Only in Cambridge: I’m stuck in traffic on the exit from the Pike and a biotech CEO pulls up next to me, rolls window down and says “Hey Bruce, we’ve got great NHP efficacy data... can’t wait to show you”... Made my commute far less painful! This ecosystem never ceases to amaze
Biotech is just so small.
$FB lost $200B yesterday due to metaverse investing... which is more than the combined pre-money valuations of the 360+ biotech IPOs since 2015.
Trying to make a virtual world vs trying to make real medicines. Both are challenging, it seems.
Waiving IP has consequences... slippery slope... now they say “do insulin next”?
Let’s do PD1s after that because cancer is a global crisis...
Then let’s do Alzheimer’s..
Oh wait, we have no drugs for AD yet... and nor will we if there are no patents or reward for innovating
Personal Reflection: Empathy In The Workplace
Life isn't always easy, and many of us have a lot going on underneath the facade, but its the emotional connectedness with others that makes all the difference. To those that have been there for me, thx you
The Game Isn’t Worth The Candle: Reflections On The JPM Healthcare Conference. More concerned than ever about the value of the JPM week and what it says about our industry.
#JPM19
#JPMHC19
In mild COVID-19 patients, placebo was similarly effective to HCQ in viral clearance.
Randomized open label clinical trial (NCT04261517): in 30 mild patients, 93% cleared virus w/in 7 days on placebo (vs 87% with HCQ). h/t Umer Raffat at EvercoreISI
Atlas Venture 2021 Year In Review
Here's our "state of the industry" talk (that we just shared with our LP's at our Annual Meeting) exploring the macro issues & broader sector, diving into the biotech VC ecosystem, and providing a brief update on Atlas.
A Molecular Biologist’s Advice For Life.
Having just turned 50, I’ve been reflecting on my first half-century… my passion for science as a lens for looking at the world has been a thread that has run throughout.
Here are 12 pieces of advice for college & early career STEM
Surprising stat:
>50% of biotech's that IPO'd between 2000-2013 have had at least one product approved. 8% of those IPOs actually got 2 products approved.
(Thx to Josh Schimmer at Evercore ISI)
Here’s the Atlas Venture 2022 Year In Review.
This year, given the 2+ year rollercoaster in the mkts, we start with a deep dive into both the public and private
#biotech
capital markets, then to the industry overall, closing with an update on Atlas
Venturing A Perspective On The Drug Pricing Debate.
I've been largely quiet on this topic, but couldn't any longer. First principles of investin and what it means for pricing. Observations on the US system. And a few suggestions for policy emphasis.
The Biotech Paradox of 2020: A Year In Review
The striking dichotomy of simultaneously experiencing agonizing tragedy alongside buoyant optimism.
Surprisingly, in many ways 2020 was actually the best year ever for biotech.
It took avg of 4.1 years in drug discovery in 1998. It takes 4.1 years now, nearly 20 years later (accdg to KMR). I'm both frustrated and puzzled by this - where's the "big impact" of massive increases in computational power on shortening drug discovery cycle times?
This post exploded last night.
Clarification: Insulin itself is generic. Out of pocket insulin costs are the issue, not because of IP, but insurance/PBM system failure
Takehome: sentiment that you can solve drug availability/access by waiving IP is both wrong & anti-innovation
Waiving IP has consequences... slippery slope... now they say “do insulin next”?
Let’s do PD1s after that because cancer is a global crisis...
Then let’s do Alzheimer’s..
Oh wait, we have no drugs for AD yet... and nor will we if there are no patents or reward for innovating
10 years ago this month I started the LifeSciVC blog.
Since March 2011, we’ve had 450 blog posts, 2M+ unique pageviews, and a broad range of “From The Trenches” perspectives from executives in our portfolio.
Reflections on the past/future of the LifeSciVC media platform: 1/x
Takeda Acquires Nimbus’ Tyk2 Autoimmune Program for up to $6B
Congrats to
@JebKeiper
& the
@NimbusTx
team!
Here's a blog on the Nimbus' journey - more to come in Chapter 3!
Looking fwd to watching 4858's continued success in Takeda's capable hands
Q: If reducing amyloid is approvable, why wouldn't $MRK revive verubecestat (BACE) for Accelerated Approval after it's "failed" Ph 3 studies? Showed striking amyloid reductions (60-80%), but no real cognitive benefit. How is that diff than Adu? This new precedent opens up path?
So many biotechs have been beaten down as the $XBI got crushed, 100s have negative EV's, mkt caps sub $100M and share prices in penny stock land...
What are the best examples of
#biotech
companies that resurrected themselves?
Sharing these to inspire some hopeful optimism :)
Americans spent $15B during COVID on retail coffee.
We spent over $8B on whiskey and tequila.
As a country, we spent way less than that on COVID vaccines.
In addition to saving countless lives, vaccines have been incredibly good value to society...
If I get COVID, I really want the drug called Regeneron... It's a great drug... Makes you feel better today than you did 3 days ago. I've heard it does great things to great people in this great country of America. More Regeneron for everybody in the pandemic!
Sharing our "Year In Review": Annual Talk On Macro, Biotech, and Atlas.
A data-rich, whirlwind tour thru a bunch of pharma and biotech topics over about 45 min. Cheat sheet with timestamps included.
Huge
#biotech
rally since mid-June, $XBI up 35%+
Appears to be mostly a melt-up driven by short covering (analysis from Torreya Partners): Biggest gainers have had highest short interest.
So while it’s good to see positive gains, we need more fundamental buyers & fund flows
The aggregate enterprise value of the biotech sector is now down 64% since Feb 8, 2021 peak.
The sector is trading well below where it was when the COVID hit. So much for Biopharma saving the world!
(Thx to Torreya).
Two major clinical milestones for new modalities in the past few days:
The 1st in vivo CRISPR gene editing in TTR with 96% serum reductions by $NTLA
The 1st placebo-controlled, healthy volunteer TPD study showing dose response to 90% target degradation by $KYMR
1/n
Alzheimer’s is a horrible disease. Today a drug was approved that reduces amyloid. I wish there was more confidence that the drug really works on clinically meaningful endpoints, as these patients and families are desperate.
2023 is almost over... we just finished our Annual Mtg with our LP's and our Atlas Retreat with industry leaders... so it's time to share.
Here's our Atlas Venture 2023 "Year In Review"
#Biotech
@Atlasventure
Just b/c Big Pharma externally sources >50% of their new programs doesn't mean they aren't investing in innovation.. R&D is team sport. W/o them as downstream partners for young biotechs, we'd b unable 2 advance drugs to mkt. They r essential players in the innovation ecosystem
Opinion: Large pharmaceutical companies say that legislation in Congress to lower the cost of prescription drugs will hinder innovation. But our analysis shows they don't do much innovation.
Biotech venture funding beats to a different drummer than most VC sectors. It's not sales metrics, it's experimental data around potential medicines.
As long as programs advance to the key inflection points (R&D execution!) - data is the ultimate currency of progress & value
The Creation Of Biotech Startups: Evolution Not Revolution
A response with historical context and a few counterpoints to the "biotech-should-be-more-like tech'' venture creation pieces by
@ycombinator
's
@snowmaker
and
@a16z
's
@JorgeCondeBio
.
Today we should celebrate the perseverance of $VRTX in translating the incredible human genetics of Nav 1.8 for pain into a drug with Phaase 3 data ready for approval. The commercial market can debate the differentiation and merits vs existing generics, but it should be a huge
Surprisingly unusual in biotech: $BGNE doesn't use CROs in clinical developmenmt
With 3000 internal clin ops folks, it believes their in-house approach is 30% cheaper and 30% faster (enrollment and PoC) than industry benchmarks
(thx to Andrew Berens at Leerink)
Atlas loves to back first-time CEOs.
Of 45 CEOs in our current active portfolio, 71% of them have never done it before. Similar percentage in our 18 public biotech companies.
Taking bets on people by backing first-time CEOs is a huge part of our business
Our 2019 Year In Review: Macro, Biotech, and Atlas.
Macro: History may not repeat itself but it does rhyme.
#Biotech
: Capital, Collaboration, Community, Culture
Atlas: our evolution, portfolio, and team.
@atlasventure
Moderna $MRNA has a market cap today of $93B - that's more than the combined valuations of the last 86 biotech IPOs combined. Wow.
Helping to bring a global pandemic to an end - incredible value to patients, investors, and the world
It’s been a crazy long week... market meltdown around COVID, executing on full WFH distancing, crisis mgt in portfolio... Reflecting on the craziness, I’m looking forward to having a Quarantini tonight.
Big Carmot Therapeutics M&A today.
Huge kudos to The Column Group. First institutional investor in the deal (bought 60% for $2M in 2012) to build fragment-based drug discovery platform. Invested actively over next 11 yrs
TCG owned 40% today or $1.2B+... huge win for them
The response to my post on empathy today has blown me away. Most read blog post ever. Thank you to the hundreds of people who reached out to me to share life stories & challenges, so wonderfully inspiring & emotional. We're all in this world together, and only once.
#Empathy
Personal Reflection: Empathy In The Workplace
Life isn't always easy, and many of us have a lot going on underneath the facade, but its the emotional connectedness with others that makes all the difference. To those that have been there for me, thx you
Taking a break from biotech... Super proud of my Mom - she's competing in the USTA Super Senior National Tennis Championship in Arizona at 79 years old this week! Way to go!
While biotech has been challenging, there’s still much to be thankful for - esp the great bio community dedicated to “doing well by doing good” bringing Rx's to patients. Feel so very fortunate to work in this industry. Wishes of health, happiness, and gratitude for Thanksgiving.
Record-Breaking Biotech Funding Tsunami Of 1H2020
Largest amount of quarterly VC funding ever.
Largest amount raised in biotech IPOs in a quarter.
Largest total equity capital raised in a quarter.
Hopefully we will make new drugs with it!
My
#JPM20
agenda...
...
...
... and the humming sound of chairlifts.
JOMO [Joy of...]
Good luck to all of you who are attending. It's a gr8 meeting if you are there for the right reasons: do the deals, court the investors, make it happen! Hopefully it's productive for you!
Biotech VC continues apace: at >$1.9B, Feb 2022 was the 2nd highest Feb ever in terms of private biotech VC funding in US, trailing only Feb 2021.
While public mkts are very challenging, the long cycle of VC funding for innovation appears more resilient, at least for now
Biotech is boomin'. Four IPOs last week... raised $900M... all traded well after their opening. Books were well covered, highly concentrated into top 10-20 blue chip buyers - and all were upsized from their initial filings. $LEGN $PLRX $CALT $AMTI
I was just talking to my 82-yr old parents about
#poliovirus
. How scared families were during early 50s epidemic, about getting it at summer swimming pools. R0 ~6 (super infectious) & transmitted via contiminated water, lots of fear. Knew folks being put in iron lungs to breath
On this day 65 years ago the first
#poliovirus
vaccine was licensed in US after an historic clinical trial in 1.8 million children. Do you think we will have similar headlines for
#SARSCoV2
vaccine in 2021? Salk inactivated polio vaccine is still in use today!
#virology
#history
Out of pocket drug costs are the issue, caused by a broken insurance/formulary system.
Fact: Net insulin prices back to Rx co’s have been falling for yrs in US.
The gross-to-net price bubble distorts the discussion.
Pharma is an easy target, but lazy & wrong
@BernieSanders
Cost to manufacture 1 vial of insulin: Around $6
Cost of 1 vial of insulin for consumers:
🇫🇷: $9
🇩🇪: $11
🇯🇵: $14
🇦🇺: $7
🇬🇧: $7
🇨🇦: $12
🇺🇸: $98
The American people should not be forced to pay the highest prices on the planet for prescription drugs.
Mega-deal $BMY & $CELG: good news for more big cap M&A speculation, but bad news for private & small-cap names as consolidation removes 1 of the most active buyers/deal-makers. These two bid against each other in many deals in past few years, and that's no longer going to happen
$XBI has just witnessed the best 2-month stretch EVER for the sector
It has seen 8 consecutive weeks of gains, up +14% in Nov and +18% more in Dec, or 39% off the Oct lows.
Fed rates, M&A boom, good data, cash recycling - all conspiring.
thx to Jack Bannister at Leerink
Very proud to be a part of this incredible team at Atlas. Closed our 2nd Opportunity Fund at the hard cap of $300M to support building & scaling our portfolio. Onward & upward!
Great
@atlasventure
holiday party last night! Celebrating 25 years of biotech investing with the broader Atlas family. Had to throw on the first “suit and tie” that I’ve worn in ages as a matching pair with my wife - was good fun. Happy holidays to all!
Another sad impact of
#COVID19
"These Kids With Rare Genetic Diseases Were Part Of Research Into New Treatments. The Coronavirus Has Stopped All Of It."
via
@dvergano
"Pharmacology: The Anchor for Nearly Every Diligence"
Part 2 blog from Atlas'
@AimeeRaleigh13
and entrepreneur Haojing Rong, covering:
- Pharmacokinetics
- Pharmacodynamics
- Efficacy
- Common pitfalls
Twitter stock dropped 21% on Friday, losing ~$8B in market cap...
Equal to all of $ proceeds raised by the last 40 or so Biotech IPOs combined... in the midst of biggest biotech IPO boom ever...
Biotech is buzzing, but it remains very small piece of the equity markets vs tech
This rpt from a "friend" of innovative biotech: w/ friends like this, who needs enemies! So many errors in here.
Striking lack of insight into how biopharma ecosystem works.
M&A promotes innovation by more efficiently allocating capital, talent & ideas:
Today, our office released a bombshell report exposing the devastating effects of Big Pharma’s mergers and acquisitions. Featuring exclusive interviews with former Immunex, and later Amgen employees, our report shows how consolidation curbs innovation at the expense of patients.
Novel targets aren’t often easy to drug. After running a truly gold standard discovery campaign, and advancing the science around Gasdermins, we’ve decided to shut down
@QuenchBio
. In the thread below, CEO
@SamTruex
closes the book on this “successful failure”...
Five Macro Risks To Biotech Coming Out of Washington:
- Drug pricing
- FTC's view of M&A
- FDA stance
- Interest rates
- Tax Policy
Key question is how will these resolve & how much the market has already priced in regarding expectations around them.
"Deconstructing the Diligence Process: An Approach to Vetting New Product Theses"
Atlas'
@AimeeRaleigh13
opines in a fantastic new blog covering:
- Target Validation
- Directionality and Druggability
- Pharmacology
- Path to PoC
- Product Opportunity
FTC vs Sanofi/Maze: very bad precedent for gov't overreach. And bad in general for patients in all disease areas
FTC continues to create friction in the deal mkt that is so vital to our collaborative biotech ecosystem reliant on external innovation
Single best twitter follow:
@AndyBiotech
. Content and data-rich, biotech-focused, very high signal-to-noise (unlike most). Awesome.
@AndyBiotech
Thank you for what you do.
"Immuno-Oncology: The Comeback Kid." - perspective on the progress in I-O from
@hotspotthera
's CDO Tim Reilly and CEO Jonathan Montagu, in the latest From The Trenches blog post.
A must read on a parallel pandemic: DKE-19
“Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE) is a phenomenon where people lack the ability to understand their lack of ability.”
DKE-19 is a virulent misinformation virus that’s exploding
$CERE acquisition by $ABBV for $8.7B
Perhaps the best bio SPAC exit ever: up 450% since July 2020 deal with Perceptive's SPAC.
Raised $2B in equity since inception
Spun out of $PFE by Bain Capital in 2018
Congrats Ron Renaud and the team
@biotech1969
!
$VKTX's obesity data is impressive and it's now a $7B+ market cap. Great case study in R&D success.
But it's also a great case study in dilution.
Today its a $7B+ mkt cap at $72/share.
In 2015, Viking's IPO raised $24M at $8/share, with a post-money of ~$75M
Mkt cap
The market for C-level talent for biotech startups is super tight right now (e.g., CFOs with ECM cred, CBOs with sellside deal sheets, CSOs who gone A to Z in drug discovery, CMOs who r translationally-savvy). Probably the biggest constraint on new venture creation and scaling.
In 2010, Top 20 drugs in US treated 45M patients.
In 2020, Top 20 only treated 9M patients
But revenues up 25% because of prices (more expensive rarer/lower prevalence diseases )
McKinsey at
#AtlasVentureRetreat
What a journey at LLY... Wow...
$LLY adds like $75B this morning on GLP1 MACE data.
In Aug 2013, stock was ~$50... now >$500.
10x in a decade. Not your typical large cap pharma stock
Two days ago I put out a blog on
#JPM19
that i wrote quickly on a flight and wasn’t even sure people would read. Apparently it struck a chord & went viral. Most read & commented on blog I’ve ever written, out of 300+ posts... So hard to predict these things.
When a biotech company says its lead program is “ready for Phase 1” but hasn’t yet filed an IND, doesn’t that mean it’s in what most of us call the Preclinical Development phase?
J&J is shelling out $850 million to buy Proteologix, getting hold of a young roster of bispecific immunology meds including a phase 1-ready asset that targets TSLP. $JNJ
Recycling of M&A capital is important for refueling younger biotech's: $LLY's $LOXO acquisition ($8B) returns more cash to investors than was raised by all 60 biotech IPOs in 2018 ($7.1B).
#JPM19
$XBI
Very proud Dad moment today: my daughter Ashley crushed 66K vertical feet over 40 miles on her snowboard at Loon Mtn... breaking my record... kind of insane. Love it.
#Snowboard
#SkiNH
#SkiTheEast
@loonmtn
Monday AM reflection: spent the wknd skiing w/ 2 boys w/ Duchenne, carving up the slopes together. For those working on DMD cures, keep at it: these boys need you! More broadly, we need all of you to conquer the medical mountains ahead by staying focused on patients!
#JPM20
Today we said goodbye to JB, taken from us far too soon, even for DMD. His passion for life was so inspiring. He changed my life, and many others, in such a positive wonderful way. Rest in peace, buddy.
Biotech’s January Chill: Big Drop In New Startups.
January 2022 saw the lowest number of new first round financings (new startups) in over a decade
Includes discussion of the talent constraint on startup, including the debate of too many vs too few co's
Biotech Fund Flows: Largest week of fund inflows in ~16 months. And 3rd consecutive positive week for the sector.
#biotech
(thx Piper Sandler for sharing metrics from Lipper/AMG Data Services)
Strategic Planning In Biotech During A Pandemic Crisis.
This is the Goldilocks moment for many biotechs: not too hot and not too cold. Preserving near term optionality while planning for and adapting to the longer term scenarios.
A 19-year journey at $MNTA. Founded in '01, seeded by
@polarisvc
at $1/share,
@atlasventure
led B in '03 at $2.95, IPO'd at $6.50 in '04, bought by J&J at $52.50. Story changed over yrs from Enox to FcRN. Nipocalimab now looks like a great drug, thx to persistence of the team!
Lots of speculation that after 12 month downdraft in $XBI that private mkt would "slow-down"...
As of mid-Feb, 1Q22 is tracking to be the biggest Q for VC funding in
#biotech
of all time
Over $7B in first 6 wks. Needs to get >$11B for trophy; might not, but still huge funding
Great piece,
@John_LaMattina
Hidden gem: healthcare provider giving a few minute vaccine injection (& paperwork) gets paid $80 for the two visits, while the vaccine innovator gets $39. That's a striking contrast when you think of where the actual "value" is...
Sadly, this tweet didn’t age well…
Looks like a fear-driven “run on the bank” has destroyed a once great financial institution…. FDIC Receivership wasn’t fathomable only a few days ago….
Took 40 years to build a great brand, 48 hrs to wipe it out.
💯 agree with Mark
Take a deep breath.
@SVB_Financial
is a great long term partner for the startup ecosystem.
Any financial risk is way oversold here, real risk is contagion.
Reality: SVB has liquidity, passes stress tests, has a low loan to capital ratio. Stay calm.
Fundraising by VCs was very strong in 2023, raising $19B for health-related funds. In past three years, ~$70B in new funds were raised.
That's a TON of "dry powder" that will get put to work into startups over the next 2-5 years
#SVBHealthcare
@SiliconVlyBank
#biotech
Payroll coming next week, many startups have funds locked up with SVB FDIC
VCs are going to need to bridge with simple loans to cover near-term working capital
Syndicates need to fully participate in helping here. Big reputation blackmark for those investors that don’t step up
In Defense Of Early Stage Biotech IPOs
An open permissive IPO mkt, and the flow of capital that enables it, has been a huge positive for the
#biotech
sector & for advancing innovation, and is not what caused the current $XBI pullback
Warning: long read
Surprising Resilience Of Private VC-Backed Biotech Markets
2022 is off to fastest start for VC financings than every year except '21
Over $6B has been invested in 2Q 2022 far more than 2Q in all but 2020-'21
June 2022 was also huge, 2nd biggest ever
Biotech Startups And The Hard Truth Of Innovation. A practitioner's (long-winded) reflections on Gary Pisano's excellent article on innovative cultures.
Melee in the biotech capital markets: 10 Biotech IPOs are supposed to price this week! $SANA, $IMCR, $BOLT, $VOR, $PHVS, $SNSE, $TERN, $LABP, $ANGN, $EVAX
1st week in Feb is usually a busy week (2 wks after JPM, b4 financials go stale), but this is crazy busy! Raising $1.5B+
The joy of being a seed investor: the hard work of nurturing the winners, while eliminating the weeds, converts into a rewarding harvest - real pharm to table! Plus having one’s hands in the earth is truly therapeutic.