If you thought Russia controlling 5% of
#oil
exports was a threat to global stability, wait until you find out who controls 90% of the critical rare earth elements needed for EVs and solar panels.
Gas is $5 a gallon, 10 year old Honda Civics cost $20k, suburban middle class homes cost half a mil and rent is $2,000 a month
Hope the $3k in stimmy checks was worth it
Friendly reminder: if you're under the age of 55, you should welcome a bear market like a gift from the gods.
It never feels like it at the time, but bear markets are when fortunes are made.
Assuming you aren't gambling with options, leverage or total shitco's, there's no
Not sure who needs to hear this, but…
When one of the largest globally systemic banking institutions gets bought in a last minute fire sale at less than 20% tangible book value, that is not bullish.
$tsla burned $2.5 billion of cash in a single quarter. That’s a stunning reversal of the cash flow windfall it earned during the pandemic years.
Welcome to the auto business, where excess capacity and waning demand can turn your cash flow statement and balance sheet upside
1/ Energy investors should be fearful, not greedy about $120+
#oil
...
Of course, I love a good
#oil
bull market. But there’s a big difference between a healthy bull market and a destructive one. We're clearly headed for the latter.
Here's why...
The U.S. govt has looted the strategic petroleum reserve to artificially lower
#oil
prices ahead of mid-term elections.
Now at the lowest levels since 1985.
Good thing there's no geopolitical hot spots that could threaten global energy supplies amirite?
Powell presser takeaway: we're giving up on the inflation fight and QT because there's an election to win and $2T+ perpetual budget deficits to finance.
If you don't own assets, you lose.
Sorry, poors.
So apparently Musk claims Reuters is “lying” by citing multiple internal sources that the Model 2 plans were shelved
Maybe he’s right. Maybe Reuters fabricated these sources from whole cloth.
Or, maybe the guy who faked the largest corporate buyout in history is not being
Buying $AAPL at 35x earnings on the hope that consumers - the same ones getting crushed by a cost of living crisis, cutting discretionary spending on everything from $SBUX coffee to $MCD burgers - would embark on an historic upgrade cycle for $1100 iPhones because of AI Siri
Interesting that after a sharp spike higher this morning, Apple's stock has now rolled over and is down on the day. From Verizon's Q2 earnings report presentation this morning: "Consumer Wireless equipment revenue was $4.1 billion, down 6.5% year over year, driven primarily by a
I hate to break it to you, but interest rates are only half of the equation in mortgage affordability. The other half, of course, is the price of a home... which is at all time highs.
As a result, housing affordability has never been lower.
The idea that you should overpay
I hate to break this news to you, but …
Today's mortgage interest rates are historically normal.😖
From 1971 to 2015, mortgage interest rates ranged from 4.6 percent to 16.6 percent.
During the majority of those years, average rates spanned 6 to 10 percent.
Today's interest
This is quite a chart showing a 2008-style collapse in household net worth.
Can someone please explain how this is possible with stocks and real estate prices hovering near all time highs?
$TSLA now down 60% as the Nasdaq breaks out to new all time highs
It never was a tech stock
Now it’s not even a growth stock
Just a regular auto company, on its way to trading at regular auto company multiples of 8x earnings
Crazy idea
#2
Yes? No? Why?
Take a loan $100,000
Sell 19x 33DTE 20 delta puts of $SOXL
Collect $4,110
With 20 delta there should be ~80% win rate
Sell 10 times get 2 assignments
After assignment and whatever drop is, sell 20 delta calls
Roll up and out as required
For those claiming "Markets are forward looking and pricing in improving fundamentals"
Allow me to present a short story in two charts...
Part 1: $AAPL 2023 ESP estimates have done nothing but decline since last October
What if I told you that rampant accounting chicanery has inflated mega-cap tech earnings by the largest degree in modern history? And that if you price these companies on a free cash flow basis, they're more expensive than what we saw at the peak of the Dot Com mania?
Consider
$TSLA price cutting helped move volume, at the expense of collapsing margins across the board.
Congratulations, $TSLA longs, you now own a traditional automaker competing on price at the expense of profitability
Far too much focus on Musk paying $250k to keep the SpaceX flight attendant quiet.
The actual amount he was willing to pay to kill this story (and others like it) is $44B.
It's very simple. If you're still bullish here, you're ignoring the three golden rules of not getting your ass handed to you in financial markets...
1) Don't fight the Fed (tightest Fed in two generations)
2) Price over news. Stocks ignore bad news in bull markets and they
Don’t look now, but the St Louis Fed just forecasted a negative GDP print for Q2
Anyone remember the last time a new bull market started with this trend in GDP growth?
$QQQ down 2% overnight as bull market gurus discover the concept of "priced in" peak cycle earnings
Next up: macro tourists will baghold citing low employment and strong GDP
Fun fact: The Nasdaq lost 40% of its value in Q2 2000 with nominal GDP running at over 7% and
When investors paid 35x sales for the dominant tech infrastructure company powering the internet boom, $CSCO, in June 2000, you went down 60% and then spent the next two decades breaking even
As for me, I'll buy $NVDA puts at 35x sales
My money will probably see you in hell
@TheStalwart
A pointless question.
The real question: what happens to economic growth if every single small business owner is plagued with a tax bill that requires them to liquidate their assets to pay each year?
$TSLA bulls are baffled that the stock can drop 12% even with "deliveries growing by 40%"
They can't fathom that the stock was priced for literally taking over the entire global auto market. It's not about the delivery miss, it's about the dissolution of the entire narrative
$TSLA out with the triple-miss
Revenues, EPS and gross margins all disappoint
And that's despite analysts taking a chainsaw to their estimates over the last 12 months
My $100 price target for 2024 appears too high
Everyone's an environmentalist until it means lagging the S&P 500
"BlackRock has opted to liquidate a multi-strategy fund overseen by two veteran investors after struggling to amass sufficient assets since its launch three-and-a-half-years ago."
Can anyone remember the last time a cutting-edge "technology" company disrupting the legacy dinosaurs in its industry was forced to slash prices 6 times in a single year?
The only thing $TSLA is winning is the race to the bottom in profit margins
Oh you thought $IWM rallying 10% in 6 days was a healthy rotation to broaden out market breadth? Nope. Just another record call buying spree, this time in small caps.
For a preview of what comes next, simply refer to the $QQQ price action today. Anyone remember the record
There was just a record amount of call buying in $IWM
This happened just after the record call buying in $NDX, which sent tech flying
Is a small cap mania about to begin now?
Chart: Goldman Sachs
GLJ calls out the absurdity of $TSLA opex falling by over 20% despite the highest auto supply chain inflation in over 40 years.
The company that hand builds cars in a tent has suddenly become the most efficient automaker on Earth.
Nothing to see here.
RIP “oversold bounce” bros and bull market Furus buying the generational dip while quoting Buffett and citing the CNN fear and greed index (lol)
You don’t unwind the greatest equity bubble since 1999 with a 6% decline folks
It gets worse from here
You know how I know the market hasn't bottomed yet?
Because $800 billion corporations are posting 10% daily gains on Wall Street shill reports of $500B TAMs for non-existent business lines.
For future reference to all $TSLA investors, when you question how shares could fall 75% even as the company continues delivering 50% annual revenue growth...
The reality now made clear in $TSLA's financial statements is the company lacks a meaningful moat against its
$TSLA down 7% today as the market finally comes to grip with the unavoidable reality that Tesla is just another automaker, not a "tech company"
Exhibit A: $TSLA operating margins, which have nearly been cut in half from 17.2% to 9.6% over the last four quarters
Lawrence Fields : "Actually, no one can see a bubble. That's what makes it a bubble."
Michael Burry : "That's dumb, Lawrence. There are always markers. $TSLA - it's up 10x since last November, and it still raises money every quarter because its a cash-burning shitco."
Fun fact: a doctor I know is all-in on $SMCI and the AI revolution. Here's the history...
He was all-in on tech stocks in 1999
Bought condos in the mid-2000s
Capitulated on longs near the lows in December 2018
Teslas greatest competitive advantage has been to create a fan base so deeply committed to the religion of the share price, that they can take a 10 minute staged video and extrapolate it into hundreds of billions of dolllars of future market value over the next decade…
Great write up, especially relevant to all long term retail investors. Buy $TSLA and hold for at least 7-10 years. The opportunity here is truly astounding.
Now that we know $arkk is the “biggest bag of odorous excrement ever assembled in the history of capitalism”, what are the odds Cathie and crew were right about $tsla?
$SPX is expected to report a Y/Y earnings decline of -6.8% for Q2 2023, which would be the largest decline since Q2 2020 (-31.6%).
#earnings
,
#earningsinsight
,
Congrats $aapl beat watered down analyst guidance.
Still paying 30x earnings for a company with negative earnings and sales growth
What could go wrong?
How can we justify a 10-year Treasury yield of 1.5% with inflation running well over 5%?
The answer: producer inflation running even hotter.
When producers can't pass inflation to consumers, deflation is coming.
That's the bet Mr. Bond Market is making.
This is how automakers go bankrupt... failure to correctly anticipate demand, leading to excess production capacity and unsold inventory.
Slowly, and then suddenly, $TSLA is careening towards gaping holes in its cash flow statement and balance sheet.
Austin, we have a problem. Literally a graveyard of unsold Tesla sedans and Cybertrucks parked at vacated Chesterfield Mall in St. Louis. Reeks of death.
To summarize AI day...
$TSLA spent 6 months building a rudimentary robot that Boston Dynamics had 10 years ago, plus a Powerpoint with 3-d renderings of things that don't exist yet.
$TSLA's firing spree spreading across virtually all geographic regions, pulling back on key growth initiatives across the board except the robotaxi stock pump (lol), and now liquidating land reserved for future super-charging locations.
Why does a company that reported $26
Friendly reminder: $MSFT and $AAPL make up 30% of the Nasdaq and trade at their highest valuation levels since the Dot Com bubble.
$AAPL is 5 quarters into a revenue recession and the AI hype narrative underpinning $MSFT just imploded
Lots of luck $QQQ bulls!
OpenAI co-founder and President Greg Brockman said he's departing from the maker of generative artificial intelligence tools just hours after the board pushed out Chief Executive Officer Sam Altman. 😳
$MSFT
Via
@DeepStrikes
Woah. Missed this last night. Just Elon Musk casually explaining that $TSLA has to literally solve artificial intelligence to actually make good on his full self driving promises. In other words, it was all bullshit from the beginning, and will likely never happen.
@teslaownersSV
@TheRealKeean
We have to solve a huge part of AI just to make cars drive themselves.
In retrospect, it was inevitable. The road system is designed for cameras (eyes) & neural nets (brains).
TFW $aapl is putting up negative revenue growth in a 5% inflation environment, and bulls bid it to new all time highs on a $3,500 VR headset announcement to price shares at a 30x multiple heading into a recession
Or... now check this out... he's distracting you from the fact that $TSLA has underspent on new model development, has zero product pipeline, and thus will never justify a valuation implying total domination of the global auto industry, and thus needs a new narrative for fanboyz.
I'm old enough to remember the last time it was a "new bull market," announced by virtually every pundit and media outlet across the board, including the Wall Street Journal in August 2022.
Over the next two months, the Nasdaq fell by 23%.
Local man in the arena confuses beating the "End Boss" with margin-destroying price cuts.
$TSLA has massively under-invested in R&D to create artificially high profit margins in recent years. The company hasn't introduced any new models in 5 years, allowing a flood of legacy
I was shocked when I saw this chart.
The speed and aggressiveness with which $TSLA is cutting prices is the way to beat the End Boss.
(Rapidly increasing price affordability) x (constantly improving hardware and software) = super maximized market demand
This is a lethal
State of America:
$TSLA charges thousands of dollars for non-existent full self driving vehicles since 2016 = perfectly fine.
$MCD occasionally turns off the McFlurry machines = full blown FTC investigation.
If you ever wondered why
@McDonalds
McFlurry machines are often out of order, you're not alone.
The FTC also wants to know why the fast food chain’s ice cream machine always seems to be broken.
ISRAELI DEFENCE MINISTER GALLANT: “WE WILL CHANGE REALITY ON THE GROUND IN GAZA FOR THE NEXT 50 YEARS. WHAT WAS BEFORE, WILL BE NO MORE. WE WILL OPERATE AT FULL FORCE”
In today's edition of "nothing matters" $TSLA stonk breaking out to new highs while 2023 earnings estimates make new lows
This isn't a bull market; it's a nihilistic market
Our ancestors will struggle to believe an entire generation bid up worthless shit-coins to a $2 trillion market capitalization... fortunately, we've created real-time documentation of the degeneracy via $TWTR
$PTON went from "disruptor, SAAS margins and infinite TAM" to a shitty hardware company with no moat and no growth in 12 months. First 9 months was a slow burn of smart money cashing out and baggies dip buying, followed by 3 months of sheer capitulation.
$TSLA longs take note.