oil supply pulls barrels into 🇺🇸! SPR releases now ended + lower pipeline imports from Canada = US commercial inventories drain even faster than expected. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

After starting 2023 with a few weeks of 🇺🇲 commercial crude builds, satellite tracking measurements started drawing in late February. @EIAgov now faced with the task of reconciling 60 MMBbl drawdown they've fallen behind on! S/D fundamentals finally coming back into play. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Latest @RystadEnergy production forecast is out and another sharp revision downwards with YE24 now ~1 MMbpd lower vs. August forecast! Supported by well productivity data, capital discipline, and supply chain constraints, there is a growing consensus around 'peak shale'. 🛢️💰

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Shubham Garg

10 months

Amidst all the chaos, global onshore crude inventories continue to draw with totals ⬇️ 70 MMbbls over the last 3 months! @Vortexa tank utilization is now lowest in last 2 years, however oil prices seemingly more affected by a spooked paper market vs. strong physical market. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Every major US basin has rig counts ⬇️ YoY, with 7 rigs dropped per week sustaining since May despite WTI ⬆️ 15% in that timeframe! Additionally, well productivity (not normalized for lateral length) is ⬇️ 5% in Bakken, ⬇️ 9% in Permian, and ⬇️ 24% in Eagleford since 2021. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

1 year

Onshore + on-water crude oil inventories have drained at a ~3 MMBpd clip over the last 2 months as structural bull cycle strengthens! ⬇️ inventories support paper market speculative positioning and reduces the world's ability to respond to supply shocks. Invest accordingly. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Oil consumption within China is still down 1.5+ MMbpd and their international air travel is down 90% impacting Chinese tourist oil demand in other countries. As incremental demand for these barrels continues to slowly return over time, oil price risk remains to the upside. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

3 years

American crude oil inventories (commercial + SPR) set to breach the 1 Billion barrel mark in the coming weeks. Other than 1 week in 2011, this would be the first time below 1B since late-2008. Very tight physical market + worldwide supply issues + rockin global demand =🛢️💰💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Happy to share my latest thoughts and discussion around some bearish points in oil markets with @MiningStockEdu 2022: Global SPR releases, partial shutdown of 2nd biggest economy, and an extreme Funds Rate hiking cycle controlled oil prices. 2023: True fundamentals return. 🛢💰

@MiningStockEdu

MiningStockEducation

@MiningStockEdu

2 years

Listen to #oil analyst @WhiteTundraSG on: ▶️Why the oil bulls are correct ▶️Sub-$100/barrel oil never again ▶️We're in not just an oil upcycle but rather a “sustained shift upward” ▶️Green transition to kill oil demand? $USO #COM #WTI #OOTT

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Asian economies beginning to ramp up as 🇨🇳 international flights cross the 1,000 mark for first time since January! Flight data is one of the most reliable real-time predictor of a country's oil demand and 3 MMbpd+ of added demand on the way as Asian economies fully reopen. 🛢💰

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Shubham Garg

2 years

Global crude oil + products inventories remain in a tight range, with SPR releases propping up commercial inventories throughout 2022. Supply response continues to be muted, volatility extends timeline for new supply investment, and demand continues rising as Asia reopens. 🛢💰

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