Global_Macro @Marcomadness2 Twitter profile

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

27 days

The Yen Carry trade unwind is far from over, with total net Yen shorts being barely covered

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

5 months

Why is it that CPI is exactly following the 1970s?

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The rent "deflation" is here

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The bear market ain’t over until EPS says so

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The PEG Ratio

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

This is not a liquidity-driven rally

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

A wild prediction is that inflation is going to crash in 23. But the model estimates are based off commodity and energy forward curves that are prone to liquidity risks. If inflation does crash, it is not necessarily a good thing for stocks because margins will crash.

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The scariest chart; liquidity issues in Treasuries

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The dollar is undoing the Fed's tightening campaign which could lead to more rate hikes down the road if inflation stays too high

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

3 years

The balance sheets of the 4 major central banks keep expanding while inflation rises. This phase of monetary expansion was uniquely focused on offsetting the loss of demand, and why QE and inflation are more closely linked than pre-pandemic @lisaabramowicz1 @tomkeene

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Previous spikes in interest rates saw periodical declines following. But spikes pre-70s/80s were closer to the historical mean of 7% rather than sub-5 % in 2022...

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

PCE inflation is slowing but the food component is running at a 15% annualized clip. No inflation relief

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

25 days

The most modest widening in High Yield spreads in the history of VIX spikes

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The immaculate disinflation

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Enter the Mike Wilson zone

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Credit is coming due

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

5 months

Why is it that PPI is exactly following the 1970s?

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

5 months

@CybrKup love it, "radical" lol -- here is the one axis version

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

@FerroTV It sort of looks like a repeat of 2000: post-peak, S&P was also down 17% but within the index significant damage

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

26 days

Levered funds are still massively short of the Yen, and asset managers are substantially long of the Nasdaq. With no liquidity in August, the market stays in a forced buying and forced selling pattern

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

3 years

it sounds cliché but all speculative assets that performed so well in the pandemic--SPACs, IPOs, Stay at Home Baskets and Bitcoin---peaked around the same time that US M2 Y/Y growth rate peaked and rolled over ---classic anticipation of liquidity retrenchment in the future

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The Shanghai gridlock -- will ripple to all major ports globally

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

A monster yield curve steepening ahead

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

24 days

The BOJ struck the "Yen put," and the Nikkei will be driving the Nasdaq and S&P to their pre-selloff levels

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

25 days

The recession fears based on the Sahm rule could be questioned

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

Carry trades, rolling over..

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

3 years

Cash is an asset again: T-bills a year from today are getting closer to the S&P's dividend yield (%)

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 years

@CountyofLA @lapublichealth If restaurants adhere to social distancing, masks and other guidelines, why should they close. especially when they may not be the source of the spread? Instead, the majority of spreads happens at indoor, private gatherings. Set higher restrictions on those activities.

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 months

The yield curve is steepening for fiscal reasons, not rate cut reasons

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

slowly, the Japanese supertanker of buying Treasuries is turning in a different direction with consequences for global interest rates

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

@AyeshaTariq uh uh---based on my daily basic food/transport expenditures, I estimate inflation running annualized at 17% in NYC.

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 month

The Yen Carry Funded Semi Trade

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

11 months

High Yield spreads are tighter than the Credit Default Swaps. This does not happen often and it has been a signal for a correction in spreads

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

7 months

The Fed is now tighter than the market

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

You could conclude that China tech and ARKK were in a Nasdaq 2000-style bubble. A counter-bear rally is underway and may add 10 to 15% gains (oval), after which the second leg of the bear market happens. If the 2000 story holds though, there will be a significant recovery by 2024

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

3 years

ZEW survey inflation expectations dropped sharply. First time a survey now too views inflation as transitory

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Yen and US 10-year: 1 for 1 which means a 3% 10-year fairly soon, could see the Yen test 130

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The balance sheet of the Bank of Japan is approaching 140% of GDP, setting up the potential for the largest QT of all times

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

"Don't shoot the M2 messenger." @carlquintanilla Money growth running negative Y/Y, the first time in the history of money, at least since the 1980s @CNBCOvertime

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

5 months

The Yen Carry trade is massive as seen from Japanese foreign portfolios around $4 trillion. The unwind of this could be violent

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

@GRDecter The evolution of the debt ceiling; the sky is the (debt) limit

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 months

Corporate net interest is lower than government net interest payments, even though corporate yields are higher than Treasury yields @biancoresearch

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 years

@ScottGottliebMD If people keep wearing masks and socially distance with discipline and consistency, more than half of this crisis gets resolved

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

China's CDS is back at the 2020 pandemic high due to the shutdown. Yuan (CNH) has yet to revisit the same 2020 highs, and EM spreads lag the move in China's CDS. The risk remains high for more dislocation in EM

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 months

The return of the "controversial chart": why does CPI follow the 1970s with a last mile of disinflation?

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

In Brazil, real rates are at 9.8% and are that restrictive, there is scope for the Real to rally

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 years

@TheStalwart Interestingly Joe, the four sectors that "carry" the economy--Big Tech, Internet, Pharma and Healthcare--are all trading with a V-shape. Suggests a new economy at work that can recover faster and with a V-shape. Best, Ben

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The largest dislocation between ISM services prices and core PCE services since GFC. A likely effect of higher and stickier wages

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The inflation expectations break out

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The yield curve is "bull steepening" because the market expects the Fed to reverse course in the future, and why the 2Y yield is down. But the curve is also "bear flattening" in 3M/10Y because right now the Fed cannot abandon the fight against inflation @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

China's consumer confidence plunged to a record low, and youth unemployment hit a record high. A challenge for China to meet its growth target of 5.5%

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 months

House prices in China are falling much faster than in the US during the '05-'08 crisis

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The gap between the VIX Put-call volume and CBOE Put-call ratio is the widest since 2006, the predawn of a major volatility spike

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The Yen hitting new highs, and is now leading interest rate volatility

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Sentiment and positioning diverge which could lead to a significant change in either if the S&P 500 breaks out decisively higher

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

And the default cycle has begun

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

leverage is coming out of the markets, which can accelerate downside risks first before there is a healthier balance in market positioning

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Financial conditions are crossing the zero line where the Fed comes out with significant hawkish rhetoric. But resistance is there to be broken and the more hawkish the Fed, the more financial conditions rise above the zero resistance line @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @FerroTV

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The VIX volume spike: someone is betting on something bigger by September

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

It is true that ISM services new orders index is in recession territory. But it is also true they came from a record high in ‘21 never reached before because of the pandemic. Latest drop caused by real estate due to high rates caused by the pandemic. False recession dawn or real?

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

another extreme: the crack spread. Gasoline vs. crude shows the extent of how restrained the refinery of oil is at this moment. A major impulse to US domestic inflation

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The "bad news is good news" is just a psychological narrative. Earnings have been better than expected but the "bad news" is that negative surprises are rising while positive surprises are falling. The rally is a bear market bounce @FerroTV @lisaabramowicz1 @kaileyleinz

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The China reopening is the macro event of 2023 with implications for the flow of money and credit, potentially setting up the next phase of risk-on markets in H2 (graph courtesy of @AndreasSteno )

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Liquidity turns the machines back on. When liquidity returns, so will speculative fever through IPOs, SPACs, and so forth

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 month

The yield curve is steepening like it is 2007 when no one thought the US economy was in a recession

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

Markets are decoupled from liquidity that may not expand much further, leading to a near-term recoupling @NewEdgeWealth

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The return of the delinquency problem

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The gaping gap between Nowcasting CPI and the market @tomkeene @lisaabramowicz1 @kaileyleinz

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The effect of unwinding QE; rising bankruptcies ( @torstenslok )

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Speaking of "behind the curve." UK inflation is about to get out of control and the BOE is miles and miles behind. How can investors be thinking of a pivot with inflation at these levels?

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The Japanese 2Y yield is positive and negative yields are extinguished. Bond markets are saying that deflation is something of the past

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The credit crunch is definitely happening, and it is happing right now

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

Tech is back

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Earnings growth is rolling over and is putting the recent rally under scrutiny

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The next phase is the Japanese taper which may cause tantrums elsewhere

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

Positioning in Treasuries is getting extremer ahead of next week's big 10Y and 30Y auctions

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

10 months

The Sahm Rule and the Yield Curve: when steepening meets a recession trigger @Claudia_Sahm

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Japan has finally sticky inflation

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

The 1Y Treasury note is approaching 5%. Its volatility is below 1%. "Cash" has now a positive Sharpe Ratio

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

4 months

Moderate downside CPI 'surprise' but the super core continues to rise

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

Capitulating bears on what looks likely a very soft CPI print

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The calm before the storm

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

7 months

Financial conditions back into peak/bubble territory

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The curious case of banks tapping the Fed for emergency liquidity and the S&P in a full-blown risk-on

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

Liquidity has not mattered to markets this year until it does

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

The Yen Carry trade favors the spicy Mexican Peso

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

11 months

@fundstrat @UAW Still trading like it is 2021

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

22 days

Whenever the 10Y yield deviates from the forward rate, yields get pulled back up; 10Y may go back to 4.25%-4.5%

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

2 years

Treasury yields are rapidly converging above the Fed's median dot for next year, while expectations of the Funds rate are above 3%. Even though it looks that yields may have overshot, they may in fact not be at a "fair level" that is higher at 3 to 3.5%.

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Global_Macro

@Marcomadness2

1 year

20% of the $1.2 trillion Inflation Reduction Act has been spent so far and it is having an impact on productivity and manufacturing. Given no fiscal retrenchment for the next year, IRA can add to GDP despite strikes and shutdowns