In our latest,
@HeshamAlghannam
and I argue that the regional trend of pivoting towards Asia has become a more attractive option in light of the War on Gaza--to counter both US hegemony and its pro-Israeli biases.
Trump violates JCPOA+2231+imposes max pressure
EU to IR: we are committed but can’t do much!
Biden: we’ll return t JCPOA b/c Trump’s policy failed
EU to IR: You have t agree t what you refused under max pressure!
Reasons for EU’s global irrelevance are not far from Brussels!
Iran now hosts 1 out of every 10 Afghans!
400,000 Afghans have fled the country to Iran after the Taliban takeover, which is 3 times the number airlifted by US & its allies out of Kabul.
Iran: let’s talk
KSA: get out of our region first
Iran: it’s our region too
KSA: you’re intervening
Iran: but it’s you bombing Yemen
KSA: it’s against you
Iran: by killing Yemenis?
KSA: it’s because of you
Iran: K, lets talk and solve this together
KSA: get out first!
Today, Iran holds the moral high ground because of its strategic patience and commitment to the nuclear deal, while the international community continues to reject Trump's aggressive posturing. My latest
@AJEnglish
It’s my pleasure to announce that the article Payam Mohseni, director of
@WCFIAShiism
and I coauthored on Iran’s Syria strategy has made it to
@IAJournal_CH
shortlist of Early Career Prize!
ANNOUNCEMENT 🥳
We've just published the shortlist for our annual Early Career Prize, as selected by members of our editorial board.
Congratulations to the shortlisted authors!
My thoughts for
@AlMonitor
, How Iran is moving to bridge gaps with Turkey in northern Syria to deal with common threats arising east of Euphrates
Will Iran, Turkey jointly confront US influence east of the Euphrates? via
@AlMonitor
Told
@peterson__scott
that Iran’s strategy has shifted from strategic patience to escalation-for-escalation because it cannot afford to live in a situation of strategic stalemate that the Trump administration is trying to box it in.
@csmonitor
Iran’s view of a Biden return to JCPOA:
If you re-commit to international law (Res. 2231) Iran will restore its JCPOA limits
But if you want to rejoin the JCPOA, you need to regain trust by committing to compensation and forgoing parts of your previous JCPOA privileges
No
@SecPompeo
, when one of the main founders of the U.N. turns to unilateralism and tries to bully others into its dictates, it isolates itself. Your unilateral conduct failed miserably. You can live with it and change course or continue down the failures lane!
The
@UN
Security Council failed today to hold Iran accountable. It enabled the world’s top state sponsor of terrorism to buy and sell deadly weapons and ignored the demands of countries in the Middle East. America will continue to work to correct this mistake.
US: we wanna meet!
Iran: but we’re meeting on JCPOA
US: we’re widrawing from JCPOA to meet
Iran: you need to get back if talks are important to you
US: we’re imposing maximum pressure to meet
Iran: no, but let’s exchange prisoners
US: OK, let’s meet on that!
Absurd!
A recap:
Israel hits a consulate-defying IL
IR demands UNSC response-doesnt get any
IR tries trading the attack for a Gaza ceasefire-turned down
IR hits Israel & despite advance warning & the use of low-tech equipment, some get through!
Imagine a surprise high-tech attack
Assassins showcase their diminishing strategic “options” from “all on the table” to an act of terror!
Terrorism has little-to-no effect on regional balance of power, but it will keep assassins on their toes awaiting the payback!
US Middle East policy moved from authoritarian “Stability” to authoritarian “Peace.”
Middle Eastern people had no place in the first, which produced the Arab Spring & many failed states.
They now have no choice in the latter & it’s not hard to imagine what this might produce!
قلت للمراسل: ما قام به الفريق الإيراني في لاهاي “هو جزء من سیاسة طهران لإحراج الولایات المتحدة وتصعیب سیاستها الهادفة إلى عزل إيران دولیا�� والضغط علیها إقلیمیاً
Just like the August 1953 coup against Iran’s democratically elected government of Mohammad Mosadeq, January 2020 will not fade away from Iranian’s collective memory. My latest
@iramcenter
Establishing credibility is basic to uphold deterrence, and for that one needs to:
1. Issue conditional threats;
2. Demonstrate a prospect of punishment.
US violates JCPOA
EU: we r committed
US imposes MaxPres
EU t IR: can’t do much
US assassinates Gen. Sulaimani
EU: silence
Biden: les get back t JCPOA
EU: Tears of joy
US t IR: comply/don’t expect sancs relief
EU t IR: Vienna is yr last chance!
Dear EU, get a life!
Trump’s Iran policy:
Violate JCPOA to have a better deal!
FAILED
Exert maximum pressure to have them agree!
FAILED
Assassinate top official to force them to agree!
FAILED+Iranians rally around the flag unprecedentedly since 1979
Failure after failure with no alternative!
On the war on Gazans:
1. Israelis cannot erase history. No matter how hard they try, they won’t cover up decades of occupation & won't be able to convince the world that history started on October 7. The harder they try, the less convincing they become & the more this backfires
In our latest journal article we argue that Tehran has developed a new containment strategy in response to perceived threats posed by an increasingly pro-active Saudi Arabia post-Arab Spring, marking a substantive shift from its previous detente policy.
On 🇸🇦-🇮🇷 deal timing/venue
In a tense time vs. West/Israel, Raisi’s 2 FP priorities Looking Eastward & Neighborhood Policy align neatly together in a deal that
Derails Israeli normal. efforts with 🇸🇦
Strengthens 🇮🇷 hands vs. West
Elevates 🇨🇳 role in ME vs. 🇺🇸 retrenchment
Israel's incremental escalation against Iran hit a dead-end
IR retaliation forces Tel Aviv to revise its strategy—retreating back to the grey-zone
IR is not seeking direct conflict & for that it:
1. won't tolerate attacks on its assets
2. won't hesitate to retaliate directly
Attacking Yemen
Doesn't stabilize the Red Sea. An escalatory tit-for-tat looms large
Doesn't downgrade Ansarallah's capabilities-7 years of war couldn't
Doesn't curtail the possibility of a regional conflict-It's already increased
ME stability starts in Gaza not in Yemen.
Non-western countries are less open to adhering to Washington’s rules for the game, and this inclination will further consolidate intra-regional relationships—especially as key actors such as Iran and Saudi Arabia find more similarities than differences.
احتمال دوم ادامه روند تحکیم قدرت مبس نه در قالب الیگارشی آلسعود بلکه کاملا فردی است ۵ سال اقدامات مبس در مورد آلسعود/قدرتمندان این هدف را دنبال کرده. وقتی خاشقچی/نیوم/تحول اقتصادی و... مشروعیتزدا میشود ابزار سرکوب اطاعت را به همه تحمیل میکند چه امیر احمد باشد چه سلمان العوده
Trump: we will leave Iraq if they don’t want us
Iraqi MPs: you need to go
Iraqi PM: you have to go
Iraqi people: largest rally in support of MPs vote and PM call
US: actually... we are staying, and we’re building three more bases!
For years Israelis tried to trick Iran into a confrontation in Syria, and Iran’s focus on its own priorities encouraged them to move closer hitting Iraqi targets and now Iranian ones.
What they need to know is that what goes around comes around.
It’s a strategic culture
Attacking Yemen
Doesn't stabilize the Red Sea. An escalatory tit-for-tat looms large
Doesn't downgrade Ansarallah's capabilities-7 years of war couldn't
Doesn't curtail the possibility of a regional conflict-It's already increased
ME stability starts in Gaza not in Yemen.
بدون این اقدامات احتمال تحرک داخلی علیه مبس بیشتر میشود یا خود چنین میاندیشد. با یا بدون ملک سلمان این اقدامات به صورت دورهای تکرار خواهد شد. انتقال از نظام الیگارشیک به استبداد فردی مستلزم چنین بگیر و ببندهایی است. در تفسیر اقدامات مبس نباید صدام اوایل دهه ۱۹۸۰ را فراموش کرد!
احتمال دوم ادامه روند تحکیم قدرت مبس نه در قالب الیگارشی آلسعود بلکه کاملا فردی است ۵ سال اقدامات مبس در مورد آلسعود/قدرتمندان این هدف را دنبال کرده. وقتی خاشقچی/نیوم/تحول اقتصادی و... مشروعیتزدا میشود ابزار سرکوب اطاعت را به همه تحمیل میکند چه امیر احمد باشد چه سلمان العوده
Since 2013,
#Riyadh
and
#AbuDhabi
provided a handful of reasons for many actors in this region not join their fight against
#Tehran
, practically cornering themselves. Why would many, both capable and marginalized, actors like to see the twin (+
#TelAviv
) regionally prevalent?
Still they’re so effective and lethal. Iraqis suffered more deaths under US sanctions during the 1990s than in the 8-year-war with Iran. I’d argue that sanctions r way more effective killers than chemical weapons. They kill more and get less public attention than chemicals.
They obviously learned nothing from the Trump policy and it’s repercussions. Nevertheless, war-mongers have another calculus that has nothing to do with “boosting the chances of nuclear diplomacy.”
Ex-officials urge Biden: ‘Restore Iran’s fear’ to boost chances of nuclear diplomacy via
@timesofisraelOur
point was to give diplomacy a chance to succeed, Iran’s leaders must fear the consequences of staying on their current path. They lack that fear now.
@abdalkaderfaeez
معلوماتي عن المفاوضات أن کل ما تقدمه ايران في المقابل هو التراجع عن خطواتها لتقليص الإلتزام بالإتفاق النووي. أما عن إعادة التفاوض حول بنوده خاصة تلک المعروفة بغروب الشمس، ففي ذلک شرعنة دولية لنهج ترمب ضد الإتفاق وإعادة تأطيره حسب المطلوب أمريکيا، ولذلک ترفض طهران مبدئيا الخوض فيه
The break down of Iraq’s sectarian loyalties is not happening at the expense of Iranian influence. This is a huge achievement for Tehran.
My latest thoughts for
@AJEnglish
:
How Iran won a face-off with the US in Iraq
@AJEnglish
Demanding the removal of sanctions imposed in violation of the JCPOA is not “ playing hardball” but the only way to revive it. The JCPOA + sanctions is the paradoxical hardball play. It’s an easy story: you can’t have it both ways!
ثقة إيران بقدراتها العسكرية غير التقليدية وغير المقارنة عالية جدا. وعلی جانب آخر، تثق واشنطن بقدراتها في ترکيع وإجبار ايران. وفي الروايتين الواثقتين تبرز أخطار واحتمالات الحسابات الخاطئة التي قد تؤدي بالطرفين إلی حرب لا يريدها أي منهما
via
@alqabas
Generally I don’t think Iran will shift its Saudi policy, but the dilemma of respond which escalates/not respond which encourages more attacks exists. Experience says an attack on Iranian soil won’t go unanswered because it’ll work against Iran’s regional deterrence strategy
Those who plan and carry out these attacks, are those hardline elements who wish to escalate the tensions between the two sides. Hope the moderate forces on both sides will resort to dialogue rather than escalation.
US Media 101:
An anti-US/West rally is “tiny” no matter how big and “radical” no matter how peaceful > Downplay as much as possible!
An anti-corruption/mismanagement rally is “huge” “pro-West” and “anti-US-foes” no matter how irrelevant this is > Inflate as much as possible!
Fighting mismanagement/corruption & enhancing social services/rebuilding Iraqi infrastructure were
@mohamedshia
's main points
@hewariraq
. In line with his inward-looking/outside-balancing approach, foreign policy is intentionally marginalized & economic development takes the lead
شروط خليجية للحوار مع إيران: 1 وقف لغة التهديد 2 وقف تدخلاتها بشؤون المنطقة 3 انهاء احتلالها لجزر الإمارات 4 وقف برنامجها النووي والصاروخي 5 وقف دعمها لمليشيات إرهابية 6 وقف استخدام اسم الخليج الفارسي. في حال موافقة إيران على هذه الشروط يمكنها الاتصال بالرياض أو الرمز الدولي 971
It took Saudi Arabia a lot of time and pain to re-establish contacts with Tehran beyond hajj. If successful, this can restore bilateral ties, and eventually end the war on Yemen. Better late than never!
عندما تبيع النخب الحاکمة إستقلالها، يتعامل معها الجميع بمنطق تابع لا رأي له. وهذا محور رؤية ترمب و”حمايته” إياکم. وهو حال الدول المفتقرة لرؤية مستقلة لبناء مستقبل شعوبها والذليلة أمام الجميع إلا مجتمعاتها المقموعة. لذلک لا تغضب لإذلالها ولا تتردد في تقبيل يد مذلها..
يغرد ترمب بين آونة واُخرى انه "يحمينا " وان علينا ان "ندفع" لتستمر هذه الحماية !!
—
يحمينا من من ؟ او يحمي من ؟
—
اعتقد ان اكبر خطر يواجه دول الخليج ونفطها هو رئيس مثل ترامب لا يرى فينا غير أبار نفط.
—
استعجب الا يكون لتصريحاته هذه رد فعل رسمي !!
MbS in 2017: we’ll work to have the battle inside Iran... what seemed a bluff back then is a reality now. The tit-for-tat alarm is on! Curious to see how big the response will be
Happy new year to all my Iranian friends, may it be a year full of joy, happiness and success and free of sanctions, threats and wars... May it be a normal year for all!
تعود #الإمارات لواقع المنطقة وملزومات أمنها تارکةً أعواماً من الطموح الإقليمية المخلة بأمنها وأمن جاراتها. الأمل الآن بعودة #السعودية إلی سياسة مبنیة علی الواقع لا الآمال. علينا التعايش في هذه الجغرافيا التي لا تضيق إلا لمن اتّسع خياله علی حساب مقدراته
70%?
Where did you get that from?
Do you think your source is legit?
How legit do you think it is?
Why do you think it’s legit?
When did you start thinking that it’s legit?
Where did it start thinking about it being legit?
Again, do you really think it’s legit?
“
@jrezaian
cherry-picked and ignored the history. Between 1998 and 2005, EU trade with Iran almost tripled & price of oil quintupled. Iran took 70 percent of that hard-currency windfall & invested it in its then-covert nuclear & ballistic missile programs.”
4. To stop the onslaught on Gazans, members of the Axis—in Iraq, Syria, Yemen & Lebanon—have been eager to remind the US of the need to leash Israel. With the rising toll, those actions are to increase & absent a ceasefire, diplomatic channels cannot stymie their broadening.
يريدها نهاية لحماس والمقاومة وهو يدک القطاع ويحتجز الضفة
وتريدها حماس بداية لحرب تحرير وهي توقع بجنوده وآلياته وتستهدف منطلقاته
أيهما ارجح؟ وهل الحسابات علی الورق يمکن أن تترجم علی الارض؟ وما هي حدود معرکة الإرادة؟
الميدان وحده سيجيب عليها والثابتون فيه
Reuters quotes a source as saying Iran is the prime suspect in attacks on oil tankers while the same source says there's no conclusive proof against Tehran.
#Iran
admin spox Nobakht on direct Iran-US talks: Who will we negotiate with? With a person who doesn't have a political & intellectual stability? Now there are no grounds for negotiations with such a person & the public doesn't welcome that.
#DonaldTrump
A big gap between two bodies of elites-with exceptions-regarding Gaza:
1. Western elites expect an end to Hamas and Gaza as an independent entity
2. Arab/Muslim elites expect a game-changing win for Hamas with regional reverberations
Haven't seen such a gap for years
So conventional arms control in the Middle East is not an issue for the Trump admin. What’s important is who have the arms. Having committed war crimes and created the worst humanitarian crisis according to the UN is a secondary issue!
3. Hamas is strong enough. With the battle being managed strongly by Hamas, the Axis of Resistance won’t expand the conflict. The Axis top priority though is Hamas survival-victory. The conflict will widen when Hamas is in jeopardy--not the case for now & quite far-fetched.
Proving wrong Iran’s perception of EU’s global role+defying their own commitments in the JCPOA, the E3 kept showcasing themselves as mediators after US violation of the deal. They are now further downgrading EU’s leverage/power from mediators to appeasers of the bully/violator!
Iran is not likely to abide by Israeli red lines, and to uphold the credibility of its deterrence doctrine, Tehran will feel compelled to retaliate against an Israeli attack.
Misperceptions of Tehran’s true intentions could lead to disaster.
سيغرّد ترمب الصواريخ علی ايران وسيزيد حلفاءه إعادة تغريداته بتعلیقات أشد فتکا منها. و سيجري احتلال ايران عبر تويتر. ورغم دیسلایکات الايرانيون لردع واشنطن، ستُحتل ايران ويُباع شعبها في أسواق النخاسة بأميرکا و أوروبا وغيرها.. وهو مازال يغرّد لا للتفاوض تحت التهديد..
#إيران تستثمر جيدا في اللحظة الراهنة :
- #القدس بوصلة الشعوب فلابد من التركيز ايرانيا على علاقات #السعودية مع #اسرائيل
- المنظمات الدولية ومنظمات حقوق الانسان تطالب بوقف حرب #اليمن وهنا تضع #طهران وقف هذه الحرب كشرط لعودة العلاقة مع #الرياض ، اي تتبنى الهوى الدولي كشرط