Dara Massicot @MassDara Twitter profile | Pikagi

Pikagi

Dara Massicot

@MassDara

82,764

Followers

630

Following

271

Media

2,375

Statuses

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Russia and Eurasia Program, focusing on defense issues in Russia. Opinions mine RTs not endorsements.

Washington, DC

https://t.co/aUt3olzPOr

Joined April 2018

Don't wanna be here? Send us removal request.

Pinned Tweet

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 months

A brief 🧵about updates and observations about Russian forces' response in Kursk and Russian operations in Donetsk near Pokrovsk. I start by including guidance from Admiral Stockdale, as it's been meaningful to me in my analytic practice, perhaps others will find it helpful too.

Tweet media one

14

152

661

Last Seen Profiles

@mici_le_feu

@Ticketsmarche

@wooooooooooooo0

@ly69079

@sotthes

@bokeplokalmalam

@ynss664672

@ahmedseran

@raashikhan17403

@popokatsujoshi

@sayakaya_id

@BhadauriyaAnand

@BinorRaja

@KuchrooLab

@Abeng_babel

@club_775

@Vinceray03

@Sheautepp

@Takuya_0302Mine

@hay60322658

@CoachSwensVTFB

@Hester4161

@maxine7256_

@EarshotInc

@ColtBrewer30963

@JeseniaWhyte

@Netzweck

@aiiwookyun

@BinorRaja

@tatsunori

@RealMarcCohodes

@superrrnovas

@bahighpost94498

@uMCcLb0zgI2uf

@smbscad

@UMIKA1040649

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

The long-term damage to the Russian army, marines, VDV from this war cannot be overstated. It goes beyond the numbers of men killed and equipment destroyed. This will also be a story of a military generation that is damaged or gone, and who remains. /1

271

2K

12K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

For those in town making choices on security assistance to Ukraine, if you need more reasons, then I have a warning to share with you about the Kremlin. I feel that I have a duty to warn. /1

214

3K

11K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch: 🧵

Tweet media one

152

2K

10K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

The Kremlin is starting to gloat that it is beating us – the west. If they feel like they can win by outlasting the political will of the United States and Europe about Ukraine, they will become much worse in the years to come, cocky and partially reconstituted. /2

62

1K

6K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Russian forces are in the middle-to-late stage of a controlled withdrawal/retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson. A few thoughts about why it’s different than the panicky collapse near Kharkiv, and things to consider moving forward (/1 )

99

882

6K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Today Shoygu and Gerasimov demoted Surovikin, and put Gerasimov in charge of the operation in Ukraine, demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing him with an incompetent one. This is a story that has it all: infighting, power struggles, jealousy /1

Tweet media one

207

947

5K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

Why? Every time the Russians think that they have “won” in a conflict under Putin -- Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Syria 2015 – they learn something about us – and they become overconfident in their abilities and in a few years they try bigger and bolder operations. /4

23

640

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

It appears that the Russians may be losing multiple brigade elements from the 2nd CAA and DNR forces in their assault on Avdiivka. Gerasimov strikes again, this time with no pushback on his bad ideas (so far). Yet there are some troubling issues to consider. A thread. (/1)

Tweet media one

61

630

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

It is my job to look at different futures being rebuilt on the horizon. And I tell you that a bruised , vengeful, and overconfident Russia is one of them that I see on the path we are on, unless choices are made now. /3

17

504

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

If the Kremlin concludes they can outlast Ukraine and Western support, they will tell themselves they overcame or defeated US and NATO intelligence, planning, weapons, tactics, will, and defense production. It would be an inaccurate but dangerous conclusion for them to arrive at.

22

572

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

The most important reason to continue to fund security assistance to Ukraine is for Ukraine. They want to live free from Kremlin subjugation and brutality. They fight hard, they do not ask anyone to fight for them. Look what they've done already to the Russian army./8

13

510

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

Dysfunction is reaching peak levels in the Russian military command as another general is sacked for speaking truth to power and others are detained, or under suspicion. Where incompetence meets betrayal: a thread of the Russian high command and implications for the front /1

Tweet media one

79

785

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

It is in our interests to continue supporting Ukraine for many reasons. Inaction at a critical time could lead once again to a vicious, regenerating, and overconfident Kremlin in the years ahead and would be a political and military catastrophe for all. /end

91

575

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

In sum, the numbers of Russian casualties are severe enough -- but the damage that will ricochet around inside those service branches after this war is over, will be worse.

Tweet card media

Russia taking hundreds of casualties daily in Ukraine war -U.S. official

The United States believes Russia's military is suffering hundreds of casualties a day in its war in Ukraine, and with the loss so far of thousands of lieutenants and captains, its chain of command...

www.reuters.com

99

451

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Sharing some overdue thoughts today. First up: appraisal of the operation under Surovikin’s command, Russia’s transition to the defensive, and the strategy underpinning their strikes on Ukraine’s electrical grid. (/1)

Tweet media one

94

725

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

6 months

Shoigu is out as Defense Minister, moving into head of Security Council. Andrei Belousov , an economist, is taking over. My quick thoughts on what it means for MOD, and what to look about changes possible in the near term. /1

Tweet media one

58

699

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

If Russia were to conclude that their repetitive brute force methods and DIB can overcome western aid to Ukraine and outlast NATO political will and types of support- the outcome would be very dangerous, and it must not be allowed to happen. It could upend deterrence./6

10

453

4K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Looks like Russian forces made efforts to destroy their equipment in Kherson as part of a controlled retreat. Especially types that couldn’t make it across the river for whatever reason, or advanced kit. Thread below that I’ll add to as I see examples (/1)

54

399

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

Prior to 2022, the Russians believed they had several economic, political, and military disadvantages vis-à-vis NATO. If they snatch a type of victory in Ukraine by exhausting and outlasting Ukraine and the West, I believe they will downgrade their assessments about NATO power./7

14

365

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

5 years

I’m not an Iran expert. But I am a military analyst. When I see the impact points of Iran’s strike on Asad air base, I don’t see purely symbolic strikes designed to avoid casualties, as some have speculated. The strikes appear to target the base’s military capability.

Tweet media one

197

1K

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

Have a look at these demands from the Russian MFA. They want the west to give up, and for Ukraine to give up and live in subjugation. It is not subtle. /9

@MartinKragh1

Martin Kragh

11 months

🧵MFA spox Maria Zakharova states Russian conditions for ‘peace’ in Ukraine: - West stops military support to Ukraine - West & Ukraine accepts ‘new territorial realities’ - Ukraine ceases all military activities - Ukraine is fully ‘demilitarised’ and ‘de-nazified’ …

98

242

660

25

511

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Much commentary about Gen Gerasimov’s presence in Ukraine & Russian military command. I wanted to open up the vault about his previous experience as a field commander and how that’s relevant too. (Below in Chechnya). /1

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

40

727

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

Another general is allegedly relieved, the commander of the 106th division (VDV), Maj-Gen Seliverstov. Like Popov, it’s going over poorly in Russian mil channels as part of shoigu/gerasimov purging ranks. One of them wrote “vae victus” (woe to the vanquished) 1/2

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

51

366

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

The Russian military's problems go beyond casualties and equipment losses. It faces two looming crises in retention and veteran PTSD and other disorders, when its soldiers are allowed to leave Ukraine. I explore this topic in my piece for @TheEconomist , linked in tweet below. /1

Tweet media one

108

534

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

It’s hard to for me to fit 18 years of work on Russian military reforms in a few tweets. Shoygu’s announcements since December have been a little surreal to see. In most cases, the posture changes are returning to the past (pre-2010 era), not a step forward. /1

Tweet media one

41

464

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

Observations on the counteroffensive this week. As anticipated, when the UAF close on Russian trenches, they clear them. UAF are making deep cuts on logistics in the south. Strong dissonance (again) between hard realities on the battlefield and what’s happening in Moscow. /1

24

329

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

I write often on Russian military personnel problems because I think it's a central issue. I will be the first to tell you that their military morale is poor in Ukraine. I still would not recommend any plan that rests on 'bad Russian morale will trigger a collapse in the front'/1

62

358

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

....those who survived in Ukraine, bringing back combat stress/trauma/criminality with them, right back into the barracks. This will be a toxic brew for incoming conscripts for years to come. Without significant oversight the conditions hazing could get out of control /4

18

182

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Heavy losses to what professional NCOs RS had, junior + field-grade officers means that the group of people who signed up in the last 10-15 years, when the military tried to reform and who knew something even a little different than 90s or Soviet military life, are gone /2

11

192

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Then, add in the mass casualty events that the Russian military has not coped with since WW2, being sent in unprepared for the Kremlin's war of choice, the lies, the war crimes, atrocities, the list goes on and on. /5

11

159

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Russia’s struggles in Ukraine cannot be explained only as endemic military issues. Kremlin interference undercut performance in critical ways.Their mistakes collided with fierce Ukrainian resistance, western intel and weapons.Will they learn? My latest,👇

Tweet card media

What Russia Got Wrong

Can Moscow learn from its failures in Ukraine?

www.foreignaffairs.com

118

591

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

It is appropriate to talk about strategy for 2024 and matching ends, ways, and means - that is a good idea and it's time to do it. Open door offer to talk. But stopping aid now would mean giving up on Ukrainian soldiers in the field./11

12

243

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

11 months

(The immediate response that came to mind was Gen. McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas letter: “N U T S!” ) /10

Tweet card media

“NUTS!” — McAuliffe’s 1944 Christmas Letter - War on the Rocks

Editor’s Note: In honor of Christmas, we proudly publish the text of Brig. Gen. Anthony McAuliffe's 1944 Christmas letter to the U.S. 101st Airborne

warontherocks.com

13

250

3K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

When this is over, the parts of those service branches left unscathed are conscripts, those officers or NCOs they didn't trust to go in the first place (who are back at home garrisons), senior officers who received commissions as Soviet officers (50/60 year olds) and/3

11

152

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

8 months

A thread on Avdiivka, what it its loss says about Russian strategy and capabilities, and what they may try to do next. /1

Tweet media one

24

487

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

It appears that Moscow’s illegal annexation of 4 Ukrainian territories will happen very soon – possibly tomorrow. There's a great deal of uncertainty for what comes next, but I'll share my thoughts on next steps and how mobilized forces aid the Kremlin's goals (or not).

73

460

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

I’ve been comparing Russian missile strikes against Ukraine over the last few months with what is known about their doctrine and launch capacity. I’d like to share a little about recent trends below. /1

Tweet media one

50

465

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

I continue to look for signs of long-term stability or problems in Russian military personnel recruitment and retention for 2023+ as a result of their war on Ukraine. Some preliminary thoughts from about the Russian spring draft. Conscript intake numbers are low so far (/1).

48

486

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

Although it appears quiet in Russia today, things are not back to 'normal.' The coming days or weeks will tell more. Until then, its wise to consider that “nothing is true and everything is possible” – even the things we see. A few reflections for today:

Tweet media one

27

375

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

We've done research on Russian coercive signaling, which today's MQ-9/SU-27 incident was. It's a close pass that went bad. There are patterns of how Russian platforms intercept U.S. or NATO platforms operating near Russia but in international airspace/waters. Context below.

@laraseligman

Lara Seligman

2 years

BREAKING: This morning, a Russian Su-27 aircraft struck the propeller of a U.S. MQ-9 drone, causing U.S. forces to have to bring the MQ-9 down in international waters, according to @US_EUCOM .

180

1K

3K

87

579

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 years

Now that more Russian military personnel are moving into position near Ukraine, the Kremlin and military’s continued silence & disregard to their own troops and families is unsustainable and may backfire. Signs of early cracks and other considerations below: 👇(/1)

52

623

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 years

So, checking my notes here on Russian Air Force performance while I was away: ❌ Effective CAS, SEAD, evasive maneuvers, and telling their pilots they were going to war ✔️ Planning to fly a giant ‘Z’ for May’s victory day parade

Tweet media one

73

266

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

7 months

I want to add context to Russian announcements of new units. Shoigu has periodically announced these types of changes in peacetime and then not staffed them (like in 2016). This is wartime, so it’s different. Keep an eye on it, but don’t take it at face value. A few thoughts 1/

@Mike_Eckel

Mike Eckel

7 months

Here's Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu announcing the creation of 2 new ground armies, along with 16 new brigades and 14 new divisions. Very unclear where the new numbers will come from, though there are fears of a new, post-election mobilization.

111

274

878

34

423

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Russia has declared its defense operation to be a "counter-terrorist operation" (KTO in Russian). This is a domestic operation and the FSB and Rosgvardia have roles along with the military. This is what the war in Chechnya was called from 1999 until it ended./2

11

138

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

This war has left Russia's borders weak, the army engaged in Ukraine and not immediately available to defend border regions, and FSB border troops not supported. The Russian system's instinct will be to overcorrect and swing harshly at Kursk. /end

50

196

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Russian leaders declare mobilization complete as of 10/31. Below, some thoughts on the stark disconnect between Putin/Shoygu's assurances and actual field conditions for Russian soldiers through the winter. This thread also comes with a very specific soundtrack. /1

44

328

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Images from Lyman, abandoned Russian positions. 4th picture, red bag, stolen women’s tights and an immersion blender. These troops were really out there, slowly getting encircled, yet had mental energy to lug back a stolen immersion blender for the fam back home.

@radiosvoboda

Радіо Свобода

2 years

Лиман Донецької області: наслідки "відведення" військ РФ - спалена техніка та покинуті російськими військами речі, в тому числі жіночий гребінець для волосся та Житомирські шкарпетки Фото Радіо Свобода передали українські військові, які вчора та сьогодні звільняли місто

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

Tweet media three

Tweet media four

14

121

519

77

504

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Someone in Ukraine knew where to press. The AFU attacked a weak spot (Kursk) of the weakest Op Group. A C2 scramble between FSB border guards, Akhmat fighters, and any MOD forces that could rally ensued in week 1. /8

10

176

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Putin has instructed the FSB (+ its border troops) and Rosgvardia to defend the borders and assist this operation. He also told the military today that their main task is driving out Ukrainian forces from Russian territory and countering Ukrainian recon and sabotage groups /3

7

95

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

A quick thread on the wartime pettiness of Russia’s senior military leadership – Defense Minister Shoygu, and possibly CGS Gerasimov. As I noted before, they continue to find the time for petty personnel squabbles amid catastrophic losses for their military. /1

Tweet media one

33

343

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

6 months

The U.S. supplemental has passed and aid is on the way to Ukrainian frontlines. But months of delay for ammo and manpower have come at a cost. Problems cannot easily be undone, especially in Donetsk. A brief thread on what Russian decisions say about their summer plans. 🧵

16

307

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Shoigu calls Turkish and French counterparts today to discuss possible uncontrolled escalation in Ukraine and claims Ukraine has a “dirty bomb.” This reads like Russian false flag groundwork. Troubling that it’s happening at the defense minister level.

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

89

464

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Who is responsible for what in Kursk? FSB Border troops and Rosgvardia have responsibility for the border and ensuring its defense. For the military: Kursk is located in Moscow Military District, but the troops forward deployed IVO Ukraine belong to the Leningrad MD. /4

Tweet media one

6

105

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Based on conscription cycles, the Russian military has 3-4 months to convince conscripts in units right now to convert to contract service, so they can legally fight in Ukraine. Fall conscripts will be discharged on a rolling basis starting in September. (1/3)

25

282

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

10 months

Russia launched missiles from the DPRK up to 460km inside Ukraine, according to declassified intelligence (assessments for other launches are ongoing). A few thoughts. /1

@John_Hudson

John Hudson

10 months

On Thursday, White House spokesman John Kirby unveiled a map showing where Russia launched the North Korean missiles into Ukraine (near Zaporizhzhia). "We anticipate that Russia will use additional North Korean missiles to target Ukraine civilian infrastructure," Kirby said

Tweet media one

47

253

596

52

391

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

6 months

Ukraine recently hit a Russian training site with ATACMs. Russia says it destroyed HIMARs launchers that were moving into concealed positions. Russian recon-strike has been getting faster & more lethal in the last few months & will require TTP changes. I'll show you what I see./1

Tweet media one

@Aviation_Intel

Tyler Rogoway

@Aviation_Intel

6 months

ATACMS Volley Strikes Mass Of Russian Troops Training In Eastern Ukraine In a little more than 90 seconds, four ATACMS hit a concentration of Russian troops reportedly preparing to attack in the Kharkiv area. Story:

29

113

758

24

220

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

A thread about the Russian military and what to watch for in the days ahead. Developments are highly contingent, but there are a few big movements to look out for. /1

21

380

2K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Below, I discuss the critical period ahead for the war in Ukraine. Russia lays ground for annexing parts of Ukraine. However, there is, again, a mismatch between the Kremlin's goals and the exhausted forces it has remaining to deliver those goals (1/).

Tweet card media

Russia’s Repeat Failures

Moscow’s new strategy in Ukraine is just as bad as the old one.

www.foreignaffairs.com

32

348

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

8 months

If Ukrainian ammunition and manpower needs are not met, its battlefield position will continue to worsen before reaching a tipping point, possibly by this summer. This is no time for despair; it’s time for urgent action. My latest below⁩ and a brief 🧵

Tweet card media

Time Is Running Out in Ukraine

Kyiv cannot capitalize on Russian military weakness without U.S. aid.

www.foreignaffairs.com

57

392

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 month

Today, Putin increased the military’s size for the 3rd time since 2022. Can they sustain 1.5M postwar, at a time when the budget will be under pressure to procure equipment? Not without tradeoffs. See my new report for more on this and other tradeoffs👇

Tweet card media

Russian Military Reconstitution: 2030 Pathways and Prospects

As the Kremlin’s antagonism toward Ukraine and the West sharpens, it will be critically important for policymakers and warfighters to anticipate, monitor, and respond to Russia’s military reconstit...

carnegieendowment.org

55

355

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

..that this Russian Op Group was much weaker than the others: from May - Aug it had a major reorganization, a new commander, and attacked Kharkiv early. It's MOD units are now bogged down in Kharkiv and that offensive is not making progress. / 7

3

69

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

The entirety of the area was formerly the Western Military District (2010-24). Russia decided to split it up in March-April 2024 to cope with NATO expansion. It named two commanders: Lapin (LEMD) and Kozovlev (MOMD). / 5

@Archer83Able

Status-6 (Military & Conflict News)

6 months

🇷🇺 #Russia : Colonel General Aleksandr Lapin was appointed as the commander of the Leningrad Military District, while Colonel General Sergey Kuzovlev will become the commander of the Moscow Military District. The two military districts were reestablished in March 2024 by decree

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

3

20

78

4

81

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

The Operational Group of Forces North received a name change and upgrade about 1-2 weeks before it attacked Kharkiv in May. Prior to May it was a territorial defense group. So for the past 3 months it's been transitioning from a defensive to offensive orientation, meaning /6

1

66

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

How will Russian forces fare on the defensive? There are many factors in play. Even though they've constructed many layers of defensive positions and there are forces unaccounted for in recent weeks, the morale of Russian soldiers is variable, from tired to bad -it matters. 1/11

26

205

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

I raise this because Bortnikov and Gerasimov worked with this specific C2 arrangement in Chechnya. While today's situation is much different, they remember how to work together. Implementation is a different matter of course, but I note the experience. /10

4

78

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

FSB assets will be doing recon and trying to sweep up AFU teams, and interrogation. Russian forces are already taking small numbers of AFU teams as prisoner. Here I worry about what comes next because the FSB uses horrible torture methods. /14

8

112

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Russia has experience in creating a combined C2 structure that involves internal security agencies and the military from its experience in the second Chechen war. In the 90s, a joint command was established in what was then the North Caucasus MD HQ. /9

2

72

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

AFU invaded Russia despite 2 years of partial mobilization in Kursk, 10 years of legislation to make power ministries coordinate better, and a 2023 offer from Prigozhin to help guard the border (Shoigu rejected it). Bardak as usual. Now the reaction begins. /17

2

73

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

As I said for months, Kremlin announces a mobilization and immediately rattles the nuclear threat. 300k to be mobilized over time. They will not be able to do this well. The system structurally cannot. (1/2)

@shashj

Shashank Joshi

2 years

The piece to read on mobilisation, by @MassDara . "Even in a best-case scenario...mobilization would take at least several months to a year to confer an operational benefit."

32

412

1K

27

244

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

This AFU operation has successfully exploited seams of responsibility between the FSB, Rosgvardia and MOD. I suspect targeted leaks will emerge between MOD/GRU and FSB over who is responsible for intel and defense failures. /16

1

75

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

A few observations about Russian forces in recent weeks that I'm watching: improvements to targeting, continued assaults on Avdiivka, possible missile hoarding, and new loitering munitions. /1

13

221

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

In sum, his purpose for traveling to Ukraine and what was said and done on that trip is unknown. That the Russians took the risk of him being targeted suggests things aren’t going to plan to the point where it needed his correction or at least supervision for next steps. /end

24

72

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Rosgvardia's tasks will be to set up cordons, roadblocks, and other barriers. FSB border guards in the area have been taken prisoner already, to include conscripts , a very politically sensitive issue for Putin. /13

5

67

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

By now it should be clear to Belousov that not only were Shoigu's MOD financial books cooked, but the new laws, reorgs, and national defense plans on his 12-year watch to help security services to coordinate better w/the military remained stuck mostly at the conceptual stage. /1

Tweet media one

13

126

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

The Russians continue to experiment with their missile launches. Today’s strikes on Ukraine feature something new: missiles fired on a looping ballistic trajectory from the north. Likely a tactic to defeat air defenses; only a few systems can do this. /1.From Reuters

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

28

256

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

8 months

Delays in U.S. lethal aid have already negatively impacted the battlefield in Ukraine. These new graphics outline signposts of degrading combat conditions— where things stand now and what may come next. These will be updated as conditions change. @CarnegieEndow 1/4

Tweet media one

Tweet media two

25

375

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

I haven't seen a KTO headquarters established yet. Who could lead it? All military district commanders are dual hatted as operational group commanders and their forces are engaged. MOD options could be: Lapin, Kozovlev, Nikiforov, Gerasimov. /11

5

58

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

5 months

To put this number in perspective, Wagner lost more in Bakhmut than the Soviet Union did in a decade in Afghanistan. Yet I don’t think this makes a real ripple in Russian society; many view them as prisoners and soldiers of fortune,or can say they went there by their own choice.

@oivshina

Olga Ivshina

5 months

BBC and Mediazona have obtained and verified personal data of 19,547 Wagner mercenaries who died at Bakhmut. It allowed us to trace the entire history of the battle and the transformation of recruited prisoners from valuable personnel into “disposable material”

5

92

344

38

273

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Also: the remnants of Russia’s VDV were on the west bank. If that group is captured or KIA, it would be a blow to Russian capabilities, and a major achievement and psychological victory for UAF. If Russia’s most famous units were destroyed the news would spread fast (/8)

4

54

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

Russia's MChS (Ministry of Emergency Situations) is also now engaging with evacuations of towns. Russia is showing videos of some armor moving and eventually I would anticipate more helicopter, VKS assets. They will probably use artillery especially if the towns are emptied. /15

2

53

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

3 months

It's Lapin's AOR, but Op Group North is weak. The territory is Moscow MD, but Kozovlev and many of his forces are in eastern Ukraine. Nikiforov is Ground Forces commander and former op group commander, his name is circulating online. Gerasimov also given the stakes/12

3

60

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

6 months

First, Shoigu is moving into a respectable and powerful position because he is loyal, and he and Putin are friends. it’s a signal that Putin listens to chatter and understands that Shoigu needed to leave the MOD, where he was just tolerated by his ministry and other agencies. /2

5

74

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

10 months

One year ago today Gerasimov took back command. As an experiment, what specifically has he done well? Shoygu+ Kremlin secured foreign weapons. Surovikin's C2 structure + defense lines held, Teplinsky tightened them up. Chemezov turned crank on industry.... And Gerasimov? /1

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Today Shoygu and Gerasimov demoted Surovikin, and put Gerasimov in charge of the operation in Ukraine, demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing him with an incompetent one. This is a story that has it all: infighting, power struggles, jealousy /1

Tweet media one

207

947

5K

31

212

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

The Kherson retreat was different with more time to destroy kit on the way out rather than let it be a trophy. Some equipment/munitions were left behind in a functional state. Days ahead will reveal more but so far it does not seem like Kharkiv. (/4)

14

79

992

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Why is Russia leaving? Once Ukrainian forces damaged main routes to the west bank using HIMARs this summer, (for example the Antonovsky bridge) and Russian forces could not repair it, the west bank became an untenable military position to hold. (/7)

3

61

1K

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

In sum, Surovikin is shoring up Russia’s defensive positions with resources he has. Under his command the precision strike campaign is harmful to Ukraine. He may be relaying news accurately to Putin. Relaying disappointing news can be dangerous over there./end

31

78

997

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate says“the most trained and most capable Russian units are currently in Kherson. A large share of them are from airborne troops of the Russian Federation, Russian special operation forces and the naval infantry”

5

87

977

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

TL:DR: Russians demoted their "fixer" commander in favor of Gerasimov, who last year agreed to and oversaw a debacle invasion plan that resulted in the partial destruction of their army. What? /END

Tweet media one

16

91

975

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

I haven’t seen a huge spin-up yet, to explain the retreat in full detail. I imagine that the roll out will be coming to explain the loss of the city and perhaps holding now the eastern bank. I think they are doling out bad news in small doses. (/end)

29

35

968

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

How does this pertain to him visiting Ukraine? Suggests he probably needed to straighten things out and get a clear picture for himself. It doesn’t speak highly of trust and clear coms up and down the chain and that’s a larger discussion /5

3

56

950

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

By accounts of local Ukrainian soldiers in the area, the Russian grouping on the west bank has not been considered a motley crew. It was considered an experienced and exhausted force with prepared positions (/3)

3

37

937

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Thanks @OAJonsson — big Russian decree just dropped. To put this number into context— the Kremlin is authorizing adding an entire extra draft cycle’s worth of conscripts here— OR roughly half of their pre-war contractniki…(1/4)

@Liveuamap

Liveuamap

2 years

Putin signed a decree to increase number of servicemen in Armed Forces of Russia to 1.15 million(adding 137000)

Tweet media one

98

273

631

52

330

925

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

1 year

A photo of Surovikin and his wife has emerged. A thread on the choppy information about him, which is more telling, and some implications for the state of Russian military leadership and the war effort. /1

Tweet media one

27

171

954

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Russian forces have been slowly leaving over the last few weeks by ferry and across pontoon bridges to the east side of the Dnipro river. UAF is targeting them for example here near the Antonovsky bridge (/10)

@Osinttechnical

OSINTtechnical

@Osinttechnical

2 years

Ukrainian HIMARS strike on the Russian pontoon crossing over the Dnipro next to the Antonivskyi Bridge

98

588

6K

3

54

926

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

6 months

Belousov has no military experience at all or background in the military. He’s an economist. This will raise questions within the military who will fear a repeat of serdyukov. So I anticipate some unformed officer favorites appointed to leadership positions to balance this. /3

3

65

949

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Watching this announcement, having watched these men for many years, I was left with the thought that, sometimes an organization is so broken that it cannot fix itself. It’s turning away from the solutions and resolutions that it previously identified and is looking backward.

32

84

925

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

One member of Ukraine’s territorial defense noted Russian forces on the west bank had prepared dense defensive positions, and noting “The paratroopers fight honestly. They fight well,” (/5)

Tweet card media

Where Russian Fire Pours Down, His Men Sneak Forward (Published 2022)

The commander of a Ukrainian reconnaissance unit spearheading the counterattack in the southern region of Kherson explained how his team helped breach defenses he described as frighteningly dense.

www.nytimes.com

3

46

893

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

But also he is a field commander by experience - he prefers to see the terrain and how things look for himself for this operation given the forces committed. He reportedly visited troops before this stated. He’s there because it’s his style AND because things aren’t going well /6

4

51

884

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

So Russia's choices were to stay on the west bank and be possibly encircled or destroyed, or try to conduct a controlled withdrawal. @WarintheFuture has an excellent thread about how difficult an egress under fire is, here:

@WarintheFuture

Mick Ryan, AM

@WarintheFuture

2 years

In the last 48 hours, reports have emerged of a potential Russian withdrawal from its Dnipro west bank defensive positions. While this may fit General Surovikin’s overall strategy for #Ukraine , it will be difficult to execute successfully. 1/24 🧵

Tweet media one

213

2K

11K

3

49

903

@MassDara

Dara Massicot

2 years

Another Ukrainian soldier says: “The Russians have very good, well-prepared positions in this area so it’s difficult to push them out,” (/6)

Tweet card media

Why Putin will fight for Kherson: Fresh water and land bridge to Crimea

Soldiers in southern Ukraine’s Kherson region are readying for what may become the biggest battle of the war.

www.washingtonpost.com

4

47

880