Ferg @trader_ferg Twitter profile

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

8 months

Latest post is up with some thoughts on #uranium and positioning. Link in my bio

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

The millennial 60/40 portfolio appears to be 60% $TSLA 40% $BTC And 100% inability to shut up about them

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Renewables are the socialists in energy They only work part-time and expect the government to support them

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

2 years

The subprime crisis was packaging low-quality assets together and pretending they were high quality. The energy crisis roots lie in building low EROI energy sources and pretending they are high EROI. The latter is far worse since you can’t print your way out of the problem.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Everyones obsessed with physical diet Mental diet never gets mentioned Consuming Netflix, video games, and scrolling social media is the equivalent of sugar & trans fat packed fast food Watch your intake carefully so you don't end up mentally obese and going nowhere in life

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"Commodities are 50% cheaper than their lowest point in 50years and would need to outperform financial assets by over 700% just to reach the long term mean"

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"No amount of evidence will ever convince an idiot." -Mark Twain

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Wokeism is largely a product of easy times and easy money.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Anyone here an ESG consultant? I don't need your help or anything. Just want to remind you that you add nothing to society.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Most people don't actually want millions They just want to be free from bullshit

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Just a friendly reminder Last #uranium bull market there was a 72m lb surplus 5 years out. Not once did the market go into deficit. Now we have somewhere north of 55m lbs in deficit. This time it's a supply story and no short-term spike is going to balance this market.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"Every past market crash looks like an opportunity, but every future market crash looks like a risk" - @morganhousel

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"Ban coal!" You do realise an EV chassis requires 700kgs of met coal. A wind turbine requires 268 tonnes of met coal. Solars cheapness owes a large part to cheap thermal coal in Xinjiang The green transition requires millions of tonnes of steel for which met coal is essential

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Renewables are the socialists in energy They only work part-time and expect the government to support them.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Renewables are the socialists in energy They only work part-time and expect the government to support them.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

"You already know how to get a six-pack, become a better writer, or get rich, all the information for that is available, the only requirement is to do the work" @naval

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Developed countries trying to ban developing countries from using fossil fuels is like pulling the ladder up after you’ve used it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

I've learned the hard way, you're better off not mentioning names you invested in, to friends and family. As they can always copy the investment but never the conviction And having conviction in a volatile stock is everything

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

I'm glad the important shit is getting resolved "Google has removed the egg from its salad emoji in order to make it more inclusive for vegans. Jennifer Daniel, who works as a user experience manager for Google, announced the change on Twitter."

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Current macro view

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

"Every past market crash looks like an opportunity, but every future market crash looks like a risk" - @morganhousel Damn this is good

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Never sit on a loser hoping it gets back to breakeven. Just sell it and put it into something you have conviction in. You don't need to make your money back the way you lost it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Not only are the utilities short uranium. Politicians are short “acceptable”energy. #Uranium wins big on both accounts Get long and stay long. Don’t over think it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

There seems to be a consensus overestimation of what technology has enabled society to achieve and an underestimation of what cheap energy has enabled. Reality is about to correct this misunderstanding.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Picking multi-baggers isn't hard Letting them turn into multi-baggers is

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

People will obsess over sports teams when they could be doing the same with sectors and companies which will directly affect their future. Obsess over things that have the ability to improve the quality of your life.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Most people don't actually want millions They just want to be free from bullshit

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"High oil prices will drive EV adoption" What if battery metals prices rise quicker than oil?

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

A whole generation is about to get educated on the concept of intrinsic value.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

The uranium price is as likely to stop at $60lb as a pendulum is likely to stop in the center mid-swing

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Underappreciated achievements -No boss -No meetings -No schedule -No one needs to contact me urgently -No Linkedin

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

I’m not that smart or insightful. I’m just balls to the wall in a sector that’s entering an epic bull market. So everything I say will be supported by price action. Which will make me seem smart and insightful. #uranium

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

2 years

Black Swan = unpredictable or unforeseen event Grey Swan = significant event whose possible occurrence may be predicted beforehand but probability is considered small Green Swan = predictable event involving fucking up the energy system with low EROI intermittent energy sources

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves. Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit. Yes, you'll miss the top. Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table. Accept it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

The only thing we are on track to reach is “herd stupidity”.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

I get the feeling energy is going to break a lot of things moving forward. It is the thing Central Bankers and Government have no control over. They can manipulate bonds and rates all they like but they can't print oil and gas.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Swedens total deaths

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

If you aren’t comfortable adding to your losers then you need to have a hard conversation with yourself as to why they are still in your portfolio.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

If oil heads north of $150 a barrel would everyone still want a green energy transition? Or would people be more worried about their standard of living and getting cheap energy again? I'm guessing the latter...

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Real resources are becoming increasingly scarce Money is becoming increasingly abundant Position accordingly

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Taking original capital off the table with winners will cost you a lot in the long run Never trim asymmetry Position size correctly then leave it the f #ck alone

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Oil is essential to humanity for the next decade or two minimum. Everything denying this is spin.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Nearly half of the global population is fed by synthetic nitrogen fertilisers (Haber–Bosch process requiring natural gas, coal or fuel oil) Then consider fertilizer accounts for as much as 70% of the production cost of rice & corn Then add harvest, processing, transport, etc

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves. Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit. Yes, you'll miss the top. Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table. Accept it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"If only I had brought Amazon at IPO and held" This close to zero chance you would have stomached the volatility. 1997 share price was $1 1999 = $113 2001 = $5 2006 = $36 2007 = $113 2008 = $51 Stomaching volatility is the price you pay for massive outperformance

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

ⓘ 𝗢𝗳𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝘀𝗼𝘂𝗿𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝗳𝗮𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗺𝗶𝘀𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗱𝗶𝗻𝗴

RNC Research

@RNCResearch

3 years

Biden: "I'm sick of this stuff ... the American people think the reason for inflation is government spending more money. Simply not true!" 🤔

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"Germany to close all 84 of its coal-fired power plants, will rely primarily on Putin for gas and French nuclear"

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Uranium is how you get rich Coal is how you stay rich

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Fertilizer accounts for as much as 70% of the production cost of rice and corn. "The latest surge in fertilizers will raise costs for many farmers in Asia and risks pushing up rice prices in a region where the vast majority of the world’s supply is produced and consumed"

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Sweet baby Jesus Thought they might up it a bit, like $400-500m but $1.3B 🤯 #uranium

UxC

@UxC_Nuclear

3 years

@Sprott Physical Uranium Trust #SPUT has amended its At The Market (ATM) prospectus for up to US$1,300,000,000 of transferable, non-redeemable trust units in Canada. #uranium #nuclearpower

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

If you want to be well rewarded, you have to be early. If you want to be early, you have to be patient. If you want to be patient, you have to have conviction. If you want to have conviction, you have to do the research and stop listening to everyone that hasn't. #uranium

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Europe is going to lose this game of "energy musical chairs" over and over again to the likes of China. China; Locking in 27year Qatar LNG contracts Europe; "we're waiting for legal clarity about how this will impact our decarbonisation goals."

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

5 years

"University degrees are the new taxi medallions." - @naval What else is equally overvalued in society currently?

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

The current US power mix is: ~60% fossil fuels: 25% coal and 35% nat gas. ~20% nuclear ~20% Renewables 7.3% Hydro, 8.4% wind, 2.3% solar and 1.4% biomass. Physically impossible, yet even if wasn't, might pay to observe how Germany and California are going with this plan...

The Hill

@thehill

3 years

President Biden: "We've set a goal that by 2025 our power sector will be free of carbon."

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Accept you’ll be early Accept there will be multiple drawdowns Accept asymmetry is backloaded and it will be a long and volatile ride Accept you’ll get out early having left gains on the table It will all look obvious in hindsight

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

The only thing that socialism will eventually solve in western countries is the obesity crisis

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

2 years

Feels like a good time to get involved in Twitter again now that all the cheerleaders have been carried out.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Knock-on effects of high prices Natural gas -> Fertiliser -> Food -> social stability Oil -> Fucking everything

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves. Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit. Yes, you'll miss the top. Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table. Accept it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Few people have the discipline to exit the party just as the strippers turn up.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Transitory gas plants

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

I swear Dad would have got interested in mowing lawns if I'd decided that was my calling. I hope I can one day be half the father to my children, he has been to me. And simply be interested in whatever makes them happy, whatever that may entail.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Watching supply destruction occur in commodities is like counting cards in blackjack. You may not be able to predict the future but you can have a damn good idea of how much the odds are shifting in your favour over time.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Picking multi-baggers isn't hard Letting them turn into multi-baggers is

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

A history of oil with The Economist covers It's one of the better contrarian indicators Drowning in Oil March 6th, 1999 Oil = $17 barrel Impressive timing.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

2 years

Explain "why EROI matters" to a 10-year-old When energy is plentiful you can use more stuff to make less energy When energy is scarce you must use less stuff to make more energy

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

This is going to age like raw chicken left out in the sun @RemindMe_OfThis 'in a year'

David Hunter

@DaveHcontrarian

3 years

I still think oil & oil stocks are in the process of topping out for the cycle.I see very little upside & lots of downside over the next yr.I expect oil to fall to $25 in next yr's bust.Bonds are poised for a nice rally in coming wks with 10yr yields likely headed for 1.35%-1.40%

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

The millennial 60/40 portfolio appears to be 60% $TLSA 40% $BTC And 100% inability to shut up about them

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Energy return on energy invested Nuclear 100:1 Fossil Fuels 30:1 Wind & solar 1:1 to 4:1 Progress has always occurred by moving up the energy density ladder. Everything else is noise

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

#Uranium spot purchases announcements just keep coming! $YCA require $KAP purchases additional 3.5m lbs $YCA additional 440k lbs + $28m leftover so 1m lbs? $CCJ purchase 10m lbs + $DNN purchase 2.5m lbs $UEC purchase 1.4m lbs $BOE purchase 1.25m lbs $URC purchase 338k lbs $U ??

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Thread “However beautiful the strategy, you should occasionally look at the results.” -Winston Churchill Germany

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Lazy effort but you get the idea $CCJ $4.9B $KAP $4.6B (25%) $NXE $1B $UUUU $526m $DNN $472m $PDN $510m Total approx $12B round to $14B for everything I've left out. So for $14B, you could buy a big chunk of the producers that provide power to 10% of the globe. Crazy

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Down to the lowest cash levels I've had in a long time (2%) So a sharp correction is probably imminent...

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Never sit on a loser hoping it gets back to breakeven. Just sell it and put it into something you have conviction in. You don't need to make your money back the way you lost it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

The energy trade explained Understanding a fruit tree takes 5years to reach production The activists decide fruit is too high in sugar The govt & BlackRock get behind activists They ban planting & encourage cutting down trees Where do you think the price of is fruit going?

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

The current primary energy reality

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Long weekend getaway to west Bali

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Most people don't actually want millions They just want to be free

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

"Renewable energy comes from sources that are not depleted when used but are replenished naturally." I wasn’t aware wind turbines and solar panels were replenished naturally.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Thread There is one attribute I think is hugely underrated. My Dad is the best example of it that I know of which has had a huge effect on the direction of my life.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Shorting is f #cking hard Save yourself a lot of pain and stress and never short stock The time is better spent hunting out multibaggers then letting them run

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Thou shall not Trim a multibagger Rebalance a multibagger Trade around a multibagger You don’t “trim” asymmetry

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

The lower emissions the west has achieved to date are largely due to: -no population growth -low economic growth -outsourcing manufacturing to developing countries -A natural gas glut causing coal to gas switching ESG has achieved absolutely f #ckall in emissions reduction.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Most people don't actually want millions They just want to be free

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Tina will eventually force global policymakers to embrace nuclear as the only viable solution. Tina = There is no alternative #uranium

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Everyones obsessed with physical diet Mental diet never gets mentioned Consuming Netflix, video games, and scrolling social media is the equivalent of sugar & trans fat packed fast food Watch your intake carefully so you don't end up mentally obese and going nowhere in life

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Toyota President Akio Toyoda said Japan would run out of electricity in the summer if all cars were running on electric power. The infrastructure needed to support a fleet consisting entirely of EVs would cost Japan between ¥14 & ¥37 trillion, the equivalent of $135B to $358B

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Watching supply destruction occur in commodities is like counting cards in blackjack. You may not be able to predict the future but you can have a damn good idea of how much the odds are shifting in your favour over time.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Few charts to explain why I'm a huge oil bull over the next few years. The trajectory of oil supply declines(ESG continues to make it steeper) Even the @IEA sustainable development demand forecast is still a lot higher than supply Let alone if assume ~1% historic demand growth

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

"Successful trading is like getting pregnant. Everyone congratulates you on it but no one asks you how many times you got fucked first" @Trader_Dante

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

The subprime crisis was packaging low-quality assets together and pretending they were high quality. The energy crisis roots lie in building low EROI energy sources and pretending they are high EROI. The latter is far worse since you can’t print your way out of the problem.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

The look of joy as he no longer has to listen to me carry on about how undervalued energy companies are here.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Uranium is actually my second favorite commodity. My first is time.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

S&P 500 Energy weights 1980 = 27% 1999 = 5% 2009 = 14% 2020 = 3% “Rule No. 1: Most things will prove to be cyclical. – Rule No. 2: Some of the greatest opportunities for gain and loss come when other people forget Rule No. 1.” -Howard Marks

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

1 year

Revisited the coal thesis today. You can find a link to it in my description.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

4 years

Oil is essential to humanity for the next decade or two minimum. Everything denying this is spin.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

$ARKK

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

Believing you'll know the exact moment to take your chips off the table in a bull market is the biggest lie we tell ourselves. Gradually scaling out is the only practical way to exit. Yes, you'll miss the top. Yes, you'll leave a lot of gains on the table. Accept it.

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Ferg

@trader_ferg

3 years

I worked for a summer as a barman in a French Chateau Before every party night, we would ask all the female guests to coordinate the use of hair straighteners & hairdryers as otherwise, it would blow fuses Never worked It's a decent analogy for EVs and the state of the US grid

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