“If there was a strategy that I would want to employ right now, if someone put a gun to my head, I’d say simple trend-following strategies. They are not too popular today... They will probably do very well in the next five to 10 years.” —Paul Tudor Jones, May 3, 2022
“Once you decide on your occupation… you must immerse yourself in your work. You have to fall in love with your work. Never complain about your job. You must dedicate your life to mastering your skill. That’s the secret of success… and is the key to being regarded honorably.”
“I see the younger generation hampered by the need to understand and rationalize why something should go up or down. Usually, by the time that becomes self-evident, the move is already over. When I got into the business, there was so little information on fundamentals, and what
“If you put in stops and run your profits and trade randomly you make money; and if you put in targets and no stops and you trade randomly you lose money.”
—David Harding
But you want to analyze inputs as to why price is moving?
Why not just look at the price? Is it moving? Bet off that.
Betting on whether the price is real or not real is irrelevant cause mania or not the price at any given point is 100% real.
Walk into a college classroom and throw this trend following track record down and say, “Let’s discuss. Let’s reverse engineer.” Of course, no university does this. Sucks for the students.
One of the TurtleTraders Howard Seidler:
“You can be following your rules exactly and still lose money. In that situation, you certainly haven’t performed poorly as a trader. The basic idea is that if you follow your rules over the long run, the probabilities will be in your
Some ask: “What is a trend?” One of the best explanations comes from Ed Seykota:
“A trend is a general drift or tendency in a set of data. All measurements of trend involve taking a current reading and a historical reading and comparing them. If the current reading is higher
Elites can try to ban little guys aggregating strategy to take on big funds — forget it. The little guys have seen proof of concept $. Only a matter of time till it’s little guys across the globe aggregating in ways not ban-able. It’s gonna be Whac-A-Mole for established players.
“There are no facts about the future, just opinions. Anyone who asserts with conviction what he thinks will happen in the macro future is overstating his foresight, whether out of ignorance, hubris or dishonesty.”
—Howard Marks
The “Little Book” series wanted to call it “The Little Book of Trend Following.” That would’ve taken away from my first book. Much back and forth until I proposed “Trading.” They accepted.
#trendfollowing
may be philosophically close to perfect, but that doesn’t mean you will have “perfect” performance. Be open to the bucking bronco journey!
No matter how crazy it gets.
No matter how much political screaming.
No matter how contradictory the fundamentals.
No matter how many amazing CVs on X swear they know.
Stop lying to yourself.
The price is the only ****ing truth.